What is the future of Syria?

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Saint, Oct 31, 2016.

  1. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    What is the future of Syria?
    Can it be rebuilt back to previous glory?
    Can the children go to school to learn peacefully?
    Can the people no longer starve?
     
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  3. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    What future?

    The three alternatives at the moment are 1. victory by Assad (and his Russian and Iranian backers), 2, victory by the rebels (whatever that means) and 3. endless anarchy and war.

    1. Assad is a brutal thug. But... rule by thuggish dictators does bring stability in the Middle East, and Syria really needs an end to its incessant warfare. Assad has the positives of being reasonably secular and supportive of religious minorities. (He is one himself.) But the civil war has created so much hatred that the rebels will never accept his victory and there will probably be at least a low level insurgency indefinitely even if he "wins" and drives the resistance underground.

    2. Victory by the rebels raises the question: Which rebels? The largest and most powerful of the rebel groups are all hard-line Islamist. One of them is Jabhat Fatah al Sham, formerly al Quaida's Syrian affiliate. Ahrar al Sham, and the Army of Islam are two of the others and they are all fighting to impose Shariah on Syria and to drive all all non-Sunnis from the country. We hear about "moderate rebels", but it's unclear how many of these actually exist or how "moderate" they really are. Sad to say, I'm doubtful if there are any secular modernist rebels in Syria any longer. (So much for the hugely over-hyped 'Arab Spring'.) And even if there were some 'moderates', what would ensure that they ended up on top? If the rebels do succeed in driving out Assad (to exile in Moscow perhaps) they are divided into many competing factions and would immediately be fighting among themselves for control of the Damascus government and the country. So getting rid of Assad won't end the war and it will probably just usher in something much worse than he is.

    3. Indefinite fighting is probably the most likely alternative at the moment. It's unclear whether Assad has the ability to defeat the rebels or that the rebels have the ability to defeat Assad. Even if 1. or 2. came to pass, fighting would probably continue.

    The fact is that Syria is little more than a failed state.
     
    Last edited: Oct 31, 2016
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  5. Kittamaru Now nearly 40 pounds lighter. Staff Member

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    Evacuate the civvies and glass it? I don't have any "good" ideas to be honest... is there any way to end the fighting that doesn't end in further bloodshed (or mass execution)?
     
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  7. mathman Valued Senior Member

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    Yazata response does not take into two important factions, ISIS and the Kurds. Between them they control a large area of the country. The Kurds are probably the "best" on our (USA) side, but unfortunately Turkey doesn't trust them.

    Eve if Assad and allies defeat the rebels, they still will have ISIS and Kurds to contend with.
     
  8. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    How do the people survive there?
     
  9. timojin Valued Senior Member

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    Ask the politician who are sitting in the comfort and telling people to fight for the principles of democracy
     
  10. timojin Valued Senior Member

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    Who provides weapon to the rebels . Does the provider of weapon gives a dam for the suffering innocent people . The poor people don't give a dam who wins ,
    Why the big powers should stay away let every nation solve they own problem .
     
  11. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    Indeed, there is another alternative and that's partition. The country is already partitioned. Players may change; ISIS may go; but the Kurds and Iraqis will probably take chunks of Syria that are now controlled by ISIS. And the civil war in the West will likely continue without a foreseeable end. Russia and Assad will continue to pour treasure and blood into a civil war they cannot afford and cannot win.
     
  12. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Do their children go to school?
    Do they have agriculture, industry, services to produce GDP ?
    How to live?
     
  13. joepistole Deacon Blues Valued Senior Member

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    It depends on where they are. Some go to school; some are engaged in agriculture and industry; some aren't. Yes, they have a GDP, but know one really knows what it is because the country is so fragmented and in a state of disarray. It doesn't have the infrastructure needed to gather the information needed to report GDP.
     
  14. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    I was thinking of ISIS among the "rebels". They are just the smelliest of the bunch, weirdly apocalyptic, prone to scaring/alienating everyone around them by calculated atrocities, and currently in control of the most territory. Some of the other rebel groups aren't tremendously different in their determination to enforce Islamic law and oppress religious minorities. If ISIS captured Damascus and overthrew Assad, and achieved dominance over the other rebels, that would just be going from bad (Assad) to worse (crazy jihadists). But victory by some of the other rebel groups runs the risk of putting Syria in the same nasty 7th century place.

    The Kurds are something else. They are their own ethnic group with their own language, not Arabs at all. (Indo-Europeans loosely related to the Armenians, I think, except the Kurds are Sunni Muslims while the Armenians retained their ancestral Christianity.) The Kurds don't really want to control all of Syria, since that would mean ruling lots of Arabs who would probably resent it and fight them. The Kurdish goal is to carve their own Kurdish state, Rojava, out of Syria. So the Kurds aren't going to overthrow Assad and they aren't going to suppress the other Arab rebels. Nor are they going to eliminate ISIS as Washington apparently hopes. They aren't going to do anything that will bring the Syrian civil war to a conclusion, one way or the other. As far as they are concerned, the Arabs will have to sort out the rest of Syria for themselves.

    If Assad hopes to enforce peace in Syria, defeating the rebels would have to include defeating ISIS. And if he hopes to enforce peace in all of Syria's territory as he once did, that would mean fighting the Kurds and getting rid of their Rojava statelet. Turkey might help him in that, since although the Turks loathe Assad (mostly because he's an Alawite and is friendly with Iran) they oppose the idea of a Kurdish state on their border even more (because most of southeastern Turkey has a huge Kurdish population that wants to join the other Kurds in independence).

    I think that Turkey will be something to closely watch in upcoming months. The Turks are currently led by democratically elected but increasingly autocratic "moderate" Islamists and the country is rather unstable after the recent coup attempt and the purges that followed. They've swerved from shooting down a Russian jet fighter to flirting with Russia. And despite their having been (along with the Saudis and Qatar) the biggest source of funding and arms for the anti-Assad Syrian rebels, they might swerve again if Assad looks like he is winning to join him in common cause against the Kurds.
     
    Last edited: Nov 1, 2016
  15. timojin Valued Senior Member

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    The one in power bureaucrats they don't giva a damn about the peasants and tradesmen . This is not much different then Plato's republic
     
  16. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    If that were even remotely true, we wouldn't be here discussing what to do about this conflict in the first place. This isn't the first time a mass rebellion has occurred in modern Syria with a Russian hand in putting it down, either.
     
  17. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    What would Trump do with Syria's situation?
     
  18. CptBork Robbing the Shalebridge Cradle Valued Senior Member

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    The whole reason so many people are scared or outright frightened is because no one really knows, and he probably hasn't even decided himself.
     
  19. timojin Valued Senior Member

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    If Russia and the USA would keep their noses out of other nations business we would not have any worry, let them settle their own problem ( Syria , and others )
     
  20. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Syria can not settle itself, IS will defeat the Syria's weak government.
     
  21. timojin Valued Senior Member

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    Remember Yugoslavia . there were 5 ethnic groups they had a war now there are 5 nations so it con be the same with Syria
     

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