Bird Flu: major problem

[Darth Terent 666]

As you all know, the avian flu has been sweeping across Asia, Africa, and Europe. This is turning out to be a major problem.

Recenlty, the bird flue has turned up in France, the UK, and other European nations. This is just showing the ability of the flu to spread across the world with rapid results. First turning up in China, Taiwan, Vietnam, and other Eastern countries, it has now spread to the west.
We could be seeing a worldwide epidemic in perhaps a few months.

With the many planes that criss-cross the world daily, SURELY soon someone might transmit the disease to uninfected parts of the world (USA, Australia, etc.).
The problem is that if this were to happen, we won't be prepared.
There are 6 billion people on this planet, and we don't have enough vaccines and treatment centers for all of them. If a worldwide pandemic were to begin, it would estimate at TRILLIONS of dollars, and there would be billions of casualties. A semi-recent case like this occured in the early 20th century, where the spanish flu killed over 10 million people.
The spanish flu, however, isn't as bad as the bird flu. If the bird flu turns into a pandemic, a very realistic scenario within the next year, then you can expect billions of deaths.
However, recenlty scientists and political minds have debated and tried to find a solution.
I just hope they can find it in time.

What do yall think?

 

[Neildo]

There is no bird flu. People are quick to blame it on the bird flu. The bird flu's just an excuse to pad the pockets of Donald Rumsfeld's ol' company by buying their Tamiflu.

- N

 

[invert_nexus]

With the many planes that criss-cross the world daily, SURELY soon someone might transmit the disease to uninfected parts of the world (USA, Australia, etc.).

Someone?
How would they do that? The bird flu is not transmissable between humans at present.
Now. If that ever changes, then perhaps we'd be in for some trouble. But that's not a problem so far.
It's certainly not a 'very realistic scenario within the next year'. It's a possibility. But a slim one.

 

[Darth Terent 666]

Yes, but the bird flu virus is mutating. Recently on CNN, they had a scientist explain.

The bird flu virus is mutating to the point where it is transmittable between humans. If someone were in contact alot with others, then they do have a chance of transmitting the virus.

And since the bird flu is mutating, it is possible that within the year it will mutate to the point where it will EASILY transmit between humans. If that occured, and it is possible, then it will be a huge problem.

 

[invert_nexus]

Umm.
No.
The bird flu is not 'mutating to the point where it is transmittable between humans'. This suggests a goal towards which the flu is mutating.
The flu just mutates. Randomly.
The fault is a shitty transcriptase. (Well. Not so shitty seeing as how this is how flu's evolve so well.)

But. It MIGHT mutate to become transmissable between humans.
It might mutate to become completely unable to infect humans at all.
It might even mutate in such a way that it beefs up the intelligence of birds it infects and thus usher in a planet of the birds... This is pretty unlikely though.

These are all only chance mutations. There is no certainty that the bird flu will ever mutate to a human flu.

But. Yes. It is possible. And if it happens, then there might be some trouble.
We'll survive though.

 

[Darth Terent 666]

But still, it is good to have a plan if a situation does occur.
So far, there have only been around 60 deaths of the bird flu, but scientists even said that the bird flu is becoming more easily transmitable. That suggests that the bird flu virus WILL become easier to transmit very soon. Although your point is probably true, about the flu randomly mutating, so far its mutating in the "direction" of being easy to transmit. And with more and more people becoming infected every year, you never know what will happen.
The thing is, what will we do?

And if this occurs, Europe, Africa, Asia, and possibly other regions better look out.
Africa is already battered by AIDS, so bird flu is going to present a bigger burden.

 

[2inquisitive]

The latest incidents seem to indicate that the H5N1 virus (bird flu) can be transmitted between humans. I believe it was in Indonesia that type of transmission occured. A young boy visited his aunt at her residence, where she kept chickens, or some type of fowl. Both her and the boy contracted bird flu. I am not sure if the boy already had symptoms of the flu when he returned home, or developed them after his return home. But there were no fowl at his home. Eight family members contracted H5N1 bird flu in total. Seven of them died, the boy's father the only survivor. None of the family members had been around chickens, except the boy and his aunt at a her residence. Interestingly, only blood relatives caught the flu. The spouses of the infected relatives did not contract the flu. It is speculated that genetics may have something to do with transmission via human-to-human. This is not the only case where several family members have contracted the flu, but it is the first one where some family members contracted the flu with no evidence of contact with any chickens or birds of any type. It does not seem to be easily transmitted between humans, but human-to-human transmission cannot be ruled out.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

As you all know, the avian flu has been sweeping across Asia, Africa, and Europe. This is turning out to be a major problem.

As has been pointed out, H5N1 has spread via wild migratory birds, not humans. As has also been pointed out it rarely infects humans although, unfortunately, it has a high mortality rate when it does. When humans are infected there seems to be very little human-to-human transmission. So, overall H5N1 poses little threat to humans in its present form. It poses a huge potential economic threat to poultry industries.

The spanish flu, however, isn't as bad as the bird flu.

What? How do you come to that conclusion? The Spanish Flu killed tens of millions of people; H5N1 has killed a few dozen (I think). Once again it needs to be stated that H5N1 rarely infects humans with very little human-to-human transmission.


Everyone immediately jumps on mutation as a mechanism by which H5N1 might gain the ability to easily infect humans and to easily transfer between humans. If it does gain these two attributes then it will indeed be the terrible disease that you describe. But mutation is not the most likely mechanism by which avian flu viruses gain the ability to infect humans. The most common and likely avenue is hybridization. This occurs when a person is simultaneously infected with a human flu virus and an avian flu virus. In doubly infected cells the genomes of the two different virus strains can swap genes. The avian flu virus can gain human viral genes that enable it to easily infect human cells.

But interestingly, there was a beautiful paper published in Nature last year where scientists managed to extract Spanish Flu nucleic acid from 90 year old tissue samples of victims. They managed to sequence the Spanish Flu genome and synthetically remake the virus. As predicted, it was extremely virulent. Analysis of the genome sequence revealed that the infamous Spanish Flu of 1918 was indeed an avian flu virus that directly mutated into a strain that could easily infect and spread in humans without the need for any hybridization. So there is evidence that it can happen. H5N1 does pose a danger and we need to prepare for it, no matter how unlikely.

 

[Darth Terent 666]

HERCULES:
The bird flu is spreading throughout the Old World, but I never said between humans. I just said its spreading.

Anyways, the spanish flu so far is worse, but I'm saying that if the bird flu goes to the point where it EASILY transmits between humans, then it really is a worse disease. If you're infected with the bird flu, then there is a low chance of survival, and considering that we don't have many vaccines, I do estimate that if such a thing happened, the death toll would be in the billions (most likely).

And even if the H5N1 virus doesn't mutate to the point where it is easily transmittable between humans, it still has massive economic damage. The chicken industry does make lots of money, and without it, there might be slight economic decline.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

I do estimate that if such a thing happened, the death toll would be in the billions (most likely).

Billions?

Do you realize there are 6 billion people on the entire planet? You’re saying it will wipe out the majority of humans on the planet? I don’t think so. Even the worst estimates from educated scientists do not come close. I am not aware of any scientific opinions that H5N1 would be significantly worse than the Spanish Flu. The largest upper estimate of world-wide deaths if the strain morphed into a human virus that I can recall was 100 million, around double the Spanish Flu toll. But that was an absolute worst case scenario. All reasonable predictions for a morphed-H5N1 pandemic have been roughly similar to the Spanish Flu.

 

[Fraggle Rocker]

The Spanish Flu killed tens of millions of people

The Spanish flu didn't kill tens of millions of people. Most types of influenza virus are seldom the cause of death in humans. The virus weakens the immune system and secondary bacterial infections are what get us. The Spanish Flu would not have been remarkably worse than a typical every-ten-years-or-so "epidemic" of Swine Flu or Asiatic Flu or whatever they're going to call the next one, if they'd had merely the antibiotics of the 1940s to treat the opportunistic bacteria. For all we know the Spanish Flu is still out there and can't get any attention because of all the competition.

I haven't studied the Bird Flu but my impression is that the reason it's worse is that the virus itself compromises the body and hastens death rather than leaving it up to the bacteria. Perhaps it does it like HIV, by simply suppressing the immune system so thoroughly that we eventually fail to stop a really robust bacteria and it takes over. I don't believe it's like the family of viruses we call "cancer" that rearrange other parts of our metabolism like cellular reproduction.

BTW, the Spanish Flu had very little to do with Spain. It arose in many parts of the world more or less simultaneously. But much of the world was engrossed in World War I, and none of the combatant countries wanted to admit to the world that they had a public health problem of that magnitude, for fear that their enemies would think that it would therefore be a great time to attack. Little did they know that their enemies were in the same boat and it would have been a great time to call a truce and devote all of their resources to public health and resume killing each other when they were healthy again. Anyway, Spain was neutral in WWI and saw no reason to suppress the information. So everybody thought that was where it started.

Point being: Even ninety years ago international travel was so swift and common that a new breed of flu spread around the globe faster than anybody could name it. We haven't got a prayer with the Bird Flu. Somebody will bring it here, it's inevitable.

 

[Hercules Rockefeller]

The Spanish flu didn't kill tens of millions of people. Most types of influenza virus are seldom the cause of death in humans. The virus weakens the immune system and secondary bacterial infections are what get us.

Oh for god's sake, that's ridiculous sophist semantics. It's like saying that it's not bullets that kill people, it's the loss of blood. It is quite safe and correct to say that Spanish Flu infections killed tens of millions of people.

The Spanish Flu would not have been remarkably worse than a typical every-ten-years-or-so "epidemic" of Swine Flu or Asiatic Flu or whatever they're going to call the next one

That is incorrect. The Spanish Flu was a special case. Read the paper that I mentioned above. Minor epidemics occur every few years due to the emergence of new human strains from existing human strains as a result of mutation. Less-frequent major changes, known as antigenic shift, create totally new human strains from other animal strains against which the human population has little protective immunity, thereby causing relatively rare worldwide pandemics. This was the case with the 1918 'Spanish' flu, one of the most deadly outbreaks in recorded history, which killed 30-50 million people worldwide, the 1957 'Asian' flu, and the 1968 'Hong Kong' flu.

BTW, the Spanish Flu had very little to do with Spain.

Did I say it was? I do not believe I did.

It arose in many parts of the world more or less simultaneously.

No, I do not think that is correct. It had a point of origin and radiated out from there.

 

[Darth Terent 666]

Billions?

Do you realize there are 6 billion people on the entire planet? You’re saying it will wipe out the majority of humans on the planet? I don’t think so. Even the worst estimates from educated scientists do not come close. I am not aware of any scientific opinions that H5N1 would be significantly worse than the Spanish Flu. The largest upper estimate of world-wide deaths if the strain morphed into a human virus that I can recall was 100 million, around double the Spanish Flu toll. But that was an absolute worst case scenario. All reasonable predictions for a morphed-H5N1 pandemic have been roughly similar to the Spanish Flu.[/QUOTE]

I see your point, but [B]If[/B] and only [B]if[/B] it mutates to the point where it can easily be transmitable between humans, then we do have a problem. There are not even 1 billion vaccines, and considering that very few are immune to the disease and it has a high mortality rate, if this situation were to occur, and we're unprepared, it could very well be in the billions of deaths. It is a possibility.