BRIC+ News & comments

Two major Chinese construction projects started:
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Computer generated view of world's 3rd tallest building. Unlike No. 1, No. 2, also in China, is already profitable.

Breaking ground now an scheduled to be completed in 2014, the multifunctional Chinese skyscraper will have: five-star hotel, Grade-A offices, luxury apartments and upscale retail outlets. The 800-meter Burj Dubai Tower is No.1 and 632-meter Shanghai Center Tower is No.2. The project, with a gross floor area of three million square meters, is located in the Bingjiang business district of Wuhan city. The investment is estimated to exceed 30 billion yuan ($4.5 billion), said the developer, Shanghai-based Greenland Group. From: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/china/2010-12/09/content_11676988.htm, which failed to tell its height!

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"Construction of a high-speed rail connecting Yunnan's capital Kunming city and Myanmar's largest city will begin in two months...
Besides, Thailand also expects to sign a Memorandum of Understanding with Chinese counterparts on the high-speed rail link between the two countries early next year, Warawudh Chuwiruch, a Thai embassy official, said on Dec 8 at the East Asia Business Forum.

"China will provide the construction with technology and financing. The Chinese side will decide which enterprise will participate in the construction", Warawudh told the newspaper. ..." From: http://www.chinadaily.com.cn/bizchina/2010-12/09/content_11679289.htm

Billy T comment: In both cases and with other countries yet to sign for China's grand plan*, China supplies financing and the world's most advance high speed rail technology to get payment in raw materials and energy for many years (probably at least 20, but details not told).

* "Grand plain" is high speed rail links across China and then thru many countries of mid east on to Moscow and Western Europe. See map of its preliminary routes at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2636702&postcount=324
Nice to be able to plan 50 years into the future instead of just thru the next election.
 
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kmguru said:
On Brasil
http://www.businessweek.com/magazin...chan=magazine+channel_news+-+global+economics
Don't Go to Brazil for a Deal on an iPad
The $985 cost of an iPad in Brazil provides a strong example of how high tariffs and protectionist policies hurt the nation's consumers
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Your link is quite accurate and I don't understand why what it reports is true. There surely are more jobs lost because of the reduced trade than are protected in the electronics markets. If Brazil would stop trying to protect its small electronics industry, not only could Brazilian's buy more such products but some of the excess flux of dollars would be return without need for central bank buying them up.

It is also true that many of the things, like alcohol fuel, that Brazil would like to export to the US have American protective barriers blocking that trade at great cost to the driving public. And with oil import dollars financing much of the terrorist the US has much greater military expense than if it got its car fuel from Brazil.

Japan does the same thing to protect is farmers, etc. China does it too, but mainly with low artificially low value for the Yuan as the means to protect its industry, but that should soon change as factories switch to a domestic market.
 
Billy T said:
It is also true that many of the things, like alcohol fuel, that Brazil would like to export to the US have American protective barriers blocking that trade at great cost to the driving public.
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Sadly, this is one of the FEW things Americans legislators have gotten RIGHT in the last decade...with more balance of wealth leaving the US if corn ethanol production were not protected.

Amazingly, Adam Smith is constantly trotted out in support of free trade, the same writer who supported such atrocities as the 'labour theory of value'...an idea even a 12 year old could see through.

As usual BillyT sees only one side of a transaction...in whatever light is favourable to his adopted country.
 
Carcano said:
... As usual BillyT sees only one side of a transaction...in whatever light is favourable to his adopted country.
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In same post you quote from I was critical of Brazil (and of Japan and China too all for doing the same thing.) I.e. I said:
"... If Brazil would stop trying to protect its small electronics industry, not only could Brazilian's buy more such products but some of the excess flux of dollars would be return without need for central bank buying them up. ..."
 
"... China Petroleum & Chemical Corp. on Friday announced it would buy Occidental Petroleum Corp.'s Argentine operations for $2.45 billion, ... The properties produce about 44,000 barrels of oil equivalent a day. Sinopec said in a statement the purchase would "prove significant in cementing economic ties and boosting trade between China and Argentina."

China's continued venture into the Latin American energy industry has led the country to spend more than $15 billion in deals there this year, with more likely to come. "There is not a single CEO of a major oil company in Latin America, not one, who has not been approached by the Chinese," a M&A banker at a western bank told the Financial Times. ..."
From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=newsarchive&sid=aC8LLHiWtGWA

Billy T comment (heard many times before): China is still spending dollars from reserves ASAP for energy, raw materials & food stocks. Not many years before it can dump the remainder to send US and EU into deep, long lasting depression and remove them as significant competitors for the imports China needs.

"China amassed a $201 billion trade surplus with the U.S. for the first nine months of this year, more than the U.S. deficit with the next seven-largest trading partners combined, according to Commerce Department data." Thus, China is finding it hard to lower its holdings* via import of supplies it will need. Although the world's largest producer of gold, China has been buying gold too most observes believe, probably more than India has been. What also has to be considered is that China is buying mostly shorter term treasury paper now with any surplus not spent, and not rolling all its longer term bonds.** Thus, China can put US in hot water whenever it likes by simply not rolling the short term paper as it matures. The net effect of all this is China's is getting what it will need for 20 to 30 years into the future in out right buys or long-term delivery contracts AND greater power over the US.

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*because of the large trade surplus the approximate 100 billion reduction of dollars in reserves China achieved in the nine months ending in mid 2010 has been reversed and China's holding of dollar appears to be increasing again. Actually knowing what China holds is impossible as the US Treasury data (difference between Chinese purchases of new issue and "unrolled" redemption of bonds) is only part of the story. China buys and sells in the secondary market too, and often via agents that hid the true buyer or seller. Most of the bonds are "bearer bonds" with no government record of who owns them. (That makes the secondary market function smoothly without need for recoding all transfers in DC.) Ownership of US saving bonds is recorded by US treasury so no great problem if your dog eats yours. There is no secondary market for them, but if redeemed early, they pay little interest. Few bearer bonds are actually physically held by their owners. They are left on deposit with a bank or broker who can sell them on the secondary when you order that. I don't know, but doubt they physically move from one bank to another when sold. I bet the institutions active in the secondary market all have accounts in each other.

**
chart_china_treasury2.gif
China has started to cut back its US paper holdings, mainly by not rolling maturing longer term bonds.***

*** That increases the US's need to print even more money to pay China off. GWB's depression is coming and Obama can only hope to delay it until his 1st term is over. The economic death of the USA is less than five years away now. In less than five years, no one will lend dollars to cover US deficits so the FED / Treasury printing presses will run 24/7 to pay off maturing bonds as well as the growing budget deficits. All will be dumping / spending their dollars ASAP. - I.e. a run on the dollar, ending in deep long lasting depression in US & EU.
 
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data
China's Wen in India: "We will import more from India."

"... Annual trade between the world’s most populous countries {China & India} has jumped in a decade from less than $3 billion to an expected $60 billion this year, a level that should “substantially increase,” Wen told a business conference in New Delhi yesterday. … China and India vowed to boost their bilateral trade by two-thirds to $100 billion in the next five years, following talks in New Delhi between prime ministers Wen Jiabao and Manmohan Singh. ..."

From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aMNhAM9ywRZA&pos=8

Billy T comment: As I have been stating for years, China is preparing for the day it need not sell to US and EU, but serves its domestic market, meets its obligations under long term contract to build infrastructure (mainly in Africa) for the energy and raw materials they will deliver and as rapidly as possible, grows its trade with other Asian nations.* China understands, even if most Americans do not yet, that the US is broke and will not be able to buy from it much longer (China does not want more of US's green paper in payment for real goods and will stop financing US debt and purchases ASAP.)
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* Eight free trade agreements with other Asian nations already signed and five more being negotiated now!
 
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Billy T said:
China understands, even if most Americans do not yet, that the US is broke and will not be able to buy from it much longer (China does not want more of US's green paper in payment for real goods...
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The US dollar will be worth less...not WORTHLESS.

This a one yen coin from 1870..24+ grams of silver.

http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/e6/Early_silver_one_yen_coin_Japan.jpg

The Japanese yen is worth far less now, but this doesnt stop them from buying stuff.

Also, remember that Bernanke has a secret weapon...he can raise bank reserve requirements anytime he wants.
 
Carcano said:
.... Also, remember that Bernanke has a secret weapon...he can raise bank reserve requirements anytime he wants.
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Raising bank reserves is done to cool an over heating economy as China has done three time in five weeks!* That is a useful way to limit bank's ability to finance / lend for new projects.

Unfortunate the US has a far different problem. The banks aren't lending despite getting literally more than a trillion in cheap stimulus funds, since late 2008, mainly from the FED. Instead they are effective already depositing those funds with the government by buying US Treasury bonds. So Bernake's "secret weapon" is less useful than a wet noodle as a horse whip for US's problem.

Also remember most dollars are outside of the banks, even outside of the US. In fact both the drug cartels and the Russian mafia are each separately reported to hold more green paper dollars than all Americans do. (They don't use credit cards, but pay and hold cash.) Reserve requirements would only apply to a tiny fraction of the dollars.

When the real run on the dollar start these external dollars and sovern funds and central banks (especially China and Japan) will be all looking for something real to buy with their dollars- that is not in the least effected by bank reserve requirements - but that buying binge feeds on its self and makes the hyper-inflation start.
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* Twice in November and about a week ago in December.
 
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Billy T said:
Raising bank reserves is done to cool an over heating economy as China has done three time in five weeks!
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Its a way of removing printed money from circulation...where it dilutes the value of all dollars.

The government gets full value for its newly printed dollars in the FIRST exchange...beyond that, they want the money to hide under a rock as reserves.

Bernanke was interviewed for 60 Minutes and made a cryptic statement about how the Fed has 'many tools' it can use to prevent the QEs from eventually raising the CPI.

Thats probabably what he meant.
 
Billy T said:
Unfortunate the US has a far different problem. The banks aren't lending despite getting literally more than a trillion in cheap stimulus funds...
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Thats not the PROBLEM...thats the SOLUTION.

There is no way out of debt but down.
 
Carcano said:
... Bernanke was interviewed for 60 Minutes and made a cryptic statement about how the Fed has 'many tools' it can use to prevent the QEs from eventually raising the CPI. Thats probabably what he meant.
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No. He has been quite explicit -Telling what his primary tool will be. Even got Congressional approval or it. That is to offer interest on deposits made with the FED. I.e. if the banks should ever start to lend money again at a rate which FED thinks is excessive, (would let inflation get to be a problem as in China where banks have lent too much forcing reserve requirement up 3 times in 5 weeks) the FED would attract that money into its account where it sits, instead of circulate to make inflation. Ben understand that raising reserve requirements, as you suggested, would accomplish nothing. That only works if the banks are lending excessively and does nothing even if they are lending when most of the cash is not even in the bank. It works in China as there very few Yuan are outside of China and only a few percent of the population has even one credit card. I.e. they use cash and get it from the banks.

I have even posted, about half a year ago when FED announced this plan, why I think that is at best a delaying of the inflation and actually in the long run will make the inflations worse: Briefly, owners of the several trillion that has been created will only deposit it with FED, if in the long run they get more than it back. So really that will eventually put more currency into circulation.

Only higher taxes and a budge surplus will permanently remove that expanded volume of printing press money from circulation, if it ever starts to circulate. Higher reserve requirements now would do nothing as the banks are not lending - they are already sending the cash they should be lending to the government (as if reserve requirements were 100%) by buying Treasury paper. Higher reserve requirements now would do nothing for the vast majority of paper money as very little of it is in the banks - most is not even inside the US. -Americans use credit cards for major purchases. The drug cartels and Russian Mafia use cash and hoard it - that, plus others* outside of the US is where most paper dollars are.
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* For example, I brought the not necessary to declare $10,000 dollars (cash) back to Brazil after my last US visit, planing to convert it into Real, but the Real has been too strong so still have it. When I lived in the USA, it was rare that I had more than $100 in cash. I.e. I am typical of the "others" in that have 100 times more cash when outside the US than when in the US. Occasionally, especially a few years ago when Real was not so strong, the newspaper would have a photo of a suit case full of 100 dollar bills. Now the corrupt and crooks are holding more Real than dollars as dollars are losing value and they are not dumb.
 
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Billy T said:
Ben understand that raising reserve requirements, as you suggested, would accomplish nothing. That only works if the banks are lending excessively, and does nothing even if they are lending when most of the cash is not even in the bank.
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You confusion here Billy is in assuming that the CPI is *ONLY* determined by the internal velocity of money...and also in understanding what a reserve requirement is, considering the last part of your sentence.:rolleyes:

Ben wants to continue printing and buying T-bills to keep rates low, but he also realizes that reserve requirements have to go up if this continues on and on for years.

But as for your original point, the Chinese are not even thinking of de-coupling from the US market. They can hardly believe what theyre getting away with and will pump the US consumer dry as long as they can, in order to fund their military ambitions in Asia.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=TbUDfIzqpwU

I realize you only appreciate mercantilism when the country you hate so obsessively (America) is its victim...but the rest of Asia isnt stupid enough to follow Adam Smith into the grave.:bugeye:
 
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saupload_fredgraph_1_thumb1.png

“…The above chart depicts the amount of money US banks are sitting on in excess of what the Fed requires them to hold (all banks must hold a certain amount of cash in reserves). As you can see, up until early 2010, US commercial banks were sitting on nearly $1.2 trillion in excess reserves. So in plain terms, the Fed’s money pumping (at least the money we know of) has simply been sitting on banks’ balance sheets. In other words, banks aren’t lending it out, so it’s not getting into the economy (yet). ..." From: http://seekingalpha.com/article/242...s-the-currency-collapse?source=hp_wc&wc_num=3

Billy T comment:
At present raising reserve requirement, even doubling them, would do nothing but reduce the excess of reserve requirement they already hold. Later, if and when the banks start lending again, we can expect inflation to grow. There are many more dollars outside of the US than in the US* and as they start to lose value their holders will spend or invest them. This surge in demand will increase inflation and is totally beyond control by raising bank reserve requirement as these dollars are not in the bank, but held by foreigners as green paper, or US Treasury bonds which when dumped on the market (to terminate losses) will depress the dollar more. Also nothing that rasing bank reserves requirements can do to stop China, Japan, et. al. from selling their bonds.

*This is the great difference between the US and China. There are essentailly no Yuan out side of China and few Chinese have even one credit card. Thus, raising reserve requirements in China is very effective way to slow inflation, but not in the US case with several TRILLIONS in dollars and bonds are outside of the US in the hands of foreigners who will try to spend or invest them when they are losing value a little more rapidly than now (to avoid additional losses).

SUMMARY: Raising bank reserve requirements will do essentially nothing to stem serious inflation in the US from becoming Hyper Inflation because the Trillions of dollars rapidly coming into circulation are not coming from the banks.

I have explained this difference between US and China before but you either ignore or don't understand. Raising banks reserves to control significant inflation works in China, but NOT in the US as the flood of dollar into the US economy will not be coming out of the banks.
 
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"... South Africa has been formally asked to join the BRIC group of major emerging markets, comprising Brazil, Russia, India and China, bolstering its position as Africa’s champion. Chinese President Hu Jintao wrote a letter to his South African counterpart, Jacob Zuma, to inform him of the decision and inviting him to the BRIC’s third heads of state meeting in Beijing next year, ..."

From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=adLudOXMcmfs&pos=9

Will it be BRISAC then? Note the B still leads. Here is part of why:

"... Brazil has made the most dramatic transformation of the past decade. Inflation is tame. Foreign currency reserves stand at $257 billion. It's built a formidable export machine, thanks to rich natural resources. Plus, it's boosting infrastructure investments for the 2014 World Cup and 2016 Summer Olympics. It will be one of the fastest-growing economies for the foreseeable future, and one of the biggest investment opportunities of our lifetimes. ..."
 
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kmguru said:
Not sure if Billy posted this, so here it is. http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/content/10_48/b4205021134076.htmDrop Russia from BRIC and add Indonesia and make it BICI?
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No I had not noticed but agree Indonesia is "up and coming" while Russia is coasting along on oil and gas but risky for investor.

Years ago I said I did not trust either not to just confiscate foreign interests and that still applies to Russia, but I have 6 Chinese stocks now.

Russia will be at the Beijing BRIC head of states meeting so is not in danger of being dropped now as S. Africa is added. Perhaps Indonesia will be too? Thus the still pronounceable acronym may be three syllables: BRI SAC I ?
 
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SUMMARY: China is done with "Sleeping on Brushwood and Tasting Gall"
00a9529bba4289422d817814e9a3d8ac.jpg
Goujian was the King of Yue State about 2,500 years ago, but still rules the Chinese mind ! (Since 1965, his statues, like this one, have been made and placed in hundreds of places all over China.)

"... the State of Wu defeated the State of Yue, and took the King of Yue, Goujian, and his wife prisoner. For several years, Goujian labored as a slave in Wu. When he was released and returned to Yue, Goujian was determined to take revenge for losing his state. In order not to forget his humiliation, he slept on a pile of brushwood and tasted gall before every meal. After ten years of careful preparations, he attacked and finally conquered the State of Wu.
This idiom is used to describe inspiring oneself and working hard to accomplish an ambition. ..." From: http://history.cultural-china.com/en/46H1759H3526.html
Ever since the Brits introduced Indian opium into China in large quanties (200 large chests in each clipper ship) approximately two centuries ago,
220px-Opium_ship_of_English.jpg
and soon thereafter seized Hong Kong and several other parts of China as British lands, the Chinese have been exploited* by the West (and Japan during WWII).

During these 200+ years, the Chinese have drawn inner strength from King Goujain and followed his example: Suffer with patience what you must bear, but never forget it, grow strong, and then take your revenge. China is now economically stronger than the US, and when the time is ripe (Spent down some of its dollar reserves, switched to a domestic economy and Asian nations their as main trading partners) China will crush the dollar and send US and EU into deep long lasting depression as that will remove them as significant buyers of the raw material, food stocks and energy supplies China must import.
China’s time of "Sleeping on Brushwood and Tasting Gall" is ending.

The strength of King Goujiain in Chinese culture increased when in 1965 his 2,500 year old sword was discovered, in river bank's coffin, without rust or even tarnished and edge still so sharp it easily cuts thru a stack of papers! How this could be is a great mystery, so has been scientifically investigated and sponed many popular videos etc. Here is an animated one for children with English subtitles someone up loaded into YouTube, telling both the king and sword's history in slightly more than a minute: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kLlMcNMIsUg or a five minute one for English speaking adults on the sword only at: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lsEVrZxvo5w&NR=1 Both very interesting, IMHO. In view of the influence of king Goujian on current Chinese thought about the need to endure but take revenge when strong enough, it is possible to allegorically think a long dead king will slay China's current rival for world power.
Here is the sword with metals used in the sword below this tall image:
100px-Goujian_sword_and_inscript_detail.svg.png

Amount of element by percentage
Part examined .... Copper......Tin....Lead...Iron.. Sulfur ..Arsenic
Blade .................. 80.3 ........18.8..... 0.4 .....0.4 ... - .....trace
Yellow pattern ... 83.1 ........15.2 .... 0.8 .....0.8 ..... - .....trace
Dark pattern ...... 73.9 ........22.8 .... 1.4 ... 1.8 ... trace ...trace
Darkest regions... 68.2.........29.1 .... 0.9 ... 1.2 ... 0.5 ......trace
Edge .................. 57.3 ........29.6 ..... 8.7 ... 3.4 ... 0.9 ......trace
Central ridge ..... 41.5 ........42.6 .... 6.1 .... 3.7 ... 5.9 ......trace

The body of the blade is mainly made of copper, making it more pliant and less likely to shatter; the edges have more tin content, making them harder and capable of retaining a sharper edge; the sulfur decreases the chance of tarnish in the patterns.

In view of the influence of king Goujian on current Chinese thought, especially since the 1965 discovery of his sword, about the need to endure but take revenge when strong enough, it is not unreasonable to allegorically think the long dead king will slay China's current rival for world power with his amazing sword.

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* Recent exploitation has been mainly economic, and aided by the Chinese CCP. I.e. rural Chinese were kept poor to flood Chinese sweat shops with workers willing to work 12 to 14 hour days for very little pay so Westerns could enjoy bargains in stores like Wal Mart. That is changing now as salaries climb, in real terms, by double digits, 100s of thousands of non-farm jobs are being created in the interior, mainly by the high speed rail networks and building 100 new cities for 1 million population each, in this and the next five year plan and 125 billion in new rural hospitals and clinics - See post 340 for more on this expansion of health care facilities here: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2661069&postcount=340.
 
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China spending reserves to get future food supplies:

"... China National Chemical Corp. offered to buy a controlling stake in Makhteshim-Agan Industries Ltd., the largest maker of generic agricultural chemicals, in a deal valuing the Israeli company at $2.4 billion. ... agreed to acquire 7 percent of Makhteshim from Koor Industries Ltd. and offered to buy all the publicly traded stock to bring its stake to 60 percent. From: http://noir.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aelzCLwpVEPE&pos=3

Billy T comment, Same as dozens of times before:
China is spending down reserves ASAP for long term future needs and to get into position where dumping the dollars still held will pay off economical in a couple of years with US and EU in deep depression and thus not buying much of what China needs and is buying. This 2.4 billion is trivial compared to the more than half a trillion buy of 245 new nuclear power plants*, but I mention it as it is not common to have link to China's buying food supply products - that is usually done by buying up farms.
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* More details on this big buy at: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2657306&postcount=334

PS In several posts I have mentioned that China plans to build 100 new cities for one million population each. Here is link to the first of the BBC's three parts documentary on the first to be completed (in 2008) called White Horse Village: http://www.bbc.co.uk/worldservice/documentaries/2008/12/081205_return_to_whitehorse_p1.shtml (I saw it on TV some years ago where the problems of converting old farmers into city dweller were discretely shown - old man pissing on a building wall and another looking for more private place to shit.)
 
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As I have predicted for years*:

“… Beijing is determined to accelerate China's transition toward a more domestically based economy, while stabilizing prices and cutting government waste. So in addition to strong growth numbers, investors can expect more disciplined and responsible economic development.

China's households hide as much as $1.4 trillion (9.3 trillion yuan) of income that is not reported in official figures, with 80% accrued by the country's wealthiest people, Credit Suisse Group AG said in a recent report. The average urban disposable household income in China is $4,866 (32,154 yuan) a year, or 90% more than official figures, according to the report. The top 10% of China's households take in $21,035 (139,000 yuan) a year, more than triple the official figures… Westerners have misjudged the progress the country has made transitioning to a more domestically based economy.

Westerners also have underestimated the effectiveness of government programs, such as the 50-year "Go West" campaign to balance growth from the seaboard to the inner provinces, says Fitz-Gerald. "The two biggest misconceptions that Westerners have about China are that it's solely dependent on exports and manufacturing, and that the fact that they're communist will somehow interfere with capitalist development," he said. "If anything Chinese style communism has proven remarkably stable."…"

From: http://moneymorning.com/2011/01/05/2011-china-outlook-the-red-dragon-takes-its-next-step-forward/

* This shift to a domestic economy trading mainly with Asia (and suppliers of raw material, energy & food stocks, such as Brazil) plus the spending down of dollar reserves in purchases** and long-term import contracts,*** will get China to the point that the every year saving on imports cost (with US & EU in history's "greatest depression") will more than compensate for the ONE TIME loss as they dump US bonds to destroy the dollar -making the "Greatest Depression" for the west. If you think China would not want to do that, read post 358 to understand that destroying the West is at least a century old Chinese desire.

** more than half a trillion dollars for 245 new nuclear power plants is one of the bigger buys, which makes a big dent in dollar reserves held.

*** Such as 10 billion dollars paid to PertroBras a few years ago for 200,000 barrels of oil / day for next 20 years. - A smart move by China as that is less than half the current price of oil and probably less than 10% of the price the US must pay 20 years from now but US is broke and does not have funds to lock in low cost oil now for future delivery.
"... The nearly 1 million Chinese workers {now in Africa building hydroPower dams etc.} are helping to build infrastructure projects, will not only secure access to natural resources for China but also improve the quality of life for Africans. ..." This final quote from: http://www.forbes.com/2011/01/05/ch...itizenship-rein.html?partner=daily_newsletter

PS I now call GWB's coming depression the "Greatest Depression" as that is more compact than my prior words: "worst and longer lasting than the 1920 depression by far" but these two words still mean that.
 
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