Mind Over Matter
Registered Senior Member
If they can do it to the Philippines, they can bully other countries too.
If they can do it to the Philippines, they can bully other countries too.
They took over Tibet already many years ago and no one did anything.
If they can do it to the Philippines, they can bully other countries too.
Will US help Philippines? What advantage would helping Philippines bring to the US?Unlike Tibet, the Philippines has a mutual defense treaty with the USA. US military forces are routinely on the islands, the two countries hold joint military exercises, etc. If China attacks the Philippines, it will lead to a war with the USA.
Will US help Philippines?
What advantage would helping Philippines bring to the US?
There have been sporadic shoot-outs at sea in the past few decades—China-Vietnam, China-Philippines, etc. A major clash in 1988 between China and Vietnam killed 64 Vietnamese soldiers. China took over the Philippine-occupied Mischief Reef in a surprise mini-invasion in 1995.I know that they are doing it to Vietnam, too.
Vietnamese hydrographic vessels performing what I presume is petroleum exploration in the South China Sea have been harassed repeatedly by Chinese gunboats and have had their cables cut. And I read somewhere that Vietnam has contracted with an Indian oil company to explore and potentially develop some possible fields off the southern Vietnamese coast, and China has expressed extreme displeasure about that and threatened retaliation (presumably commercial and not military at this point).
Malaysia has claims in the South China sea as well, but I've heard less about Chinese confrontations with them. Perhaps Malaysia is less active in exploiting its claims. Or maybe China is still in the process extending its military presence south.
Without the support of the US and other allied countries, it is not a good idea for the Philippines to engage in a military confrontation with China because the country has no military capability to assert its sovereignty.The Philippines are in a situation where confrontations are especially likely, since China claims soverignty over a number of reefs and sand bars located close to the Philippine coast. And the Philippines are fairly weak, militarily, and might appear easy to intimidate.
But the treaty was written at a different time under different conditions.I think so, yes. Again, the two countries have an explicit mutual defense treaty.
More to the point, the surety of US response means that China is unlikely to ever initiate war against the Philippines.
The disputed Scarborough Shoal is believed to be rich in oil and gas reserves. Do you think oil and gas could not be a driving point for US to help Philippines?Same advantages that alliance with the Philippines has been bringing to the US for the past 100+ years, presumably. They're strategically located near east Asia/South China Sea, etc. Preventing any power from dominating either Europe or East Asia is a cornerstone of US foreign policy, and preventing a rising China from dominating the seas in question would potentially be a major part of that.
From: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2931039&postcount=14 - The other China/ Philippines thread which give at least two reasons why US and China will not go to mutual war.... SUMMARY: China will use the ancient principle: “Might makes rights.” same as US has done. China will in a decade or so effectively own ALL of the South China Sea. Countries like the Philippines, etc. may be able to share in the development of it natural resources, if China is willing. I.e. the same way it originally came to exist (Greater might) the Han Dynasty kingdom will be reborn.
But the treaty was written at a different time under different conditions.
The one who asked the US to vacate its bases was the Maoist Communist Party of the Philippines (CPP) NPA. Philippine Senate voted to end US military presence in the Philippines backed up by so called 'nationalist' and 'patriotic' funded by mainland China. Even the AK47 used by the rebels during the 80's were came from China. The communism in the Philippines was revived by Joma Sison. He was trained in China, then reorganized the Communist Party of the Philippines and added elements of Maoism to its philosophy. All in the guise of being nationalist. That's the long planning made by China... to dominate the Asia they need to push the end of US military presence in the Philippines.I'm an old fart and have watched the US-Philippine relationship grow more distant over the years. In the 1960's and 70's, memories of when the Philippines were a US territory were still very much alive on both sides. The US maintained huge military facilities in the Philippines (Clark AFB and Subic Bay) that were very active during the Vietnam War years.
As the years went by, the Philippines reacted against that history to some extent, and among other things they asked the US to vacate its bases. And for its part, the US has grown a lot less emotionally attached to the Philippines than it once was.
Up until the last few years though, I was still certain that the US military would still come to the Philippines' aid if they ever asked for our help. Today I'm growing less sure. Things are different now.
But the treaty was written at a different time under different conditions.
What do you think would be the stand of the present Commander in Chief and US Congress on this issue considering their present national political situation?
The disputed Scarborough Shoal is believed to be rich in oil and gas reserves. Do you think oil and gas could not be a driving point for US to help Philippines?
Yes, China will not attack the Philippines. There is no need to as, like Taiwan, growing and powerful economic pressures will cause the Philippines to eventually seek political union with China, under the "one China, two systems" approach.... I think the USA is politically and militarily committed to defense of the Philippines, not just on paper, and that this is a big reason why China will not cross any military red lines vis-a-vis the Philippines. ...
More details of Taiwan´s dramatically changed political POV wrt Chinese mainland in post 14 from which the above quote comes.... China is a very old society, and quite methodical – content with slow but steady progress towards its goals. It of course wants to enjoy the advantage the US has had for decades of paying for its imports with printed paper, and is making very tiny steps practically every month to make the RMB into the world´s reserve currency.
The CCP leadership will not get sacked because of slow forward progress, only for what in hindsight their internal opponents can call “foolish adventurism.” I.e. they will not deviate from a proven successful path – too risky to their positions. ...
Yes, China will not attack the Philippines. There is no need to as, like Taiwan, growing and powerful economic pressures will cause the Philippines to eventually seek political union with China, under the "one China, two systems" approach.
More details of Taiwan´s dramatically changed political POV wrt Chinese mainland in post 14 from which the above quote comes.
That is your opinion, but not supported by the historical trends:That is, frankly, silly. The same logic would imply that much of the Caribbean should have politically unified with the USA many decades ago. ...
That is your opinion, but not supported by the historical trends:
As the USA is closer and stronger than the European owners, approximately 40 of the 7000 island have already become politically tied to the US, not to their former European rulers. The transfer to US is a slow process and will take several centuries more before more than half of the Caribbean is politically tied to the US.
I.e. is NOT a silly idea at all as it makes more economic sense than the historic ties to Europe.
"Curaçao (Kingdom of the Netherlands)"
Wiki is not fully correct here.
I was on Curaçao when they celebrated their first independence day.
Now the Netherlands is only responsible for their defense and can disapprove treaties they may sign.
United States Virgin Islands (territory of the United States) including (but some of these island are not populated):
• Blinders Rocks
• Booby Rock
• Bovoni Cay
• Buck Island - Saint Croix
• Buck Island - Saint Thomas
• Calf Rock
• Capella Islands
• Carval Rock
• Cas Cay
• Cinnamon Cay
• Cockroach Island
• Coculus Rock
• Cololoba Cay
• Congo Cay
• Cow Rock
• Cricket Rock
• Current Rock
• Dog Island
• Dog Rocks
• Domkirk Rock
• Dry Rock
• Durloe Cays
• Dut Cheap Cay
• Fish Cay
• Flanagan Island[3]
• Flat Cays
• Gorret Rock
• Grass Cay
• Great Saint James Island
• Green Cay - Saint Croix
• Green Cay - Saint Thomas
• Hans Lollik Island
• Hans Lollik Rock
• Hassel Island
• Henley Cay
• Inner Brass Island
• Kalkun Cay
• Leduck Island
• Limestone Rock
• Little Hans Lollik Island
• Little Saint James Island
• Lizard Rocks
• Lovango Cay
• Mingo Cay
• Outer Brass Island
• Packet Rock
• Patricia Cay
• Pelican Cay
• Perkins Cay
• Porpoise Rocks
• Protestant Cay
• Ramgoat Cay
• Rata Cay
• Rotto Cay
• Rupert Rock
• Ruth Island
• Saba Island
• Saint Croix
• Saint John
• Saint Thomas
• Salt Cay
• Saltwater Money Rock
• Sandy Point Rock
• Savana Island
• Shark Island
• Skipper Jacob Rock
• Steven Cay
• The Stragglers
• Sula Cay
• Thatch Cay
• Triangle Island
• Trunk Cay
• Turtleback Rock
• Turtledove Cay
• Two Brothers
• Water Island
• Waterlemon Cay
• Welk Rocks
• West Cay
• Whistling Cay
SUMMARY: Not a silly idea at all, but an economically-driven, long-term certainty.
Again that is only your opinion. I showed that the Caribbean is no longer 100% European owned. That the dollar is now the commonly used there, that quite a few Americans now have homes there and their number is growing every year. - These are historical trends, which you are only answering with personal attacks....says the guy who is pathologically unable to evaluate any such trend in an objective, scientifically meaningful fashion.