Will oil price go up to $100/barrel?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Saint, Dec 7, 2016.

  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,865
    I suggest you put your money, what little you may have, where your mouth is. You should by shares of BNO. I don't suppose you have any rationale for your thesis? One more thing, BNO is an ETF (i.e. exchange traded fund). A share is not equal to a barrel of oil. I know you and your buddy Putina are hoping for a return of expensive oil, but it isn't in the cards.

    The OPEC-non OPEC deal seems to be holding. No one has cheated yet, but it's still very early.
     
  2. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  3. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,826
    Let it be known to Sciforums members that a trustworthy member of our community has bet against BNO going up in foreseeble future.

    On Jan 4 at 8pm EST BNO was at 15.54 USD.

    We shall return here in one month from now, 6 months from now, 1 year from now, and 2 years from now to check on BNO stock price to settle the ash.
     
  4. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,676
    Agree that there can be spikes and troughs due to short term demand and supply disruptions. But long term, the basic cost of production should hold it at or under $70 a barrel for 5-10 years.
     
    Russ_Watters likes this.
  6. Google AdSense Guest Advertisement



    to hide all adverts.
  7. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,865
    Who is this trustworthy member? Did you not understand? As previously pointed out to you, and should have been evident by the OP and subsequent discussion, this was about the price of oil per barrel. It wasn't about the per share price of some oil based ETF which isn't even close to the per barrel price of oil.

    The consensus expectation is oil will trade in the mid 50 dollar range this year, based on expected production and expected demand. As previously pointed out, that can change. That expectation is based on a number of assumptions that may or may not hold true. The OPEC-non OPEC deal may not hold. Participants may cheat. The US may produce more than expected. Trump's huge fiscal spending plan may get enacted faster than expected. Trump may get himself stuck in a trade war. All of those things would affect the price of oil.

    No one here, including you, has a crystal ball. We cannot know the future with certitude. So for you to act like you can is dishonest and you shouldn't go around telling people to do things, i.e. invest their money, based upon things you cannot know. If you are going to make a prediction there should be some evidence and reason behind it, and you have yet to provide such a reason.
     
  8. Saint Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,323
    Will high oil price produce more jobs in the US for oil and gas industry?
     
  9. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    5,051
    Yes.
     
  10. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,865
  11. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,826
    The chart refers to CLJ17.NYM which represents the most current price of light sweet crude oil vs BNO. Do you not see an obvious correlation in price between the two? Do you not see an obvious moving average increasing for the two?

    Refer to:

    https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/CLJ...lIjoiMWQiLCJhbGxvd0NoYXJ0U3RhY2tpbmciOnRydWV9
     
  12. Saint Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,323
    When will electrical cars dominate the market and drastically cut the demand for oil?
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,865
    Good question; I don't know that anyone has the answer at this point. It depends on costs and technology. The automous car will change how we look at transportation. Instead of owning cars as we do today, people may rent them.

    Instead of renting by the day as it's done today, people will rent cars by the minute. People will only pay for the time they actually use cars.
     
    Last edited: Jan 9, 2017
  14. billvon Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    12,676
    Probably never. I see EV's penetrating to something less than 50%. They will be used by people who want cleaner, higher performance, better driving cars, while people who want cheap, long-distance cars will stick to gasoline. The biggest impact will come from pluggable hybrids, which share characteristics of both.
     
  15. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,826
    Somewhere in range of 50-150 years from now.
     
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,865
    You need to stop pulling shit out of your ass and trying to pass it off as something intelligent comrade.

    Just because your beloved Mother Russia needs high oil prices, it doesn't follow that the oil markets will accommodate her.

    The fact is there are a number of long term trends working against oil. It's not just electric cars.

    Most major oil exporters have prepared for it. Russia is the exception. Russia hasn't been planning for the end of big oil, and now it has managed to get its privates stuck in a wringer. It hasn't prepared for the end of big oil.

    http://www.mckinsey.com/industries/oil-and-gas/our-insights/is-peak-oil-demand-in-sight
     
  17. Saint Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,323
    Iran pumps more oil now

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  18. Saint Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    3,323
    Why does Venezuela have more problems than Russia and other oil exporting countries due to oil price plunge?
     
  19. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,865
    Leadership:. Venezuela's autocratic dictator died leaving a leadership vacuum.
     
  20. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,826
    Chavez was poisoned by overseas operatives due to his inability to secure himself. After fall of true management and leadership as Joepistole has said, Venezuela started succumbing to bad management tactics and overall too heavy reliance on oil took its toll. Lesson of the day? Diversification and High Security Measures.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/03/13/chavez-poisoned_n_2866555.html
     
    Last edited: Jan 11, 2017
  21. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    2,826
    Skipping personal attacks. End of oil? There are untapped resources in Arctic and fracking giving us a multitude of ways to keep pumping.

    Stanford's study estimates >50 million barrels of oil in Arctic and prices of $115 per barrel in 2030. Or...Stanford is also pro-Putin?

    link: http://large.stanford.edu/courses/2015/ph240/urban2/

    Now, McKinsey and their advices, I encourage you to read an insider's view of the company and their malpractices:

    So...you are advocating to follow an advice on "Peak Oil" from a company like McKinsey which was behind Enron....and we all know what happened to Enron.
     
  22. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    22,865
    LOL...more Russian fake news. Chavez wasn't poisoned.

    Chavez had been mortally ill for years. His death wasn't unexpected. He suffered from colon cancer and had a massive heart attack. He wasn't poisoned. Chavez had traveled to Cuba for treatment, but ultimately he lost his fight against cancer. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hugo_Chávez#Death
     
  23. Ophiolite Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    9,232
    That would make for an interesting book - the consequences of power vacuums left by autocratic dictators. Do I feel a thread topic coming on?
     

Share This Page