Some facts about guns in the US

Discussion in 'Ethics, Morality, & Justice' started by James R, Dec 17, 2012.

  1. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    30,994
    No, I'm not. You do in plain fact and repeatedly, after repeated correction, continue to assert that you have a 1% chance of dying by gun, and that the possession of guns by other people is to blame. I quoted you asserting that.

    Your abuse of statistics, as in that one typical example, is at the level of climate denialists, racial supremicists, intelligent design proponents, and so forth.

    Your actual odds of dying by gun are probably (unless you have a clandestine drug or sex problem) around the level of dying by earthquake, lightning strike, food poisoning, falling, etc. They are far below your odds of dying in a car crash, even after you lowered your crash death odds by raising other people's with your heavy and unstable and visibility curbing SUV.

    Apparently you think your neighbor's population averaged odds of suicide by gun are appropriate matters for State intervention - even Constitutional amendment to allow preemptive ("precrime"?) confiscation of his firearms from his home - while your boosting of that neighbor's odds of being killed by your car is nobody's business but your own.
     
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  3. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

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    Yes. And what does that have to do with suicide? Since roughly half of gun deaths are suicides, the average American's probability that the cause of his own death will be a gun in his own hand is 0.5%. And the average American's probability that the cause of his own death will be a gun in someone else's hand is also 0.5%.

    Obviously those of us who do not have guns are far less likely to die by gun suicide, although the probability is not zero since many gun owners are not careful about storage so their guns could be purloined. One only need to read the obituaries of children who find Daddy's gun in a supposedly secure place and shoot themselves or each other to make that point.

    I'm not sure how you came to your bizarre conclusion, but I can't imagine how you could have misinterpreted either my arguments or my data to imply that I believe the proliferation of guns in other people's homes is a major factor in my risk of suicide. I write for a living and you're the first person who was ever able to twist my words into such a ridiculous statement. The mere assertion that "the possession of guns by other people is to blame" for my risk of suicide is so preposterously illogical in any context that I'm baffled as to how you came up with it.

    Is this the logic of the gun lobby? That sure explains a lot!

    Except that my alleged abuse of statistics is a figment of your own dyslexia.

    No. Lightning kills roughly 50 Americans every year. In many years earthquakes kill no one, and even in a bad year they barely match lightning. Falls in the home, especially by people of my age in the bathtub, take a small three-digit toll and far outnumber all other kinds of falls put together. I haven't seen the stats on food poisoning, but if I'll be surprised if it's more than a small four-digit number.

    Meanwhile guns kill thirty thousand Americans yearly. It would take a statistician with Soviet training to make that figure seem comparable to all of these other deaths combined.

    Surgical errors, hospital-borne infections, incorrect prescriptions, okay, now you're up into the big numbers. And these numbers are indeed splashed in the headlines with some regularity so we all know the risks of being admitted to a hospital. Simply getting doctors to stop wearing neckties, many of which are literally never cleaned despite routinely being close to some astoundingly contagious patients, is a crusade right now.

    The numbers are: road accidents 30,000; guns 30,000. (These are well-rounded numbers and that 1:1 ratio may be off by as much as ten percent. Woo-hoo.) I would very much love to hear the obfuscations you plan on citing to deny this rather straightforward and well-publicized statistic.

    My Mercedes-Benz SUV is more stable than your grasp of mathematics.

    Nowhere have I offered specific suggestions for curbing gun violence. Well except my oft-repeated wish that we could simply ship all the gun lovers off to their own planet where they could happily shoot each other all day every day until there was only one left who therefore could not reproduce.

    I understand the moral, constitutional and practical issues.

    Again, all together now, repeat after me: COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS. Motor vehicles have a useful purpose, and in fact it's unlikely that modern Western industrial civilization could survive without them. It would be nice if we could reduce the risk of fatal road accidents... and by golly we have been doing just that for about 3/4 of a century, since rear-view mirrors and safety glass became standard equipment. The per-mile death rate has been dropping for quite some time and within the past few years even the absolute numbers have been falling.

    So what have guns got to offer on the "benefit" side of the cost-benefit analysis?

    Anybody? I'm waiting.

    As I said, they make little men feel bigger. Whoopee. Try paying attention in your high school classes so you can get a better job or maybe even go to college.

    They also allow people to bypass the supermarkets and kill their own food. I'd be a lot more excited about that if they were shooting wild boar, Canada geese and deer, three of the most intractable vectors in our race to protect our environment. Unfortunately deer and geese have the perfect protection: they live in the suburbs where even the most macho gun nuts don't go shooting.

    And as I've pointed out before, the twisted logic of the National Rifle Assholes has kiboshed the only major safety improvement in guns in the last couple of centuries: electronics that prevent it being fired by anyone but the owner.

    I'd really like to hear someone on the other side of this issue try to explain this utter lunacy! This would completely eliminate the possibility of a child finding a supposedly "locked up" gun and shooting himself or his baby sister. What is it about guns that make the gun lunatics not only willing, but determined to accept this risk???
     
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  5. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    suicide is a right
    not a privilege
    and
    gun deaths by suicide account for only a tad over a third of suicides, while accounting for almost 2/3 of gun deaths.
    for suicide, you are more likely to die of poison, or hanging
    and for violent deaths by automobile, unless you're a farmer, then farm machinery and exhaustion are the main manglers.
     
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  7. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

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    suicide is not a right... it is a terrible "option" that people "choose" only when society has failed them so completely that they honestly cannot see what they have to live for...

    Note: I do NOT consider "death with dignity" to be suicide...
     
  8. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    21,646
    People with terminal diseases, often in agonizing pain, will sometimes choose suicide over continuing to live in pain. They do this even when within loving families and with all the support society can muster. I think they should have that right.
     
  9. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    suicide can be said to be the ultimate act of a man of action

    I had a colleague once: He was a handsome and intelligent young man and seemed to have a great future ahead of him. We had worked on a project for hundreds of hours, then took a break. When we were due to resume and bring the thing to fruition, I was told of his suicide, to which i responded "rotten stingy bastard, hundreds of hours wasted".....................I suspect that I'm a tad more compassionate now. May he rest in peace.
     
  10. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Valued Senior Member

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    Venn Overlap

    I would assert that these two conditions are not necessarily mutually exclusive. That is to say, I disdain suicide by Sisyphan resolution, and certainly would not deny the valid psychoemotional appeal of your characterization, but the ability to die is a fundamental right of the human condition. It is not a right to be celebrated, but, rather, reserved for the most sacred of considerations. And we must bring the sacred to the sunlight; if we do not understand suicide—and, as a society or even in the context of the general human endeavor, we do not understand suicide—we cannot hope to resolve it.
     
  11. Captain Kremmen All aboard, me Hearties! Valued Senior Member

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    I am largely in agreement.
    But what if someone is suffering uncontrollable severe pain?
    Pain that is not relieved by Morphine.
    It isn't much spoken about, but many cancer patients have periods of uncontrollable pain.
    What if that pain was continuous?

    In that case, would increasing the dose of Morphine until the patient dies be acceptable?
    If I had a relative suffering such pain, I would prefer that to be done.
     
  12. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

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    Again, I do not consider Death with Dignity to be Suicide - in a situation like this, where the prognosis is death anyway, allowing the person to choose to die at their time on their own terms, instead of living with a poor quality of life and in pain, is something that SHOULD be granted.

    This is a sad case indeed, but I reckon there was some underlying cause that, had it been resolved, would have prevented him from wanting to take his own life. Depression is NOT a natural state of being - it is something that happens due to outside forces or, occasionally, from an internal chemical imbalance. If the person is able to put out a cry for help, and those around him/her are capable of recognizing it, then they CAN be helped. Trust me... been there, done that, survived several suicide attempts.

    Again, the right to die is, as you said, a fundamental right; the CAUSE of that death is what needs to be addressed. Suicide is not an answer - it is an escape. It is the option one turns to when they believe they have nothing left worth living for, nothing to gain by fighting anymore, and no reason to try to make things better. It is a pivotal decision that must be made with a level head, but is often forced upon a person when they are at their weakest. Death with Dignity is not suicide - death with dignity is allowing a person whose standard of living has fallen to the point of being completely undesirable due to illness, injury, or otherwise incurable, irreparable circumstances.

    Please understand - I'm not trying to condemn those who commit suicide... again, I've been there. I know just how deep that hole goes, how hopeless you can feel, and how pointless continuing on can seem. I also know that it CAN get better, if the right people can discover you are feeling like that. In death with dignity, there IS no way for it to get better, be it because of a shortcoming of science, medicine, or the passage of time.

    If someone were in pain, then the source/cause of that pain should be found and remedied. If this is impossible (fatal injury, disease, etc) then Death with Dignity should be an option.

    For someone such as a cancer patient though... my grandfather beat cancer several times. It sucked at times, as the treatment took his strength, his hair, and his mobility... but afterwards, when he was cancer free again... it was all worth it.

    If he had chosen to simply be put down, instead of beating the cancer, he would have missed out on so much... including the birth of his second grandson, seeing his first grandson (me) get married, and so much more.

    If the cancer is unable to be treated with a poor prognosis, then give the option... but terminating a life should NEVER be the first option.
     
  13. iceaura Valued Senior Member

    Messages:
    30,994
    No. That is silly.
    You posted 1% as your risk of death by gun. You were quite irate that your risk of death by gun is 1%. That rate includes the 2/3 (not 1/2 - look at your own numbers) of gun deaths that are suicides (minimum - provoking one's death by gunfire, throwing reason to the wind and ending up getting shot, and similar quasi-suicides, are not counted). You are including the rate of other people's suicides by gun in your risk of death by gun.

    Why yes. We noticed. That means that the calculation of your chances of death by gun starts at around .3%, and drops significantly from there as you avoid joining an inner city drug gang, renting a slum apartment in Newark, addicting yourself to meth, etc.
    Now you are claiming your risk of suicide by gun is made higher by the chances that somebody else's gun could be purloined by somebody else and end up killing somebody else. I can't parody that.

    You posted that your risk of death by gun is 1%. And you want to get guns out of those other people's homes based on that "unacceptable" level of risk to yourself.
    You made the statement that your chance of death by gun was 1%, and that you wanted the guns removed from other people's houses because of that "unacceptable" fact. No twisting required.

    And that was just the one example of your use of statistics in the issue, the most obviously nuts.

    This kind of abuse of statistics, whether from incompetence or calculated deception, is typical of the extremist positions in many arenas - but is not usually found in the main stream public discussion on "both sides". Normally one side is flinging the bogus stats, and the other side is using reason and evidence. In the gun control issue, this kind of batshit plays a major public role on both sides.

    Most people have little chance of ever gaining protection from owning a gun, and most people are at very little risk of being killed by other people's guns. Although category the first, there, includes many more people than category the second, since almost everyone in the second is in the first but not vice versa.
     
    Last edited: Jul 26, 2014
  14. Kittamaru Ashes to ashes, dust to dust. Adieu, Sciforums. Valued Senior Member

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    Indeed... the chance of me ever having to use my gun to defend myself is slim... but you know what they say in the boy scouts: Better to have and not need, than need and not have.
     
  15. Fraggle Rocker Staff Member

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    24,690
    I have never seen that 2/3 statistic, but since it includes such incidents as "suicide by cop" I'll accept it.

    But I don't understand why you don't believe that the rate of other people's suicide by gun is a reasonable starting point for calculating my own risk. I know of several guns within a short walk from my home, and I'll wager that I'd be able to get my hands on at least one of them. No one can assess his own mental state very accurately, so there's no good reason to dismiss the possibility that one day I might feel like committing suicide. Sure, the need to get out into the fresh air and spend a few minutes walking around looking for a neighbor who is out gardening and has left his unsecured gun in his unlocked house could easily change my mood so I'd go back home without one.

    These circumstances are too poorly defined to support any statistical calculation. But if you want to insist that my risk of suicide by gun is significantly lower than that of a gun owner, I won't argue.

    Wow, that makes me feel so much better. I'm looking for a several orders of magnitude difference before I will feel safe from guns. And again, it's because guns have no legitimate useful purpose, so there is no rational excuse for tolerating their existence.

    The gun cabal doesn't like to collaborate with the government, even though the vast majority of Congressmen are in the pocket of the National Rifle Assholes, making it impossible for sensible reform measures to ever be enacted. Therefore statistics on gun thefts are unreliable. Nonetheless it's been estimated from the available information that about one in five non-suicide gun deaths are done with stolen guns. Obviously these are more likely to be street killings and burglaries gone awry than domestic quarrels or children finding Mommy's gun on top of the the kitchen cabinets.

    You have yet to make your case. Even if my risk is only one-fourth of that, it's still too high to call America a "civilized country" with a straight face. As for my use of statistics being "nuts" you still haven't given me a coherent argument to support that insult.

    Frankly I get the impression that you've never even taken a university course in statistics, much less the economics courses that require you to apply that knowledge--as I have.

    Americans are famous for being innumerate, especially since the advent of hand-held digital devices. They can't make change for a dollar without a POS terminal! What's really frightening is that the innumerate generation is now in charge of our banks and the rest of the economy. Therefore: the subprime mortgage fiasco.

    Save the insults. It's clear that you don't know jack shit about statistics. All you're doing is embarrassing yourself.

    I wasn't invited into Beta Gamma Sigma (honor society for top graduates in business and economics) by not understanding risk analysis and actuarial mathematics. I also wasn't appointed Data Security Officer of the world's largest municipal government without being able to understand and categorize risks.

    You make it sound as though I want to send government agents into every home to search for guns and confiscate them. I don't want the fucking goddamned pigs in my house for any reason, ever! Based upon recent news reports, the incompetent, trigger-happy bastards would probably find an excuse to shoot my dogs.

    I just want people to stop being such lunatics about guns, and realize for themselves that their presence makes life more dangerous for everybody rather than safer.

    Yes, I must sadly agree that Afro-Americans are at a much higher risk than us Euro-Americans.

    Much of the dysfunction in their communities can be traced to the disproportionate enforcement of our drug laws. The rate of drug use in the black and white communities is virtually identical, yet a black man is 8x as likely to be in prison for it. When he gets out with a prison record he can't get a job, so he becomes a dealer--on the streets with a fucking goddamned gun. His wife won't take him back because having a convicted felon in her home will cancel her public assistance payments. His children grow up with no father figure and the cycle repeats.

    But as an unrepentant hippie I'd like to make their lives as nice as mine is. Obviously doing away with our ridiculous drug laws is a good start, but doing away with the guns is also mandatory. (Sure, doing away with racism would help a lot, but then you'll call me a dreamer on top of everything else.

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  16. kx000 Valued Senior Member

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    Love peace and happiness. Do I love my sheep, do I kill for them? Or is there something more for us?
     
  17. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    30,994
    I'm the one pointing out that you should use such numbers as starting points for calculating your own risk.
    You have (it's posted and linked above on this very thread and in many places, in numerical form - of 30k gun deaths, 20k are suicides). And no, it did not include "suicide by cop" - specifically and explicitly did not, as that was brought in to add to it.

    This is not complex reasoning.

    Your psychological need for "safety" from guns above everything else may be where that silly !% came from. But nevertheless I supplied you with at least two orders, above - you don't have a gun in the house, aren't in a gang or living and driving in a gang neighborhood, presumably have no addictions or habits that require risky company, are not a racial target of the police, do not work the overnight shift at a gas station or drive a cab in a city, and so forth. So we're down to random murder by a psychotic stranger or stray bullet in your community - that's lightning strike, plane crash, drowned while swimming, hit by tree territory, just as you requested.

    There is no "legitimate useful purpose" for allowing swimming without a life jacket, biking without a helmet, or drinking a beer, then. And any of those is more likely to kill someone than your neighbor's firearm is likely to kill you.

    Your SUV is more likely to kill your neighbor than his gun is to kill you. Do you have a "legitimate useful purpose" for such extra risk imposition on somebody who never did you any harm?

    Yes, I have. I have observed that trying to include purloined gun deaths of other people in your own suicide risk, for example - seriously, not as a joke - is weirdly bizarre. Nuts.

    All I've got to go on is what you post here, like this in defense of claiming your own risk of death by gun is 1/100:
    and this
    where "the probability" was of your own suicide.

    Like I said, no parody possible. And I'm sorry to see Beta Gamma Sigma's image is suffering here as well, possibly unfairly.

    I don't know whether you want the inevitable means and consequences of your program (" Obviously doing away with our ridiculous drug laws is a good start, but doing away with the guns is also mandatory. ") or not - it would not surprise me if you didn't see them coming. But gun owners are more alert than you are, in that matter.
     
  18. Arne Saknussemm trying to figure it all out Valued Senior Member

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    [video=youtube;GjukzUOM0ac]https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GjukzUOM0ac[/video]​
     
  19. Bells Staff Member

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    24,270
    Bedtime stories will never be the same again..

    One would never have associated open carry with children's books. Until now!

    A CHILDREN’S picture book that aims to show kids the benefit of having parents who openly carry handguns has caused outrage in the US.

    The Michigan-based authors say My Parents Open Carry provides “a wholesome children’s book that reflects the views of the majority of the American people, ie that self-defence is a basic natural right and that firearms provide the most efficient means for that defence”.

    The book was written by Brian Jeffs and Nathan Nephew, the two co-founders of the pro-gun group Michigan Open Carry, who say the story will help parents who carry a gun and sometimes struggle with how to best explain the reasons to their children.

    The story depicts a day in the life of the Strong family “as they spend a typical Saturday running errands and having fun together”.

    The book’s synopsis reads: “What’s not so typical is that Brenna’s parents lawfully open carry handguns for self-defense. The Strongs join a growing number of families that are standing up for their 2nd Amendment rights by open carrying and bringing gun ownership out of the closet and into the mainstream.”

    Jeffs and Nephews said they decided to write the book because they “looked for pro-gun children’s books and couldn’t find any.”


    Ermm okay. One Twitter follower posted an extract..

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    The authors of the book appear to have missed the point about children's books. Little children's books are about happy things, adventures, fairy tales, things that make kids smile. Not about guns, not about crime deterrence.

    The authors also thank their sponsors, the National Take Your Daughter to the Range Day.

    The website is also offering buyers a free copy of the “fun” book Raising Boys Feminists Will Hate! by Doug Giles.

    And yes, that book also actually exists and you can buy it now on Amazon!.. The description from the author is.. well..

    Parent, if you have a young son and you want him to grow up to be a man, then you need to keep him away from pop culture, public school and a lot of Nancy Boy churches. If metrosexual pop culture, feminized public schools and the effeminate branches of evanjellycalism lay their sissy hands on him, you can kiss his masculinity good-bye because they will morph him into a dandy. Yeah, mom and dad, if – if – you dare to raise your boy as a classic boy in this castrated epoch, then you’ve got a task that’s more difficult than getting a drunk to hit the urinal at Chili’s. Read this bold and hard-hitting guide by Doug Giles, the politically incorrect master, on how to raise your son in a world which more and more seems to hate masculinity.

    As one person commented on Amazon's page, it's the book to get if you never want your sons to have consensual sex.

    I suppose we shouldn't be surprised that these books are out there and that they are offering "Raising Boys Feminists Will Hate!" for free if they purchase the open carry children's books. For some reason, the type of people who would buy one, would probably be well into the other.

    And another generation of right wing lunatics is thus raised..

    Makes me glad I'm so far to the other side of that giant pond. Gotta love that Pacific Ocean!

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  20. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Young (wo)men should have the freedom to develop skills with firearms. I started pre-puberty, first with a 22, then shotgun, then more powerful rifles.
    By the time I was mid teens, I simply did not miss(more'n 2-3% of the time). Once the skill is developed, it remains for a lifetime of successful hunting.
    The weapon became an extension of my body, as simple as pointing with a finger.

    My sons and brothers never learned the skill and do not hunt. Kinda sad, but ............c'est la vie.
     
  21. Bells Staff Member

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    24,270
    They'll need them for when they marry men brought up by parents who read Doug Giles' parenting guides for boys.
     
  22. Truck Captain Stumpy The Right Honourable Reverend Truck Captain Valued Senior Member

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    I disagree. a "childrens book" should be about fun in order to present a serious/necessary topic or an important topic that should be learned: like say "farts" or "everyone poops" or "scabs"... http://www.amazon.com/Childrens-Books/b/ref=sv_b_4?ie=UTF8&node=4
    Therefore WHY NOT start telling your children about safety, gun safety, the constitution early on in a fun and friendly manner that children can respond too? or perhaps that is only for topics like "not taking out the garbage and getting killed for it" or "losing a phalange for picking your nose" (Silverstein) ? is THAT any less psychotic when you really think about it? heck... just look at fairy tales and really think about them...
    but its ok to sell a book about (and essentially supporting and teaching) little girls who break into other people's homes and steal their stuff? (Goldilocks and the three bears)
    Some people can see negative in anything... or cannot see positive in anything. There will always be people complaining and turning the little things into big things (while I was in school, the Tom Sawyer and Huckleberry Finn books were banned for racism)

    not necessarily.


    Personal Conjecture reinforced by (and based upon) fear and not really relevant

    :-D
     
  23. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Well, our most traditional children's stories are pretty gruesome. Read the original Snow White, which contains a parable about how women are willing to do almost anything - including mutilate themselves - to get "the prince." (And that's not the most disturbing stuff in the book.) Or Hansel and Gretel, about a cannibal witch who eats children (and is eventually burned to death by children.) The details about her screaming in agony until her death were particularly creepy. Or, heck, any children's book by Dickens. The "all sugar and sweet" kid's stories are a fairly recent development.
     

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