Recently the Washington Post confirmed something that some of us on IRC had somewhat deduced. In a nutshell, the last time things started boiling over, in 1999, Pakistan began preparing its nuclear-tipped missiles. This was done without the consent of Prime Minister Sharif; he was apparently unaware of the mobilization until President Clinton clued him in in an emergency meeting at the White House. So who was it that was mobilizing the Pakistani nukes? Well, the prime candidate would have been General Pervez Musharraf, the fellow who shortly thereafter overthrew Sharif and took over as Pakistan's de facto leader. What most people were unaware of at the time was that even in '99 Pakistan had IRBMs capable of throwing nukes. Pakistan's launchers are somewhat crude, but are more than capable of reaching most of India, as well as all of Afghanistan, Iran, and even into parts of China. This analysis piece indicates that as far back as '96, India had IRBMs with maneuverable re-entry vehicles. That's scary as all hell. This means that both sides have them, with 3-5 minute flight times. Command and control holdups being what they are, that may mean that the launch decision rests with local commanders. Many of us have said it before: there is no other region in the world where the probability of a nuclear exchange is so high. It's so high that I myself consider it to be an eventuality unless something can be done to radically reduce tensions. I think that the US is going to have to choose between its two "allies" in the region, and for a variety of reasons, I’m betting on India -- not least because of the poor controls that the Pakistani government has over its own nuclear arsenal and the danger that those nukes could fall into the hands of Islamist extremists who still have a strong presence in that country. Furthermore, I think that siding with India would better align with the US's long-range strategy of counterbalancing China. And as for moral qualms, Pakistan is no longer of any use as an ally in the Afghanistan theater, and are positively endangering our troops through its erratic behavior. And I’m certain that many in this forum would find it morally justified to betray an (erstwhile) ally if we can save 12 million lives. If India and Pakistan become involved in a nuclear exchange, the biggest problem would not be the fallout, which would mostly fall in India and Pakistan - they're big countries - but would be the humanitarian disaster. India and Pakistan simply would not have the resources to control and recover from the atomic destruction of a couple of their cities, and you can double that if the cities hit are Islamabad and New Delhi. You'd have massive unrest and possibly the collapse of their governments, and the world would have no choice but to step in to save the innocent. The repercussions, violence, misery and civil strife could last for decades. Peace.
Nah it won't happen. Neither side is dumb enough to fire missle so the other side has no choice but to fire back.
If it does not happen now, wait for a couple of years. Have you ever heard of "suicide bombers for their cause"? I am sure people in this indegenously built system have passwords (codes)written on the missile itself. The logic necessary to fire these missiles may not be set to a high standard. The designer watching a hollywood movie probably designed the system that way. I remember a certain country building their nuclear power plants. They used the technology and a lot of guess work from openly available sources and were not sure how safe it would be. Luckily the control system was upgraded to American standards using our products - otherwise we would have had several mini Chernobyls by now. (At the time, they were using hand made circuit boards - the kind you solder by hand - with no regard to MTBF ) So, at the trenches - it is scary out there....
Yeah, I think they'll do it sooner or later. They have to. There's no brotherly love between them, so they have to cancel each other out, nothing more anyone can say to that.
Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! Friday, May 31, 2002 Front Page On US front pages and on its prime time, Indo-Pak war is Nightmare No. 1 NEW DELHI, MAY 30: This may be the Big One, bigger than Vietnam, far more scary than the Cuban missile crisis. In fact, this is scarier than scary can get: India and Pakistan will be at war in just about three weeks if US fails the defusing test, Indian missiles with conventional warheads will head for Pakistan whose army, unable to figure out what’s headed their way, will respond with nuclear-tipped missiles... An all-out nuclear war is a distinct possibility. As all the Bush’s men rush in to separate South Asia’s troublesome two, the US media, struck by terror of the Indo-Pak kind, have begun beaming home chilling accounts of a likely N-war in the offing. So ahead of doomsday, if you are to go by a USA Today report, an American government team is already in India to ‘‘plan the possible evacuation’’ of not just 1,000 American troops stationed in Pakistan but upto 63,000 US citizens from the two countries. While he stopped short of going into details of contingency plans, Bush today confirmed there were moves afoot for the safe passage of US citizens should the need arise. But diplomatic circles in New Delhi also read in the Bush statement a clear message to India and Pakistan that raising the pitch was in nobody’s interest. The US, they felt, was going to go the extra mile to cool tempers. USA Today, quoting an unnamed Pentagon official ‘‘with access to plans,’’ reported that evacuation plans were being drawn by the US Pacific Command and State Department. When it happens, the airlift will ‘‘dwarf’’ the 1975 evacuation of Americans from Vietnam. Another Pentagon official was quoted as saying that the flare-up had ‘‘stalled the hunt’’ for al Qaeda members and that the Pakistanis were not doing much to track down Osama bin Laden. Musharraf’s spokesman Maj Gen Rashid Qureshi had also made it known that ‘‘a lot’’ of troops had been moved to the Indian border. ABC-TV said India had armed its missiles with non-nuclear warheads. But what was worrying US officials, it said, was that the Pakistanis would have no idea of the missile-type launched by India and this ‘‘could lead to a horrible miscalculation.’’ In its report fearing the Big One, ABC News wove in Pakistan UN Ambassador Munir Akram’s chilling remark that if they were to give up first-use of nuclear arms, it would give India a ‘‘license to kill’’ his people. The report noted ‘‘there is little doubt’’ that Indian military might, double in size and more advanced, would defeat Pakistan in a conventional fight. Analyst George Perkovich of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace was quoted as describing the situation as ‘‘very hairy business that makes the Cuban missile crisis potentially look like child’s play.’’ The NBC-TV had more or less the same story: India had armed its medium-range missiles with warheads and war could break out in three weeks unless the US intervened with extraordinary steps such as sending Rumsfeld to the region. This report too spoke of plans being drawn for a massive evacuation of American and allied nationals in the event of war. According to NBC, some 2,50,000 people would have to be pulled to safety.The strategic balance between India and Pakistan is back under the scanner. The Washington-based CSIS pegs India’s nuclear missile strength at 60 while the Federation of American Scientists says Pakistan possesses 25 N-missiles. URL: http://www.indian-express.com/full_story.php?content_id=3599
This is not good... URL: http://msnbc.com/news/753586.asp?pne=msn "Senior State Department and intelligence officials told NBC News that U.S. intelligence from the region indicated that both India and Pakistan were keeping their nuclear arsenals warehoused. The officials said Pakistan has both a numerical and qualitative advantage over India in terms of nuclear weaponry and delivery systems. Islamabad has “dozens” of nuclear-capable short- and medium-range missiles available while India has none. “It’s possible they [India] could strap something together, but it is more likely they would rely on aircraft [fighter bombers],” said one intelligence official, who spoke on condition of anonymity. Over the years, the official said, Pakistan has quietly stolen the advantage over India in weapon design and miniaturization, crucial for developing a working nuclear arsenal, while India focused on designing larger weapons." Hope that miniaturization does not head our way....through the terrorists...
Nuclear war in India is a familiar legend for those who have read the Vedas. Whether the detente turns into incineration of countless millions or the religious war stays "conventional" it would be prudent for all who have the means to bring their loved ones out of the area this week, to do so.
"In its report fearing the Big One, ABC News wove in Pakistan UN Ambassador Munir Akram’s chilling remark that if they were to give up first-use of nuclear arms, it would give India a ‘‘license to kill’’ his people. The report noted ‘‘there is little doubt’’ that Indian military might, double in size and more advanced, would defeat Pakistan in a conventional fight. " This is probably one of the more frightening aspects of this confrontation... Pakistan knowing it most likely would lose a conventional war. From their point of view, they may have little choice. If a conventional war did start, and the Indians prevailed through superior numbers and weaponry, would they stop at Kashmir or continue into the Pakistani mainland? This war might have started mostly of Kashmir... but it's unlikely to stop there. While both sides are obviously being stupid about this, perhaps the negotiators should lean more on the Indians than the Pakistanis... they are more likely to attempt a conventional war in the belief they will win it, and therefore more likely to spark a nuclear conflict.
"A single projectile, charged with all the power of the universe; an incandescent column of smoke and fire as bright as 10,000 suns (from) a shaft fatal as the rod of death. "Endowed with the force of thousand-eyed Indra's thunder: It was destructive to all living creatures....Hostile warriors fell to the earth like trees burnt down in a raging fire....Elephants...fell to earth uttering fierce cries...burnt by the energy of that weapon. "A substance like fire has sprung into existence...blistering hills, rivers and trees. All...are being reduced to ashes....You cruel and evil ones, drunk with pride, through that iron bolt you shall become exterminators of your race." The Mahabharata, Ancient Hindu poem
History repeats itself Same place, Same people...different time.... Brother against brother...there is no other enemy like it....
Found on the net: When the Rishi City of Mohenjodaro was excavated by archaeologists in the last century, they found skeletons just lying in the streets, some of them holding hands, as if some great doom had suddenly overtaken them. These skeletons are among the most radioactive ever found, on a par with those found at Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Ancient cities whose brick and stonewalls have literally been vitrified, that is-fused together, can be found in India, Ireland, Scotland, France, Turkey and other places. There is no logical explanation for the vitrification of stone forts and cities, except from an atomic blast. Futhermore, at Mohenjo-Daro, a well planned city laid on a grid, with a plumbing system superior to those used in Pakistan and India today, the streets were littered with "black lumps of glass." These globs of glass were discovered to be clay pots that had melted under intense heat! With the cataclysmic sinking of Atlantis and the wiping out of Rama with atomic weapons, the world collapsed into a "stone age" of sorts, and modern history picks up a few thousand years later Yet, it would seem that not all the Vimanas and Vailixi of Rama and Atlantis were gone. Built to last for thousands of years, many of them would still be in use, as evidenced by Ashoka's "Nine Unknown Men" and the Lhasa manuscript.
Guru Ji, You really think that indians are that dumb. The Country which exploded NUKE IN 1974 still not able to produce Nuclear weapons??? Or the smaller versions?? Either you are joking with us or you are just are not aware of the fact that India possess nuclear tech for more then 20 years now and in above post by Mr. Goofyfish it stated that Indians are capable of sending multiple warheads in it missiles. Now I am afraid that Indians might send some nukes to USA also. What makes you think that they won''t? If their interests conflicts with USA what makes you think that they won't do it?? Anyways, thats a different debate thats really not the point here who would send what to where. But you don't seem to miss the oppertunity to portrtay the Pakistan as evil or terrorists. But thats ok. The point is world need to be more balanced in their views and instead of blaming every thing to one country they should come up with resolution rather the typical anti Pakistan bullshit. Less talk more action. This war will never become nuclear as far as conventional war. Yes it is possible but still it might not even comes to that. Indians and Pakistanis will not go for full scale war. And yes you are right they are the same people and they are not fighting for religion either. Just piece of land. It is pitty and I hope it won't come to war. My prayers and good wishes are with them. Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!
Please skywalker - no personal attacks. Otherwise the force will run away from you....Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image! You dont seem to grasp that my posting - the one you so valiantly quoted is from MSNBC. The only comments I made that you quoted : This is not good... and Hope that miniaturization does not head our way....through the terrorists... And you were able to deduce the above quote? You should work for our FBI. They are looking for people who can grab their ass from thin air. Read something that is invisible and walk on sky! Look, we here in USA and a lot of other people and government are evacuating from India and Pakistan. I have relatives (US Citizens) in India who just got email to get out of India. I am worried. We have a large business presence in India that we are thinking to 'can' it. We will lose millions of dollars. But most importantly, I do not want to lose my employees. Our decision will be based on not what India or Pakistan say but what they do. One of our business partner has people in Pakistan too. And where I stand, it does not look good. Once the main war starts, it will be over in seven days with nuclear exchange - that is what I hear from my contacts here from the simulation. Unless you are close to the people at Pakistan nuclear force - or able to provide specific reasoning, your opinions are well...not much value to me in my decision to pull out my people. Take my word for it - unless Kashmir conflict is resolved by both parties, the nuclear exchange will occur from now and in 12 months (next monsoon). A change in BJP government will only delay the inevitable. (and about Indians being dumb....I can write several volumes on it....Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!)
