Will UK brexit on 29 March 2019?

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Saint, Mar 23, 2019.

  1. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Brexit actually has had the opposite effect.... Sterling devalued somewhat, so the stock market actually has performed pretty well (as the UK stocks were that much cheaper) not withstanding the global 10% correction in the past year.
    You'd have to be a shrewd investor to spot which companies would suffer from Brexit amongst that. Not impossible, though.
     
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  3. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Over coffee this morn, my beloved spouse told me that a musical group traveled to play at various brexit rallies.
    OK
    Do they call themselves the brexiteers? or the brexitears?
    .........................
    I have come to the conclusion that (at least here in the USA) it is most likely that the incessant partisan bickering is done as entertainment/"smoke and mirrors" for the purpose of distracting the electorate: While our millionaires congress goes about the business of enriching their millionaire cronies.
    .........................
    On a personal note:
    At a recent family dinner, I had the distinct impression that I was surrounded by yellow dog democrats.
     
    Last edited: Apr 2, 2019
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  5. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Republican.
    Bothsides is bs.
     
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  7. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    spoken like a rabid yellow dog democrat
    do you wear one of those yellow dog pins/buttons/badges?
    got a bumper sticker?
     
  8. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    which will completely cut the pants off the moral authority of the UK parliamentary system.

    standing there bare bums to the europeans to spank as they see fit.

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    i wonder how many tory voters have conveniently forgotten the tory party created the referendum as an ego parade for voter posturing.
    salt in the wound so much the voters have forgotten what the wound was caused by ?
     
  9. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    On the contrary, if the UK ends up with a soft Brexit it will be a vindication of the parliamentary system, viz. the ability of parliament to control the excesses of an ideologically driven executive. I take Sarkus's point about being rule takers in such a scenario, but the rules in question are rules any medium-sized country wanting to trade with the EU would have to accept in any case.

    Any exporter has to ensure his goods and services comply with the regulations of the country he exports to, whether it be the USA, the EU, China, Australia etc. Since about 50% of UK trade is with the EU, it is blindingly obvious that any UK products and services which might be exported will have to meet EU standards before they even think about any other countries. So what is the point of leaving the system, just to employ a load of extra local bureaucrats to reinstate British Standards etc, when we already have EU ones? So that's the Single Market.

    When it comes to the Customs Union, who can really argue with a straight face that the UK, with a market size of 60m people, can strike better deals with the USA, China, Japan, India etc than the EU, which can offer access to a market of 400m? How is Germany inhibited from being "global" by being in the EU? Doesn't seem to hold them back much, does it?
     
  10. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    Some pretty dramatic poll results are out from YouGov today concerning UK voter intentions in the upcoming European parliamentary elections.

    https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politic...4/17/brexit-party-leading-eu-parliament-polls

    Only days after the party officially launched in Coventry, Nigel Farage's new Brexit party seems to have jumped into the lead. The most obvious place that these voters are coming from is the declining UKIP party.

    But both the Conservatives and Labour are bleeding voters as well, though that had already happened before these polls were conducted. The winners are a whole collection of small insurgent parties. Apparently the majority of voters who voted Conservative in the last UK general election are bailing from the Conservatives in this European election, overwhelmingly headed to the Brexit Party. Labour is losing similar numbers of voters as well since 2017, but these seem to be heading in roughly equal numbers to the Greens, Liberal Democrats and Brexit. The new Change UK party doesn't seem to be moving the needle very much.

    https://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.n...qicng3bz/PeoplesVote_190416_EUElections_w.pdf

    My spectator's view from way over here in California suggests that bad leadership in both of Britain's major parties, the weak and feckless Theresa May (seemingly the toy of the Whitehall elites) and the crypto-commie Jeremy Corbyn (Britain's own Hugo Chavez), might be killing Britain's longtime two party system. Whether that's a good thing is hard to say. But it's certainly going to be a spectacle and an occasion for getting out the popcorn.

    Of course these are European elections, for MEPs. These elections have historically been occasions for protest votes all over Europe, occasions for voters to display their dissatisfaction. How much it translates into voter intention in any upcoming UK general election is unclear.

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    Last edited: Apr 17, 2019
  11. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes. This is not very surprising, since Les Faragistes are a single-issue party, formed for the express purpose of hoovering up all the Leave votes going in this zombie EU election, whereas all other parties have a stance on a range of domestic policy issues, as one needs to have in order to govern, something Farage's party does not aspire to do.

    There is a likelihood that this EU parliament election will be gamed, in the UK, to be a bogus "referendum" on the progress of Brexit so far. That's Farage's plan certainly. He can profit from the fact that pro-EU votes will be divided among several parties, while he offers a simple, reality-free option for any Leaver.

    So I agree with your caveat. I think there is a risk of overinterpreting the significance of charts like these. (The abscissa is only 4 days long!) They tell us little about what would happen in a general election.
     
  12. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    is that a new reality TV series ?
     
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  13. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    ... lol !
     
  14. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Soap opera, more like. Reality can't be this comical.
     
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  15. Benson Registered Member

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    Brexit under May will never happen because she's as much use as an inflatable dartboard.
     
  16. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    lol

    alt-right christian consevatives are breaking away from liberal right collective partys seeking their own pound of moral flesh(globally).
    meanwhile... the internal party hatched job on anyone who is between the tory and the top job is a never ending saga.

    2 distinct partys have broken away from the tory base undermining the collective power of the tory party to hold anyone in the leadership role.

    1 is the anti-brexiteers(those who didnt really want brexit but wanted user pays privatised government)[the 'i told you so party']
    2 the 'it's all your fault now it doesn't seem to work' party

    that leaves around 50% of the base who are struggling to find someone to help them lead a leadership challenge against Te-May(probably should call her Tea-Lady considering she is the one left pushing the trolly while everyone else grabs for the last brexits)

    part of the rub is the torys know they will never be able to galvanize the people behind them(in any way so great as this) to challenge for the leadership unless in times of war.
    so they don't want to finish the brexit until they have used it to make themselves leader, and they mostly all want to be leader 'because' that is why they are there.
     
  17. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    With the election coming up, here's the latest poll results for the UK from Yougov:

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    The change over the last month (15-16 April) is notable.

    Brexit Party up to 35% from 27% (+8)
    Liberal Democrats up to 16% from 9% (+7)
    Labour down to 15% from 22% (-7)
    Greens flat at 10% in both polls
    Conservatives down to 9% from 15% (-6)
    Change-UK down to 5% from 6% (-1)
    UKIP down to 3% from 7% (-4)

    Only two parties appear to be increasing their market share, Brexit and the Liberal Democrats. All of the others are flat or down. The two formerly mainstream parties, Labour and the ruling Conservatives, are down to a combined 24%. The poll is especially humiliating for the ruling Conservatives, who are in fifth place, down to single digits. They seem to be losing most of their rank-and-file voters.

    Presumably the Brexit Party MEPs will find common cause with Matteo Salvini's Lega and Marine LePen's RN MEPs. Along with many of the Eastern Europeans, that might just create an interesting new bloc in the European Parliament. Take that Guy Verhofstadt, Jean Claude Juncker, Emmanuel Macron and Angela Merkel! Of course it wouldn't change anything, since the European Parliament seems to be largely impotent and the EU is actually ruled from Brussels by the European Commission (whatever that is).

    The more interesting question is what impact this seeming realignment in the UK will have on British national politics. (Is Britain really a nation any longer? Or just a peripheral province of the EU?)

    Could this possibly herald one of those periodic shakeups in British politics similar to what happened in the middle 1800's when the Whigs and Tories were replaced by the Liberals and Conservatives, or in the 1920's when the Liberals were replaced by Labour?

    Both the Conservatives and Labour seem to me to be suffering from extraordinarily bad leadership. Theresa May seems well-meaning but hopelessly muddled: weak, feckless and increasingly disingenuous. (I think that her problem is that she listens too closely to her advisers and is receiving terrible advice. She's a weather-cock rather than a leader, pointing whichever way the London bankers in expensive suits point her.) Meanwhile Jeremy Corbyn promises to become Britain's own Hugo Chavez and turn Britain into Europe's new Venezuela. Red flags, hammers and sickles... followed by economic collapse and the secret police making mass arrests for "wrong-thought".

    So both the Conservatives and Labour are bleeding voters to the Brexit party and to the Liberal Democrats. Is it just a European election protest-vote or will these voters consider voting for their new parties in "national" elections? If that happens, the Brexit party and the Liberal-Democrats might just emerge as Britain's new top-two leading parties.

    Either that, or Britain might follow the other Europeans into a more muddled and fragmented political situation with lots of contending special-interest parties and ensuing struggles to form coalition governments.
     
    Last edited: May 17, 2019
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  18. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    i thought David Cameron seemed like a nice chap
    i simply do not agree with privatising government so would never vote for the conservatives even if jesus was their leader.

    why someone who seemed like a fairly nice chap would throw the country under the buss on a roulette wheel of referendum would seem to be a statement of being clearly out of touch with the full working process of the UK parliamentary system.
    unles he had ulterior motives and sought to cut the chaff from the wheat in a public burning of the state at the stake.

    looking at how chaotic and power grabby the torys seem to be, i can see why he would make a point of it.
    knowing that labour were unable to make it past the winning line when the majority want a fresh start.
    torys dont do fresh starts for anyone except themselves so that type of policy would never fly with conservatives.

    it is like man-baby-children leaving dirty dishes in the sink saying they are cleaning up by rendering the sink unusable and removing the dirty dishes from sight.
    then when they run out of dishes asking them if they would prefer it is EVERYONE would do their own dishes.

    the post event morality of the issue seems to be lost as the majority do not follow the nature of how and why politics works to make the country run.
    such is the fickle mind of the average citizen and their ability to carry on with their lifes without falling apart at the woes & throws of commerce and trade and laws and crime.

    the reality of liberal democrats is they are always run by right leaning conservatives seeking liberal regulation rather than liberal society.
    the party while stead in moral assumption, is hollow in policy definition and dynamic management of the political landscape.
    people join such partys as a protest and will easily jump ship at the first sign of not coming in first at the finish line.
    turn-coat-queue-jumper types parading as new age liberals just to get the free sausage.

    blue & red bipartisan politics is suffering the globalization of divide and steal all the tax money
    the previous debate of either side of the house has been rendered to a debate about moral contempt for add water and stir bureaucracy in a globalised market of forced contractual dogma.

    a name at any cost will be just as good as any cost for a name.
    the argument over the egg & which end to cut while a hand is in the till
     
  19. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    the close of may may close
    but what will be done
    tattered and torn and all forlorn
    the parliament went cap in hand
    with knifes in their backs
    lost European benefit tax
    drew straws among their merry band

    doesn't look like a democracy
    looks more like a let them eat poll tax clown car with no one at the wheel

    i vote for Kat n Meg to be princess queen primeministress of the wonky isle

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    march of the may hare gone tomorrow ...
    tea n brexits anyone ?

    cold tea & stale crumpets ...
    knowing the conservatives used Teresa as their crash test dummy to take all the hits as they set themselves up to lead a coup once brexit bad polling had been stuck to her call sheet...
    the curtain is still up and they are all standing their about to stab each other in the back like a punch n judy Shakespeare Macbeth type panto

    now they are back to where they started, with no one to blame for brexit (but themselves)and they still want the front runner job without all the accountability
    lol
    Teresa is well rid of the mess
    maybe Teresa and Jeremy will elope to a tropical island & make a reality tv show
     
    Last edited: May 26, 2019
  20. Benson Registered Member

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    63
    You have to vote for the best of the worst, that used to be the Conservatives. As Theresa has shown, just like Labour, the Tories are a dead loss, thank goodness she has gone. I would say Boris is a forgone conclusion to get the job and I nearly spat my coffee everywhere when Rory Stewart announced his intentions. Rory had to go to a meeting with some other local politicians where a bridge had been swept away in the floods. Yup, they arrived at the wrong side and couldn't get across the river to the village. A local farmer had to take them round on a quad bike one-by-one. Then a year later, Rory got excited that some funding came through but after all that time, he didn't even think about having an action plan. The fool is reactive, not proactive.

    The pressure of Farage reappearing will give the government direction and momentum. Trouble is, under real pressure, Farage tends to flap like a fish out of water. He abandoned UKIP when he should have stayed in politics, he's not a distance runner. I voted for his party for the MEP on 23rd May.

    My ideal prediction/result will be a Boris led government, leaving the EU with no deal.
     
  21. Benson Registered Member

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    As Tim Martin said about Theresa May, "You don't get anywhere being soft". She was the wrong person for the job. Farage is more suited in one sense but I don't believe he could go the distance and when it gets tough and he just needs to stick to his guns for a few more days, he'll buckle and U-turn.

    We could have done with a Thatcher/Trump leader for Brexit.

    As for MEP, can't wait to see Farage to be a thorn in Europe's side.
     
  22. mathman Valued Senior Member

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    It would be interesting to see what the total for anti-brexit parties (Dem-Lib, Green, etc.) turns out to be. Maybe a new referendum is in order.
     
  23. River Ape Valued Senior Member

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    I don't think you can necessarily add up party totals in the way you suggest.
    Certainly the Lib Dems have increasingly defined themselves as the pro-EU party and this is what has brought them most of their increased vote, but who knows how any hundred of thousands of votes they may have garnered simply on the basis of established party loyalty. Worth noting that at one time there was division in the ranks, with some leading members insisting that the result of the referendum, even if deeply regretted, must be honoured. Purveyors of such opinions were hammered into silence.
    In the case of the Greens, I can remember when leading figures were against the EU as a capitalist club. Global warming has been almost as big an issue as Europe here in the UK, especially among the young. There have been major demonstrations and mass arrests. This issue may be responsible for attracting many votes to the Greens.
    In regard to a new referendum, leading members of the government and senior civil servants have been warned that this would lead to serious civil unrest. GCHQ, here in my own home town of Cheltenham, have been fielding online threats and take them very seriously. Discarding the result of a referendum would constitute an extraordinary breach of trust.

    One aspect of the Euro Election has attracted little attention so far beyond the ranks of professional political analysts, and this is the extraordinary gap that has opened up between the races. Although the Conservatives suffered the worst result, the fall in support for Labour was just as bad among white English voters. Labour, however, retained the support of black and Asian voters. This can be appreciated by examining the council areas map to be found on the BBC website. Almost all the little patches of red, indicating a Labour majority, coincide with parts of the country where immigrants have gone furthest to eclipse the native population. Check it out for yourself!
     

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