Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

The Melbourne, Australia situation.
Just to highlight part of the problem with quarantine :
The vast majority of cases and deaths in the second wave outbreak in Melbourne Australia ( level 4 lock down current including curfew) can be genetically attributed to a single breach of quarantine caused most likely due to lax (poorly trained) security guards at a "hotel"quarantine facility. Terribly underestimating the seriousness and level of risk involved in their jobs.
In other words the impact of a single breach has impacted on

• thousands infected, killing hundreds ( mainly nursing homes) and
  
• placed over 4 million people in level 4 lock down restrictions on movement.
  
• Forced interstate border closures and second wave conditions in other states.
  
• Imposed ongoing massive cost to the economy ( billions of dollars and massive unemployment)
  
• High rates of self harm and domestic violence
  
• and much more...

Simply because of not taking quarantine seriously, by people specifically employed to do so.

Investigations are ongoing...
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...ced-back-to-seven-travellers-inquiry/12568408
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-08...-victoria-hears-from-medical-experts/12564676

 

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un skilled labour minimum wage working visa's ?

if the security company is not paying the employees for the appropriate level of wages to seriousness then it is a simple economic issue

Hotel & Security Company managers & owners making massive profits off the government while paying bottom wages with no training and then expecting the bottom wages to be totally accountable
is flagrant dereliction of duty & abandonment of accountability

Recruitment process, Training, Wage rate for level of seriousness of the job, systems of reporting,
direct managerial over sight and supervisory control.

redundant security overlap for basic operational security over sight

all terribly lacking and deliberately lacking to leverage as much profit as possible while shifting accountability to those on the lowest wage

all for profit at the tax payers risk and expense

pressure test point

are all the security guards given free meals by the hotel while they are on duty ?
all hotel employees are given free on site 5 star meals as part of their terribly low wage packets, demanding emotional needs of guests & customers, and long shift hours.

what eco system and habitat & culture have they the managers and owners created ?

• no meals
• no lunch room to sit down in during their break
• no tips from guests
• not allowed off site during breaks
• blamed for holding guests hostage & being the bad guy
• treated like a 3rd class person with perks & wages & breaks
• all the highest risks of catching covid_19
• lowest paid

...
considering the reality
yall doing exceptionally well(not sarcasm)

if the company is not paying them a premium for the risk, then the risk is not recognized by the company employing them.
whos fault is that !
risk based business making profit from gambling with risk.
the business of assurity & risk ...

The capitalist mind set dictating the terms of the nature of the systems of checks and balances
... "its all about what i want, its not about what you want"

considering the large vocal right wing in Australia i think Australia are doing ok(& the massive borders)
no time to take the pressure off though
no one will survive a 3rd wave(Tsunami laws, its always the second or 3rd wave that gets them)

 

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The NEW State Government scheme to quarantine international arrivals in hotels was thrown together in less then 48 hours as a mater of extreme urgency.

• Mistakes were made.
  
• The quarantine system was not properly supported and modified after it had been urgently thrown together.
  
• Some members of Government are fully aware of the severity of the situation while some are more inclined to down play or underestimate or even claim a hoax.
  
• Human nature 101.
• The security guards also had a diverse understanding of the situation. Some believed they were at risk some did not.
• The situation is unprecedented.
  
• No one seems to understand that there are no half measures when it comes to quarantine.
• It takes many years of training to know how and be able to operate with in a strict quarantine zone.
• It takes significant discipline that has to be learned.
  
• The hotels were either totally secure or they were not.

In this case they were not.
Even after evidence of poor security, no changes were made to improve the situation. Thus evidence of underestimating the risk is present.

The reason I posted about this situation is to highlight just how devastating a breach of containment can be, not to play the blame game.

We are going to be stuck in various forms of lock down for possibly the next 18 months or so at the least and the need to learn how to survive it as best as possible need to be learned.

For example, a large number of people need to undergo training and be certified to manage quarantine facilities as a matter of urgency. Formation of outbreak squads to lock down areas etc...freeing up law enforcement to do other duties...
Setting up volunteer quarantine training and certification courses so that civilians can gain insight into what may be needed in the future... ( a bit like the national guard of the USA or the army reservist of Australia)

 

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i get you

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im running with the ball

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im surprised no "Australia last/one nutjobnation" right wing fascist party anti vaxer brigade has not fashioned some type of xenophobic rhetoric to politicize the whole thing so obliviously yet
i see one has tried

unlike older cultures
hanging dozens of items from dead bodies around your media profile like a necklace of teeth is not a modern way to win hearts and minds and more importantly votes

Australia is in a unique advantageous position to have a fairly cohesive citizenry with universal health care and modern schooled intellects with little to no substantial cultural superstition to terrorize medical science.

unlike many other countrys

Australian Liberals are a unique odd sort
mostly pro equal rights
yet fiercely independent
(im going to stop at this point to not give away any free advice)

my biggest concern for aussie is the increased risk of anti govt anti citizen people who would exploit the situation to increase chaos
compliance was always going to be a gold medal class shit fight for the aussie mind set
whack-a-mole & perfectionism must be equally matched as partners in the gold ribbon
something most people(except for Olympian types) can not comprehend

 

much like the tracing systems
i notice there is a default process of logging people out of systems after a 24 hour period when they have forgotten to sign out

that may do well to have some type of recall feature to follow up
in a high cost to risk factor highly volatile scenario like a machinery factory high risk area of school etc
i think a default signing out should be changed to force a requirement to validate the person is still on site

if covid_19 was ebola
i think they would have this already running in some form.
now once the system has been installed, i can see the gaps that would make the end result work load for medical staff a lot easier by a few simple compliance tweaks
and these tweaks would be for the risk reduction benefit of the location(company school govt building etc)

 

The contact tracing smart phone app downloaded and installed by over 4 million Australians is a classic example of rushed decision making by an unqualified bureaucracy. It is little surprise that it fails miserably except for probably the most important intent. That being to engender immediate confidence in the public granting them a delusion of doing something to help the situation. More or less a PR stunt.

A better way would be to market and provide online quarantine training courses for all citizens that offers rewards after certification. ( free PPE for example) Thus empowering people to help the situation and assume a more responsible understanding and attitude.

It is also blatantly clear that once daily confirmed cases of community transmission exceed a certain point ( about 10 -15 ) contact tracing is virtually useless in getting ahead of the virus's propagation. A lock down then enforces physical distancing is the only method available once community transmission is present.
There is simply too much time in the wild before quarantine strategies can be employed.

for example ( rough approximations):

• 2 days before symptoms ( contagious)
  
• About 6 hours after symptoms appear. Decision to get tested. ( contagious)
• Allow about 2 hours before getting tested. ( contagious)
  
• about 48 hours on average to get test results after testing. ( contagious)
• about 2 hours before effective self isolation ( perhaps longer) ( contagious)

A person has about 5-6 days of contagious traveling and mixing with others before isolating them selves by their own volition.( that is if they bother to get tested at all)
Take in to account reluctance to self isolate and last minute trip to stock up at the local super market and a lack of realizing the severity of the situation and you have a massive forest fire of contagion that spreads so fast that the only solution is a serious community wide lock down.
If the region locked down it too small then the virus will not be able to be contained.
Progressive lock down failure...

• Initially Melbourne only (level 3 then level 4)
  
• then small regional areas (level 3)
  
• then entire state. Regional L3 Melbourne L4

If a level 4 lock down was initiated and complied with ( impossible?) immediately state wide, then and only then the reliance on luck can be minimized.
This of course assumes that state borders are solidly closed. Which they weren't.

All this means that I and quite a few million others have to sit at home, imprisoned watching streaming video, playing games by ourselves isolated from family and friends for not weeks but months due to an underestimation of just how difficult to contain this virus is...

 

back fires easily by asserting a mandate to control people to tell them they must wear PPE
uptake would be likely in risk self identified groups like young familys
a buy-in for the grandparents would be icing

completely agree
though the tracer apps when cross referenced can help scope the wider field only if the data is immediately on hand to be cross referenced

how they propose to secure that private information i don't know
satellite 3rd party contractor companys who provide data collection and editing tend to have a very slow rate of learning to come up to compliance standards for accuracy and protection.
the type of thinking required to run and manage those type of things tends not to be employed by those type of companys or departments
it tends to be treated like a get rich quite scheme for some mate of a mate with high profile media grandstanding saying they are doing their best at coping as if they have suddenly become the victim(i dislike such people and politicalisation) because they are trading more profit for a worse job. the basic economics they preach is working against a quality of service they are employed to provide.
how that is mitigated in a purely profit driven eco system is a bit of a hit n miss luck of the draw game

good science gets in the way of profit

customer education
idiots verses lawyers verses ultra right liberals

or in india where they all rushed to the outlier villages in the millions
there will be thousands dying in india un registered
the air coming out is they have given up and see it as a survival of the fittest
the question now is, is the data coming out of asia deliberately bent to pander to this
there is some news items suggesting the numbers are lower because of their younger population
what they have omitted is the only reason they have a younger population is because of the death rate & life expectancy

that is their own issue to be concerned with up until the borders are opened up.

anthro-psyche 101
all people in-spite of publicized morals, define themselves, as a natural state of survival, as being more important than rules.
they are always the exception that is acceptable and that is the primary road block to staged lock downs unless you have a very high degree of public support & co-operation.

the darker side of human nature
if they can get away with disrespecting something they feel is authoritative or something they do not understand, or feel inferior to, they will.
additionally, when they get away with disrespecting it, that serves as a justification of the ethical and moral value of that person, group or organization.

... while some leaders in some places down play the Virus,
when it is several times more infectious than the common Flu which by its self can cripple entire nations.

it is all "sick peoples problems" until they start to lose money, then it suddenly becomes a moral issue to start making money.

NOTE: i dont think the tracer app should be canned
i get your point quite clearly about ultra liberals wanting to exploit the tracer app as "doing something" that allows them to maintain their own personal profit & life style choices.

those same people do not want to know about "tools in the box" and to them it is all too hard & an infringement on their personal choices.
until they start to die. then the song changes.

 

Hopefully you can get in on the trial
i consider Oxford University to be fairly scientifically and ethically robust(sound morals & ethics & systems of checks and balances).
not to mention 922 years worth of reputation at stake.

im sure their science department is not there just for their good looks and polite conversation

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maybe government super funds could do a deal with them to buy their shares in exchange for long term special rates on vaccines, if it turns out good.
10b share buy for a 10 year special rate(with buy back after 10 years or option to continue) etc, with 3.5% return to the super fund would seem like safe money
etc !
= buy back @ fixed 10%(maybe15%) rate unless it makes a loss and then they buy back at the purchase price. super fund gets its 3.5% quarterly compounded to a single fund that pays out yearly to the fund etc etc etc ...
something like that
they make 25b revenue per year so they can just say no
but market access and secured prices for 10 years as the govt supplier is good business
ETC etc ... etc ...

 

No, you've just been duped into panic by leftist media. There's a considerable scientific consensus that masks and social distancing, if observed, are effective protections, for the grocery store, polling places, or protest.

See above, about how gullible you seem to be.

 

Nonsensical right wing propaganda. Masks and social distancing certainly help, but any large gathering will nullify that. Try science instead of your silly right wing, Trump the Chump inspired propaganda.

 

There is no science saying large gatherings will nullify masks and social distancing. But go ahead, try to back up that illiterate nonsense.

 

How convenient that you managed to overlook the part about people going to parties! It's almost as if you read with a filter to avoid seeing anything that intrudes on your news bubble. Good luck with that!

I'm not the one worshiping a habitual liar and hanging on his every word.

 

While common sense dictates what I said to be factual, your own sheepish like illiterate statements, are simply more of the hanging on every word of Trump the Chump.
80,000 people at a stadium, even if all were wearing masks, is far far more risky and dangerous then the probable 40 or 50 people keeping social distancing in a store for example.
Who or what other redneck ratbag's words are you going to hang on when the present fool is removed from power?

 

As I said, while common sense says that large 80,000 strong crowds for example are dangerous and risky, it appears that sometimes the extreme white wing conservatives selfish political stance, over rules such common sense and medical advice.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ings-social-distancing-cancel-events/12043202
"Generally speaking, we're talking about a static gathering where people are together for a period of perhaps up to two hours," Australia's chief medical officer Brendan Murphy said

"That is generally where you have a high risk of exposure.

"Casual exposure — walking through a train station or an airport — is much, much lower risk, so we're talking about those constant periods of contact."
::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::::

 

cannon fodder suicide soldiers rally of the damned

i wonder how many people would go to such large gatherings who have lost a family member to covid_19

 

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hopefully common sense and science will prevail
it is a war
the human species is at war with a virus
without common allies and logical sensible science Research & Development
the human species will lose the war
but the losses will be 1 country at a time
and the death will be the modern civilization global world as it is understood to be today

 

While the intent of your post is nonsense it is worth considering that there is no science that says that large gatherings will not nullify the benefits of masks and social distancing...

which leads to the point that in the absence of thorough science it is best to err on the side of caution is it not ?

Unless you think deliberately testing theories out on 30,000 + people is an ideal and ethical way to conduct science?

Do you wish to volunteer as a test subject?

 

Why does that self gratuitous repugnant adage again come to mind? You know the one, "fuck you Jack, I'm alright" that is often the making of right wing nut bags.

 

the problem with that is that he isn't alright. Especially when he is intubated after attending a science experiment for 30000+ right wing nut bags in a crowded stadium.
Is it too nasty to hope that Trumps campaign rallies are huge and full of such idiots?

 

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