Presidential predictions for 2024?

[Seattle]

Who will win the Presidential election in 2024? Any predictions? This isn't who you would like to run/win. This is who do you think will actually be the winner. Give your reasoning as well.

Since it's so far out, I'll give a scenario and then prediction. If inflation is still an issue as it is today, the winner will be DeSantis. If it's not such an issue, Biden will win if he runs. If he doesn't run (regardless of what Democrat does run) the winner will be DeSantis.

Biden is old, isn't popular but he does have the advantage of the incumbent. DeSantis isn't very charismatic, isn't Trump in positive ways and is close enough to Trump for those in that camp.

Therefore, statistically, there are more ways for DeSantis to win. Biden could even die before then. The economy could not only still be bad but it could be even worse.

Biden's main chance would be if the economy turns around quickly. If Trump win's the nomination then Biden wins the Presidency for sure (IMO).

Biden's fatal flaw (IMO) was shutting down the economy and flooding the economy with easy money. That was as predictionable (for Laker's fans) as trading for Russell Westbrook was. It just couldn't turn out well.

 

[Tiassa]

Biden's fatal flaw (IMO) was shutting down the economy and flooding the economy with easy money.

I'm always dubious about these "[Democrat's] fatal flaw was [(make-believe)]" arguments.

All-weather, all-seasons, now more than ever, and ninety-nine percent fact-free!

Hasn't changed for forty years. Well, except maybe to look more and more like a cheap stereotype to denigrate conservatives.

 

[Seattle]

Maybe just take comments are they are without making about some category? It's my comment (as I added IMO). If you see that same comment elsewhere maybe instead of taking it as "talking points" consider that that's how truth works as well.

How about some prediction and assessment regarding the topic rather than picking apart the wording?

It's not really adding anything to a conversation to make everything about one group or the other. James's approach would be to say "You're a liar" "You must be stupid or a paid shill" and yours is to post about anything other than the actual topic.

If you want discussion on this discussion forum don't attack the poster and maybe try addressing the topic? Do you feel your role as moderator is to stop all discussion before it gets started? I gave a fair assessment of the situation, IMO, and your comment is all you got out of it..."All weather, all season, 99 percent fact free"?

Who do you think is going to be President in 2025 and why do you think that? Forget about trying to be "clever" or using excessive verbiage. Who is going to win and why?

 

[pjdude1219]

Who will win the Presidential election in 2024? Any predictions? This isn't who you would like to run/win. This is who do you think will actually be the winner. Give your reasoning as well.

Since it's so far out, I'll give a scenario and then prediction. If inflation is still an issue as it is today, the winner will be DeSantis. If it's not such an issue, Biden will win if he runs. If he doesn't run (regardless of what Democrat does run) the winner will be DeSantis.

Biden is old, isn't popular but he does have the advantage of the incumbent. DeSantis isn't very charismatic, isn't Trump in positive ways and is close enough to Trump for those in that camp.

Therefore, statistically, there are more ways for DeSantis to win. Biden could even die before then. The economy could not only still be bad but it could be even worse.

Biden's main chance would be if the economy turns around quickly. If Trump win's the nomination then Biden wins the Presidency for sure (IMO).

Biden's fatal flaw (IMO) was shutting down the economy and flooding the economy with easy money. That was as predictionable (for Laker's fans) as trading for Russell Westbrook was. It just couldn't turn out well.

It's rather telling that you think doing something about a pandemic is a flaw.

 

[Seattle]

It's rather telling that you think doing something about a pandemic is a flaw.

You're a judgemental fellow, aren't you?

You do realize that there are degrees as to how one could handle a pandemic. You can completely shut down the economy, you could focus on social distancing, masks or you could just shut down all production and pay out billions even after the economy was starting to recover and after most people still had their jobs.

It may sound like one is doing the humane thing by flooding the economy with cash but as you can see, it did more harm than good. It hurts the retired, the poor, anyone on a fixed income, the most.

Some countries fared worse than the U.S. and some have fared much better.

You're not interested in nuance though, are you?

Do you have an actual Presidential prediction, which was the topic of the thread? Any criticism I give to the Republicans is ignored but any for the Democrats is "telling". Odd but OK...

 

[Sarkus]

You do realize that there are degrees as to how one could handle a pandemic. You can completely shut down the economy, you could focus on social distancing, masks or you could just shut down all production and pay out billions even after the economy was starting to recover and after most people still had their jobs.

It may sound like one is doing the humane thing by flooding the economy with cash but as you can see, it did more harm than good. It hurts the retired, the poor, anyone on a fixed income, the most.

To be fair, were they not decisions made when it was still unclear just how dangerous the pandemic might have been? In hindsight, knowing how "bad" the virus actually was, I think most countries would have acted differently: they would have likely focussed the restrictions, focussed the financial assistance, and kept the majority of the economy far more open, albeit with requirements. But that is the beauty of hindsight. No leader wants to be the one that failed to act to protect their citizens and end up with hundreds of thousands (or more) of preventable deaths on their hands.
I think how it plays out in the election will be a case of whether one judges on hindsight or not, and I think most will, which is rarely good for the one who made the decision at the time.

 

[origin]

DeSantis isn't very charismatic, isn't Trump in positive ways and is close enough to Trump for those in that camp.

I really think you are missing the point about Trump and his followers. This is a cult about personality, DeSantis isn't Trump so the Trump sycophants are not going to go for DeSantis. Don't forget this is Trump, I would guess that if DeSantis somehow were to win the primaries and become the nominee then Trump would encourage his supporters NOT to vote for DeSantis out of spite. Trump doesn't care about the country or the republican party, he cares about Trump.

 

[geordief]

To be fair, were they not decisions made when it was still unclear just how dangerous the pandemic might have been? In hindsight, knowing how "bad" the virus actually was, I think most countries would have acted differently: they would have likely focussed the restrictions, focussed the financial assistance, and kept the majority of the economy far more open, albeit with requirements. But that is the beauty of hindsight. No leader wants to be the one that failed to act to protect their citizens and end up with hundreds of thousands (or more) of preventable deaths on their hands.
I think how it plays out in the election will be a case of whether one judges on hindsight or not, and I think most will, which is rarely good for the one who made the decision at the time.

Damn right,there should be penalty points for overuse of hindsight.

There is also the unloved "esprit de l'escalier" for when you just can't admit you were wrong.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/L'esprit_de_l'escalier

 

[Seattle]

I really think you are missing the point about Trump and his followers. This is a cult about personality, DeSantis isn't Trump so the Trump sycophants are not going to go for DeSantis. Don't forget this is Trump, I would guess that if DeSantis somehow were to win the primaries and become the nominee then Trump would encourage his supporters NOT to vote for DeSantis out of spite. Trump doesn't care about the country or the republican party, he cares about Trump.

It's just my prediction and not a fact. However DeSantis is Trump-like and he is popular so at least some Trump types do appear to be going for him. I do agree that Trump will try to encourage his supporters not to vote for Trump.

What is your prediction?

 

[Sarkus]

If Trump fails to win the primaries, is there a risk he'd try to stand as an Independent? If so, this would surely split the Republican vote sufficiently for a Democratic landslide, whoever they put up. But how likely is Trump to do that?

 

[Seattle]

To be fair, were they not decisions made when it was still unclear just how dangerous the pandemic might have been? In hindsight, knowing how "bad" the virus actually was, I think most countries would have acted differently: they would have likely focussed the restrictions, focussed the financial assistance, and kept the majority of the economy far more open, albeit with requirements. But that is the beauty of hindsight. No leader wants to be the one that failed to act to protect their citizens and end up with hundreds of thousands (or more) of preventable deaths on their hands.
I think how it plays out in the election will be a case of whether one judges on hindsight or not, and I think most will, which is rarely good for the one who made the decision at the time.

I agree on the unknown aspects of the early policies. A leader has to do something and doesn't have the benefit of hindsight.

Biden got off to a good start, IMO, with getting the vaccine out there and widely available. The first personal Covid checks were too little and too late for anyone who was actually out of work and no one else needed them. However this is hindsight you could argue. The other two checks came way later and it was obvious that they weren't needed and were inflationary.

He did it just because he wanted to "keep his promise". The PPP checks were just like turning the money faucet on. Again, maybe it was justified in the first few months but after that it should have ended. Everyone knew this was inflationary but they (administration) insisted that it would be short-lived.

This was also the worst time to push through "infrastructure" massive spending bills and then to cancel student debt ($400 billion) just on a whim.

That's what I'm judging him on and not being a leader and making quick decision initially.

What is your prediction for 2024?

 

[Seattle]

If Trump fails to win the primaries, is there a risk he'd try to stand as an Independent? If so, this would surely split the Republican vote sufficiently for a Democratic landslide, whoever they put up. But how likely is Trump to do that?

It is hard but possible but it's also possible that Lizz Cheney would run as an Independent and therefore there would be an Independent Primary (I think) so that would prevent Trump from running as an Independent. It's probably more complicated than even that. Trump could form a different "independent" party and still run I suppose.

 

[Sarkus]

What is your prediction for 2024?

I'm not close enough to do anything other than have a fairly uneducated guess, which is for the Republicans to squeak in if DeSantis, and lose more significantly if Trump.
I think the Republican primaries will be fairly brutal, with Trump having set the tone even if he isn't involved. If it's DeSantis (or someone else - so basically not Trump) getting the Repbulican nod, I do think Trump will make overtures to standing as an independent. With my cynical hat on, I could also see the Democrats delaying any (criminal?) proceedings that may hinder him in that regard (if there are any??) on the basis that it would split the Republican vote and give the Dems the White House.
But, as said, I'm a long way distant from the fun... we have our own over here to cope with.

It is hard but possible but it's also possible that Lizz Cheney would run as an Independent and therefore there would be an Independent Primary (I think) so that would prevent Trump from running as an Independent. It's probably more complicated than even that. Trump could form a different "independent" party and still run I suppose.

I did mean simply as an independent (lower-case "i"), however that is achieved. I wasn't even aware there was an "Independent Party".

 

[Seattle]

I'm not close enough to do anything other than have a fairly uneducated guess, which is for the Republicans to squeak in if DeSantis, and lose more significantly if Trump.
I think the Republican primaries will be fairly brutal, with Trump having set the tone even if he isn't involved. If it's DeSantis (or someone else - so basically not Trump) getting the Repbulican nod, I do think Trump will make overtures to standing as an independent. With my cynical hat on, I could also see the Democrats delaying any (criminal?) proceedings that may hinder him in that regard (if there are any??) on the basis that it would split the Republican vote and give the Dems the White House.
But, as said, I'm a long way distant from the fun... we have our own over here to cope with.
I did mean simply as an independent (lower-case "i"), however that is achieved. I wasn't even aware there was an "Independent Party".

I'm not sure of the details either. I haven't researched that aspect.

 

[Tiassa]

If you want discussion on this discussion forum don't attack the poster and maybe try addressing the topic?

If you want discussion on this thread, lying is not a helpful argument

That's another thing that doesn't change about these dubious arguments: Attack the argument, and not the person? Well, I'm dubious about this kind of argument. Naturally, the conservative bawls about attacking the person.

I think the dishonesty of such argumentative manners is probably their biggest drawback.

 

[Seattle]

If you want discussion on this thread, lying is not a helpful argument

That's another thing that doesn't change about these dubious arguments: Attack the argument, and not the person? Well, I'm dubious about this kind of argument. Naturally, the conservative bawls about attacking the person.

I think the dishonesty of such argumentative manners is probably their biggest drawback.

I'm not "lying", therefore you must be lying? You disagree with something that I wrote. It's ridiculous to call it lying.

Biden has made some mistakes. Do you consider that he has made no mistakes? You don't have any issue with my criticisms of Republicans, it's only the one's about Biden and then you say I'm lying?

You haven't even addressed the topic of this thread. Why respond if all you are going to do is call someone a liar? Calling an opinion a lie is just silly. Are you silly?

Who do you think will be President in 2025? Are you capable of posting any nuanced answer or is it all black and white. Lier or non lier. Stupid or brilliant. Talking points or facts.

 

[sideshowbob]

1. Trump will not run. Given the results of the mid-terms and his terror of losing, he will find some way to weasel out of it.
2. If he does run, he will likely be nominated by splitting the semi-sane-Republican vote.
3. Biden will win.
4. This will not be the last time one of my predictions fails.

 

[James R]

Who will win the Presidential election in 2024? Any predictions? This isn't who you would like to run/win. This is who do you think will actually be the winner. Give your reasoning as well.

There's a lot that can happen between now and the election.

The Republican party is, for the time being, still firmly in the grip of Trump and Trumpism. Trump has said he will run. Whether he does will probably depend on whether he is indicted for some crimes sometime soon; there are lots of legal problems that might prevent or distract him from running again.

It if comes to a de Santis vs Trump runoff in the Republican primaries, Trump will be the nominee. The majority of the party is loyal to Trump and Trump's base is fanatically loyal to Trump, come what may.

On the other side, viewed from where I am (what I hope is safe distance away from the US and its teetering democracy), I'm not seeing a viable candidate other than Biden who is likely to be able to attract and motivate "undecided" voters to vote Democrat. Name recognition alone counts for a lot among people who blow in the political breezes, so Biden still looks like the best bet for the Democrats, even though big question marks hover around his advanced age and his ongoing health. If Biden is still in good health and if he decides to run, he will be the nominee. He will certainly run if Trump is the Republican nominee; he has already beaten Trump twice, after all.

If the election ends up being a Trump vs Biden contest, Biden will win again. Even though Trump has a rusted-on group of fanatics behind him, there are signs that enough of mainstream America has managed to pull its head out of the sand sufficiently to see that Trump isn't a real alternative, though it is still conceivable that the alternative you will all* decide you want to try is an authoritarian dictatorship like Russia's or China's.

---
* Well, more than 50% of those of you, of those who aren't too lazy to get off the couch and vote, anyway.

 

[Seattle]

I don't think Trump will actually run (given all of his legal issues and I don't think he will want to lose again either). I think DeSantis will beat him in the primary if he does run but it will be close. He can't defeat him by winning over the hardcore Trump voters but he can (I think) beat him in the primary.

That's not a certainty of course. No one is going to beat Biden (no Democrat) but it's possible that he doesn't run.

Voting isn't as important as you seem to think, in reality. It depends on where you live. In Massachusetts (for example) if you are a Democrat and you don't vote, Biden would still win. You have to live in a swing state for it to really matter (on the Presidential level).

Australia will become an authoritarian "state" before the U.S. does. More than it already is, I mean.

Contempt for everyone isn't a good look, by the way.

 

[James R]

Seattle:

I don't think Trump will actually run (given all of his legal issues and I don't think he will want to lose again either).

I don't think he contemplates the possibility of losing. I agree with you that his legal problems might cause problems for him. On the other hand, it seems possible that he believes that running for President might be a good way to delay or avoid legal actions against him.

I think DeSantis will beat him in the primary if he does run but it will be close. He can't defeat him by winning over the hardcore Trump voters but he can (I think) beat him in the primary.

How?

Voting isn't as important as you seem to think, in reality. It depends on where you live. In Massachusetts (for example) if you are a Democrat and you don't vote, Biden would still win. You have to live in a swing state for it to really matter (on the Presidential level).

Swing states become swing states by having similar numbers of voters for each party. It doesn't make much sense to claim that voting doesn't matter. If no Democrats vote in Massachusetts, Republicans will win everything in Massachusetts. If all you're saying is that one state out of 50 can't swing an election on its own, I don't disagree.

Australia will become an authoritarian "state" before the U.S. does.

What makes you think so?

More than it already is, I mean.

You think Australia is an authoritarian state - or heading that way? On what grounds?

Contempt for everyone isn't a good look, by the way.

I agree. Why do you mention this?