Earth Earth Could Hit Critical Climate Threshold in Next Five Years

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by paddoboy, Jul 14, 2020.

  1. paddoboy Valued Senior Member

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    https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smar...-climate-threshold-next-five-years-180975290/

    Report: 20 percent chance that one of the next five years will see annual global temperatures rise to 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit above pre-industrial levels:

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    A fire in the Yakutia region of Siberia in early June seen from the air. A June heat wave saw temperatures in Verkhoyansk, a town in Yakutia, hit 100 degrees Fahrenheit. (Yevgeny Sofroneyev \ TASS via Getty Images)

    In December 2015, the Paris Agreement on climate change set 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit (1.5 degrees Celsius) of warming above pre-industrial levels as a key target for limiting the negative consequences of human-caused climate change. Now, a new report suggests annual global temperatures could breach that threshold for the first time within the next five years, report Nadine Achoui-Lesage and Frank Jordans for the Associated Press.

    There is roughly a 20 percent chance that one of the next five years will see Earth’s yearly average rise to at least 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit higher than pre-industrial levels, according to the report issued by the World Meteorological Organization (WMO). The odds of striking this grim milestone of climate change in the next five years will “increase with time,” the report specifies, adding that there is a 70 percent chance that one or more months in the next five years will crest 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit.

    To be clear, hitting or even exceeding this threshold for a month or a single year is not the same thing as 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit of warming becoming the planet’s new normal, but Maxx Dilley, director of climate services at the WMO, tells the AP that, “it shows how close we’re getting to what the Paris Agreement is trying to prevent.”

    Earth’s average temperature has already risen 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit above the pre-industrial era (1850-1900) and the last five years were collectively the warmest half-decade ever recorded, reports Ron Brackett for Weather.com.

    more at link......................

    extract:
    The graphic below, produced by the Carbon Brief in 2019, illustrates the increasingly precipitous drop in global carbon dioxide emissions required to stave off 2.7 degrees Fahrenheit of planetary warming.
    https://twitter.com/i/status/1211631520760221696
     
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  3. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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  5. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Excelsior.
     
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  7. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    predictions become even more dire

    direr
    and
    direst
     
  8. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Makes sense. So do observed problems, so that matches.
     
  9. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    If you recall from a few years back that was one of the predictions, if human behavior did not change markedly.

    It did not. So things (including the likelihoods and ranges of possibility) got worse, as predicted - and once again on the high side of the ever-prudent and politically reserved range of likelihood specified earlier (If the 20% chance turns up the event will join dozens of other such events, the large majority of such events, as coming in on the high end of prediction. Oddly, that pattern has not been incorporated into the predictions and probabilities, for unspecified reasons - it's something Bayes enables but American politics discourages, we notice, which may be a clue.)

    So the guys with the data and theory on their side have once again found themselves in accordance with incoming observations and events, only less dramatically than nature herself dealt out. It's almost as if they knew what they were talking about, while constraining themselves to avoid the appearance of drama - no?
     

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