Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

?? What do you mean, how could he do it? He just does it. He doesn't have to justify it - indeed, he almost never does.

He's already blamed Obama. Biden has his own COVID-19 plan; Trump can blame him for it being wrong.

 

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Reusable bags are a fairly high risk, according to the local advisors here. They are forbidden inside most stores, by policy.

The people dying of this corona virus are mostly being killed by the virus itself, by my sources.
The pneumonia they get, for example, is usually viral pneumonia caused by this corona virus.
The secondary infections apparently don't have time to set up shop, in the severe cases that end in death.

It's better than in many US places. Most of the First World has better testing than anywhere in the US - so does a lot of the Second.

What that means, among other consequences, is that nowhere in the US will have enough information to make evidence backed and soundly reasoned decisions regarding lockdowns, etc, for a few months yet. Neither will the US be able to solidly evaluate different safety precautions such as masks, gloves, closing of different kinds of gathering places, different levels of isolation, travel, etc, until too late. Officials will have to choose pretty much blind, both in imposing restrictions and in lifting them, and that reduces the effectiveness of precautions while greatly increasing their costs and introducing wider variability (read: unpredictability) in their use. (Just the other day somebody put together some circumstantial evidence and concluded that airport screening for fever and symptoms was probably useless and a very large waste of critical resources - but it's hard to quit that kind of thing on that kind of evidence, and afaik nobody is canceling airport screening. Without testing and tracing, the resources will just have to be wasted).

Note that the lack of testing and tracing opens the door to politically motivated decisions - and we see stark, obvious, and seriously influential differences among official responses that appear to reflect ideological affiliation.

On a Partisan note, for example, the difference between the Democratic State governors and the Republican ones is worth remembering. Comparing the performances of Jay Inslee, Gavin Newsome, Tim Walz, even Andrew Cuomo, with those of the governors of Texas, Louisiana, Florida, et al, just takes a couple of minutes - an easy lesson.

Continuing on that track: The difference between the Republicans and everyone else in Congress is of course the same as it's been for thirty, forty years now. The Republican contribution to the bailout bill currently being shoved through Congress for the pandemic harms, for example, is to have shifted the bulk of the trillions of government pandemic response into the pockets of the corporate and privately wealthy, propping up FIRE and multinational corporate interests with few strings attached, while the rest of the country gets scraps now and the burden of the extra debt in the future - just as in W's bailout bill after the Republican Crash of 2008.

The Republican contribution to the pandemic response has been to delay public recognition of the incoming plague (they had good info by January, from volunteer watchdogs who have been trying to fill in for the dismissed and defunded government agencies as a public service) long enough to allow a few Republican politicians to inside trade before the crash, refuse all offers of tests, masks, etc, from WHO and other better prepared foreign entities, and lie about the US public health preparations while their friends protected themselves, until it was too late to do anything in time to protect the public - whereupon the line became "this is not the time to point fingers, to look back, - - " and "nobody could have seen this coming" (my local official in charge of handling fire and ambulance and other emergency services in my county repeated that last, in front of the county government officials at an official meeting. She also said that "the media" was "overreporting" the issue, making her job harder - she proved it by displaying a graph showing more State citizens had died of flu than corona virus this year).

This is actually a good time to point fingers - and subpoenas - in the right directions: beats sitting around twiddling one's thumbs while Trump threatens to withhold appropriated Federal money and legislated Federal services from anyone who doesn't say nice things about him on TV. (It worked on the Ukrainian guy - why not use it on Americans?) The Senate is taking a vacation - they obviously have nothing better to do. The Dems in the House are looking straight at the latest flagrantly corrupt Republican bailout of Wall Street while Republicans lie about them on TV - they might be in the right mood.

It's going to be possible to estimate, fairly accurately, the number of additional Americans killed in this wave of the virus due to Trump's lies and delays, and Republican lies and delays generally - why not hold them accountable for once? At least we might get them off the street for a while, where they are a bigger threat to public health and safety than, say, any but the most common cancers, any but the highest level organized criminals.

 

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I posed this query a few pages back:

http://sciforums.com/threads/corona-virus-2019-ncov.162778/page-27#post-3625803

Being as we are seeing the consequences of Republican idiocy and psychopathy unfold in real-time, and on our own soil, are people more apt to see the connections? Will they be more motivated to actually do something about it, or will it simply be another chapter in the half-century long dissolution into fascism?

 

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500,000 + Milestone reached.

For the record:
As of 27-03-2020 ( Au)
Global confirmed cases : 520.393
Of these,
19,243 are considered as critical (5%)
123,321 are considered recovered (84%)
23,593 are confirmed COVID Fatalities: (16%)
src: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries
Add to the above stats the incredibly large unknown number of those incubating the virus with out being recorded in the stats.

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The main problem I see in the messaging is that the media, governments etc repeatedly fail to mention that the main reason for social isolation is because there are an unknown number of people incubating the virus and may be contagious. (hidden community transmission)
Once people understand that, the need to socially isolate becomes obvious as any one could be contagious (unless it has been proved other wise)
The community would be considerably more compliant with enforced self isolation and social distancing.
Chronically underestimating the severity of this crisis and clinging to an economy that isn't viable are our governments biggest problems.

• There are no easy solutions.
  
• No proper planning is possible.

Expecting this to be over in the short term is not only crazy it will only extend the duration of the eventual total lock down that is inevitable.
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Suggested future strategy:

All persons tested negative to COVID need to be moved into quarantine zones that can only be accessed by those who have tested negative to the virus. These zones can be expanded as the population increases. Relatively normal lifestyles can exist in these zones. No person can be in these zones unless they are tested thoroughly and often. Suburb by suburb, region by region and so on.
There is little point testing a person/family as negative and then allowing them to continue to be in a contaminated environment. This needs to be avoided IMO.

Example:

• Here in central Australia we have a large 1000+ bed Tourist resort with a further 700 beds for staff that is currently empty of tourists.
  
• The nearest town is about 300kms away.
  
• The surrounding desert environment is extremely hostile.
  
• The resort is by design to be relatively self sufficient and can be made even more so with careful adaptation.

A lot of remote management and high value tech industry ( PPE ) can be set up to aid the rest of the nation while in safe conditions for staff.
People tested as negative would need to go through a self isolation period before admission to allow for testing errors and be subjected to constant monitoring.
All imported supplies and materials have to be decontaminated before entry.

Another:

The island state of Tasmania is ideally situated to total lock down and eventual eradication of COVID. Once cleaned it can be established as a safe zone with stringent requirements for those entering.
Once people migrate they can not leave unless they endure another round of severe isolation and testing.

I am sure Preppers ( survivalists) in the USA and around the world are already doing similar but for more selfish reasons. There would be many opportunities in the USA ( and other Nations) to establish these safe zones to maintain needed industrial outputs for the benefit of the Nation and globe.

By setting these quarantine zones up, safe and efficient manufacturing and research etc can be undertaken to aid other states or nations and real progress can be made against this contagion.

Contingency planning for a "Zombie Apocalypse" type global situation is surely already under way.

 

WTH are these people thinking?

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Wish people would stay home and chill. Get your doctor to fax the pharmacy for coolio drugs.

 

So you'd be ready to leave tomorrow for Tasmania?

 

If I was tested as being negative COVID and was offered a place to move to in a safe zone... sure of course I would...Tasmania is absolutely delightful environmentally...
Or alternatively if the region I lived in was being converted to a safe zone and I was tested as COVID positive and offered alternative accommodation outside the safe zone then sure of course I would.
The situation is that serious. IMO. In less than 6 months society will break down and become very precarious. Looting and food crime will dominate. Economic support will no longer be present.
Property ownership will become tenuous.

The idea of being free of this social distancing requirement is very appealing.
People are gregarious by nature. The existing regime of social distancing will not be sustainable. ( I reckon about 2-3 months and social distancing/isolation will be seriously breached ) The social distancing requirement is to reduce transmission and can only be seen as a short term attempt. It can not be considered as a long term attempt because if anything peoples need for physical intimacy, closeness etc will eventually dictate. ( banning sex, hugs, grief counseling with touch is not going to be successful in the longer term.)

What would you do?

BTW there is no evidence to suggest that any nation has managed to fully contain and destroy this virus. None! Even the gem of Singapore is returning increased infection results. (52 in last 24 hours)

 

billvon,
Do you know anything about the possibility that onset of puberty and beyond may make a person more vulnerable to COVID-19 mortality etc...
The issue I am exploring is how the Thymus gland changes through the course of a persons life cycles and how this may effect the persons COVID journey.
I am tentatively seeing a relationship possible between age related morbidity and age related Thymus gland transformation.

 

I think everyone should move into domed stadiums...or was that the topic last month?

 

see ya in 3 months matie.... lol

 

After Trump lifts the shut down this weekend as he has planned to do, it seems inevitable don't you think?
The churches in Easter will do the rest...

 

I know that the world is going to end within a year so I'm not going to sweat anything between now and then. Just you mark my words. None of us will be here at this time next year.

 

well... if the world took your attitude then no doubt about it...and you think that death is final too no doubt... (now there's a can of worms...lol ...an invite to another thread OP perhaps.)

 

Let's not get too dramatic. The world will go on. It will be more chaotic for the next year and a half, some lessons will be learned and that's about it.

No large groups of people are going to move into artificial communities. This is reality and not an Asimov novel.

 

The Australian Government are seriously considering the Hibernation strategy for the entire nation right now.
If they are successful in working it out and implementing it, no artificial communities will be needed. Total economic freeze and social distancing for all citizens except medical, emergency services and essential services will ensure a 30-60 day end to this crisis.
Anything else is going to lead to staggered safe zones and a failed economy spread over 12 or more months waiting for a vaccine IMO
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2020-03...ation-australia-responds-to-pandemic/12095738

 

I believe that was sealed self-sustaining ecological bubbles.

Because nothing prevents the spread of disease like hermetically sealed bubbles full of people.

 

No, that just reduces the speed of propagation. It certainly won't end the crisis, just give hospitals a little more breathing room until the next wave hits.

 

Disagree!
The virus has a limited life span in a person and surfaces etc.
What is it's life span according to you?
Is it immortal?
After effective quarantine for every one the virus will be gone with in 25 days. Allow for another 30 days to be sure and clean up. Test every one. and use any vaccine that becomes available.

 

Of course not.

How many people would die if they were imprisoned in their homes for 60 days, with no outside contact? 10%? 20%?

 

Imprisoned?
They can still go do exercise, shopping etc. with appropriate permits etc... These sorts of details are yet to be formulated.
But as you have implied you accept that the virus has a life span of less than 30 days if it is contained effectively. Surely we can make full use of it's limitations and allow our economies to restart/reboot once we are clear of it...
If we did it now we would be rebooting our economy in around August-September while the USA is still in the throws of a never ending disaster until the USA does more or less the same out of necessity.