Maine confirms its first case of measles in 20 years

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Kittamaru, Jun 28, 2017.

  1. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

    Thank you anti-vax movement...
    Just an info-dump for those that don't know - Measles is an airborne virus, so no physical contact is needed for transmission. To adequately contain and stymie the spread of measles, we need a roughly 91.7% vaccination rate (mathematically speaking, 1-1/R). The US average is around 91.9%... but the anti-vax movement has resulted in localized areas where the vaccination rate is lower. An anti-vax person that contracts measles has a probability nearing 100% of spreading it to others in their anti-vax social circle, given that it can take anywhere from 7 to 10 days for any symptoms to appear (normally starting with fever), and up to 14 days for the typical rash to appear... meanwhile, they are contagious up to four days before any symptoms appear and for around four days after it begins to subside... with the virus able to live up to two hours outside the human body (so that fine mist from a sneeze... yeah, anyone walking through that could potentially pick up the measles virus).

    In a highly anti-vax community, that one person could easily infect more than a dozen others, and those dozen others could infect another dozen, all before the first person even realizes they are sick...
    Worst part is, if you have only had one inoculation, you still have a roughly 7% chance of contracting it; after the second dose, it is roughly 3% (variances in the virus and "memory" of the immune system, et al).
    Meanwhile, there is a small but vulnerable population that CANNOT be vaccinated, due to weakened immune systems and/or immuno-suppressant therapies (organ transplants, some other auto-immune disorders, etc)... they rely on the other 95% to be vaccinated in order to keep up herd immunity and prevent the spread of these diseases... and yet, overall, we have multiple states failing to hit that 95% mark.

    As an example, Maine (where this is occurring), has a less than 90% MMR vaccination rate among kindergarten aged children...

    Regarding the whole "autism" concern...

    The basis of that concern is a study that has been found to have been intentionally and willfully fraudulent...
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  3. Yazata Valued Senior Member

    I'd be interested to know the ethnicity of these Maine measles patients. The news reports don't provide any information about the patients, but say that the disease was contracted during 'foreign travel'.

    The last major outbreak was in Minnesota, several hundred reported cases, largely immigrant Somalis.

    My guess is that the majority of unvaccinated people in the US aren't members of some largely mythical 'anti-vax community', they are relatively recent immigrants from parts of the world where vaccination isn't common.
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  5. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

    That would still require one of two things:

    A) Said immigrants contracted the disease out of the US and did not present symptoms until after arrival
    B) Said immigrants contracted the disease from carriers within the US (possibly infected, possibly immune and just carrying, but then where did they contract it)

    If A, then US Vaccination is important to prevent the spread of such things further than the initial point of contact
    If B, then US Vaccination is important to prevent the spread of such things to those that cannot be vaccinated (immuno compromised, etc)

    As for "largely mythical anti-vax community"...


    They are hardly mythical... they exist, and they are far, far too common, and even work to keep actual medical experts out of their so-called "information sessions" so they can spread their fear mongering unhindered by facts...
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  7. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

    Actually they're probably just the huge number of people who aren't up on their vaccinations. Do I know if my measles vaccine is up to date? No..and neither do millions of people. They only last 20 years. But hell it's alot more fun to scapegoat the ever lurking anti-vaxxer who nobody ever seems to catch in the act and who everyone "knows" have monthly parties to infect their own kids. lol!
  8. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

    Except, if you had bothered to read, they were caught in the act - holding presentations for the Somali community spewing about the "risks of autism" while downplaying the risks of Measles... it was right there in the quote, even...
  9. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

    Here's what the article said:

    "The public may have been exposed if they visited several locations in Farmington and Kingfield between June 15 and 19.

    Locations include the Narrow Gauge Cinema in Farmington on June 15, in the afternoon and during the evening, and the Kingfield Woodsman in Kingfield in the late morning and early afternoon of June 18.

    Other affected areas include Restaurant la Chocolaterie in Quebec, Canada, Farmington's Franklin Memorial Hospital Laboratory and Grantlee's Tavern and Grill, CBS affiliate WGME in Portland reports."

    Doesn't say anything about antivaxxers.
  10. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

    I guess you didn't bother to read the second article that specifically referenced the Minnesota outbreak? The one I linked and quoted here:

    The one that said
    Which also cites the report from the Washington Post...

    Anti-vaxxers... in the flesh and doing damage.
  11. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

    No evidence any illness was spread by antivaxxers. Just shit you made up.

    Do you have any idea how people aren't up on their vaccinations? Way more than antivaxxers. Why aren't you whining about these people? Are you up on all your vaccinations?
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2017
  12. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

    ... still being as dishonest and disingenuous as ever, eh MR?

    Outspoken and self proclaimed anti-vaccination group goes to an area and holds presentations denouncing vaccinations.
    Vaccination rates drop from 92% to 42% in ten years.
    The area then suffers the largest Measles outbreak since the 1990's...
    • 78 total cases:
      • 69 in Hennepin County
      • 3 in Ramsey County
      • 4 in Crow Wing County
      • 2 in Le Sueur County
    • Vaccination status:
      • 71 confirmed to be unvaccinated
      • 3 had 1 dose of MMR
      • 3 had 2 doses of MMR
      • 1 is unknown/pending
    • Age:
      • 74 in children (ages 0-17 years)
      • 4 cases in adults
    • Race/Ethnicity:
      • 65 are Somali Minnesotan
      • 10 are White/Non-Hispanic
      • 3 are White/Hispanic

    And yet you say there is "no evidence" that this was caused by the efforts of anti-vaxxers...

    Sorry MR, but your "logic" fails. Hard.
  13. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

    There's measles outbreaks in numerous states every year. And they don't have any thing to do with anti-vaxxer seminars. Oh wait, maybe there was an evil antivaxxer in each of those states at the time. lol!

    "From January 1 to June 17, 2017, 108 people from 11 states (California, Florida, Maryland, Michigan, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Utah, and Washington) were reported to have measles.

    In 2016, 70 people from 16 states were reported to have measles. In 2015, 188 people from 24 states and the District of Columbia were reported to have measles. In 2014, the United States experienced a record number of measles cases, with 667 cases from 27 states reported to CDC’s National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD); this is the greatest number of cases since measles elimination was documented in the U.S. in 2000."---
  14. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

    And your point is what pray tell? The 2014 outbreak can be pinned quite well to a rise in unvaccinated folks
    which references this research study:

    Of course, these are highly knowledgeable, well studied, and well trained professionals that conducted this study, so I'm sure you will dismiss it out of hand.

    Simply put - these idiots working to convince people that vaccinations are a bad thing are causing more people to get sick.

    Need more positive correlation?

    Please Register or Log in to view the hidden image!

    Very interesting... as the vaccination rate continues to fall, the number of cases of measles infections rises... almost like it's a cause and effect! What a concept.

    Oops, and as they said, in 2013 the national MMR vaccination rate was down to 91%... the estimated "magic number" for good herd immunity is aroudn the 97% mark. The number of cases each year seems to quite securely show that, as we dropped below that, there were more cases occurring. 2013 saw us drop to 91%, and in 2013 and then 2014, bam, massive outbreak.
  15. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

    Are you up on all your vaccinations?

    Unvaccinated ofcourse including the millions of adults who are not up on their vaccinations. So what's your point? These people aren't antivaxxers.
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2017
  16. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

    So you wish to claim the groups actively trying to scare others away from getting inoculations are not having an effect on vaccination numbers? That their targeted efforts in the community afflicted by this latest outbreak had no bearing whatsoever?
  17. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

    Right. They're a drop in the bucket compared to the ocean of unvaccinated adults out there. People aren't avoiding vaccinations because they think they're harmful. They're just lazy, or uninsured, or indifferent, or simply uninformed. Like you probably. Are you up on all your vaccinations?
  18. Magical Realist Valued Senior Member

  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

    What dismal numbers! Trump will soon make measles great again with anti-vaccination campaigns. No one likes a dismal loser of a disease.
  20. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

    The anti-vaxxers just increase the likelihood of the illness being spread once it is there. After all, vaccination prevents people contracting illnesses. That's kinda the point of it.
  21. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

    This, of course, is a generalisation. More accurately, some people are avoiding vaccinations because they have been told by anti-vaxxers that they are harmful.

    And when you need 95% coverage for vaccination to be effective at conveying herd immunity, it doesn't take too many anti-vax nuts to upset the apple cart.
  22. Yazata Valued Senior Member

    Well sure, as long as you hedge your propositions with words like some, they effectively become unfalsifiable.

    I don't really doubt that at least one of these seemingly mythical "anti-vaxers" is out there who has convinced somebody to not get vaccinated. The question is how prevalent it is.

    I'm reasonably alert and I've never personally encountered any 'anti-vaxers' or ever seen any of their literature. The only reason that I have for thinking they exist at all is the rather hysterical stuff that I read written by those who claim to oppose them. (Like right here in this thread.)

    (We have to stop the reptoid alien takeover of Earth!!)

    Here in California, vaccination rates are typically a function of ethnicity and of economic class. The highest vaccination rates are in the San Francisco bay area and along the central coast, the wealthiest parts of the state. The lowest rates are found among some immigrant groups from areas of the world where vaccinations are less common, and in the poorest parts of the state like parts of Los Angeles or the San Joaquin Valley.

    But even here in the SF bay area, they still aren't at the recommended 95% or whatever it is, more like 80%. But again, I don't think that shortfall is the result of any organized anti-vaccination movement. Like MR says, it's more typically the result of laziness or disinterest.

    To JamesR: This thread really should be moved to conspiracies.
    Last edited: Jun 29, 2017
    Magical Realist likes this.
  23. Bells Staff Member

    The reason the rates are now higher in California is because the laws were changed very recently.

    As for your argument about ethnicity and economic class.. Prior to the change in legislation, they found the complete opposite to what you just claimed in California:

    In California, the kindergarten students most likely to be exempt from mandatory vaccinations based on their parent's personal beliefs are white and wealthy, according to a recent study.

    The percentage of kindergartners with state-issued personal belief exemptions doubled from 2007 to 2013, from 1.54% to 3.06%. That's about 17,000 children, out of more than half a million, opting out.

    Vaccine exemption percentages were higher in mostly white, high-income neighborhoods such as Orange County, Santa Barbara and parts of the Bay Area.

    That article was in 2015..

    The same issue was flagged in California in 2014.

    And 2013:

    California law mandates that all students get vaccinated, but it also makes it easy to get exemptions for personal beliefs. And parents in tony places like Marin County are taking advantage of it in seemingly growing numbers. One public elementary school in Malibu, an affluent beach town just north of Los Angeles, reported that only 58 percent of their students are immunized — well below the recommended 90-plus percent level — according to Shapiro.

    And it’s even worse in some of L.A.’s private schools, where as few as 20 percent of kids are vaccinated in some schools. “Yes, that’s right: Parents are willingly paying up to $25,000 a year to schools at which fewer than 1 in 5 kindergartners has been immunized against the pathogens causing such life-threatening illnesses as measles, polio, meningitis and pertussis (more commonly known as whooping cough),” she wrote.


    But it’s not just California. Public health officials see large clusters of unvaccinated children in latte-drinking enclaves everywhere, like Ashland, Ore., and Boulder, Colo., where close to 30 percent of children are exempted from one vaccine or another. In some schools in Ashland two-thirds of the students have exemptions, according to Mark Largent, a James Madison College professor who wrote a book about the vaccine debate last year.

    And on and on it goes. 2009, for example:

    There’s an important paper in the New England Journal of Medicine this week about vaccine refusal, providing some alarming statistics on this growing phenomenon.

    Let’s begin with the basics: In the U.S., “vaccine refusal” is more or less tantamount to obtaining a state level exemption from childhood vaccinations for non-medical reasons. Such exemptions are on the rise: According to the paper, “Between 1991 and 2004, the mean state-level rate of nonmedical exemptions increased from 0.98 to 1.48%.” That may not sound like much, but vaccine refusal is concentrated in certain areas, or clusters, where the incidence is much higher, and accordingly much more dangerous. States like Colorado, Washington, Oregon, and Michigan in particular are known for having such clusters.

    The NEJM also provides some other revealing data about who doesn’t vaccinate. As the paper puts it:

    As compared with the undervaccinated children, the unvaccinated children were more likely to be male, to be white, to belong to households with higher income, to have a married mother with a college education, and to live with four or more other children. Other studies have shown that children who are unvaccinated are likely to belong to families that intentionally refuse vaccines, whereas children who are undervaccinated are likely to have missed some vaccinations because of factors related to the health care system or sociodemographic characteristics.

    Generally, and this is reflective and indicative of anti-vaxxers around the world in Western countries, the wealthy are usually the least likely to vaccinate their children. In Australia, it is the same thing. I live in an upper-middle class suburb, and there is a strong anti-vaxxer push here from many parents who send their kids to the local private school. It is one of the main reasons my kids attend the public school.

    I would be really interested to see your data or evidence about rates of vaccination and the "function of ethnicity and of economic class"..

    So you never watch TV, read magazines, the papers or read anything about your current president who is an anti-vaxxer?

    Have you been living in a cave for the last 15 or so years?

    Why? Because you do not believe it is a problem or really exists or is influential?

    The only way this would make it to conspiracies was if the OP was about pushing an argument that vaccines caused autism, for example. Discussing the very relevant issue and frankly, given the current political climate in the US where anything anti-science and unscientific ideology abounds where you have a President who is a known anti-vaxxer, where anti-vaxxer's like Jenny Mcarthy are given prominent TV spots to allow her to spout her anti-vaxxer stance repeatedly, for example, this thread actually belongs here.

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