Apocalypse Soon?

[Futilitist]

The red line is adjusted for inflation.

Currency devaluation rose spectacularly in the early 1970s. I wonder why? Could it be because US peak oil was in 1970?

---Futilitist

 

[billvon]

Why will they likely be poorer? Peak oil perhaps?

Several reasons. More expensive energy will, in general, reduce the standard of living. Before the population peaks around the end of the 21st century, there will be shortages that mean that not everyone can have the same amount of stuff they do now. (Rare earths, plastics etc.) But the biggest reason is just that there are boom/bust cycles in every town, city, state and country in the world. The richest city today will not be the richest city in 100 years; that title will move on, as it always has.

Farmers will have dirt and sun, but no fertilizer, pesticides, herbicides, or fuel for their tractors. Some people will still farm, of course, but overall yields will be around 30% of what they are now.

That's about right.

Most people will starve.

No, most people will eat different foods. If we can only grow 30% of our current crop, for example, and we dedicated all of that to feeding people we'd have no problems keeping everyone alive. Most of that output currently goes to cattle feed, and corn fed cattle are an unnecessary luxury. You might have to eat cornmeal bread instead of your Big Mac.

Maybe you will be lucky and survive. But most people will not have the options you have. Those people will be dangerous to you and your family.

Don't mean to disillusion you, but right now there are people dangerous to you and your family - and there always have been. Compared to the 1600's, for example, where large tribes of natives wanted you and your family dead - and there was very little organized law - you're going to be in better shape overall.

That is silly. There weren't as many people before we had gas-powered delivery trucks. Now we are reliant on them.

Because oil is cheap. Once oil becomes expensive, they will switch to alternatives. That is already happening.

As an exercise, ask yourself why we don't survive on solar energy only right now.

Because oil (and coal) is cheaper. Nuclear is almost cheaper.

You make it sound so simple.

It is extremely simple, just expensive - which is why we haven't done it in a big way yet.

1. No, it doesn't. It assumes correctly that alternatives will fall short of requirements. They currently do.

As did every single alternative (INCLUDING oil) until the need was sufficient to drive its deployment.

And a crisis could start any day now.

Sure could! And a meteor could hit the planet and crack it in half.

2. No, it doesn't. It assumes that the price will rise rapidly to unaffordable levels.

Let's see what happens then:

-Oil prices rise astronomically due to scarcity.
-Every single expensive and impractical method for recovering oil becomes practical.
-Every single oil company makes billions selling the now-scarce oil at astronomical prices.
-Supply goes up, price comes down.

The population grew while energy was cheap. Population growth is now slowing because energy is getting more expensive. It is a bad sign, not a good one.

I wasn't saying it was a good thing. I am saying that the author's assumptions were incorrect - which is what you were asking about.

Then you will be very pleased by how fast the scales will rebalance.

They've been rebalancing for thousands of years; nothing new here.

Then why have we been wasting our time these last few centuries developing fossil fuels?

Because they are cheap and easy to use. Why spend more money/effort than you need to?

Once again, your imaginary solar civilization does not exist today and we are about to have a crisis. We will not be able to adapt fast enough even if your vision for the future were possible, which it is not.

My rooftop and car disproves your statement. It is demonstrably possible, if we choose to do it. What do you think might induce someone to choose it?

That won't be necessary.

Cool!

 

[Futilitist]

Several reasons. More expensive energy will, in general, reduce the standard of living. Before the population peaks around the end of the 21st century, there will be shortages that mean that not everyone can have the same amount of stuff they do now. (Rare earths, plastics etc.) But the biggest reason is just that there are boom/bust cycles in every town, city, state and country in the world. The richest city today will not be the richest city in 100 years; that title will move on, as it always has.

That's about right.

No, most people will eat different foods. If we can only grow 30% of our current crop, for example, and we dedicated all of that to feeding people we'd have no problems keeping everyone alive. Most of that output currently goes to cattle feed, and corn fed cattle are an unnecessary luxury. You might have to eat cornmeal bread instead of your Big Mac.

Don't mean to disillusion you, but right now there are people dangerous to you and your family - and there always have been. Compared to the 1600's, for example, where large tribes of natives wanted you and your family dead - and there was very little organized law - you're going to be in better shape overall.

Because oil is cheap. Once oil becomes expensive, they will switch to alternatives. That is already happening.

Because oil (and coal) is cheaper. Nuclear is almost cheaper.

It is extremely simple, just expensive - which is why we haven't done it in a big way yet.

As did every single alternative (INCLUDING oil) until the need was sufficient to drive its deployment.

Sure could! And a meteor could hit the planet and crack it in half.

Let's see what happens then:

-Oil prices rise astronomically due to scarcity.
-Every single expensive and impractical method for recovering oil becomes practical.
-Every single oil company makes billions selling the now-scarce oil at astronomical prices.
-Supply goes up, price comes down.

I wasn't saying it was a good thing. I am saying that the author's assumptions were incorrect - which is what you were asking about.

They've been rebalancing for thousands of years; nothing new here.

Because they are cheap and easy to use. Why spend more money/effort than you need to?

My rooftop and car disproves your statement. It is demonstrably possible, if we choose to do it. What do you think might induce someone to choose it?

Cool!

Don't worry, be happy.:bugeye:

I'm glad you aren't in charge.

---Futilitist

 

[Carcano]

I suspect we'll be seeing a lot more of these electric buses in the future. What really kills me is the balsa wood core construction!!!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9JpMTWdPZ6c

 

[Carcano]

Currency devaluation rose spectacularly in the early 1970s. I wonder why? Could it be because US peak oil was in 1970?

No, the US government starting printing vast amounts of money to pay for the Vietnam War...so much so that other nations like France started demanding US gold instead of dollars to settle trade accounts.

Money supply goes up...buying power of the dollar goes down....price of oil in dollars goes into orbit.

 

[billvon]

Don't worry, be happy. I'm glad you aren't in charge.

Don't worry, people like me are. Which is why we're developing new sources of energy and more efficient ways to use the sources we have. It's something of a legacy to leave our children.

If anything I'm glad I don't see myself as helpless and hopeless, just waiting for the end. But whatever floats your boat.

 

[Carcano]

No, most people will eat different foods. If we can only grow 30% of our current crop, for example, and we dedicated all of that to feeding people we'd have no problems keeping everyone alive. Most of that output currently goes to cattle feed, and corn fed cattle are an unnecessary luxury.

This is how the collapse of excess can actually function as an asset to human civilization....fewer donuts in circulation adds up to lighter human bodies which thus need fewer calories to move about from point A to point B!

The advantage of raising animals has always been that animals convert inedible biomass into wonderfully nutritious human foods.

Goats for example, will clear out huge amounts of underbrush and tree buds and convert them into lovely feta cheese...with a little help from the bipeds.

If you set chickens loose in your backyard they will eat every insect in sight and turn them into eggs for breakfast.

This is why chickens have such a quick pecking action...to grab the bugs before they can run or fly away.

 

[Futilitist]

Practicing Futilitisim

Don't worry, people like me are. Which is why we're developing new sources of energy and more efficient ways to use the sources we have. It's something of a legacy to leave our children.

If anything I'm glad I don't see myself as helpless and hopeless, just waiting for the end. But whatever floats your boat.

I don't just sit around hopelessly waiting for the end. I practice a philosophy called Futilitism, hence the name Futilitist. Futilitism teaches that there is practical utility to be found even in utter futility. The fact that the world will come to an end very soon means that every moment is precious.

If anything, I am glad to be aware of my world as it truly is, rather than how I might wish it might be. I am glad that I understand what it really means to be alive in the moment. I think it is better than wasting time with false hopes that will end in sorrow. But whatever floats your boat.

---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

Jesus for President

This is how the collapse of excess can actually function as an asset to human civilization....fewer donuts in circulation adds up to lighter human bodies which thus need fewer calories to move about from point A to point B!

The advantage of raising animals has always been that animals convert inedible biomass into wonderfully nutritious human foods.

Goats for example, will clear out huge amounts of underbrush and tree buds and convert them into lovely feta cheese...with a little help from the bipeds.

If you set chickens loose in your backyard they will eat every insect in sight and turn them into eggs for breakfast.

This is why chickens have such a quick pecking action...to grab the bugs before they can run or fly away.

So basically we will avoid all catastrophe by trimming the fat and waste?

I guess all we have to do is instantly eliminate all human greed in the world and we will be just fine.

Is that the platform your mythical "different breed of politician" will run on?:bugeye:

---Futilitist

 

[billvon]

I don't just sit around hopelessly waiting for the end. I practice a philosophy called Futilitism, hence the name Futilitist. Futilitism teaches that there is practical utility to be found even in utter futility. The fact that the world will come to an end very soon means that every moment is precious.

So anything you do is futile, and all you can do is prepare for the end. Like I said, I am glad I am not that way. I am even more grateful that people like Maxwell, Edison, Einstein, Mendel, Fleming, Tesla, Fleischmann and Pons etc. were not that way.

 

[Futilitist]

Cold Confusion

So anything you do is futile, and all you can do is prepare for the end. Like I said, I am glad I am not that way. I am even more grateful that people like Maxwell, Edison, Einstein, Mendel, Fleming, Tesla, Fleischmann and Pons etc. were not that way.

You seem frightened by the word futile. It is just a word. You really have nothing to fear.

I just got through telling you that I am not preparing for the end, I am living in the moment. You can be forgiven for not understanding the concept, but please stop mischaracterizing me.

Also, Fleischmann and Pons in the same group as Maxwell, Edison, Einstein, Mendel, Fleming, and Tesla? Seriously? Do you think that cold fusion will save us? :bugeye:

---Futilitist

 

[billvon]

You seem frightened by the word futile. It is just a word. You really have nothing to fear.

That's, like, reverse psychology, right? I'm not afraid of the Apocalypse because I don't think there will be one. I'm not afraid of futility because I don't believe that what we are doing is futile.

I just got through telling you that I am not preparing for the end, I am living in the moment.

Fair enough. So you're not preparing for the end, you are just living as if the world is about to end. Just don't end up like these guys:

==============
No Job, No Belongings, No Rapture? How to Rebuild Your Financial LIfe
By Dawn Kawamoto
Posted 6:30AM 05/23/11

Folks who turned to the sky Saturday evening looking for Harold Camping's Rapture prediction to come true were prepared to travel light. A number of them had no jobs and no belongings: They were ready to be swept up into Heaven. Trouble is, Camping's prediction was a bust, and his loyal followers who gave up everything were left with more than spiritual anguish -- they were left with no financial footing.

Maureen Demers, a registered investment adviser in Massachusetts, is well aware of the impact such choices can have. Her brother was one of Camping's die-hard followers. In an email interview on Friday, Demers had this to say about her brother's situation:

My brother has given away everything he owns and spent the past 4 months travelling the world including Indonesia, New Zealand, and Australia "spreading the word." I have tried to talk to him about the "what if's" in this situation - such as "What if you wake up Sunday morning and you have nothing left?" To him, it isn't even possible.

As far as rebuilding financially, fortunately he is still relatively young (43) and has the skills to work again when he decides to. I think that the psychological devastation will be a bigger issue than the financial one. People will likely not wake up thinking, "Oops, I should start maxing out my 401k now since I may be around a while longer."
==============================

Also, Fleischmann and Pons in the same group as Maxwell, Edison, Einstein, Mendel, Fleming, and Tesla? Seriously? Do you think that cold fusion will save us?

Sorry, brain fart, that was supposed to be "Watson and Crick."

 

[elte]

Farmers will have dirt and sun,

---Futilitist

Farming causes the nature of the soil to decline either by direct loss of the soil bulk over time by inevitable erosion, or depletion of minerals like phosphorus. Since farming has been going on in the Midwest, I've heard that the soil depth has already decreased from 6 feet down to 3 feet.

 

[billvon]

Farming causes the nature of the soil to decline either by direct loss of the soil bulk over time by inevitable erosion, or depletion of minerals like phosphorus. Since farming has been going on in the Midwest, I've heard that the soil depth has already decreased from 6 feet down to 3 feet.

(that was me who said that)

Agreed; any farming depletes soil. You can replenish that many ways. You can use intensive fertilization, which is what we've been doing. You can fallow the field and plow that biomass back into it. You can use nitrogen fixers to replenish the nitrogenous nutrients in the soil. You can use compost and other wastes rather than chemical fertilizers.

Intensive fertilization is how to get the most productivity out the a given plot of land, which is why Futilist says that our output would decline by 70% without the ability to use energy intensive fertilizers. (From what I've read it's closer to 50%, but let's go with 70%.) On the plus side we've learned a lot about sustainability over the years, and we can put that knowledge to use if we have to.

 

[Carcano]

So basically we will avoid all catastrophe by trimming the fat and waste?

I guess all we have to do is instantly eliminate all human greed in the world and we will be just fine.

Greed , waste and excess will simply become unaffordable.

Consider how far a wealthy senator of ancient Rome would have to downsize to reach the level of an ordinary Roman citizen living a reasonable decent life.

This is what will happen on a nationwide scale...we will simply have to become sane.

Not through government coercion...but through economic necessity.

 

[river]

Greed , waste and excess will simply become unaffordable.

Consider how far a wealthy senator of ancient Rome would have to downsize to reach the level of an ordinary Roman citizen living a reasonable decent life.

This is what will happen on a nationwide scale...we will simply have to become sane.

Not through government coercion...but through economic necessity.

Agreed

But also by just simply being reasonable and sound balanced people in our thoughts

 

[river]

This apocalypse mentality has got to stop really

Sure there is science , such as magnetic field flip , sun behavior and religious predictions

But I think we should just get a grip and research what is going on in reality , by ourselves investigating any point of view with questions

Only then will we really understand what awaits us now , in the near future , and beyond

Inotherwords what concerns me is that it is possible to talk ourselves into an apocalypse ........

 

[billvon]

This apocalypse mentality has got to stop really

It's amazingly persistent. For thousands of years the lure of the apocalypse prediction has proven too strong for otherwise 100% rational people.

Inotherwords what concerns me is that it is possible to talk ourselves into an apocalypse ........

Yep. And then when it doesn't happen you have to do something like this:

http://www.pastormattrichard.com/2011/05/well-that-was-awkward.html

 

[Futilitist]

Sanity

Greed , waste and excess will simply become unaffordable.

Consider how far a wealthy senator of ancient Rome would have to downsize to reach the level of an ordinary Roman citizen living a reasonable decent life.

This is what will happen on a nationwide scale...we will simply have to become sane.

Not through government coercion...but through economic necessity.

The wealthy senators of ancient Rome did not downsize during the fall of Rome. The ordinary citizens starved.

Marie Antoinette supposedly said "let them eat cake" during the French Revolution.

This is what will happen on a nationwide scale...we will simply have to become sane.

The sanity you suggest has never happened before in recorded history. We have to become sane, but we can't. Since we have no ability to suddenly become sane, we will do the next best thing, and the only other thing possible. Collapse.

---Futilitist

 

[Futilitist]

This apocalypse mentality has got to stop really

Sure there is science , such as magnetic field flip , sun behavior and religious predictions

But I think we should just get a grip and research what is going on in reality , by ourselves investigating any point of view with questions

Only then will we really understand what awaits us now , in the near future , and beyond

Inotherwords what concerns me is that it is possible to talk ourselves into an apocalypse ........

You just said we need to "just get a grip and research what is going on in reality". Did you read any of the links in my original post? They summarize "what is going on in reality". "Magnetic field flip, sun behavior, and religious predictions" have absolutely nothing to do with this topic.

We don't need to "talk ourselves into an apocalypse". We are about to have one. You are so concerned that we don't talk ourselves into an apocalypse, that you are missing the signs of an impending real apocalypse. Please check out some of the real resources that I have provided. Let's investigate the evidence together so that we can "really understand what awaits us...in the near future".

---Futilitist