She knows a lot of the favorable treatment she receives is on account of the fact that (per her) she's an attractive, blond, American lady.
The Japanese are particularly attracted to blond and red-haired Westerners because they are so exotic. I've never been to Japan and I've never watched any Japanese TV, but the people I know who have, say that their billboards, print ads and TV commercials feature blonds and redheads (of both sexes) but not so many brown and black-haired foreigners.
So, where do you see English in fifty years compared to--say--Chinese, Spanish, Arabic or French?
After reviewing the surprises of the last fifty years, I refuse to make any predictions.
My wife insists that Latin America's turn for leadership is coming soon. But even if she's right I don't know how that's going to play out linguistically. They have two languages with comparable populations of speakers. Even though many urban Brazilians can understand Spanish because it comes at them from every direction, I can't see them allowing their "Latin EU" be dominated by Spanish. And it doesn't work the other way: not many Spanish speakers have had much exposure to Portuguese, especially in Mexico, which vies for leadership of the region.
Arabic? I don't know. The world's four largest Muslim nations are Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and Nigeria, and Arabic is strictly a liturgical language for them. Virtually no one there speaks it at home or in business. Arabic is our planet's #6 language, but with around 250 million speakers it's barely ahead of Portuguese. Farsi-speaking Shiite Iran would dearly love to break up the Sunni Arab hegemony over the Middle East, so it's not going to sit by and watch the Arabic language make more gains.
French? I don't even understand why it's on the list. This is the 21st century, not the 19th.
Chinese? They're not exporting it. China will absolutely have to switch to one of its phonetic writing systems before anyone outside the country is going to bother learning its language. And they won't be able to do that until the young generation who were all taught Mandarin in school grow up and replace the older people who still speak their regional languages, since their shared, non-phonetic written language is what binds them together as a culture. This will take most of those fifty years, and perhaps longer since the world's oldest continuous nation is rather patient.
That leaves English. It's the language of computers, air traffic control, rock and roll, probably the majority of TV productions, a disproportionate number of movies, a large segment of the business community, and many other domains I haven't thought of. If things were to continue in the direction they're going today, the number of people who can communicate in English would continue to grow, but at that rate it would take a long time to earn the title of "universal language" or "everybody's second language." One seventh of the population can use it; if we double that it's still not close to half. It's still a damn hard language to learn to speak, even harder to learn to speak well enough to not be embarrassed and often misunderstood, and its writing system is phonetic only compared to Chinese--which will become phonetic within this century.
Meanwhile, in those same fifty years, technological change will take place at an ever-increasing rate, triggering cultural, political and economic changes. The Estonians are really good at software development, perhaps in fifty years everyone will be studying Estonian.
[Chinese], I think you know is hardly even "one" language. The difference between the two most distant dialects in Mandarin is bigger than gulf between Russian and Ukranian . . . .
I'm not sure about that. I think they're comparable. Sichuan dialect is about as different from Beijing as any, and I could understand my Sichuan girlfriend talking to her family.
. . . . Spanish and Portuguese . . . .
No, that's not true. The Spanish-Portuguese phonetic gap is easy to bridge, but they have substantial differences in vocabulary. The dialects of Mandarin don't. Even the different Chinese languages don't have a large difference in vocabulary, since it's the written language that keeps them together. They pronounce their words so differently that they're not understandable, but they're still the same words, about 98%. You might be able to say that about Czech and Slovak, Dutch and Afrikaans, even Danish and Norwegian, but not Spanish and Portuguese.
Per my recent readings, most of the time we use labels like "dialect" and "language" because of politics, not good science.
Not on my board, we don't.
If two people cannot understand each other without spending significant time studying each's other's speech, then they're speaking separate languages. If they can understand each other, with at most a little effort, then they're dialects. If the differences are almost exclusively in pronunciation, then they're accents.
In any such paradigm there are always pairs that come close to the line and are hard to decide. Spanish and Catalan are so close that you might argue that it's a political decision to call them separate languages. So are Catalan and Portuguese; my friends in Valencia said they had a lot less trouble making themselves understood in Portugal when they started speaking Catalan instead of Spanish. And I agree that a Spaniard can probably learn to get along in Portuguese in a few months of living there, without taking classes.
Of course this makes a mockery of the Dutch/Flemish divide; now that is pure politics.
But as for Mandarin, my old girlfriend's family moved from Sichuan to Taiwan after WWII and within a couple of weeks they could understand Beijing Mandarin perfectly, and within a couple of months they could speak it with a bit of an accent.
Standard Mandarin isn't even really that widely used in China outside of official news bureaus, government documents and other national affairs systems.
Yeah okay, but those "national affairs systems" include the schools. Every kid is taught in something approximating Beijing Mandarin, so they all grow up speaking it. Their children won't learn Sichuan Mandarin and their grandchildren won't learn Cantonese or Shanghai.
English--for better or worse--is pretty much "English" (outside of Scotland and Jamaica, and even in those places they can adjust automatically to the bland Anglo-American stuff we all use now).
We generally recognize four
standard dialects: British, American, Australian and Indian. Kiwi is a variant of Aussie, and I'm not sure about South African. Standard British English is R.P. (Received Pronunciation, or what we call Oxford or BBC English), an artificial but now standardized variant, and there are dozens (maybe more) major non-standard dialects within the U.K. I think the Birmingham dialect (Brummy) is more different from British Standard than Scots dialect is. We have a few non-standard dialects within the USA, but TV is doing a great job of leveling them. Southern dialect is now hardly more than an accent.