# Very low probability of 2 advanced societies at same time in near universe

Discussion in 'Astronomy, Exobiology, & Cosmology' started by lbiarge, Feb 24, 2013.

1. ### lbiargeRegistered Member

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44
(hypothesis against the mainstream)

(links deleted, the forum not permit me)

The probability of 2 advanced societies needed for the seti proyects is near 0:

To give an approximation we need consider the live of the star, our star (the Sun) has 4.57 billion years (wikipedia) and with estimated live al of 12.3 Billion years (wiki.answers.com)

Our advanced society has only 100 years (really many less) and probably will have few years more (oil peak, …).

In all forms we can consider 1000 years of advanced civilization for connect with other civilizations in the universe, this means that 1000/12,300,000,000 = 8.13 e-8 or 0,0000000813 (other stars have more years of life, so the division would be less – until estimated 10 trillion years - wiki.answers.com)

Searching live extraterrestrial and the very low probability of 2 advanced civilization at same time, this is of 8.13 e-8 x 8.13 e-8 = 64 e-16. This is near infinite impossible.

Well, we are at present in supposed advanced society, so to take in count with other civilization in Milky way the relation would to be only of 8.13 e-8 and like “The Milky Way contains at least 100 billion stars[23] and may have up to 400 billion stars” (in wikipedia) this means supposing total of 400 billion stars a probably of 400 billion x 0,0000000813 = 32,520 possibilities.

But this 32,520 is far of the good answer, in our Milky way only are visible near to “5000 visible "stars"” - (answers.yahoo.com)

Also can speak over 84 millions of stars , this would be a better approximation but 84 millions x 0,0000000813 = 6.82 considering near 1000 years of advanced society in both planets.

Now our next question would be if we are really advanced to contact with other civilization and the answer is “NO”

Do you believe we could obtain signal from all this planets with probably live in the 84 millions of stars visible in the Milky way? Really you believe we can only listen their signals? More problems are with send signals.

Our actual technology permits us near the limit to contact with our satellites a few more that our solar system “the voyager” or the satellite send to Pluto. This technology is according to know where is the satellite, …

Probably our actual technology cannot take contact neither with the nearest start to us (“Proxima Centauri is the nearest star to the Sun” - Proxima Centauri is the nearest star to the Sun.) with a distance of about 4.24 light years (wikipedia).

“Pluto is about four light-hours from Earth” and “Pluto's distance from Earth makes in-depth investigation difficult. Many details about Pluto will remain unknown until 2015,” in so Proxima Centauri is only 24/4 = 6 x 365 x 4.24 = 9285.6 more distance that Pluto.

You can read the Communication system with voyager 1 in that “includes a 3.7 meter diameter parabolic”

Really the Hubble telescope cannot give details from Pluto and that it have “Surface area of 1.665×107 km2 - or 0.033 Earths” and pretend to obtain signal of planets to many more distance.

If Hubble telescope cannot give signal of a body so big and at so low distance: Do you believe we can receive so little signal from so big distances in electromagnetic waves?

Radio telescopes may help for stars and other universe signals but not for societies signals : “Just as optical astronomers make images using the light emitted by celestial objects such as stars and galaxies, radio astronomers can make images using the radio waves emitted by such objects” -

The radio telescope signal are very attenuated (speaking over the star signal) “The radio signals arriving on Earth from astronomical objects are extremely weak -- millions (or billions) of times weaker than the signals used by communication systems.”- , so imagine the power of a society signal infinitely less that the big strong signal of stars.

Imagine the big power to send a signal for to be a strong near to star signal, probably all the energy of the planet would not be enough.

Also we need to add the interferences in waves for stars (“Satellite Interference By The Sun” in ) because any planet need to be around a star and that star would make interferences to the society signals.

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Maybe in the future a new advanced society in Earth admit connection with other planets in the universe but our advanced society is below the requirements for connect in same form that primitive man cannot contact to the antipodes.

In relation to send signal the problem is many more, we would need with actual technology transmit with a power near of a star to obtain a so little quantity of signal like stars are visible with telescopes and also transmitted in an exact direction and only in the direction of the parabolic antenna. More, also need admit a big dispersion in actual antennas by a big radio.

An example: Soho satellite lost communication with the Earth from June 24 to August 4 of 1998 by an error in “antennas were no longer angled toward Earth” - - and with not so big distance from Earth. Distance of “1,500,000 km 1% of the distance to the Sun” -

Probably the scientists could obtain a solution to see a probably oxygen atmosphere but this will be probably the only relation with probably live in other planets.

In same relation that with advanced societies we can make the relation with live, considering the Earth live of “life date to 3.85 billion years ago” -

So the relation with life is 3.85 billion/12.3 Billion years = 0.313 but in relation to live, not necessary of oxygen and without technology.

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Probably we make to consider the big quantities of money spend in live in other planets and seem near to a fraud. The probability to obtain contact with live or know existence of life is infinitely low, so near 0 in all form, same in all stars would have life. Our advanced society probably cannot take constant neither with a civilization in Proxima Centauri.

This seems only a FRAUD. An entertainment.

More information over positive result can to be show for example in:

Seti of nasa -
seti@home -

For example, “The price tag for the Cyclops array was \$10 billion USD” (radio telescope) - , maybe be good for universe signals, fraud for life signals.

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Really connecting with other advanced civilitacion is near impossible or more. We need to add the low probability of 2 advanced societies in same time, the interferences from the star of each solar system, the antenna, the very big atenuattion with universe distances, the very big signal in relation to stars, …

But seem a good tale and in good relation to fraud or machination like UFO, …

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Thanks.

© Luis Biarge Baldellou. - webpage :

3. ### kwhilbornBannedBanned

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2,088
What if the civilized society was able to conquer space space travel and have colonies in several solar systems? This would remove the possibility of any single event from destroying the society. I think it depends on how fast a society can learn to travel. This would also lend credence to their abilities to study us and become our UFO's.

5. ### lbiargeRegistered Member

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44
Our civilization is near to the oil peak and probably later of that point, a civilization able to conquest the space travel (not us) would need to obtain in this short time or have a planet full of combustible.

I foget before that in the universe time is against and by that we could not contact with civilization today, only with civilization of the past.

Also, I see you forget the attenuation of signals, travel time of signals, that we are not prepared to contact, ....

This is like UFO, many people amazing UFO but UFO only cannot exist. It's impossible.

Look, without think in the lower probability of 2 advanced societies at same time, would be probably a million or more civilization in the milky way but also impossible the comunication with theirs at least with our technology.

Impossible only is impossible, include people like other solution.

7. ### lbiargeRegistered Member

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44
For this would need very advanced and very much fuel. Or: Do you believe that civilization only would use their technology to travel to stars, without cars, house heating, transport, plains, light bulbs, ..?

More, is very probably that our civilization technology not more of 30 years, probably 0 years until now, and I have the calculus with 1000 years civilization technology and with energy (energy and technology are equivalents in this case).

Actually our planet is near many peaks, the peak oil, the peak copper, ... also problems with the so called Rare earth, so: Do you believe that others civilization would not have this same problems in a moment of technology like actual in the Earth? Do you believe that any more technologic society would have more oil that us and not problems with the peaks and end of matters?

Maybe never can travel to another solar system (I believe very secure that no), add here the time for the travel, the technology, the combustible, the metals, ... the cost, and what you thinks is the prize to all that efforts and money?

Last edited: Feb 25, 2013
8. ### kwhilbornBannedBanned

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2,088
@ Lbiarge,
I did understand all your points. My conclusion is that it would depend on how fast people could travel. If not at the speed of light through folding space or wormholes.

Let us imagine that we could travel faster than the speed of light. Then you would send messages by tiny faster than light craft as opposed to signals, unless you could also fold space, etc for the signals.

I do think if it was possible to breach light speed then colonization of distant planets would become a viable reality and likely to occur. You make it sound as if combustion is the only way we can make energy, and yet our atomic fuel supply is unlimited, and I personally believe we are nearing the use of Cold Fusion/LENR in our vehicles.

I again conclude it all depends on how fast mankind can learn to travel. We do currently believe breaching light speed is impossible, but mankind always thinks things are impossible. A lighter would have been deemed impossible by cave men. Who knows if there are ways to circumvent known laws?

I agree you make a lot of good points, as civilizations reach advanced levels after many millions of years of evolution. There is a window. I would like to think that it is the destruction of the planet that likely ends the species though as opposed to running out of fuel.

So I still say speed might keep a civilization alive. Scattered but alive. There are people who believe our ancestors might have held such technology. Why must we be the first advanced society? I have no idea, but am just pointing this out. If we vanished from earth tomorrow what would remain from our civilization in a few million years?

9. ### lbiargeRegistered Member

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44
Sorry, all you say is impossible in our planet and technology.

All you say is imagination.

According to this UFO are probably, but none has proved never. Or maybe in their travel not include the Earth?

Our technology use always oil, near or more of the oil peak, we need every day near of 80 millions of barrel, this hold our civilization?

A society more advanced with low cost in energy seem impossible.

Today is well proved that at more technology more cost in combustible, also that at more efficiency more consume, and this is all proved, not imagined like your notes.

For your notes would need a better civilization with low energy cost, with low energy cost seem impossible the interest in interplanet travels (is a big energy cost), ... imagine a civilization with infinite energy, more advanced that our, and with more efficiency and less cost, is all many imagination.

But also that civilization would need to discover the form that the waves were not attenuate by distance and how emit with same or more energy that they star without many energy cost.

In all forms thanks, is very interesting.

10. ### spidergoatLiddle' Dick TaterValued Senior Member

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53,966
So.. the Drake Equation? I agree it's unlikely, but so what? The Cyclops array was never built, and space exploration is a fine thing to do anyway.

11. ### DinosaurRational SkepticValued Senior Member

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4,885
There is no reason to believe that there is now or ever was a technological culture in our galaxy. There are probably many galaxies with no such cultures & few with more than one.

The Drake equation is a joke. The values which folks plug into it are unsupported guesses.

12. ### GrumpyCurmudgeon of LucidityValued Senior Member

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1,876
Dinosaur
Well, we know there's one in our galaxy. And many of the values for the terms of the Drake Equation are being pinned down pretty tightly, others not so much. But even if there were 100 civilizations comparable to ours in our corner of the galaxy and we all matured to using radio waves to communicate at the same moment, it would still be in the range of thousand of years before we knew about each other. Our own first radio signals are barely 100 light years away from Earth right now, the likelihood of another advanced civilization existing within that light sphere is vanishingly small. And any response from them would take 100 years to reach us. And it is much more likely that the clock started only when we exploded our first atomic weapon in the atmosphere. That signature would be much stronger than any radio wave and would be a unique signature of an advanced civilization, a signature out of place coming from the type of star we live next to. That signature is only 60 or so light years from Earth right now and none of the stars in that light circle seem to have produced such signatures. The biggest problem with finding civilizations or visiting your neighbors(even if they live "next door")is the stupendous distances between the stars, the second biggest is the physics of travel and the universal speed limit it imposes(superluminal flight is now and likely always will be fantasy). Even a "high tech" attempt(Bussard Ramjet maybe?)to reach even the nearest stars is likely to involve generations of travelers and those who launch it will not see the results of their effort. Sad, but that's life. But we have a whole Solar System that we can systematically disassemble and pollute for centuries to come, so cheer up.

Grumpy

13. ### GravageRegistered Senior Member

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1,241
If aliens somehow ever visit Earth, they would kill us if they are scientifically and technologically superior.
But it will not going to happen, ever.

14. ### spidergoatLiddle' Dick TaterValued Senior Member

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53,966
There is every reason to believe that life exists somewhere in our galaxy besides Earth. The more information they have to process from the sense, the more processing power they would need. I think it's very likely. Whether we will ever meet them is very unlikely though.

15. ### lbiargeRegistered Member

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44
According to my notes the "Drake equation" is impossible, he not have in count the probability of 2 technology societies at same time, read my first note.

In my formula I put 1000 years, but today our technology society probably is yet in 0 years.

"There is every reason to believe that life exists somewhere in our galaxy besides Earth" - according to my notes live is very possible but we cannot proof probably never, probably never we can know if exist life out of our solar system. Against that it's probably life, is near impossible other technologic society. Please read another time my first note and remember I make the calculus with 1000 years.

Also to contact with other civilization you need to understand that is a travel to the past.

An ask: If there is any advanced civilization in Milky way: Why not visit us or contact us? and if you like give a positive answer, another ask: Do you believe the cost to contact with us give any benefit?

Another: Why you believe that are preparing a travel to Mars without return?

I affirm another time: Our civilization cannot contact with any other, any civilization that would contact with us would need come here or emit with so many power near their star. The probability of 2 advanced societies at same time only in Milky way is near to zero.

16. ### DinosaurRational SkepticValued Senior Member

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4,885
The history of Earth strongly suggests the following.

When/where conditions are suitable for life, it is likely to exist. There is evidence of life on Earth circa 3.7 billion years ago, which is not too long after conditions were suitable.

A technological culture is more likely to be a lucky fluke than an inevitable consequence of evolution. The dinosaurs existed for circa 150 million years & the last of them were no smarter than the early ones.

Only one primate species developed a technological culture. The Neandertals & the Denisovans seemed as intelligent as Homo Sapiens, but did not survive long enough to do the job. None of the other primate species came close. Note that New World primates did not come as close as chimps.​

Remember that there is a habitable zone in a galaxy as well as a habitable zone in a solar system, cutting down the number of planets with suitable conditions. Furthermore, a solar system must be stable for 4 billion or more years to provide the time required for the evolution of intelligent life.

As mentioned in a previous post: We might be the only technological culture in our galaxy; There are likely to be many galaxies with no such culture & few (if any) with more than one.

17. ### GrumpyCurmudgeon of LucidityValued Senior Member

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1,876
lbiarge

I'm not sure you realize what the Drake Equation is. It makes no claim to provide any answer, it just sets out the logical path to determine the likelihood of other intelligent life being found. Some parts of that path are well lit(age of the Universe, numbers of stars of suitable spectra and metal content, numbers of those stars shown to have planets in the habitable zone...), some we are completely in the dark on(how common is life given good conditions, how often intelligence evolves, how many advanced civilizations escape destroying themselves...). It isn't an equation that can give you answers, it is simply ordering the various factors in a way that allows organized thought on the question, it allows you to assess the likelihood using the things you do know and understand what things you need to understand better to improve you estimate. If we get to the moons of Jupiter or to Mars and find life in their oceans or soil it will give a high value to the factor regarding how often life will emerge given favorable conditions and boost the value of how often intelligence could evolve(because the first step to the evolution of intelligent life is the evolution of life itself)and all subsequent factors(civilization, technology, etc.). The more factors we move from the unknown to the known, the more confidence we can have in our estimates. For instance, until the last few decades we had no knowledge of other stars having planets, we were pretty sure they would but today, we are certain that Earthlike planets exist in abundance raising the value of that factor and all subsequent ones.

Grumpy

18. ### lbiargeRegistered Member

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44
If the probability of 2 advanced civilization of 1000 years at same time is only 8.13 e-8, then the probability of 3 is near e-12, 4 of e-16, ….

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Supposing I’m wrong and you have reason:

Why none signal until now? And imagine the costs of all the seti proyects.

If there is any advanced civilization: Why not treat to contact with us?, probably we are not the needed technology but they would be?

Why not spend the same money to searching Gods? Why not for UFOs?

Why the people that affirm anything not give the proofs and need to give who say is false? Do you understand that GODS need to be considered true until anything proof that not exist? The probability of contact, GODS and UFOs are probably the same.

Why the evidence and proofs are insufficient?

Why the mathematical calculus is insufficient?

Why none evidence is an evidence of existence?

Why any scientists say that probably a million societies in Milky way and after no result change the idea to very strange the life and not resign and not obtain total discredit?

Why a electromagnetic signal from many distance could to be captured without a big attenuation in relation to the star lights? In Earth any signal transmitted to the universe is probably 1 trillion less that the sunlight and by that the signal received need also to be also of 1 trillion less.

Why the proofs and evidences always are insufficient against what we like or desire or belief? And in this case there are proofs against and there are not proof according to.

19. ### lbiargeRegistered Member

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this: "More than 4.500 extraterrestrial civilizations in the Milky Way?" - http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread903871/pg1

this with Drake equation.

or this: "The ratio is one to one hundred million. That means that today would live only a hundred million that have existed in the Milky Way, our own." - http://www.guangxiedu.net/tag/the-milky-way

or: John Gribbin the New Scientist commentator and Author of many science books has just published a new book on this very subject namely: "The Reason Why - The Miracle of Life on Earth By John Gribbin"

I repeat, the seti proyect begin believing million of civilization, later without any proof the solution "rare, miracle of life

or "“The Rare Earth" - http://btc.montana.edu/ceres/astrobiology/files/RareEarth.htm

easy : many civilization, not find none, rare life

20. ### GrumpyCurmudgeon of LucidityValued Senior Member

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1,876
lbiarge

Several, physical reasons.

1. The HUGE distances between stars.
2. The relative rarity of suitable worlds around suitable stars means the distance problem is made worse by many magnitudes(ie there are many stars within 100 light years, there are few of them with a reasonable spectrum and metal content, and fewer still with Earthlike planets in the right zone).
3. The chances that our two civilizations would reach the technological level at the same time(or even within a million years of each other).
4. The speed limit on any signal sent or received.
5. The likelihood that many if not most such civilizations succeed in destroying themselves(by climate change and extinction or by atomic war, in the end it makes no difference).
6. The likelihood that the civilization is looking for or sending signals.
and others.

Of course any semi-random spacially distributed array of points will have some fraction that are very close to other points. If that array represented all advanced civilizations in our galaxy there is likely to be several separate star systems that are aware of each other. We'll never know if we don't look, maybe we will be one of those close to another. For all I know the systems near the galactic center may be numerous, the density would be much higher, distances shorter, communication faster, but the radiation flux could have sterilized that whole area. The fact is that physics probably confine us to the area around our own star and we will likely never hear a peep out of our neighbors. But the laws of probability may break in our favor and SETI programs ride virtually for free on our extensive radio telescope networks, so why not listen(better yet, let our computers listen and notify us when they find one)?

Grumpy

21. ### NasorValued Senior Member

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6,230
Based on our sample size of one?

22. ### river

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Reading Richard Dolan's book UFOs and the National Security State

You might be interested in this ,

Project Ozma gets a signal ( pg. 241 )

On April 8 , 1960 , the radio telescope at Green Bank West Virginia , focused on the star , Tau Ceti and received a powerful signal , and in DR. Frank Drake's words " knocked the needle off the dials "

" Two weeks later , after repositioning the telescope , the signal reappeared "

" This gave strong support that the signal was terrestrial , most likely from a nearby and extremely strong transmitter . The Naval Research Laboratory later revealed that its staff had been listening to these same signals for the past six months . It is curious that they were unable to determine the source. The best guess is that the NSA ran the transmitter , as it happened to have a major facility at Green Bank . Drake himself later said that he " never really knew what we made contact with that first day "

By 1961 , project Ozma , was closed up and moved to Arecibo , Puerto Rico

Interesting tidbit really

23. ### youreyesamorphous oceanValued Senior Member

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2,830
We are at the beginning of our own civilization, in the crib to be exact. Expecting us to find other civilizations with our own primitive technology is pathetic at best. And furthermore, it is obvious that societies of our own world can be seen as civilization on a microscale of the universe. These societies/civilizations are best of surviving if they maintain a peaceful coexistence, primarily for maintaining balance. Basing on our own Earth model of countries and societies that existed in the past we can easily understand that there are severe limitations imposed by the civilizations/societies themselves for a contact to procure. These limitations become more diverse and widespread if a society or civilization advances to its further stages of development. My only conclusion thus is that we have not contacted other civilizations in space purely because they choose not to reveal themselves as yet, meanwhile those civilizations parallel or lower in stages of development to our own are simply not capable of detecting our presence or letting others know of their presence.