Will oil price go up to $100/barrel?

Discussion in 'Business & Economics' started by Saint, Dec 7, 2016.

  1. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Who said anything about the end of oil? You are making stuff up comrade. Yes, there are huge reserves of Arctic oil. That's why Russia is trying to claim the Arctic. No one is suggesting the end of oil.
    Further, if you had read the article you cited, you would know the authors didn't predict 115 dollar per barrel oil. The author made assumptions in order to access the economic viability needed in order to justify the cost and risk of Arctic production. I suggest you read his article.

    One more point, the author doesn't speak or write for Stanford. He writes for himself.

    I have worked with McKinsey, and they are a very well respected business consultant. McKinsey had absoutely nothing to do with the demise of Enron. So for you to assert otherwise is either ignorance or dishonesty comrade.

    Just because your beloved Mother Putina needs high oil prices, it doesn't mean he will get them. It's likely the demand for oil will continue to slow for all the reasons McKinsey pointed out. Advancements in technology will improve worldwide efficiency and reduce the need for oil. Climate change requires we change our behaviors, and whether you want to recognized that or not, those are real hard facts. The costs of hydrocarbon use is quickly exceeding the benefits. Coal is a prime example. Coal was at one time a dominate form of energy, but it has become too expensive as other alternatives have become cheaper. The same thing is happening to oil.

    That leaves countries who are heavily dependent upon oil in bad place. It's not like this hasn't been foreseen by many oil exporting states. It has. That's why the gulf states have been preparing for this eventuality for decades. Countries like Russia, Lybia, Syria, and Iran have not, and they are going to be hurt. That's the problem with being a one horse economy.
     
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  3. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Does the Wall street manipulate oil price?
     
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  5. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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  7. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    They try, of course. But Wall Street is really just the combination of a million investors all trying to make money - and so their efforts largely average out each other.
     
  8. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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  9. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

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    It would be a very risky book, bordering on Assange/Snowden endurance of what they are living thru now to get the truth out to the world. Like Al Gore brilliantly put it, but in a different context, "An Inconvenient Truth"...of course it has been conveniently put away on the shelf.
     
  10. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    A very high shelf?
    Using one of these?

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

     
  11. youreyes amorphous ocean Valued Senior Member

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    How should I say this correctly....I miss the pun
     
  12. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Price manipulation is illegal. Speculators can bid the price of oil up or down, but that's not price manipulation. That's just normal business. People buy and sell stuff all the time. That doesn't mean they are manipulating or controlling prices.

    Oil prices are manipulated by oil exporters like OPEC. They limit production to increase prices. Oil speculators don't do that. They cannot control supply.
     
  13. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Yeh, and some poor dumb schmuck bought oil futures at $117.71 circa April 1980. And another poor dumb schmuck bought oil futures at $154.38 circa june 2008.
    Traders can get a little crazy and drive the price up very fast, but it usually falls very fast from it's high mark.
    Opec, it would seem can drive the price up and keep it up ---eg; 1973-74 when they more than doubled the price from @$19 to over $50./bbl.

    Also, as oil is traded in US dollars, an oil play is also a currency play.
    Which begs the question: Will Trump try to dismantle the petrodollar?
     
  14. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    How could Trump dismantle the petrodollar, and why would that be relevant?

    What Trump could do is damage the US reputation as a safe stable country, destroy the economy with trade wars, and that would undermine the value of the dollar as a world reserve currency.
     
  15. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Has congress ever ratified the military obligation as per the petrodollar state department guarantee that the us will protect the Saudi oil fields?

    The state department agreement between Henry Kissinger and the Saudis obligates us militarily in the middle east.

    If we are to stop wasting trillions of dollars there then we may need to void those agreements.
    If we do then oil producers may trade oil for any currency they wish.
    This has some potential repercussions for the strength of the s dollar. True?
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2017
  16. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Every year congress approves the funding of the military effort required to protect all of our military commitments, but that has nothing to do with the petrodollar. Oil exporting states are free to denominate their oil contracts in any currency of their choosing. Some contracts are denominated in renminbi and some in euros. So what? Why is that important?
     
  17. Ophiolite Valued Senior Member

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    Clearly we imagine different books. What would be dangerous in writing about Mao, Stalin, Mussolini, Pol Pot, Idi Amin and - for how to do it correctly - Lee Kuan Yew?
     
  18. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    So, you are ignorant of the deals Kissinger made with the Saudis and the then rest of opec circa 1973-5?

    .................
    If my understanding is correct, these deals are still just State Department letters of agreement. Which would mean that the CIC could revisit these deals and renegotiate of abrogate?
     
  19. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Ah..no. But those deals aren't relevant or material per my previous post. It really doesn't matter to the US what currency is used to denominate oil contracts. There just isn't enough business there to cause any threat to the United States or the US Dollar. That trade only amounts to a few hundred billion dollars annually, and oil contracts are currently denominated in currencies other than the US Dollar. The US is an 18 trillion dollar economy, a few hundred billion dollars isn't going to materially impact the dollar.
     
  20. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Nixon/Kissinger did those deals to keep the us dollar as the world's reserve currency(replacing Bretton Woods)-------------to their thinking, the gain went far beyond the actual gain from primary production only.

    ....................
    actually global oil trading comes in well over $1 trillion/year
    .............................
    (misquoting whoever misquoted Dirksen )
    A hundred billion here and a hundred billion there, and pretty soon we're talking real money...........
     
  21. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Do you not know that things have changed since the 1960's? Are you still living in the 1960's? For starters, the US is no longer on the gold standard. The petrodollar is no longer what it once may have been.

    Further, secondary global trading relative to the global oil trade really isn't relevant to a discussion on the petrodollar. The US which is the 2nd largest oil producer trades all of its oil in dollars.

    This petrodollar nonsense is fertile ground for right wing conspiracy theorists and economic numbskulls, but there is no there, there. In an 18 trillion dollar economy, a few hundred billion is nothing.

    And yeah, I get a little tired of all the economic conspiracy nonsense, because the people promulgating them aren't interested in facts or reason.
     
    Last edited: Jan 14, 2017
  22. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    All that aside, we do have letters of agreement obligating a military presence to protect those oil fields.
    So, if we do not need the benefits of oil trading in dollars, then we do not need to honor those military commitments?
     
  23. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Our allies and trading partners are heavily dependent on that oil which makes us heavily dependent on the oil trade. That's why we protect the region and keep the oil flowing.
     

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