EU and Ukraine.

Discussion in 'World Events' started by foghorn, Dec 15, 2023.

  1. foghorn Valued Senior Member

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    If Britain was still in the EU, would it be free to fund Ukraine by ignoring the blocking of EU funding for Ukraine by Hungary?

    "Hungary has blocked €50bn ($55bn; £43bn) in EU aid for Ukraine - just hours after an agreement was reached on starting membership talks".
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67724357

    EU moving at a snail’s place at a time of crises on its own borders. All chums together or should that be all comrades together according to Hungary?
     
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  3. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    Simple answer: Yes, I think any country in the EU can separately fund Ukraine, but would need to do so out of their own budgets.
    At the moment Hungary are vetoing the financial aid package that would come out of the joint-EU budget, which requires all members of the EU to agree.

    Hungary - or at least Orban - have reasonably close ties with Russia, so presumably they will want to show some reluctance, even if ultimately they agree to a deal. They have done similarly with regard other countries joining the EU, shown disagreement but then ultimately not vetoed. No doubt the EU will provide some concessions toward Hungary to achieve their agreement.
    As for moving at a snail's pace, it could be seen like that, but they believe they have sufficient time to resolve before the current aid to Ukraine runs out. If Hungary keep being the lone dissenter within the ranks in matters relating to Russia, there may come a time when the rest of the EU decide to expel them. But they're not there yet, and presumably Hungary still feel there are benefits of being part of the EU compared to what may lie outside.
     
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  5. foghorn Valued Senior Member

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    And how long would the deciding take along with the act of expelling?
     
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  7. C C Consular Corps - "the backbone of diplomacy" Valued Senior Member

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    Yah, no reason yet to rush to the conclusion that it's a hint of covert activity going on or a sign of things to come with respect to Hungary (below).

    With respect to Russia's own counterpart version of a political/economic union (the EAEU)... Hungary obviously isn't publicly listed as one of the future candidates for membership or even a proposed special trade agreement partner. But that doesn't mean they aren't being heavily courted behind the scenes to incrementally drift away from Western ties.

    "Eurasianism has been officially endorsed in Russia's 2023 Foreign Policy Concept approved by Vladimir Putin, which defines Russia as a 'Eurasian and Euro-Pacific' civilizational-state closely aligned with China, the Islamic World and rest of the Global South, seeking to replace Western hegemony by a 'Greater Eurasian Partnership'."​

    Outside of, but working parallel to Russia's revived "Third Rome" ambitions, is epistemological decolonization. The narrower, ongoing project conceived by Western intellectuals themselves to finally throw off the centuries-long global oppression and tyranny of Eurocentrism and the supposed WEIRD orientation. Decolonization in general, of course, has been transpiring for decades (diminishing imperialism being more justifiable than a return to the superstitious and nationalist traditions of local cultures).
    _
     
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  8. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    If you can determine the length of a piece of string, beyond being self-referential, then you might be in a position to have a reasonable stab at answering that.

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    I think if Hungary did something abhorrent to the rest of the EU such that their position in the collective was clearly untenable then they could perhaps act quickly - so in the space of a year or so. Otherwise, a slow boil might take a decade or more, the EU always seemingly willing to wait until the next elections when a more moderate, more pro-EU leader comes to power.
    The alternative would be for Hungary to pull themselves out, as the UK did. Although given the wondrous benefits that the UK has since enjoyed, I see this as a reason that Hungary would be desperate to remain within the EU. Maybe if Russia was an economic powerhouse that could recompense what their economy would lose then they might be more willing at the moment, but there isn't that much of a pro-Russia sentiment in Hungary to make that worth their while.
     
  9. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    My perception of Hungary is that it is too scared in itself to decide one way or another. Having worked there for a while they are clearly aligned with the rest of Europe in terms of wanting open market etc, but have a leadership much preferring the dictatorship style of things, which tend to favour other dictatorships, such as Russia. They see the rest of the EU as a means to support their weak economy, and in return they know they need to provide/act as a buffer to the more Eastern reaches, and the more politically unstable areas. They are in a position to play both sides to their own benefit, but that will only last so long, unless they are accepted by both sides as a de-facto neutral buffer state, one happy to tatke the EU's money while not hindering the EU's agenda, but also pandering to Russia's need for anti-Western sentiment.
    I think the EU is generally hoping that, like Ukraine, Hungary will turn forever Westward in their politics, and that Orban will effectively persuade future voters, inadvertently, as to the perils of Russia-leaning politics, and that the more open/free-border thinking of the West is eminently preferable. But I think that will take time, and will require the wave of cult-of-personality leaders around the world to ebb somewhat, given that they tend to be of the more right-wing and closed-border mentality at the moment.
     
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  10. foghorn Valued Senior Member

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    Sarkus
    This may explain things a little.
    Contains quote within a quote.
    The He below is Balazs Orban, Viktor Orban's political director (the two are not related),

    " He implied that the prime minister would start playing ball only if the EU were to unblock €20bn of funds for Hungary, frozen because of concerns about human rights and corruption in the country.
    " We don't understand why we don't have access to 100% of financial funds," he added. " "
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-67735680

    This seems to agree with your post#2 from same link above.
    " The EU is already preparing to work around a Hungarian veto if necessary, for example by letting all EU countries except Hungary provide bilateral funding to Ukraine in 2024 outside the EU budget."
     
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  11. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    EU & Ukraine, the new powerhouse
    just need to get rid of victor orban
     

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