Fraggle Rocker
Staff member
In this case they are basing the assertion on very solid empirical evidence. Therefore it's reasonable to call the prediction "true beyond a reasonable doubt." It also must be taken in context, but we all share the same context so that is no problem. Obviously a plane could crash into any one of our houses tonight, so we would not get out of bed in the morning. If that happens, nobody is going to say, "Aha, you were lying!" It's unreasonable to expect a plane to crash through your roof since that only happens to one person in the entire country a few times per century, so the odds of it happening to any one individual on any given night are about one in half a trillion.I think they mean they are pretty sure they might get out of bed tomorrow. Whereas they got out of bed for the last x amount of days in there past so the odds are pretty good they will tomorrow.
No. It's Jungian psychology. For a rendering of much of Carl Jung's work into laymen's language, check out Joseph Campbell.Is that a language? Pre-Programed Archetypes that is.
The definition of an archetype is a motif--image, fear, ceremony, legend, etc., that occurs in nearly every human society in nearly every era. Since many archetypes clearly are survival traits, it's a reasonable hypothesis that the mechanism of their passage from one generation to the next is the DNA that directs the shaping of our synapses.Is there empirical evidence it is programed into our synapses.
The archetypes are remarkably consistent. This makes it less likely that they have been passed down through dozens or hundreds of generations by oral tradition--the "telephone game."I accept humans copying humans, but is that a truth proved by empirical evidence? Yet we learn by pre existing knowledge so learned behavior has the appearance of copying . . . .
All mammals and birds teach their young how to survive and prosper in the world. It's part of the parenting instinct.. . . . but is this itself a pre-determined instinct in human nature?
Humans have a unique area in our brains, the speech center, and we also have far more flexibility in our speech organs (tongue, lips, etc.) than most other mammals and birds, giving the speech center something to control. It's hard to diagram the brains of our ancestral species since soft tissue almost never fossilizes. But based on skull shape, zoologists have recently reached the conclusion that the Neanderthal brain also had a speech center. We'll probably never know about any of the ancestral hominids. Did speech develop because the speech center and vocal organs made it so easy? Or did early hominids struggle to speak and the brain center showed up as a random mutation which quickly selected the people who had it for a greater chance of survival?If so then could all of language be part of the instinct of humans? Also being subject to evolution by the same mechanism as anything that evolves. Is there a pre-disposition for humans to use language? If so is it rooted in these archetypes you talk about ?
Given that "equal" and "wrong" are both value judgments, the assertions are more philosophical than zoological anyway.There is no empirical evidence for the assertions that "all people are equal", or "that murder and incest are wrong".
So what's wrong with "hunch" and "gut feeling"? We all know what those words mean and we already use them--at least in American English.I'm not sure that the archetypes that we all innately possess are responsible, and certainly none of the religious nature. I'm thinking more of a word that covers, for example, a "hunch" that police often tend to express, or maybe that "gut feeling" we have when we "know" that our spouse is cheating on us.
Con men, psychologists, cops and diplomats are famous for being able to read what are called "tells." These include, for example, amount of eye contact and direction of crossing arms or legs. Con men and diplomats are also able to control their own responses and "lie" with their bodies.I do not know if you're familiar with the TV show Lie to me, but it deals with the idea of a "human lie detector", i.e. one who can read micro-expressions, body language, etc. and come up with an accurate assessment nine times out of ten. Or at least more often than would be statistically probable based on pure guess work.
Psychologists often test these types of phenomena, and they don't always turn out to be as reliable as we give them credit for.I realize I am doing a poor job of describing this, that is the whole crux of the matter. To expound on an earlier example, if something is stolen from me and three people have means and opportunity, it seems (to me at least) that often one may experience an inner conviction that person A is guilty, although you could not even prove it to the courtroom standard of "preponderance of evidence", let alone "beyond a reasonable doubt". Nonetheless, you know the "truth" way more often than not.
That may be enough to satisfy you about "truth" as you make your way through daily life. But one of the key steps in the scientific method is peer review. Another person has to be able to repeat your experiment and get the same results. If you can't even explain why you feel a certain way, no one will be able to peer-review it.The best I have ever been able to up with in English is that I "know" this intuitively. A case could be made that empirical evidence does, in fact, exist but the clues are sometimes so minute that even the person making such a proclamation is unable to point out said evidence.
Again, we've been given a number of perfectly useful words already. Why can't you call it a hunch or a gut feeling like so many other people do?All I can do is provide examples, as I know of no synonyms beyond those that I have mentioned. So, if your boss calls you into his/her office and you "know" this is going to be bad news, is there a word that more accurately describes that feeling than "speculation"?
You haven't investigated the probability phenomenon sufficiently. Statistically, due to nothing more than random combinations of events, some people are going to be much luckier than others. If you toss a coin fifty times and it always comes up heads, this provides exactly zero evidence to predict the result of the next toss. So the same is true if you've always guessed right about decisions in your life. You were lucky many times in a row. This provides exactly zero evidence upon which to predict that you will be lucky the next time.Something between "know" and "speculate"? A word that denotes a much higher probability than pure chance?
The reason is that people are strongly swayed by coincidence. It is one of the most powerful forces in our lives.It's a conviction that you feel strongly about, are right about much more often than wrong, but you can't point to any particular reason convincing you that you "know" the outcome.
Stories of amazing strings of luck are well-known because they are so interesting, and also because they are so rare. Nobody ever tells or hears the story about the guy who won a hundred thousand dollars on ten spins of the roulette wheel, but then lost it all on the eleventh spin.
I repeat, what's wrong with the words other people use?I've considered this question for quite some time and my vocabulary simply does not contain a word that adequately conveys the subtle nuance(s) that I'm trying to express.
People like to appear certain to their friends and family. They think it makes them look smart and powerful. They'd rather say "I know my kid did it," than "I have a hunch my kid did it." But it's exactly the same hunch.People often use this type of language casually, as in "I know that my three year old is responsible for breaking that lamp!" when it could have been the dog, cat or even some other strange cause - wind, a visitor that didn't 'fess up, etc.
That's a common enough turn of phrase.From now on, instead of "I know s/he did it!" I shall use "I believe s/he did it!". I just hope the nuance is evident to those I am conversing with.
Most of us would probably assume that the person who says "believe" has a little more evidence than the person who says "hunch" or "gut feeling."Nonetheless, this seems to be the only alternative (in English) that makes sense.