Your Scientific Predictions

Every year, it seems that new technologies are pushing the bounderies. There is always a new invention that alters lives or changes the way we view things. It is almost time where science fiction has become reality. At the rate in which we progress, what are your predictions for:

Landing on the moon again?

Colonizing the moon?

Having a manned mission to mars?

Colonizing Mars?

Curing AIDS?

Having a Nuclear War?

Futuristic Warfare? (lasers, ion cannons, etc.)

Building intelligent robots that are aware of their existance?

Human Cloning?

Etc (there's a lot more we can think of, but I'm shortening to save space)

 

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My predictions and guesses are:


Landing on the moon again?
Sometime within the next 15 years if needed.

Colonizing the moon?
Probably in 2040 or around then.
Having a manned mission to mars?

I'm not sure about this one. We've have robotic missions to Mars, some of which are on their way now, but they weren't as sucessfull as planned. I'd say around 2080.

Colonizing Mars?
Probably in a hundred years.

Curing AIDS?
Never... unless in the far far future.

Having a Nuclear War?
If it does happen, I'd say within the next 20 years. There's too much going on right now in the world and too many countries are having nuclear programs.

Futuristic Warfare? (lasers, ion cannons, etc.)
30-40 years perhaps. I mean, 30-40 years ago jets were first coming about.

Building intelligent robots that are aware of their existance?
2010. Some unknown company will create one and claim their accomplishment.

Human Cloning?
If the US government doesn't already do it, someone is going to successfully pull it off in the next 10 years, whether or not we know about it.

 

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2005 - Huge High energy particle Accelerator of CERN will come online and will temporarily end the flamewar between Relativists and Aetherologists.....

My personal bet is still on aether, but I would love the results to prove me wrong, as long as scientific progress is made...

 

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We better get serious about colonizing Mars or get serious about finding efficient, cheap energy source because our fossil fuels are nearing depletion.

 

In the next 20 years, maybe sooner if China lives up to their own hype.

In the next 30 years. Again, if China follows through with it's plans, maybe sooner.

Within 30 years, we just have to decide to go.

Because of the long term nature of a manned mission, I would say within ten years after the first landing a colony is feasible.

Never, but progress will probably be made in treating symptoms.

Never, or if so, within 50 years.

5 years, they're already working on lasers and EMP weapons. We won't have "star wars-like" warfare but we'll have lasers soon. We already have unmanned fighters and scouts. Unlike the space program, the military has all the budget it could ever need, so is progressing much faster.

30 years or so, something like this is no easy feat, it'll take time.

5 to 10 years, it's only a matter of time...

 

Agreed, but no physical apparatus could ever prove the existence of etheric particles (e.g., virtual particles, the vacuum energy of empty space, tachyons, deltrons, etc.), so what does CERN have to do with it?

 

Landing on the moon again.. I'd say either another 5 years or never. The moon sucks.

Colonizing the moon, I'd give about 20 years if we found out it didn't suck that bad. I'm talking about really colonizing it.

Manning a mission to Mars, I'd give about 20-25 years.

Curing Aids, about 5-10 years.

Nuclear war... could happen anytime. But I'd say another 10 years to be optimistic.

Futuristic warfare, I see that you've been playing your StarCraft.

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I'd give it 20 years.

Sentient machines, about 30 years.

Human Cloning - I'd give about 15 years to mature enough for it to work reliably.

 

Cherenkov radiation is physicaly measurable and also way back Casper device measured vacume density, how much more physical devices do you need?

Well, we need:

particle accelerators of really huge energy needed to penetrate the really small particles/fields/orbifold whatever you like to call it , or those that have a high energy state like tachyons in order to make some real sense of it all so that we can falsifie string theories / relativity etc. THAT is what CERN has got to do with it. Fermi labs took a big step, Cern will bring it another step further...


Besides it feels good to say: My particle accellerator is bigger than yours

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in 2037 i will become the unquestioned ruler of earth, within 15 minutes of my inauguration all questions (scientific/societal/religious/general trivia) will be answered and earth will enter a 10,000 millennia golden age.

so start kissing my ass now.

 

NASAs original schedule (from when I heard about it, in 1998), was to have a manned mission to Mars in 2012. However, problems in solving the effects of bone-mass loss has pushed this schedule back until 2020.

There is no specific reason to send a person to mars prior to terra forming, if we decide to, and if it is possible to terraform the planet. What, specifically, can a Human do that a couple of robots can't (except die if something goes wrong?) Why exactly should we send manned mars missions before the planet is ready for us?

as for everything else, I don't have any specific info on, but I bet the answer will be "at some point".

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Each December the journal <I>Science</I> does quite a good job at highlighting the year’s most interesting research from various fields. They also do a “scorecard” of how the year’s results lived up to expectations from the year before and give some areas to watch for in the coming year. Here are the <I>Science</I> 2003 areas to watch.......

<B>Whither the ice?</B> Glaciologists are scrambling to sort out which of the world's ice houses may be about to empty themselves under the onslaught of greenhouse warming. Mountain glaciers are clearly receding, and high-mountain tropical glaciers could soon disappear. But the behavior of the great ice stores of Greenland, Antarctica, and West Antarctica is proving more subtle. Satellite-borne radar and other new geophysical tools will be monitoring the comings and goings of ice in these constantly shifting sheets, providing a better understanding of what our warmer future holds.

<B>A sun-climate connection. </B> As more and more wiggles matching the waxing and waning of the sun show up in records of past climate, researchers are grudgingly taking the sun seriously as a factor in climate change. They have included solar variability in their simulations of the past century's warming. And the sun seems to have played a pivotal role in triggering droughts and cold snaps. To gain complete respectability, sun-climate researchers are working to identify the physical link between relatively feeble solar fluctuations and climate. A leading candidate: solar-modulated cosmic rays and their effects on clouds.

<B>Budget bust. </B> Will 2002 be remembered as the year the good times ended? That's likely to be a little too dire, but it's a growing worry among scientists in developed nations, as a slumping world economy could dramatically slow the growth of government and private spending on basic science. Italy, Germany, and France are already facing cuts or freezes in government spending. In the United States, cratering stock prices have shrunk university and foundation endowments by one-third or more. The White House has already signaled that it won't support continued double-digit increases for biomedical research spending. And war with Iraq could quash growing hopes of doubling taxpayer outlays on the physical sciences. But there is a bright side: Low interest rates are allowing stretched institutions to keep many lab construction projects on track.

<B>R-evolutionary genomics. </B> With genome sequences for most of the major microbial groups in hand and ever more DNA of complex organisms being deciphered, researchers expect to be able to make better sense of life's many evolutionary relationships. Meanwhile, studies of human genetic variation will continue to shed light on our deep past, and the chimp genome project may begin to reveal what makes us human.

<B>A different light. </B> Several satellites tuned to wavelengths outside the glamorous optical band should shine in 2003. The European Space Agency's Integral mission, launched in October, will soon observe gamma rays from black holes, supernovas, and other scenes of violence, and NASA's Swift explorer will start tracking gamma ray bursts by December. The Space Infrared Telescope Facility, slated for launch in April, will examine the heat from distant galaxies and dusty clouds where stars and planets form. And astronomers will get their best map of microwave ripples in the sky--a chilly imprint of the big bang--when results from the Microwave Anisotropy Probe are released early in the year.

<B>Important matter. </B> In 2002, two rival teams at the CERN laboratory near Geneva produced cold, slow-moving antihydrogen atoms--antielectrons orbiting antiprotons--for the first time. Antihydrogen will be a powerful tool for studying the difference between matter and antimatter, but scientists have to trap significant amounts of it before they can zap it with a laser and measure its properties. It might not happen in the coming year or even in the next, but there's no question that the game is afoot. Antihydrogen futures are brighter than ever.

 

/Landing on the moon again?

20 years tops. need to have a shuttle that can make the trip.

/Colonizing the moon?

I'm guessing 30 or 40 before base is built there, but more like 60 or 70 (years) before civilians could live there. Hell maybe longer.

/Having a manned mission to mars?

Within 20 years.

/Colonizing Mars?

Boy that's hard to say because other tech will allow or disallow the timing. I'd guess not before 150 years at this rate. Also depends on whether you mean terraforming, etc.

/Curing AIDS?

Hmm.... 15 years tops I'd think.

/Having a Nuclear War?

Depends on what you mean. I'd guess that some rogue will drop a nuke or bio or chem, but I doubt there will be nuclear war. It's pandora's box, it can't be opened.

/Futuristic Warfare? (lasers, ion cannons, etc.)

What about rail guns!?!?!

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Well, I dunno because...

/Building intelligent robots that are aware of their existance?

of this one. if we are able to build intellegent machines (which I'm almost sure that we will within 50 years or so) then all bets are off on everything else. as long as we have a good relationship with AI, we stand to benefit in ways that are unimaginable to our limited intellect. of course they may just decide to off us as inferiors unworthy of such graces. it's hard to say what could happen in that unknown territory.

/Human Cloning?

within 10 years. I wouldn't be surprised if a really rich guy hasn't funded and had it done already but keeping it quiet.

 

Re: Re: Your Scientific Predictions

Rail guns are sweeeeeet. Someone should give me one.. and a space ship. Shoots a projectile 5 km/s.. you could shoot into space.

 

There is plenty of energy and room to support the Earth's growing population for fifty to a hundred years- after that there will have to be some new strategies, but I am optimistic, so I think things will get better not worse, barring accidents...

It will be a while before any benefit or profit is realised from going to the Moon;
but there is much to be gained from doing so; after a hundred years or so, the surface of the Moon could be collecting solar energy for use in space based habitats, and perhaps even for sale to Earth.
Mars is a place that could become inhabited, if solar collection on the Moon and in solar orbit happens on a large scale; but the timescale is thousands of years before it becomes comfortable; other types of space habitat will be in use before that.

Defeating AIDS will be a test of genetic manipulation, rather than medicine; this opens the door to worse diseases created with malicious intent.

Robots will become self conscious and self reliant; but don't expect them to be anything like humans, unless specially required to be so; they will have a vast range of possible configurations, both physically and mentally.

The main thing about the future is that it will be both strange, and everyday; it will continue to happen one day at a time, and we will soon adapt to whatever it throws at us and want more.
one possible future for humanity(among many)
_________________
SF worldbuilding at
http://www.orionsarm.com/main.html

 

Hi buffys;
Hi buddy. So, how ya doin'?

 

I somehow doubt that mars has a lot of oil for us to use to solve our energy crisis…

 

ya, as much as i want to see mars colonized and think its a worthy endeavor its not going to solve any problems for us. If we dont figure our shit out here we're screwed, mars wont save us.

 

the humen race will die off here on earth by our own hands and robots and cyborgs will rule outerspace.

 

Your website www.orionsarm.com is an idiot.

 

Really...