China's Emergence As A Global Superpower
- Thread starter Saint
- Start date
How often does the United States replace their main offensive weapons? Not often. Every what, 15-20 years we get something new for one branch of the military? Just what is gonna happen once China steals all our technology and retrofits their whole army using it with all the money in trade they have and will continue to gain? They'll be able to upgrade their whole army to the same equipment we have before we do with new stuff, unless we start pumping out all those drone planes, tanks, and other robotics in a hurry.
- N
bandwidthbandit
Registered Senior Member
The US is at least a generation ahead of China in terms of most of its weapons systems. By the time they catch up, we will be deploying the next generation. All of this is really mute. A war with China would likely lead to a nuclear exchange and conventional weapons won't matter much then. That's also why both sides are going to do everything they can avoid a conflict. China is focused on being a regional power. Taiwan is the most likely source of a conflict but even there I don't think China would act militarily unless they were positive they could keep us out of it altogether. They would not want to risk the escalation to nuclear weapons. Why take us on militarily when they can be the richest nation on Earth?
Am I the only one here who realizes that China does not value the lives of its citizens and that it had a nearly unlimited capacity to go cheap? Fancy hi-tech weaponry can be overwhelmed by sheer numbers. If we can knock down 100,000 targets with our defenses and China sends 500,000 missiles, it won't matter what they send. It won't even matter if their stuff is of such god-awful quality that even Walmart wouldn't try to sell it.
The one thing that will stop them is to make it too expensive for them to try, and that's hard to do.
The one thing that will stop them is to make it too expensive for them to try, and that's hard to do.
crazy151drinker
Registered Senior Member
Thats because the expensive part is developing the weapon, not the manufacturing. And as we have noted they buy/steal so they dont have to.
MetaKron said:
I'm not sure, but I think building 500,000 ICBMs capable of hitting the US from China just might be a bit more difficult and intricate than just throwing a gazillion ignorant Chinese peasants at the problem. Of the gazillion-trillion Chinese, how many do you think are capable of building an ICBM? I ain't sure, but I think an ICBM is a little bit more complicated than a little plastic toy that they send to Wal-Mart.
Baron Max
MetaKron said:
You wouldn't consider the certainty of overwhelming nuclear retaliation "expensive"?
Baron Max said:
Yes, there is no cheap way to make ICBMs. Those things have to blast into space, fly to the other side of the planet, re-enter the atmosphere, and cruise down to the desired target, all without damaging their payload (nuclear warheads are fairly intricate devices, and aren't cheap to come by either) or getting off course. While China has tons of cheap, unskilled laborers, that's not what you need to make an ICBM. You need a small number of highly skilled laborers, and a bunch of highly advanced manufacturing systems. Neither of which are cheap. China is certainly capable of producing efective strategic weaponry, but not in quantities that could overwhelm America's defenses. Even if they did manage to build hundreds of thousands of ICBMs, they would never launch them at America, as the US has more than enough retliatory capabilities to wipe China off the map.
You make some excellent points, Quadraphonics. But I saw the following and had to respond:
And in reading that, it just struck me ...how extensive would the damage have to be to destroythe USA versus that same damage needed to "destroy China? I.e., if China actually wiped out everything west of the Rocky Mountains, the USA would still be a powerful nation and still capable of massive retaliatory strikes.
If the USA destroyed only a few major cities in China, then it would become hopelessly destroyed as a cohesive nation and incapable of the even the most minor of national functions, much less international war.
Baron Max
quadraphonics said:
And in reading that, it just struck me ...how extensive would the damage have to be to destroythe USA versus that same damage needed to "destroy China? I.e., if China actually wiped out everything west of the Rocky Mountains, the USA would still be a powerful nation and still capable of massive retaliatory strikes.
If the USA destroyed only a few major cities in China, then it would become hopelessly destroyed as a cohesive nation and incapable of the even the most minor of national functions, much less international war.
Baron Max
Baron Max said:
Even if China (or whoever else) was successful in wiping out ALL of the continental USA, the US would *still* have enough ICBMs on submarines and long-range bombers to field an overwhelming retaliation. Indeed, the whole US strategic response system was designed for dealing with a power that definitely had enough ICBMs and warheads to fuck America up (the USSR). Russia has similar capabilities for the same reasons. Another point here is that, since the US response would be launched from submarines, China would be destroyed before the first of their missiles ever reached the continental US.
Baron Max said:
Right, although China is roughly the same size as continental America, their population is much more concentrated. See http://www.landingchina.com/china_map/china_population.htm . The western 2/3 of China is pretty arid and sparsely populated. Around 10 ICBMs with MIRV warheads would pretty much wipe out China's population centers, and another 5 or 6 would take care of their military installations. To do the same damage to America, you'd need ten times as many. For ICBMs with single warheads, you'd have to multiply that by another 5 or 10. Factoring in the US lead in early warning and anti-missile systems, you need to up the number by another factor of 10. Even then, you won't be able to destroy America's means of nuclear retaliation (which is hidden on subs), and so you still get the living crap nuked out of you. Given that, it's hard to see China being dumb enough to try it...
Another thing to consider is that in the scenario where the population centers of both countries get destroyed, there will still be plenty of good, un-nuked areas to rebuild American cities. Indeed, half of America's population lives outside of the cities anyway. In China, on the other hand, pretty much all of the usable land would be irradiated, making recovery very difficult.
Without reading ALL of the above posts: the answer to the question "Will China overtake the U.S. one day" is "No"!
China has absolutely no desire to do so and is quite preoccupied with other matters: mostly internal matters.
They have an intensive interest in making sure that Taiwan, R.O.C. remains a part of Mainlaind China, P.R.C. (the People's Republic of China). And the United States has an intensive interest in maintaining Taiwan's sovereignty and security. This could and may cause a conflict between Mainland China and the U.S. However, at present, China would not ne able to win this conflict. But in the future, even if they could, they would not want to take over the U.S., not could they. The social and economic differences would make any such takeover impossible.
China has absolutely no desire to do so and is quite preoccupied with other matters: mostly internal matters.
They have an intensive interest in making sure that Taiwan, R.O.C. remains a part of Mainlaind China, P.R.C. (the People's Republic of China). And the United States has an intensive interest in maintaining Taiwan's sovereignty and security. This could and may cause a conflict between Mainland China and the U.S. However, at present, China would not ne able to win this conflict. But in the future, even if they could, they would not want to take over the U.S., not could they. The social and economic differences would make any such takeover impossible.
I was talking about cobalt warheads earlier because China could conceivably have a threat to hold over the head of the U.S. that they can handle better than the U.S. can, an ultimate suicide bomb that we will not risk them triggering. Both sides can keep a certain number of people safe until the radiation dies down.
If they do become interested, the question might be "What can they count on us to hold still for?" The more we are beaten psychologically and the lower our resources the more they can beat us up without retaliation. We've been squandering military resources as if there will never be another superpower on Earth to oppose us. Come on, people, a trillion dollars in debt to pay for a war against a country that even the Swiss could have whipped? We've managed to poor more stuff down a rathole than anyone ever has before in history, I think. A trillion dollars could have been used to make us an unstoppable force against the entire planet. What do we actually have for a military now?
If they do become interested, the question might be "What can they count on us to hold still for?" The more we are beaten psychologically and the lower our resources the more they can beat us up without retaliation. We've been squandering military resources as if there will never be another superpower on Earth to oppose us. Come on, people, a trillion dollars in debt to pay for a war against a country that even the Swiss could have whipped? We've managed to poor more stuff down a rathole than anyone ever has before in history, I think. A trillion dollars could have been used to make us an unstoppable force against the entire planet. What do we actually have for a military now?
Metakron: This forum is 11 pages long. I don't have the time to see what you posted about cobalt warheads compared to what we have, and I don't have the physics background to uderstand the difference. But I'd like it very much if you could summarize it briefly!
In any case, politically speaking, China has no reason or incentive to destroy or takeover the U.S. That would be really dumb on their part whether if or they could not do it - and they know that. That's an undeniable fact. They do not have the means, the power, or the intellectual capacity - in terms of controlling a society as the U.S. - to take us over. At this point in history, it would be impossible for them to do. They would be taking on far more than they could chew, and creating an overwelming burden to their own country in the process. Now for them to take on a small island like Taiwan is a different story.
In any case, politically speaking, China has no reason or incentive to destroy or takeover the U.S. That would be really dumb on their part whether if or they could not do it - and they know that. That's an undeniable fact. They do not have the means, the power, or the intellectual capacity - in terms of controlling a society as the U.S. - to take us over. At this point in history, it would be impossible for them to do. They would be taking on far more than they could chew, and creating an overwelming burden to their own country in the process. Now for them to take on a small island like Taiwan is a different story.
Valich, there is at least one reason for China to take over the U.S. It could be very profitable. The dominance that they enjoy now feeds a very few greedy pig billionaires, generals of the Red Army who rake in the dough bigtime. Even wealthy people who have no ambition to do anything real with their lives, like Bill Gates, cannot stop wanting more power and more money. There isn't any point to making that much more profit, but is that going to stop them? When the U.S. feeds ideals of individual freedom, it is a threat to the profit of China's leaders. They may decide that it is time to remove that threat some day.
A cobalt bomb is a type of nuclear bomb that somehow places the chemical element cobalt next to the nuclear explosion. Once irradiated the cobalt becomes cobalt-60, which is an extremely nasty contaminant, a gamma emitter with a half-life of just over 5 years. Zinc is probably a better material to use since it is cheaper and has a shorter half-life. Either type of bomb can destroy all life over an arbitrarily large area. The practical limit to its destructiveness is the amount of cobalt or zinc that can be shipped with the bomb. China has vessels that can ship millions of tons. The prevailing wind patterns would dictate where to place it.
How possible is a takeover right now? There have already been successful efforts by US governments to make people unable to defend themselves in a military conflict and unwilling. China owns a lot of the production of necessities. I too buy way too much stuff from Wal-Mart, America's outlet store for China. There have also been many successful efforts to degrade our quality of life to the point that a lot of people don't care to fight for it, not that we can run down to Wal-Mart and arm ourselves if it all comes down. Our own forces will be busy confiscating weapons from our own citizens when it happens. It's like this: We're screwed if an attack occurs and our own soldiers start rounding up citizens, and if we see this happen, the best thing we can do for ourselves is kill off those soldiers.
In short, they can conquer us best by making us do it to ourselves. They are already doing this.
A cobalt bomb is a type of nuclear bomb that somehow places the chemical element cobalt next to the nuclear explosion. Once irradiated the cobalt becomes cobalt-60, which is an extremely nasty contaminant, a gamma emitter with a half-life of just over 5 years. Zinc is probably a better material to use since it is cheaper and has a shorter half-life. Either type of bomb can destroy all life over an arbitrarily large area. The practical limit to its destructiveness is the amount of cobalt or zinc that can be shipped with the bomb. China has vessels that can ship millions of tons. The prevailing wind patterns would dictate where to place it.
How possible is a takeover right now? There have already been successful efforts by US governments to make people unable to defend themselves in a military conflict and unwilling. China owns a lot of the production of necessities. I too buy way too much stuff from Wal-Mart, America's outlet store for China. There have also been many successful efforts to degrade our quality of life to the point that a lot of people don't care to fight for it, not that we can run down to Wal-Mart and arm ourselves if it all comes down. Our own forces will be busy confiscating weapons from our own citizens when it happens. It's like this: We're screwed if an attack occurs and our own soldiers start rounding up citizens, and if we see this happen, the best thing we can do for ourselves is kill off those soldiers.
In short, they can conquer us best by making us do it to ourselves. They are already doing this.
I think if they really wanted to they could. They have millions of people to send to war, they have tons of mountains to hide weapons and troops in, and I believe they have the budget for a fullscale attack. Also, their technology is around the level of our technology. But they won't because we're a valuable trading partned for them(just look at all the stuff we have that's made in China)and they'd also have to fight our allies.
what allies? europe,russia,india?they hate our guts. russia is allready arming china and giving them oil rights,india and china have been signing treaties,and thanks to Ws dumbass we alienated ALL of europe.
mexico would probably join up with china,they DO hate us after all.
our only ally is canada,and they are WEAK.
it would basicly be the US against china and russia.
and sice we LOVE buying chinse crap,we are at a disadvantage.
no manufacturing,no leadership,no military skills,a fat stupid population of cowards and idiots.
china is going to walk right over us.
every single american MUST get 2 kills to beat china in ground combat,thats every man woman and child in ALL of america,JUST to beat there TRAINED ARMED soldiers,and then china STILL has 1.2 billion people left.
and they send over thousands of GIANT cargo ships everyday,if 1 out of 1000 is full of chinese soldiers,they can have MILLIONS here by tommorow.
china is the ONLY superpower on earth.we are stupid idiots that belive ANY hype from our government regardless of how wrong they are.
we have been jerking our selves off with this super power crap for so long that we didnt even notice we got weak while china grew strong.
its only a matter of time.
mexico would probably join up with china,they DO hate us after all.
our only ally is canada,and they are WEAK.
it would basicly be the US against china and russia.
and sice we LOVE buying chinse crap,we are at a disadvantage.
no manufacturing,no leadership,no military skills,a fat stupid population of cowards and idiots.
china is going to walk right over us.
every single american MUST get 2 kills to beat china in ground combat,thats every man woman and child in ALL of america,JUST to beat there TRAINED ARMED soldiers,and then china STILL has 1.2 billion people left.
and they send over thousands of GIANT cargo ships everyday,if 1 out of 1000 is full of chinese soldiers,they can have MILLIONS here by tommorow.
china is the ONLY superpower on earth.we are stupid idiots that belive ANY hype from our government regardless of how wrong they are.
we have been jerking our selves off with this super power crap for so long that we didnt even notice we got weak while china grew strong.
its only a matter of time.
Why all this war with China talk? There is no possibility of one, unless the economically collapsing US thinks in terms of "regime change" via military, but that is unlikely after its Iraq experience (with regime change). China is building up it military with a greatly increased budget, but look what it is buying/building.
Nothing useful for attacking the US, only for defending the mainland against possible US attack when they re integrate Taiwan. That, in all probability, will occur peacefully as more Taiwan / mainland business deals are made. Direct airplane flight have been resumed and many businessmen are now going to commercial exhibits, both ways.
Let us return to discuss the real threats to US security:
(1) US Government spending 4% of GNP* more domestically each year than it takes in as tax revenues. (This will grow rapidly with “baby boomers starting to retire. They were the highest payers of taxes and will soon be only collecting.)
(2) A global trade deficit of 6% of GNP* each year and growing.
(3) Both (1) & (2) getting worse each year.
(4) US must compete with China et. al. for oil = higher prices.
(5) Higher interest rates are now required to get foreigners to finance (1) & (2) and soon will be much higher. - US residents can not finance this debt as they are already non-savers and in deep in debt, mainly with mortgages on houses but also on cars. Japan and China have been financing it, but both now are growing and need capital at home also. China will use its dollar hoard to buy oil in the ground and raw materials it needs, including food stocks. (Brazil, as exporter of food and raw materials, has done well - historically large trade surplus this year but not good for me as the dollar is already down in value here 20% this year alone.)
______________________________
*How long would you last if you were spending 10% more than the total value of everything you produce and earn, every year? That is the real threat to US. Get real.
Nothing useful for attacking the US, only for defending the mainland against possible US attack when they re integrate Taiwan. That, in all probability, will occur peacefully as more Taiwan / mainland business deals are made. Direct airplane flight have been resumed and many businessmen are now going to commercial exhibits, both ways.
Let us return to discuss the real threats to US security:
(1) US Government spending 4% of GNP* more domestically each year than it takes in as tax revenues. (This will grow rapidly with “baby boomers starting to retire. They were the highest payers of taxes and will soon be only collecting.)
(2) A global trade deficit of 6% of GNP* each year and growing.
(3) Both (1) & (2) getting worse each year.
(4) US must compete with China et. al. for oil = higher prices.
(5) Higher interest rates are now required to get foreigners to finance (1) & (2) and soon will be much higher. - US residents can not finance this debt as they are already non-savers and in deep in debt, mainly with mortgages on houses but also on cars. Japan and China have been financing it, but both now are growing and need capital at home also. China will use its dollar hoard to buy oil in the ground and raw materials it needs, including food stocks. (Brazil, as exporter of food and raw materials, has done well - historically large trade surplus this year but not good for me as the dollar is already down in value here 20% this year alone.)
______________________________
*How long would you last if you were spending 10% more than the total value of everything you produce and earn, every year? That is the real threat to US. Get real.
I can't see China overtaking the U.S. by military force as their soldiers are very far behind our military technology and strength - even with the masses of people they have. And then this would start WWIII.MetaKron said:
Do we have a cobalt nuclear warhead? But if they ever were to use it on us, then wouldn't that make the entire continent uninhabitable by anyone with such a large amount of radioactive fallout? This would benefit no one. Winds would then recirculate the radiation all the way around the world back to China, and we'd all lose in the longrun - dieing of cancer and leukemia.
valich said:
It's a lot more in the psychology of the thing. US citizens are far too likely to say "we can't take the chance." As in, "we can't take the chance that our neighbor will enjoy life. One of us might get hurt." Cowardice will only get us killed. China has made it plain that it has no regard for the lives of its own citizens and that its leadership can conduct a war from underground bunkers forever. The cobalt warhead is a weapon that can make us hold still for them chipping away from us. They already are chipping away from us. They had the cobalt warhead before Nixon opened trade. At that time they had little else to offer the world but suicide threats, but those threats would have to have been administered through back channels. If they had threatened us directly I think that even the sheep who pass for American human beings would have forced the U.S. to destroy them whatever the cost, or to just dare them. What's that phrase again? "We can't take the chance" or "we can't take the risk."
If you think that China didn't have the cobalt warhead, the idea was invented around 1945. It requires absolutely nothing in new advanced technology, it is just a substance to place near a nuclear warhead. A history of China's nuclear program
In 1970 a nuclear weapon could have arrived at any port around the U.S. with essentially zero chance of detection before arrival, and if it arrives by ship, it could be arbitrarily large and dirty. I can't say which would have been best, but I think that putting it in at New Orleans, or further up the river if possible would have brought us to our knees in one stroke. The question is, are they crazy enough? They are definitely crazy enough. These people had a "cultural revolution" in which they deliberately murdered most of their intelligent people and instituted murderous practices that they still practice against their own citizens. Saddam was a naughty schoolboy compared to these people. They could easily have threatened a "Dr. Strangelove" scenario and shown, in secret, that they could conceivably detonate as far inland as Kansas. By 1970 it was very easy to get government pamphlets that could be used as instructions on where to detonate for the maximum effect with minimum risk to China. Someone would have known how much to put where so that little if any dust would reach China. Zinc is another possibility and it has a shorter half-life. It is cheap, very easy to obtain, a good gamma emitter, and its alleged disadvantages are also advantages. The ground it contaminates is usable again much sooner. Its lower efficiency can easily be made up in quantity. Depleted uranium can be used next to the zinc if more neutrons are needed.
There is almost no one who is incapable of building a single nuclear weapon into a deadly threat against the entire continent, in other words. It is too simple. Also, anyone could have sneaked one into the U.S. around 1970 to 1980 and planted it somewhere to use for nuclear blackmail. They could have made backups. There were too many ways to sneak things in. There could be a series of devices and they could be telling the US in secret where to find them to defuse them one at a time.
Salted Bombs
The imagination can come up with numerous nuclear checkmate scenarios that are entirely possible, plausible, and consistent with the psychology of the Chinese government. What's hardest to believe is the idea that they haven't already done this. That I flat cannot believe.