Reality check on Mars colonies

Well, it doesn't appeal to me, but clearly there are people who do find the prospect enticing. Could be good to visit - although even that looks un-enticing - but living there? No.

I think too much of the enthusiasm relies on false expectations. Whether Mr Musk is sincere in his Mars ambitions or not I am convinced he is not going to push SpaceX into bankruptcy with unworkable colony attempts; I suspect he would much prefer SpaceX do Mars missions as contractors to taxpayer funded missions, that SpaceX gets paid to do. I'm not convinced that being misleading about the prospects, to sustain popular support for taxpayer space programs that use contractors is entirely ethical. The principle commercial opportunities in space are all local to Earth, servicing Earth needs and Earth customers. Much of that is taxpayer funded contracts. Beyond that is ONLY taxpayer funded contracts.

If it is commercial potential we look for - and I think nothing less will kickstart anything in space that will be self-sustaining - then asteroid nickel-iron is the standout space commodity of value and interest. I'm not convinced the economics of space station living will be much better than Mars, but a mining/refining operation will likely make things like stockpiles of excess iron and nickel (leftover from extracting PGM's) as well as carbonaceous material, water ice, silicate rocks, sulphides, all that could be put to other uses. A space colony wouldn't be self supporting there either but with access to those it may have much reduced start up costs.

Actually, the moons of Mars have more appeal to me than Mars itself - combining ongoing study of Mars with studying objects that are, for all intents and purposes, asteroids. For a viable space economy the significance of planets may be for resources that are important but only occur in useful concentrations where hydro-thermally active planetary histories have occurred, ie Earth and possibly Mars. I suspect Uranium or other fissionable elements would be an example, ie asteroids may not have everything an advanced economy requires either.

 

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Send Elon to Mars as soon as possible

 

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