The U.S. Economy: Stand by for more worse news

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Brian Foley, Nov 28, 2010.

  1. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,738
    Yes Billy is a stalwart. Always worth listening to.
    But anyone predicting the future of the world economy must be prepared for being proved wrong by events.

    Myself, I predicted a decline in the value of stocks and shares a year ago,
    based on undue optimism about recovery.
    I was right about the undue confidence in recovery,
    but wrong about stock prices.
    I can't understand their resilience in the face of repeated bad news.

    My prediction is a large fall any time soon.
    So, based on my track record buy! buy! buy!
     
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  3. Pinwheel Banned Banned

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    Stocks to crash end Jun- end July. Then QE3 baby!
     
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  5. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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  7. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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    20,285
    Thank the Gods we bailed out the Banksters.

    It all clear to me: We had to save defunct incompetent Banks from going bust and filling for Bankruptcy because if we didn't give crooked incompetent Banking CEOs hundreds of billions of dollars then .... Civilization itself (in one forum members words) would have "Collapsed" and we'd right now, in 2011, be living in the Dark Ages, pointing at fire and muttering Ugg while munching on road kill. Oh, and most of humanity would probably have perished.

    Not only did we have to bail these incompetent psychopaths out, we need Obama to hire most of them into his "team" to "help" Americans. We need to make sure they're even Bigger than To Big to Fail. What we do not need to do is prosecute a single Bankster.


    Thank the Gods for the Bankers.
    Our Saviour.
    Thank the Gods.




    According to Morgan Stanley, and as I specifically stated in another post last week: Half of Last Month's New Jobs Came from a Single Employer McDonald's.


    MarketWatch




    Funny enough, the only person as of late I am truly cheering on is, of all people, Colonial Gaddafi. Ever since I read he put on contracts on those evil f*ckwhits Tony Blaire (who started working for BJ Morgan days after ending his job as PM) and Lloyd Blankfein (GoldmanSux CEO) I've been cheering for his victory.
    Go Gaddafi!!

    Sure, one would have hoped, oh I don't know, perhaps the POTUS, Obama might have stood up to these crooks and prosecuted these criminals ruining our Republic. But its pretty hard to prosecute people you're in the pocket of like Obama is.
     
  8. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198

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    Like Billy T, I foresee what is coming and can't bear to look. (Kiss your ass.ets goodby.)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 16, 2011
  9. adam2314 Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    409
    So Billy T.

    If you are correct in your predictions.. ( and I for one do not disbelieve you )..

    Where does one put ones money ??

    Gold ??.

    Silver ??.

    Food ??.

    Electric cars ??.

    Weapons ??.

    The world will still keep revolving..

    What is your opinion as to how the man in the street is best able to come through all of the up coming turmoil ??..
     
  10. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    Blue is two days later by edit How to & help on getting a job in China (or even in USA with company doing business in China):

    "... An increasing number of foreign students are coming to China for internship to build up their credentials for future hunt for jobs. Thanks to his six-month internship in China, Luke Saunders from the United States, made it into the Boeing US-China Bilateral Trade Internship Program in Washington, D.C. "The internship helped my resume a lot," the 25-year-old graduate who has a degree in International Studies and a minor in Chinese told China Daily. "The employer sees my experience in China and asks me to join the program."

    During internship, Saunders worked at a Shanghai trade company which helps foreign firms, especially African ones, do business in China, engaging in marketing, preparing proposals for potential customers, and attending social networking events. He took on the internship after finishing an intensive language class at Capital Normal University in Beijing. Before coming to China, he had taken Chinese lessons for several years in the US, as well as multiple courses on Chinese literature, culture, politics and business.
    Saunders is among an increasing number of foreign graduates who found internship through Uoutlook Education Company.

    "The application for internship here is increasing recent years, as US economic outlook is gloomy and more American companies are looking to the Chinese market," said Fu Qiang, its program director. ..."
    From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2011-06/21/content_12745655.htm
    BILLY T COMMENT: Saunders is smart and able to foresee where the future is.
    I'm not sure there is a good answer now that the dollar has already lost a lot of its value.

    Currently the dollar will only buy 1.5915 Brazilian Real. When I moved here I got more than four Real for each dollar. Quite a few years ago, I told all who read my post to buy ADRs of solid companies in Brazil and India, but think it too late for that now.

    If I were young single English speaker with good education I would either move to India or take intensive course in Mandarin and then move to China and when there keep my opinions about personal freedoms etc. to myself. Best in both options is to get job as rep for an international company before moving.

    If an “old fart” like me and stuck in the USA, perhaps move to very small village in low population area, learn how to fish, farm and hunt. (Don’t be sporting about it, set traps, etc.) Your house gun should be a modern pistol or two.

    Be generous with your new neighbors - do them favors like tune their car, fix their roof, cut some fire wood for them, what ever you can do - you are a stranger / an outsider / you need them to like and accept you.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Jun 21, 2011
  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    23,198
    "... The monthly jobs gain over the past six months has averaged 155,000 -- just barely enough to break even (150,000 is "break even").

    The number of able-bodied working-age people who are employed -- is now just 58%, down from 63% a few years ago and an average of 62% over the past 20 years. A lot of people who could be working aren't, either because they've given up looking for a job or have gone back to school to wait out the recession Once the economy perks up, many of these folks will re-enter the job market, effectively adding more "new" workers to the 150,000-per-month already entering from population growth.

    Bottom line: Job growth could surge without putting a dent in the unemployment rate. Last week, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke said, "We're still years away from full employment." He's almost certainly right. ..." From: http://www.fool.com/investing/gener...f-preview-the-future-of-jobs-and-housing.aspx

    Billy T comment: Don't expect much of a home market recovery until the "not-working but should be" can find a job.
     
  12. X-Man2 We're under no illusions. Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    403
    There will be another fairly large load of people from the State of Indiana soon to be trying to enter the workforce.Indiana recently passed a law allowing all those with non violent misdemeanor and class D felony's to petition the courts for their conviction records to be cleared.One must have stayed out of trouble for 8 years to petition the court.The courts MUST grant all who petition.So in other words when all these past convicted people apply for jobs and the employer checks their backgrounds they will come back clean.Of course any police running your record will still see your real record.

    I'm thinking this law being passed may have more to do with so many not being able to get jobs and landing on welfare which cost Indiana big.
     
  13. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    23,198
    The Labor Department reported that Nonfarm Payrolls, which is one of the most closely followed gauges regarding the state of the economy at the present time, rose in the month of June by just 18,000. This was far below the consensus estimates for an increase of 94,000.

    The May totals were revised lower to a total of +25K from +54K. The nation’s Unemployment Rate was rose to 9.2%,

    From: http://www.topstockportfolios.com/r.../1/0/fb46d3b8193a7900fc30b85582cf30b958607ad5
     
  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    The employment numbers reported today were disappointing. There was nothing encouraging in the numbers. However, they are not as bad as they are being protrayed. It is no suprise that the economy slowed last quarter in response to developments abroad and domestically. So some of this should have been expected.

    I think what makes these numbers so suprising is the EDP jobs report that was released yesterday which had a distinct bullish flavor in the numbers.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/markets/economic-calendar/

    I think it is unwise to read too much into one data set. At the moment we are getting conflicting reports on employment. And it is not uncommon for the employment number that was released today be signficantly revised in the following months. Over the long term I expect we should get more clarity on the true employment situation.
     
  15. JJM Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    364
    Howdy....Hello....I'm sure you know the difference, then why do you act that way? 1) American Capitalism is in no way or form like the EU. We don't want to be. Even though we have some Socialists 'etc' as rulers, the public stands on its' own two feet. The government is for the people. The people are not for the government to control or design. 2) America has undergone some very drastic variation ever since the demos/status quo reps took control of Congress in 2007. That is the source and the continuing problem. Even though the "Tea Party" Conservatives have now a partial control, with the majority of The House of Rep. They are not rescinding Obummers programs and because of that they are supporting them expo facto. 3) We have an immense amount of gangsterism, corruption and graft in all aspects of the economy. That has been allowed to exist because the politicians are a part of it. Maybe? the next election will put a halt to the madness. 4) It is only monies from the private market that pays for all aspects of government. In the form of taxes. Government employess actually don't pay taxes, they just shuffle monies back to where they recieved it in the first place. It is not 'new' money. So here in is a problem, through gangsters, liberal socialists/communists, expensive benefits were/are given to the unions and all government employees. More monies that the general private market, that must now pay for all of their retirement, etc. must pay and we can't afford it. To help fiscal responsibility I would think that all governement/union/etc., except military, have their monies equal the mean average of the private market and the difference placed into the Treasurary.
     
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    You have some very confused and disturbed thinking going on there friend. First capitalism is capitalism regardless of where in the world it occurs. As proof, I suggest you visit the local dictionary. If none are present, go to the nearest library.

    Two, we are supposed to have a government which is of and for the people. The reality is we have a government of and for the special interests that dominate and lead our political leaders in Washington and the state houses across the nation. It has nothing to do with socialism, communism or whatever other "ism" the right wing is pushing these days.

    You are correct in that there is a lot of "legal" corruption in Washington and our political leaders are very much a part of it. The only way to fix that problem is to amend our Constitution that makes elections publically funded and imposes ethical restraints on elected officials. Few are talking about such change because it would have a profound effect on American politics and give control of our government back to the people of this nation. Unfortunately no election will cause an end to the madness unless and until we change the way we elect our public officials with a Constitutional amendment.

    Three all money comes from the United States government. If you doubt that, pull out a dollar bill and see the name printed on the bill. It isn't your name nor mine. Frankly your discussion about public employees paying taxes is not germane to anything. I think you are trying to say that the nation needs a healthy private sector in order to be a thriving society. And if that is what you are trying to say, then you are correct. But demonizing public servants is just plain silly and not relevant to the issues at hand. Demonizing government works well for the demagogues (Republican/Tea Party), but it does nothing to solve the problems the nation now faces.

    The nation faces a number of fiscal problems but none of them are the direct result of regular non-elected government employees nor are they the result of public employee unions - and I am no fan of public employee unions. I have some horror stories I can tell. But they are not the source of our current fiscal problems. If you fall for this red herring, the special interests that are now screwing you and the rest of the nation are delighting and profiting from your error.

    The fiscal problems our nation faces are the direct result of the actions of elected officials at both the federal and state levels of government and the special interest money that has caused them to act in the interests of the few monied interests rather than the public interest.

    And if you think our current fiscal problems began in 2007 when the Dems took control of the House, then you clearly have not been paying attention. When the last Democrat president left office, he left a budget surplus and projected surpluses for decades to come. It was the Republican congress, including current leadership, that spent like druken sailors when they controlled all branches of government. It was that government that steadfastly refused to pay for their spending and put it all on the national credit card.

    It was the Republican congress and the Republican president that more than doubled the national debt in the 8 years they controlled government. Your good buds the Republicans took the nations debt to the highest levels it has seen since WW II when they controlled all three branches of government in the preceeding administration. Please note it is the "fiscally irresponsible" Democrats who have decreased the nation's debt relative to GDP and Republicans have run it up (for periods since 1977). To say that Republicans are anything close to being fiscally responsible is like saying the moon is made of cheese. It just is not so. And unfortunately even now with Republicans mouthing fiscally responsibility, their actions to date have been anything but fiscally responsible.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_debt_by_U.S._presidential_terms#Gross_federal_debt

    The most offensive and damaging spending resulted from the following Republican actions:

    - starting and mismanaging and not funding 2 wars costing more than a trillion dollars (2001 to present)
    - tax cuts primarily for the wealthy without corresponding spending cuts (2001 - present)
    - the largest entitlment expansion since the creation of Medicare more than 50 years ago (2003 - present)
    - failure to regulate the financial industry (2001-2010) This was plugged with the legislation enacted by Democrats
    - the great recession (2007 - 2010)
    - TARP (2008)
    - Auto Industry bailout (2008-2009)

    The hannities, limbaughs, becks, levins of the world like to get people like you all fired up with big words like communism, socialism, facism, marxism, liberals, etc. so that you will not think...only act based on what they tell you.

    When you pull back the covers and look at reality, it is far different from what you are being told. You want to inject a little fear in the life of those that corrupt our society, then start educating yourself - find the truth don't just blindly do something because it feels good.
     
    Last edited: Jul 9, 2011
  17. Me-Ki-Gal Banned Banned

    Messages:
    4,634
    Your a propagandaist Joe Blow . If you think that Dems are not persuaded by special interest your living in a dream state . They are just as much to blame as anybody .
     
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    LOL, congratulations you have done what every other defender of the right wing has done - resort to name calling (i.e. ad hominem). Unfortunately for you and those like you, truth and reason are not propaganda.

    If you disagree then where is your evidence and where is your reason? Oh that is right, you and those like you have no need for reason or evidence.
    Oh please! Now when did I say that Dems were not persuaded by special interests? Oh that is right, I never said that. I said no one in Washington is advocating serious change - changing the way we elect public officials. I didn't say that one party was immune to the influence of special interest money. That was you creating a straw man arguement (another illogical argeument).

    That said, that does not change the fact that the Dems have been and continue to be more fiscally responsible than Republicans - as demonstrated by previous posts.
     
  19. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    20,285
    One wonders why anyone does anything. I mean, the US government can print "moneys". Gee, lets just give everyone hundreds of thousands of dollars every week and we all kick back and enjoy the wealth

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    9.2% official unemployment. That''s probably counting the 50,000 McDonalds jobs Obama "created" last month. Thank the Gods we bailed out GoldmanSux in 2009. Thanks Bush. You f*ck.
     
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Well that is not what is happening Michael. Some people are wealthy and enjoying themselves. But most are not. And you are well aware of that fact.

    The 50k McDonald jobs were added to the economy in Arpil, not last month. Last month the net jobs added were 18k according to the report released Friday. However, the operative word was "net". The BLS report indicates that private sector jobs continue to expand while government jobs continue to shrink. The government sector lost 39k jobs last month and that should be good news for conservatives who hate government.

    Below is the exact wording from yesterdays labor announcement. Essentially the employment picture is unchanged.


    "Economic News Release

    Commissioner's Statement on the Employment Situation

    Advance copies of this statement are made available to the press
    under lock-up conditions with the explicit understanding that the
    data are embargoed until 8:30 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.


    Statement of

    Keith Hall
    Commissioner
    Bureau of Labor Statistics

    Friday, July 8, 2011


    Nonfarm payroll employment was essentially unchanged in June
    (+18,000), and the unemployment rate, at 9.2 percent, also
    changed little.
    Over the past 2 months, job growth has slowed
    markedly. Employment rose by an average of 215,000 per month
    from February through April of this year, compared with an
    average of 22,000 for May and June.

    Mining employment continued to expand in June, with a job
    gain in support activities for mining (+7,000). Employment in
    professional and technical services also continued to increase
    (+24,000). The industry has added 245,000 jobs since reaching a
    recent low in March 2010. Leisure and hospitality employment
    edged up over the month (+34,000).

    Employment in manufacturing was flat in May and June,
    following 6 months of gains that totaled 164,000. Employment in
    temporary help services changed little in June and has shown
    little net growth so far this year. Most other private-sector
    industries showed little or no change over the month.

    Employment in government continued to trend down (-39,000)
    in June. Federal employment declined by 14,000. The number of
    jobs in both state government and local government continued to
    trend down over the month and has been falling since the second
    half of 2008.

    Average hourly earnings of all employees on private nonfarm
    payrolls were down by 1 cent in June to $22.99. Over the past 12
    months, average hourly earnings have risen by 1.9 percent. From
    May 2010 to May 2011, the Consumer Price Index for All Urban
    Consumers (CPI-U) increased by 3.4 percent.

    Turning now to measures from the household survey, the
    unemployment rate was 9.2 percent in June, and 14.1 million
    people were unemployed. Since March, the unemployment rate has
    risen by 0.4 percentage point, and the number of unemployed
    persons has increased by 545,000.

    The employment-population ratio declined to 58.2 percent in
    June. Among the employed, the number of individuals working part
    time who preferred full-time work was essentially unchanged at
    8.6 million.

    The labor force participation rate was little changed, at
    64.1 percent, in June. Among those outside the labor force--
    persons neither working nor looking for work--the number of
    discouraged workers in June was 982,000, down from 1.2 million a
    year earlier. These individuals were not looking for work
    because they believed no jobs were available for them.

    In summary, nonfarm payroll employment in June was
    essentially unchanged for the second consecutive month. The
    unemployment rate, at 9.2 percent, was 0.4 percentage point
    higher than in March." - BLS web site

    http://www.bls.gov/news.release/jec.nr0.htm
     
  21. iceaura Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    30,994
    Sure, many of them.
    Don't be silly. This disaster is the culmination of the Reagan Revolution, and is the fault of its architects and leading promoters - who were and are almost all Republican, to the extent they have any Party affiliation.

    With all the billionaire cash floating around, high stock prices seem reasonable - and maybe the hidden inflation has to creep out somewhere.

    Instead of what's coming - devaluing the currency, etc - it's too bad the government cannot devalue the housing stock - drop it another 25% or so to bring it in line with normal economics, and declare the difference vanished from the loan books.
     
  22. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    20,285
    What do you mean by "the Government devalue the housing stock"? How? By decree? Maybe we can get the government to grow 300 million milk bearing teets and we can all get on one and suckle.

    How about this instead, we prosecute the Bankers, change the way the financial system functions and send a lot of these corrupt f*ckers into the poor house.


    joepistole,

    At which point do we decide the current strategy is not working? How high does unemployment have to go before you say: We need to try something different. How deep in debt? Where are the limits? The sky?
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2011
  23. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,910
    Here is the deal Michael, the current strategy has already worked and that is reflected in the data. We have gone from loosing almost a million jobs a month to creating jobs consistently month after month for more than a year.

    If you look at where we were before the current strategy was implemented and where we are now, there is a difference of about a million jobs a month. We went from consistently loosing about a million jobs a month to consistently adding several thousand jobs a month for more than a year now. In my book, that is a success.

    Unfortunately the economy lost 8 million jobs before the "current strategy" took effect. And we have not yet recovered those lost jobs. And the reasons are several, some under our control and some not. First there are credit/bank issues in Europe that have not yet been resolved. Every few months you hear about renewed panic caused by the potential default of the Greek state. That is not something we can control here in the US. Unfortunately Europe did not follow The United States in its approach to solving the banking crisis. Europe has not cracked down on the derivative trading that caused the crisis; nor have they recapitalized their banks. They have preferred Band-Aids instead of real cures and the keep kicking the Greek problem down the road.

    Two there are environmental factors that have caused global supply chain and demand problems. Those again are beyond the control of any human much less The United States government. You cannot expect that God will come down from heaven and ensure all things will flow to the benefit of the US economy and labor market. It just is not going to happen and has not happened. But that does not mean that the “current US solution “is not working.

    And finally there is this threat of an intentional default of the US government on it’s debt. This is something that is totally under our control. Businesses and investors are fools to invest (i.e. create jobs) when they do not know if the US government has become incapable of effectively governing itself and nothing says that like an intentional default – the kind Republicans/Tea Partiers are threatening to do if they do not get their way (e.g. failing to raise the debt limit).
     
    Last edited: Jul 10, 2011

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