Global warming is it really happening

Discussion in 'Earth Science' started by some_guy01, Oct 5, 2001.

  1. fireguy_31 mors ante servitium Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    667
    Global Warming- What the issue is.

    Okay, I tried to read most of the posts on the last thread titled,"Global Warming, is it really Happening?" but I lost interest after a while.
    Whats important to remember is what the consequences are if we(as a society)are accelerating the "anthropocentric belief" of a natural global warming and cooling trend. There is not enough evidence to prove one way or the other.
    But, all you have to do is look at our dwindling agricultural land, expanding deserts, shrinking polar caps, extreme weather phenomenons, accellerated species exterpation and ultimate extinction rates, birth defects, increasing diseases, lack of clean drinking water supplies, increased air pollution, shrinking natural resource base, etc etc etc.....And they can all be linked to global warming. Now, what do you think is important? Whether or not it's happening, or whether or not we should take steps to reverse it?
     
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  3. Maxine Registered Member

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    27
    Yep, Environment Changing

    I can say with a LOUD DEFINANT voice that the environment is changing for the worst. The weather is really becoming unusual and the storms are getting more catastrophic. Scientists said that within the next 200 years, our weather will change. Then they said, within the next 100 years, then 70 years, and finally, whats it going to be? They changed their minds within a 2 year period. Ice is melting faster than anyone can gather information and I think we are headed for an environmental catastrophy. Our world leaders have been forewarned by the likes of David Suzuki and other environmental scientists about the dangers of pollution, and how we need to convert to electric motors to save the planet. This was many years ago, and what has been done to date? Nothing!

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    Its a shame that greed comes before the people.
     
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  5. Zeaper Mutant Alien Registered Senior Member

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    Being loud and defiant does not make you right or credible!

    Weather is always changing it is a matter of personal preference if it changes for the good or the bad.
     
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  7. Rick Valued Senior Member

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    3,336
    Just to illustrate to you what i am talking about couple of years back i saw on Discovery some nerdy reporter talking about a Volcanic Erruption in U.S in Yellow Stone Park and said it was due this year,it was in 1999 i think.They said the Yellow stone park got its erruption about 600,000 years back and that was all and after that it was lull.


    This prediction was B.S as we can see by time itself...



    bye!
     
  8. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    791
    The Green Litany

    Maxine:

    I agree with the last phrase in your post. The rest is the eternal Green Litany that does see only bad things going on, while hiding the head in the sand for the real good ones that are making us live better every day.

    The changing mind of the warming scientists (200 years to 70 years for Apocalypse) just show how clumsy their predictions were –and still are. The shoddy science they use is entirely based on “computer modeling”, something that <b>has not been able to predict even next week weather.</b> The shun and ignore all real world observations –on any subject. Species extinctions, ozone hole, overpopulation, deforestation.. –you name it- all these things are based on “modeling” and “projections” that ignore scientific evidence.

    So the planet is warming catastrophically? There are not many records on weather as cold as the one going on in the northern Hemisphere, with winter arriving to Finland and Sweden a FULL MONTH earlier than ever. Perhaps the global warming is to blame for the cold weather.

    Perhaps the warming provoked the huge and never seen before snowstorm in the Andes last week, in the Mt. Aconcagua area, forcing Army helicopters to go rescuing many mountain climbers that were attempting to climb the Aconcagua (highest peak in the Americas) because this is the station (full summer) that allows the climbing. We had such a cool spring and summer down here in Argentina, that when the normal temperatures returned (briefly) to 37-38°C the TV stations were filled with news bulletins shouting <b>“Heat wave!”</b>. They forget the good old days when “normal” used to be in the range of 40-42°C…

    Perhaps October was the coldest month in 50 years in the Northern Hemisphere (as stated by the WMO in November) because the planet is warming. They corrected that cold record with December and now with January. Perhaps millions of gullible people will keep believing the Earth is warming. Geez!

    The planet does not need to be saved from no one. At least there is no spotted comet or asteroid going down on us, for the time being. Earth has existed for eons without man on its surface, and will keep doing it after we are wiped out by the next big asteroid or comet –but even in that case, I guess Hollywood and NASA will have the spaceships needed to mine their surfaces and blow the thing to smithereens with H-bombs (no need to sacrifice the crew, though!).
     
  9. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    408
    Re: The Green Litany

    Still using the "one contrary example disproves the trend" approach, huh?

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    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/observe/surftemp/
    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/gpol/abstracts/2003/RootPrice.html
    http://ens-news.com/ens/feb2003/2003-02-04-06.asp
    http://www.iht.com/articles/81978.html
     
  10. spuriousmonkey Banned Banned

    Messages:
    24,066
    Re: The Green Litany

    i don't think that the winter arrived a month too early in finland. It was just that is was exceptionally cold in the beginning of the winter. May I also remember you that last year there was an extremely moderate winter in finland.

    one swallow doesn't make it spring
     
  11. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    408
  12. Slacker47 Paint it Black Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    667
    During November - Febuary, is this the coldest or warmest months in the Antartic?

    Andre, all of your articles about the Antartic re-growing were published in January. Think about that. If it is the warmest months, then great, I am glad to know this. The problem is that biased sources sometimes push information.
     
  13. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    791
    There have been too many swallows already...

    Excerpts from a Finnish newspaper (the link below)

    <font color=blue>"Exceptionally cold weather is trying the Finns. So far this winter has been 4-5 degrees colder than average. The autumn that preceded it was exceptionally short, and the summer unusually warm and dry. In a short time the record books have been largely rewritten."

    "The beginning of January continues the same trend. In Helsinki the mean temperature of the month's first eight days was -7.1°C in Jyväskylä, -11.5°C in Oulu -12.3°C, and in Sodankylä it was -16.5°C. The long-term average temperatures at all these locations for this time of year are some four degrees higher, namely -2.9°C, -7.2°C, -8.2°C, and -13.1°C.


    "Statistics reveal that this year winter arrived earlier than usual and "overnight". The autumn was here today and gone tomorrow. Usually autumn lingers around for eight to nine weeks. This time the season lasted a measly four weeks. The trees hadn't undressed before winter arrived, and we had the tragicomic spectacle of birch trees in full leaf covered in snow."

    http://www.helsinki-hs.net/picpage.asp?IsoID=4LWnI8bgM

    "The mean temperatures for September-November were among the coldest in over a hundred years. In Jyväskylä the period's mean temperature of +0.2°C equalled that of the record cold autumn of 1993. Both in Helsinki (+3.7°C) and in Oulu (+0.1°C) this was the fifth coldest autumn, and in Sodankylä (-3.1°C) the ninth coldest autumn in a century of measurements."</font>

    <b>This seems to be quite a big swallow...</b>
     
  14. Dwayne D.L.Rabon Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    199
    Global warming is caused by a increase in gravity, the earth gets about 3 feet closer to the sun every year, this rate of approach towards the sun increase not only because of the gravity of the sun which attracts the earth at a constant, but the earth gets closer to the sun at a accelreated rate because the sun is moving away from the star group ALPHA CENTAURI a three star system, as are solar syatem gets furthur away from the star group ALPHA it changes our orbit to a less elliptic orbit, currently the earth bounces back and forth about 2 million miles in orbit, as well get farthe away from ALPHA the earths orbit is stays closer to the sun, this causes the earth to warm. this action of our sun to get farther from ALPHA also effects are rotation, and causes are magnetic pole to switch which occurs ever 5,000 years or so, the farther we get the sooner the pole switches, when the poles switch it destroys just about every thing on earth, the next one is due in 10 to 39 years, when the poles are about to switch gravity begins to pick up and cause the earth to warm and the upper atmopshere to to collaspe, and sure enough that happens right about the ozone level, the pole switch is the number one cause of the ozone hole, and if you check you will see that the ozone hole is right where ALPHA sets on 67 degrees? and moves across the sky with the earths tilt to the south pole 80 degress lat? the ozone hole starts where ever the ALPHA is at at that time or where it is not at i should say.

    The warming of earth is caused by a gravity increase.

    The world should pay attention because it is soon in for a ride it will never forget, world civilization is in a struggle for its very existance. i mean it when i say it, it is hard rolling on humankind. without preplanning the human race is likly to go exstinct. and thats no joke. i just don't know how to make it ring in your ears so that the bell wakes up!

    DWAYNE D.L.RABON
     
    Last edited: Feb 8, 2003
  15. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    408
    Not that I don't believe you, but where did you get that the Earth's magnetic poles switch every 5000 years (or so)? Do you have any historical references to what happened during the last shift (5000 years ago would be about the time of the Egyptian pharoahs)?
     
  16. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    408
    It's a big pond to drink from...

    That's okay, there's a big pond out there to find warmer water to drink...

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    From the last paragraph of the GISS 2002 Summation on Global Temperature Trends (which only ran up to November):

    However, the first sentence of the Summation says:

    http://www.giss.nasa.gov/research/observe/surftemp/


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  17. Dwayne D.L.Rabon Registered Senior Member

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    199
    Global warming is caused by a increase in gravity, the earth gets about 3 feet closer to the sun every year, this rate of approach towards the sun increase not only because of the gravity of the sun which attracts the earth at a constant, but the earth gets closer to the sun at a accelreated rate because the sun is moving away from the star group ALPHA CENTAURI a three star system, as are solar syatem gets furthur away from the star group ALPHA it changes our orbit to a less elliptic orbit, currently the earth bounces back and forth about 2 million miles in orbit, as well get farthe away from ALPHA the earths orbit is stays closer to the sun, this causes the earth to warm. this action of our sun to get farther from ALPHA also effects are rotation, and causes are magnetic pole to switch which occurs ever 5,000 years or so, the farther we get the sooner the pole switches, when the poles switch it destroys just about every thing on earth, the next one is due in 10 to 39 years, when the poles are about to switch gravity begins to pick up and cause the earth to warm and the upper atmopshere to to collaspe, and sure enough that happens right about the ozone level, the pole switch is the number one cause of the ozone hole, and if you check you will see that the ozone hole is right where ALPHA sets on 67 degrees? and moves across the sky with the earths tilt to the south pole 80 degress lat? the ozone hole starts where ever the ALPHA is at at that time or where it is not at i should say.

    The warming of earth is caused by a gravity increase.

    The world should pay attention because it is soon in for a ride it will never forget, world civilization is in a struggle for its very existance. i mean it when i say it, it is hard rolling on humankind. without preplanning the human race is likly to go exstinct. and thats no joke. i just don't know how to make it ring in your ears so that the bell wakes up!

    DWAYNE D.L.RABON
     
  18. Dwayne D.L.Rabon Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    199
    Boy you sure got hold of the wrong information. you had better check again,
    the aggreed fequency of the pole switch has been 5,000 years for more that 30 years.

    the poles switch when the magentic pole is inducted by the rotational axis of the earth which causes the poles to collaspe, currently the magentic pole is less than 10 degrees from the earths axis, a recored of the magentic fields motion gives a time frame of about 10 to 39 years, 10 years as the suns magentic poles switch that occures in 2011/2012 might trigger the earths pole reversal.

    take time to learn about it and learn how to survive it.

    DWAYNE D.L.RABON
     
  19. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

    Messages:
    24,690
    Can we get a peer review on that?

    Most of us are not scientists and have trouble wading through scholarly papers. But we are familiar with the scientific method and the principle that extraordinary assertions require extraordinary substantiation. Are any others of you familiar with what Dwayne is talking about? Some of you ARE scientists and understand this stuff. As for myself, I'm understandably very skeptical of a person passing himself off as a scientist who makes three bonehead spelling errors in three lines.
     
  20. BatM Member At Large Registered Senior Member

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    408
    How about helping us by telling us where to find the information to learn about this?

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  21. Persol I am the great and mighty Zo. Registered Senior Member

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    I think you can find it up his ass...


    Right to the left of my foot.
     
  22. Edufer Tired warrior Registered Senior Member

    Messages:
    791
    Re: It's a big pond to drink from...

    Let me analize two lines in the GISS 2002 Summary:

    According to GISS, when weather goes cooler, fluctuations are <b>"natural"</b>, but when they get warmer, then they are <font color=red><b>"man-made". </font>>What a laugh!</b>

    But, contrary to GISS assertion, temperature readings became <b>accurate just after 1979</b>, when wheather satellites were launched (the TIROS series). And those readings contradict GISS claims that 2002 has been "the second warmest year" since the 1800s. "warmers" dismiss accurate satellite readings and rely on flawed readings from earth stations suffering from the <b>"heat island effect"</b>. You know that, BatM, and it seems you are stubbornly looking away from real world observations and measurements.

    For anyone interested in readings from hundresds of stations all over the world -that show no overal warming trend- go to:

    http://www.john-daly.com/stations/stations.htm and check for yourself the data. Official data, for that matter...

    What GISS is not mentioning is the <b>unsually cold summer</b> we are having in the Southern Hemisphere. We had at home (36°S, 64°W) just <b>ten days</b> with "normal" temperatures of about 35 - 38°C, while the other 100 days (spring and 40 days of summer) had the highest temperatures in the <b>20°C to 27°C range.</b> About 7 -10°C lower than normal!

    And speaking of swallows: remember the swallows that arrived at San Jose de Capistrano, Calif., around beggining of April 2002?. They had started their journey from the city of Goya, Corrientes, Argentina, on mid February, a full <b>14 days earlier than ever</b>, due to the extremely cool summer we had last year (from Dec to March, here). That should tell you something is getting cool down here (and up there too, as shown in Finalnd, the US, and Northern Europe.)

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    Last edited: Feb 9, 2003
  23. Dwayne D.L.Rabon Registered Senior Member

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    199
    Well it would seem that some have quite a imagination, ect.... regardless it is as usual people fail to understand that a magnetic reversal is a real event, i in general think that it is because so many of you do not want to face the change it is just to big of a change for you to take in all at once and relate that to a near future event that will involve you or your children. belivie me it is understandable! you will have to grow into it. as i exsplain it.
    let me say this don't get strirred brained and panic, keep a cool head and think about waht you can do to prepare for such a event.

    Frist of lets start with a obvious demonstration of a magentic pole reversal.
    The Sun at the center of the solar system, the one that you see in the sky every day has a magnetic pole reversal every 11 years.
    the effects of that magnetic reversal are seen on the sun, and as well it effects earths magnetic feild. a study of this event on the sun is the study of magnetic reversal that occur in planetary bodies. by this example of the magentic filed reversal we can see that magnetic reversal is a real event.
    So then waht happens in the sun to causes its magnetic field reversal. well what can be said directly from observation is that the magnetic pole of the sun approaches the axis of the sun from a distance about 7 degrees once it gains on the axis it collaspes, or for those that question it just reverses, switches poles. under any event this takes about 11 years and has a consistance timing of every 11 years, this means that a magnetic reversal is a constant, and being a constant it is driven by a constant force.
    Now looking at the earth we see that it has a magnetic field, so does it reverse, a investigation reveals that yes it does reverse. this investigation of the earths magnetic poles began with the use of the compass in sea fareing, navigators relized that the magnetic pole seem to be moving, this lead to all kind of theroys about the magnetic pole. about 100 years ago the source of the magnetic force was soughtout, and it was marked. since that day it has been continously monitored. this monitoring has established that the magnetic pole is moving, and it moves in the opposite direction of the earths rotation.

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    The above is at the curtosey of the USA goverment

    it demonstrates the motion of the poles over 100 years, this motion of the pole is north north east, in this action its motion is towards the rotational axis of the earth.
    in understanding this motion it is known that from its speed of motion that the magentic poles do not travel from north to south, where if this was the case the earth would have already exsperinced a reversal and there would be a record of it.
    this defines that the motion of the poles is traveling around the earth and slowly sprialing upward to the north pole, this motion is directly consitant with the rotational induction of the earth, call it centrifical force. the fact that the magentic pole is inducted by the earths axis rotation and the magnetic poles motion is counter to the rotation exsplains simply that when they meet one or the other will collapse, as the rotation is the attracting power, it is clear that magnetic pole will collaspe, meaning it will disappear. this is exactly what happens on the sun.
    understanding that the sun and the earths magnetic field operate the same in actions, establishes that effects will be simular. and from here we can take the speed of the motion of the magnetic field and determine how long it will take for it to reach the earths axis, here we know that the time it would take for the poles to travel from the north to the south pole would take about 2,500 years and we know that does not happen, but when we see that the poles actually travel around the earth we see that it would take a minium of 5,000 years to travel the circumfrence of the earth as it move progressivly north, well then to be more accurate how can we locate the starting point such as on the sun where the magnetic pole of the sun reapears about 7.5 degrees from the suns axis, well looking at the earth the equatorial bulge is to thick for a magnetic field to penetrate in the begining stages or a formation of a magentic field, and as well the rotation of the earth would force the direction or such developing bodie to point toward the north or south, that gives a minium range of about 30 degrees from the equator when we consider the buldge, in general we can safly say that it occurrs somewhere aroung the 45 degree lat, a look at the geoid shows us that we have a very strong remaint field in the country of mongolia, suffcient enough to act as starting point of the last new magnetic pole, we can also see that a calculation from such a distance gives a time frame of about 5,000 years to 7,000years given the variable motion that may occurr with the motion of the magnetic pole. this only means that at the start that it moved slower than it does today, and was stronger than to day.
    the magnetic pole currently moves toward the earths axis at about 18km a year, prior to this it was 15km yr and prior to that 12km yr, here we see the effect of the proximity of the magnetic pole to the axis where the closer the magnetic pole gets to the axis the motion of the pole increases, in combination with this is the daily fluxuation of the poles where it is seen that the diameter of the poles changes daily, this fluxuation as been increasing as the pole gets cloaser to the axis, this fluxuation or defraction is a measure of the dispalcement of the concentration of the magnetic field strength by the sun.
    well know we know that the time frame is about 5,000yrs to 7,000 years, knowing this we can deduct a forumula from the magnetic reversal cycle of the sun, as wee know that such events are not irregular for the sun and wont be for the earth, to do this we laern the time it takes for the sun to complete a magnetic reverasl and become stable, that takes about 9 mounths to a 1year, if we divide that time of 9 mounths by the the period of cycle of magnetic reversal which is a constant we get 14.6 or we couls use 1/11th, 14.6 know becomes the formula 5,000 divided by 14.6/ or 11 equals 346 or 454 years, this means that the time it will take for the entire process of the magentic reversal to return to normal and stable will take 346 years to 454 years.
    to figure how much longer we have before the actual start of that time or the action of reversal we can see that the poles move about 18km a year if you divide that into the distance to the physical north pole you get your awnser, however the physical north pole is not nessacarly the rotation axis of the earth. it has been recorded as being as abotu 86 to 87 degrees north, and currently the magentic pole rest at about 82.5 degrees north. looking at this either way 90 deg. or 86 deg. (some might say it is 5 degto 10 degress past the phsical north pole.) the time is kind of short, with some luck curviture might buy us some time maybe 5 years,possible a few more. in general if you look at it in constant acclleration teoward the axis a 2km a year the time get very short very quickly, given the variables i would giv it about 10 to 39 years.

    There are a lot more facts about the magnetic reversal, some of them very disheartening. what i writ hear is just the basics

    DWAYNE D.L.RABON
     

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