Will Greece exit the Euro? (Thread now a poll)

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Billy T, May 13, 2012.

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Will Greece Exit the Euro (Poll version)

Poll closed Jul 12, 2012.
  1. Yes

    70.0%
  2. No

    30.0%
  1. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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  3. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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  5. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Anyone who thinks Russia is in any position to rescue Greece isn't playing with a full deck!
     
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  7. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    It's starting to look like a Grexit is becoming more probable. Here's how it might go down:

    The new government has made all kinds of spending promises that it's determined to honor. These range from rehiring hordes of laid-off government employees, to free electricity and food for the poor. Unfortunately, the Greek government doesn't have enough Euros to pay for it and the bailout lines of credit that Greece has been subsisting on cease at the end of February. So their finance minister and PM have been touring Euro-zone capitals in hopes of persuading their EU partners to give them a so-called "bridge-loan", pending a new renegotiated funding arrangement this summer based on terms that the Greeks seemingly want to dictate. Not surprisingly, nobody else seems thrilled with that idea.

    So apparently the Greeks are contemplating issuing lots of new Greek government bonds. Given the very real risk of default, who in their right mind is going to buy them? The answer is probably the Greek banks.

    That might work short-term, since the ECB's commitment to keep the Greek banks liquid doesn't end on Feb 28. But the European Central Bank has apparently already told the Greeks that if the Greek government tries to finance huge deficits through the banking system, the ECB will stop supporting those banks. That would likely lead to a Greek banking collapse, to a run on the banks as depositors try to rescue their Euros, and to a government ordered freeze on all withdrawals. That could lead to private sector employers not meeting their payrolls and to store shelves not being stocked.

    About all that the Greeks could do at that point is to start printing Drachmas (which would immediately plunge in value).
     
    Last edited: Feb 9, 2015
  8. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

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    2,830
    Greece, along with Austria are disapproving the sanctions imposed on Russia by EU. Such tall call in the face of Obama, means that Greece at least is either trying to get a bigger buck from EU and to ease its debt or to switch sides and leave EU altogether.

    Recent visit of Merkel to US, just shows the fragility of EU as a whole and the extent of reaffirmation the politicians must go to to "assure" of the strength of the partnership between US and EU.

    So yes, Greece will exit, if EU doesnt give it big bucks, which by the looks of NBG stocks, isnt happening.
     
  9. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    What is amazing is anyone thinks Greece is important. Greece's GDP is 242 billion dollars. That's chump change. As for US - EU fragility, you have been listening to too much Putin.

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  10. Enmos Valued Senior Member

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  11. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    Looks likely now:
     
  12. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    That wouldn't be the idea involved. The idea would be that Greece might have somewhere to land when it parachutes out of the Euro. Not a nice place, but a floor below which the hardships of austerity cannot be safely put.

    Until recently the Eurozone moneylenders seemed to be acting under the assumption that Greece had nowhere to go to escape whatever "austerity measures" the Lloyd Blankfeins of the Euro could dream up for the peasantry.
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    There will probably be a lot of showboating and chest pounding in the coming weeks. They have till April to resolve this issue. So I expect a lot of drama between now and then.
     
  14. Michael 歌舞伎 Valued Senior Member

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  15. quantum_wave Contemplating the "as yet" unknown Valued Senior Member

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  16. LaurieAG Registered Senior Member

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    389
    Over 60% voted no.

    I came across the following on social media. Can anybody verify?
     
  17. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    6,345
    "More than 61% of Greeks voted “no” in Sunday’s referendum on austerity measures and other overhauls that European and International Monetary Fund officials had demanded in recent talks..."
     
  18. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,908
    Verified, it's being widely reported that with over 70% of the vote counted about 61% voted No and 39% voted Yes. Given the inconsistencies between the polling and the actual results, one has to wonder about the integrity of numbers, given this vote was not subject to normal level of scrutiny given usual elections due to the sudden nature of the vote.

    In order to get the No vote, Tsipras made promises to his fellow Greeks which he cannot deliver on without the assistance of the Eurogroup. He promised his fellow Greeks they would not lose their bank deposits if they voted No. He promised that after the No vote he would quickly sign an agreement with the Eurogroup and everything would return to normal. Given how much Tsipras has pissed off his fellow Eurogroup members, I would be very surprised to see them come quickly to Tsipras's aid. I think they want to let him roast a bit.

    So if the Eurogroup doesn't come to his aid and if the Eurogroup moves to eject Greece from the Euro as promised, Greek banks will not be opening any time soon. Greeks will continue to hoard anything and everything, food, supplies, and Euros. Shelves will remain bare. Gasoline supplies will dry up, businesses will fail, unemployment will skyrocket, it just isn't a good outlook for Greece. No one will loan money to Greece and Greece will be forced to create its own currency, but it will be pretty much worthless. So in a nutshell, the Greeks are screwed. But they did it to themselves.

    Tsipras made promises he may not be able to keep in order to get a NO vote. The following text is from the Business Insider.

    "He said the vote was still on and Greeks should vote "no."
    Tsipras promised to protect Greeks' deposits, pensions, and wages, and he said Syriza would find a solution to the crisis after Sunday's vote.
    He also hit out at Eurogroup leaders who had warned Sunday's referendum could effectively be a vote on whether Greece stays in the eurozone. He said, "'No' does not mean rupture with Europe but a return to a Europe with values."
    He said he wouldn't lead Greece out of the euro and those who were making the threats were "lying knowingly."


    Read more: http://www.businessinsider.com/tsipras-greek-state-tv-bailout-deal-address-2015-7#ixzz3f4lDivQq

    Within the next 24 hours we should learn who will keep their word and who will not. I suspect given the level of animosity Greece may well be on its way out of the Euro. Tsipras has pissed off too many of his Eurogroup colleagues. Greece simply is not a major player, it only represents 1% of EU GDP.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2015
  19. pjdude1219 The biscuit has risen Valued Senior Member

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    um greece is might leave the euro zone but its still going to be part of nato.
     
  20. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    I hear they are passing the hat, looking for donations to help Greece pay off its debts.

    http://home.bt.com/tech-gadgets/tec...ons-to-help-pay-off-greek-debt-11363989943676

    The Eurogroup will meet on Tuesday to figure out where to go from here. But the signs are ominous for Greece. Personally, I don't think Tsipras will be able to keep the promises he made to his fellow Greeks in order to get them to vote No.

    Ingrid Arndt-Brauer, who chairs the finance committee in Germany’s lower house, said that she had expected the committee to be summoned Tuesday to begin the process of helping Greece with a new bailout package. The “No” vote rules out any such move.

    “Nobody wanted to torture the Greeks -- we’re not terrorists -- but to help them,” said Arndt-Brauer, a lawmaker with Merkel’s Social Democratic coalition partner. “A ‘Yes’ vote would have signaled a readiness to cooperate -- some reforms at least for fresh help. I see no credible basis to help Greece right now, none at all.”

    Xavier Bettel, the prime minister of Luxembourg and holder of the European Union’s six-month rotating presidency, said in an interview with Deutsche Presse-Agentur that it is up to the Greek government to make concrete proposals on the way forward.

    “Europe is strong and I’m sure that we will also find solutions,” he was cited as saying."

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...o-determine-european-response-to-greek-choice
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2015
  21. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    4,600
    To ignore democracy is quite natural, it does not really give anything. Democratic elections give only the worst case of demagogic winners. And the real power is in democratic states anyway in the hand of lobbies, thus, not democratically elected, not even influenced.

    Could you name any democratic politician whose speeches would be worth to be read for an intelligent person, except for the simple reason of getting actual information about his political decisions? Speeches worth to be reread, say, after 10 years? I could name only two of them, one was elected in a completely nondemocratic way (Pope Benedict) and the other one was elected in a more or less controlled democracy (Putin).

    By the way, fascism is no more considered as dangerous anyway: The economic system of the West is nothing but corporatism, which is the economic system of fascism, and politically it is the new American project, realized in the Ukraine.
     
  22. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    I think Russians have the most direct personal experience of the "economic system of fascism", as that is how Putin runs the country with his friends.
     
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  23. Schmelzer Valued Senior Member

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    Why do you switch to Russians? The thread is about Greece. Ok, they have the same religion (orthodox), but this seems quite unrelated to the economics considered here.

    The direct personal experience of the Russians is that of communism, which is economically even worse, the Greece have not experienced this. The actual economic system is similar to that of the West, so, indeed, corporatism (fascism) is an accurate description. But this actual economic situation is quite different, Russia has sufficient own ressources, almost no debt, and in some aspects (taxation) its economy is even more liberal than the Western one.
     
    Last edited: Jul 6, 2015
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