Worldwide Oil Depletion - Professional Engineers of Ontario

Buried in this publication by the Professional Engineers of Ontario (APEO) is a short blurb about a May 2000 Popular Science article. The latter article predicts significant exhaustion of worldwide oil reserves sometime in the next 10-15 years, and the total lack of a plan to do anything about it. It also quotes as a scientific reference the Oil & Gas Journal.

http://www.peo.on.ca/publications/OD2000Link.pdf

My own calculations indicate shortages in the same period caused by exponentially increasing demand from Asia-Pacific countries, and the simultaneous exhaustion of reserves in North America & Europe. By 2015 almost all the world's oil supply will come from one place: Saudi Arabia. They won't be able to support such extraordinary demand.

 

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I find this interesting, Success_Machine. It seems to make the energy policies have a little more sense when viewed with this in mind. It's just that there is no sense of urgency if this is so.

Ethanol enhanced gas is an easy way to increase the volume of gas available to the consumer. This will not answer the long haul demand for fuel. It will only assist us in the volume there to some small degree. I do have every confidence that this need for transportation will be met on ground level with some other cobbled idea that will get us around. Air flight might be another bowl of beans though. Unless they have some plans for converting the combustion engine to another fuel in which case we the consumer, will be faced with a huge bill to pay for retrofitting the nation. (You didn't think the major corporations would pay did you?)

In your calculations, Success_Machine, did you take into account the newer methods of discovering oil? The deep water stuff also? There is a new, as yet untapped reservoir, reputed to be in the Gulf of Mexico. Estimated to be near the size of the Saudi fields. Expense, level of technology, and the geologic structure of the sands that hold it make it not so attractive to "get it now". But inside sources are pretty sure that it is there.

 

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There has been some recent success in nuclear fusion technology (I'll dig up the link and post it). Russian/American joint programme.

One question though, hydrogen fuel cell? (perhaps mass energy generation will give way to more individual energy generation - look at silicon valley, California state cant't be trusted so Microsoft brings in its own generators)

 

While not the same thing, I have had some experience with osmosis type water makers. They are labor and material intensive. Not to mention that they are expensive to operate and maintain. The membranes run on the neighborhood of $6000 per membrane to change. The last one I worked on took 8 membranes. You do the math. That doesn't count backflushes and daily chemical treatments. What I am getting to here is that if you don't use sterile water you will have to do something with the sediment, chemicals, and minerals that all water possesses. Most likely will be a membrane change.