I think it will have a pretty big effect. We're a consumer economy, and much of the consumption happens at the lower income levels (because they make up a larger percentage of the total consumer base.) So Jill the Bartender is out of work. Then they reopen the bars and Jill goes back to work - but work doesn't pick up quickly and she gets laid off. So she can't buy her expensive coffee, so Dave the Barista gets laid off. Which means he's not going to Jill's bar every Friday with his friends like he used to. Multiply by 60 million or so. "But there's nothing fundamentally wrong with the economy!" people say. True - but effects like the one above have a large effect on a consumer economy.