BRIC+ News & comments

[Billy T]

Here is why even with a dramatic fall in home prices in China, there will be little effect upon the Chinese economy. I.e. even if they were to have the US´s 30% drop in home prices, (instead of at most 5% now) China does not go into a "deleveraging" recession or depression as the US has and I think will:

"... according to a 2010 Citi survey, only 18% of households borrow money from banks to buy property; ... This is vastly different from the US experience, where consumers drowning in debt financed the property boom. {Billy T insert: Article explains that owning a home is essentially a requirement by custom before a man can marry. With only one son for every four parents (nearly half of the one child per couple children are girls) the four parents often buy him (and their daughter) a house with cash from their saving so they will have a grandchild to spoil.}

Unfortunately, many US homeowners have recently experienced first-hand that when property prices fall, the debt remains. It is the debt overhang that causes consumers to stop spending, banks to stop lending, and real estate developers to collapse. {China, both as a nation and as a people, is approximately debt free due to very frugal living and traditionally saving about 50% of income}

Chinese consumers come from a different vantage point: afraid of inflation and limited in ability to invest abroad, the Chinese {invested mainly in real esate and spend to avoid expected higher prices later} ...

We don’t doubt for a minute that Chinese real estate prices could plunge.* However, we take exception to the conclusion that China is thus destined to suffer the same consequence as Spain or the US. When leverage is not employed, consumers may react to a drop in real-estate prices similarly as they would to a drop in stock prices. ... As such, the drag caused by a housing bust in China on consumer spending may be limited. ...

As Chinese policymakers have come to the realization that administrative tools are not very effective in containing inflation, they have embraced currency appreciation as a tool to tame domestic inflationary pressures. A stronger Chinese renminbi will also serve as another catalyst for the rapid transformation of the Chinese economy towards a greater focus on domestic consumption. ..."

Quote from: http://www.moneyshow.com/investing/article/29/GlobalPer-26431/What-Will-China-Do-With-Its-Currency?/

* Billy T comment:If they do, prices will turn back up much quicker than in the US as more than a 120 million former farmers are moving to the cities. Last month for first time in human history, slighly more than half of all Chinese lived in urban areas. I.e. half of 340 million Chinese (170 million utbanites) with 120 million to become urbanites this decade, still leaves 50 million (1 in every seven Chinese) on the farms - much higher fraction of population as farmers than the US.

Note quote is much like what Billy T has been predicting for years - Switch to more of a domestic market driven economy, let the RMB appreciate both to fight inflation and to get its value to level where it can enter freely in foreign exchange market, and if China backs its RMB bonds by gold for central banks, as I have predicted, displace the dollar as the main reserve currency. China wants the huge advantage of paying for its imports with printed paper, which the US has enjoyed for about 100 years.

 

[Billy T]

Norway is not a BRIC, but Russia is. Remember pre-Iraq invasion we were told that oil sales would pay the cost of the war? Well production is not yet back to the level it had when Saddam let France´s Total run the show.

"... The gigantic Phase-2 oilfield is estimated to hold approximately 12.9 billion barrels of oil. Statoil and Lukoil had inked a 20-year field development contract in December 2009, with an aim to raise output to 1.8 million barrels per day within a period of six years. Per the deal, Statoil has the right to divest its stake to another company after receiving consent from the oil ministry.

Statoil, Lukoil and Iraq’s North Oil Company are partners in the West Qurna Phase-2 field with stakes of 18.75%, 56.25% and 25%, respectively. Statoil is looking to dispose its stake in the field because of rising social insecurity amid escalating political tension. ...

Statoil has received approval from the Iraqi oil ministry with respect to selling its stake to Lukoil and the deal is in its final stages ... " qoute from: http://www.zacks.com/stock/news/69111/Statoil+to+Exit+West+Qurna+Phase+2

Billy T comment: As a share holder of STO, I´m glad they are selling out before Iraq falls completely apart and as I predicted pre invasion this southern Iraq oil is controlled by Iran.

 

[Billy T]

China´s labor shortage is spreading to the interior! & Minimum wage to be increased 13% annually each year of this 5-year plan (from another of today´s ChinaDaily articles)

" {article title is:} Inland companies struggle to retain workers

CHANGSHA - A furious battle for manpower has erupted in China as manufacturers shift production westward from increasingly expensive coastal areas to less-developed inland provinces. At a career fair held Monday in central China's Hunan province, more than 6,000 positions at 80 enterprises were advertised. But Guo Hongbo, the human resources manager of a branch factory of Tsingtao Brewery Co Ltd, received only seven applicants.

Guo expected to hire at least 50 laborers for a recently established production line in one of the company's factories. "Not only do we compete with the coastal areas, where migrant workers used to flow, but more companies that have relocated their production inland are grabbing laborers," said Guo. ... The company offers wages as high as 1,900 yuan ($351), nearly as much as those offered in the export hub of Shenzhen, Guo said.

Favorable welfare packages that include medical and social insurance are being offered by the companies to entice potential employees. "There are many returnees who choose to work at home, but there are still not enough to meet the aggressive demands of rapidly expanding enterprises," Guo said. ...
"We even encourage our employees to lure their relatives or classmates," Guo said. "Those who introduce new applicants can receive compensation for their effort."

Guo's concern is echoed by Zhou Yingjing, the human resources director of Chutian Technology Co Ltd. ... "Hiring has become a headache, as skilled workers now vote with their feet, changing their jobs if they are not happy," Zhou said. ... "It has created additional hiring difficulties, as we have invested a great deal in their training and then they leave without a word," Zhou said.

Luo Weihua, the labor bureau chief of Hunan's Ningxiang county, said: ... "The central provinces have been expanding fast, requiring larger numbers of skilled workers and making it hard to fill in the gaps," Luo said. ... "More people have acquired access to higher education with China's expansion of university enrollment, which has aggressively depleted the supply of low-level laborers. The situation will likely become worse in light of weakened population growth," Zhang said. ..."

From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-02/08/content_14559006.htm

 

[Billy T]

"... From 2001 to 2009, China's GDP soared at an average rate of 14.9% annually (as measured in its own currency). That's stunning growth any way you slice it. And it compares more favorably against America's anemic 4% growth over the same period. From 1970 through 2009, China's economy grew 146 times larger, while the U.S. grew just 13.5 times larger.

But you might be less familiar with the prospects for India, which is not far behind with 1.2 billion citizens, but is much less developed. From 2001 to 2008, India put up an astounding 13.5% growth rate (in its own currency). Since 1970, India's economy has grown nearly 140 times its original size, compared to just 13.5 times for the U.S.

Consider this for just a minute: 2.5 billion consumers -- eight times as many as the U.S. -- are only just recently getting access to the Western-style products that dominate American and European markets. And then there's also further opportunity in Russia, Brazil, Indonesia, as well as the many nations of Africa. While their populations aren't as large, the growth rates are still very enviable.
{BT insert: Soon China will not need to sell to Americans but to this eight times larger group of people buying their first TV, refrigerator, and economical car, etc. Then there is no reason for China to finance the US´s growing debts - Better for China if US does collapes and then is not a competitor for minerals, oil etc. China needs to import.}

Those levels of industrialization have spawned an upwardly mobile middle class that is growing at a tremendous clip. ..."
{BT insert: US´s middle class is slowly shrinking,especially as fraction of the population.}

From: http://www.fool.com/newsletters/18/sfr/38/01.htm?source=isasiteml0910083&u=286786813

Here is relative GDP growth graphically - They must be doing something right. Their "Enduring GDP" EGDP, is about the same size as that of the US as so much of US´s GDP does not endure - has no more value than the super bowl expenditures have only a month from now.

by 10Feb12 edit: Yuan at 18-year high of 6.2937 /$ - Perhaps below 6/$ by year´s end?

 

[Billy T]

This is in Amsterdam - New "Green seats" to be made from sugar, not oil.

First 2000 now being installed. Later all will replaced with polyethene seats made from Brazilian sugar cane by process shown below:

All seats for next world cup (Brazil 2014) will be "sugar seats."
Brazil is leading the world down a new, non-oil path to a green future.

More details (and five more photos) at: httphttp://edition.cnn.com/2012/02/09/sport/football/football-sugar-seats-brazil-amsterdam/index.html?hpt=hp_c3

Braskem also has a 200,000 tons per year plant making polyproplyene from sugar of sugar cane.

Note also the 1.7% of Brazil´s sugar now used for plastic takes 0.02% of Brazil potential farm land. Thus only 0.02%x (100/1.7) means < 1.2% of Brazil´s farm land is producing sugar cane and it is ~500 miles south from the Amazon rain forest. Forget all the oil companies self serving lies than alcohol fuel would or is destroying the rain forest.

Sugar cane can grow in many unused tropical or near tropical lands, not just Brazil and give work to the local poor. Yields per acre are increasing and genetic varieties that would do well in southern Florida or US Gulf coast exist, but oil companies don´t want you to know this. The DNA of many varities of sugar cane is now known and man is learning what parts make what good results, etc.

 

[Billy T]

Up dating this post (which up dates and quotes earlier post 205): http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2637436&postcount=325

"... {Brazil’s} President Dilma Rousseff and her top advisers believe that Dassault Aviation's bid to sell at least 36 Rafales offers the best terms among the three finalists, ... The contract will have an initial value of about $4 billion but will likely be worth considerably more over time once maintenance and follow-on orders are included. ...
... because the {French} jet had not found any buyers outside France. That raised doubts about whether Dassault would have the scale necessary to build the jets at a reasonable cost and maintain them over time. ... Those concerns were assuaged when India announced on January 31 {2012} that it had entered exclusive talks to buy 126 Rafales. ... "The India deal changed everything," one of the Brazilian sources said. ... From: http://news.yahoo.com/brazil-very-likely-choose-french-fighter-jet-sources-024615660.html

Billy T comment: Because the US backed the Columbian dictator (See link to post 325 given at top) and threatened Brazil by trying* to build two fighter bomber bases just over the border in Columbia, with the approval of the US´s puppet government there, Brazil wanted not only state of the art fighter interceptors, but also ordered four submarines and is trying to buy the very sophisticated (can hit even incoming IBMs) air defense system Russia has developed, but never sold to anyone else.

The cost of this foolish support of the Columbian dictator (who would with US fighter bomber help would try for second time to topple Hugo Chavez) to Boeing and US exports has been enormous - If 36 is 4 billion then (36 +126) = 162 is about 18 billion, not to mention giving (at least to informed, non-Americans) a lie to US claims to support democracy, not dictators, and to seek peaceful resolution of conflicts, when force is the US tradition in fact.

--------------
*The people of Columbia rose up and overthrew that US puppet dictator and then the permission to build fighter bomber bases in Columbia was cancelled. The almost open war between Columbia and Venezuela the US promoted has also ended. They have reestablished cross border trade etc. But Brazil is going ahead with up grade of its defenses - IMHO a wise decision as US has a long history of invading to take oil and Brazil´s new oil discoveries are the world´s largest new deposits.

One can easily note the increasing hostility the US shows towards Brazil. - That was especially clear recently when US supported the military coup in Honduras, but Brazil protected the elected president in its embassy in the capital, etc. Brazil trades with Iran. Brazil had tried to resolve the Iranian nuclear impass by suggesting that Iran only give up (export to Russia for more enrichment & then to France for fuel rod fabrication) part of its enriched U238+U235 for processing into fuel rods and when that was done, Iran would ship out the next batch for processing into fuel rods. Etc. for trust building. The US rejected this plan and unrealisticly insisted that 100% of Iran´s partially enriched U238+U235 be shipped out in exchange for just the promiss that it would be returned as fuel rods., etc. Clearly the US does NOT want a peaceful solution so long as Iran has oil it can take.

Certainly Iran is hostile towards the US - It is only 30 years since Iran escaped from under the dictator the the US installed to rule Iran.

 

[Billy T]

"... China is undergoing an urbanization the scale of which the world has never seen. By 2025, China will have added 350 million urban residents to its population (more than the entire population of the U.S. today), and five years later will have a total city population of more than 1 billion. ...

To house all those new urban residents (240 million of whom will be migrants from the countryside), China will pave 5 billion square meters of road, add up to 170 mass transit systems, and build 40 billion square meters of floor space.

All told, China will have 221 cities with more than 1 million residents, and eight megacities, each with a population of more than 10 million. ..."

From: http://images.businessweek.com/ss/08/11/1112_china_megacities/index.htm

Billy T comment: Nothing here very different from items I posted long ago, but perhaps more will believe it from Business Week.

 

[Billy T]

"... While Venezuela has received more than $30 billion of loans from China for infrastructure projects, the repayment of financing agreements falls on the shoulders of PDVSA, which sends the world’s second-largest economy about 400,000 barrels a day without directly receiving any revenue. ...

“The 419,000 barrels of oil a day sent to China in the first quarter of 2011 represent a very heavy financial burden for PDVSA and requires a structural solution,” Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez said in a memo sent to Chavez in April of last year that was released by opposition lawmaker Miguel Angel Rodriguez.

Ramirez said in November that Venezuela’s government had modified the structure for shipments to China and that PDVSA would receive around $7 billion for its deliveries there in 2011. The minister, also PDVSA’s president, said on Feb. 9 that China paid Venezuela higher prices than the U.S. and that PDVSA wanted to double oil exports to the Asian country by 2015. ..."

From: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-...h-by-curbing-state-oil-investment-energy.html

Billy T made end of text bold. As many fear, including DoE,* the years in which the gulf coast refineries, which were designed to process heavy crude, get Venezuela’s crude are probably limited. - Why Keystone is so essentail. US needs their refined product production.

* see post: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2742509&postcount=395 and the two links to older posts partially quoted therein.

 

[Billy T]

Not much of a reduction in percent but considering US trade deficit with China was highest ever it is impressive that they sill were able to reduce their holding of dollar assest.

"MUSCATINE, Iowa - China, the largest foreign creditor to the United States, cut its net holdings of US Treasury debt in December for the third consecutive month, according to new data released by the US Treasury Department on Wednesday.

The Treasury International Capital System, or TIC, data shows that China cut its holdings by $31.9 billion to $1.1 trillion.

The data also show that foreign investors overall were net sellers of longterm US financial assets in December. The net foreign capital inflow was $48.2 billion, compared with an inflow of $35.6 billion in November. "

From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/us/2012-02/16/content_14625542.htm

 

[Billy T]

As I have predicted for years:

"... NANCHANG — China's exports to markets except for four developed regions — the United States, the European Union, Japan and Hong Kong — will gain five percentage points in market share by 2015, said Zhong Shan, vice-minister of commerce.

While the outlook for developed economies is grim, China will prioritize emerging markets to grow its exports, especially those owning a rich reservoir of natural resources and with large populations that currently register limited foreign trade with China, Zhong said. ...

In January, China's exports declined slightly by 0.5 percent year-on-year to $149.9 billion. Exports to the EU, the largest destination for made-in-China goods, fell by 3.2 percent year-on-year because of the EU sovereign debt crisis.

China's central and western regions will also be strategically important for the nation in stabilizing exports over the next five years. By 2015, the ratio of the foreign trade in the central and western regions to China's total will raise by five percentage points, said Zhong. ..."

From: http://usa.chinadaily.com.cn/business/2012-02/20/content_14647727.htm

Only a few years more before China can tell US and EU to:
Go to Hell - We don´t need you to buy our goods so we no longer lend funds to you.

PS: To encourage domestic growth / market, Chinese bank deposit requirments were reduced 0.5% on 18 Feb12. - Another indication that China has inflation under control.

 

[Billy T]

"... Brazil surpassed the USA as the largest exporter of soybeans last year.
It sent 20 million tons to China alone. Argentina sold $6 billion of soybeans, $11 billion of soy flour and $8 billion of soy oil to China in 2011. That generated $10 billion in export taxes and accounted for 4% of Argentina's GDP.

Chinese companies are even buying giant tracts of farmland in Argentina. If they cannot buy it, they lease the land to bolster food supplies. A huge $1.5 billion lease for 300,000 hectares was announced last year.

China will keep spending to get whatever it can.* It desperately needs to import food because it cannot support 1.3 billion people on its domestic arable land. ..."
Quote From: http://www.insideinvestingdaily.com...&o=625035&s=629393&u=40779324&l=389326&r=Milo

*Billy T comment: Part of the huge increase in soy imports has been caused by the increasing wealth of ordinary Chinese - they are eating more pork and this is just beginning of a diet change for 300+ million people (who could rarely afford pork last year). China feeds more pigs than all the rest of the world does for its growing domestic pork consumption and yet law of supply and demand is still driving the price of pork higher!

Also important factor is that China is (and wants to continue) reducing the dollars it holds in its reserves. (Actual absolute reductions, not just reduced percentage held in dollars and is doing this despite record trade balances with the US!)

I.e. buy things of real value China needs now and with paid up front delivery contracts, up to even 30 years into the future! China knows that the dollar will collapse in value when China not only decides to hold less as it has already (as many other have already too) but to not lend to the US and EU. With both US & EU in deep long-lasting depression, the cost of China´s importes will be much lower. - Very important in a few years when China will need more oil than the US.

PS Foxconn, world´s largest maker of electronic, announce today that assembly line salarys would increase between 16 & 25%. This on top of the ~ 30% increases given last year. - I forget number of employees Foxconn has, but it is north of 100,000 so the demand for pork will rise more.

Later by edit there are 235,000 foxconn employees AT JUST ONE of the "campus plants" - roughly the population of Orlando, Fla. also:"A total of 18 Foxconn employees took their own lives, or tried to, in recent years and given the company's massive size, it is a suicide rate well below China's national average." and
"Foxconn's robots will replace roughly half the firm's 1.2 million workers in China. No one has gone from 10,000 robots to 1 million in such a short period of time. Let's look at some stats from the International Federation of Robotics:

According to this robotics trade group, only about 1 million industrial robots are now in use around the world. So, Foxconn alone will double the number as it works to automate its factories. ..." Quote From: http://moneymorning.com/2012/02/22/a-new-robotic-horde-means-big-business-for-irobot-nasdaq-irbt/

 

[Gustav]

suicide nets

In 20 years, there will be only two companies. Everything will be made by Foxconn and sold by WalMart

 

[Billy T]

US exporting LNG looks ever less likely. All the hoped for buyers have their own.

Biggest loser is Russia. China is backing out of deal to import NG from them via newly completed pipeline and also Poland can supply EU at half the price Gasprom was charging.

Not shown on above map is Tanzania / Mozambique region, Africa´s southeastern ocean border, which is considered to hold vast liquefied natural gas (LNG) resources. According to estimates, energy players plan to spend about $50 billion over the next decade for LNG development in this region. Norway´s StatOil just announced its first well has hit gas, but they will drill deeper for about 3 months to see if there is also the oil they expect. This region is not the African one that once joined the huge Brazilian "pre-salt" field (when there was no Atlantic ocean).
Africa is extremely rich in all natural resources, farms included. China is claiming this prize - see post 535.
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BTW, China, which had 6.5% inflation rate in summer of 2011 beat it down to only 4.1% in December 2011, but heavy demand by newly rich Chinese for the new Dragon year in January drove it back up to 4.5% in January. Thus the reduction of bank reserve requirements just announced probably is the last for half a year or so. China has a very well managed economy. Their so called (but not really compared to those in the West) "housing bubble" did not burst - but on average prices have come down under control about 7% - Nothing like the US 30+% collapse.

 

[Billy T]

In addition to Gustav´s post 532 ´picture here is detail infromation on Foxconn including a video:
http://news.yahoo.com/trip-ifactory...limpse-inside-apples-001926196--abc-news.html

One thing I found interesting the it is mainly the assembly robots that talk - they are saying "Ok" all the time. Also interesting is that Foxconn needs to hire several thousand people today, (& every work day! at least until their 1 million production line robot are operating.}

 

[Billy T]

The "New Colonization" of Africa. (and part* of why US Will have no foreign customers for its Natural Gas):

"... China has been on a campaign to become the biggest global power in Africa, and it is succeeding. In early 2010, it was reported that China bought up half the farmland in Congo. Eastern Congo is home to vast mineral wealth. {Billy T insert: Part of how they are reducing dollars in reserves despite record trade surpluses with the US. (As I forecast)}

China's also been after African oil reserves. It gave Angola -- OPEC's newest member -- $20 billion in reconstruction loans in 2009. In return, Angola has given China access to its oil. All told, between 2003 and 2008, Chinese direct investment in Africa has soared from $500 million to more than $8 billion... And that was before the massive loan to Angola!...
{BT insert: Much like the deal China gave Brazil ~5 years ago I think. I.e. 10 billion dollar loan to be repaid by 20 years of 200,000 barrels of oil per day average sent to China.}

Africa may be the place to be over the next decade. Case in point, from Bloomberg:
Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSA)'s $1.6 billion bid for Cove Energy Plc (COV) starts a race to develop natural-gas fields off Mozambique's Indian Ocean coast that may hold more than Norway's entire reserves. Winning Cove would give Shell an 8.5 percent stake in a block where Anadarko Petroleum Corp. (APC) has found 30 trillion cubic feet of gas. Italy's Eni SpA (ENI) has discovered even more in a neighboring area. Together, there's sufficient fuel for the development of two $20 billion liquefied natural gas plants to supply customers in Asia, according to Deutsche Bank AG.

The fact that these reserves are on the east coast of Africa means a lot for power-hungry China. Even if China doesn't get in on the drilling side of this massive development, you can bet it'll want to buy a lot of the production. That goes for India, too.

According to Sanford C. Bernstein & Co., demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is climbing at 20% a year in Asia. {BT insert: partly due to Japan´s nuclear disaster} In fact, demand for LNG in China could double by 2015. That's good news for Anadarko Petroleum Corp. and Eni. ..."

From today´s Email form: Sara Nunnally, Editor, Macro Trader at InsiderTrader.com

-------------------
*Other part is that Poland will be producing to supply EU at half the price GasProm currently chages. This is very bad news for Russia, as China has nearly50% more NG than the US does and is still finding more, Thus China is backing out of the deal to use the just completed 48 inch NG pipeline Russian built to the Chinese border. In a few decades, when Arctic is ice free, Russian gas form Siberian fields may be cheaper in China than these new African fields (or the then old pipeline may be used?) as then with present trends, China´s energy needs will be about same as current world total. No foreign customers for the US for decades and but by then it may need all its NG domestically for electric power and NG fueled cars and trucks.

See, not fully up to date map of shale NG in post 533 for more.

 

[elte]

According to that map, there appears to be shale gas around the New Madrid fault.

 

[Billy T]

More on post 535, from different source in a video here:
http://www.uncommonwisdomdaily.com/the-china-africa-oil-connection-13812?FIELD9=2

With this as the lead in text:
"... Some of the biggest recent oil and natural gas discoveries have come from Africa, and the world’s biggest energy companies are increasingly looking to this country to meet their growing demand. With many countries, particularly China, rushing to be among the first in line to grab these vital resources, this growing “Chi-Africa” connection promises to be a profitable one. Watch today’s video to learn more. ..."

Too bad US had its lower 48 "peak oil" (except for possible expensive shale oil fields) more than a decade ago and the Alaskan field is already in decline. China is locking up all the available new, economical, conventional oil now.

 

[Billy T]

State of Sao Paulo, where 90% of Brazil´s sugar cane is grown & processed more than 500 miles from the Amazon, plans to invest (loan?) 65 billion* R$ by 2015 to expand the growing of sugar cane. (It has been in tight supply, more expensive than gasoline per mile driven, in part due to bad weather, but also due to 400,000 tons per year of plastic being production from sugar alcohol. See post here for more on this plastic: http://www.sciforums.com/showpost.php?p=2901705&postcount=525 )

"... SÃO PAULO, 24 FEV - O governo lançou nesta sexta-feira um plano que prevê financiamentos da ordem de 65 bilhões de reais até 2015 ao setor de cana-de-açúcar com o objetivo de expandir a oferta da matéria-prima para a produção de etanol no Brasil, informou o Ministério da Agricultura. ..."

* roughly (calculator is dead) 40 billion dollars.

As stated at end of post 525, Brazil is leading the world towards a nearly oil free future at least for fuel but don´t worry PetroBras will be one of the major oil sellers.

 

[Gustav]

i say!
what environmental impact does all this sugarcane have on us?

 

[adam2314]

" (calculator is dead) " .

Power Cut ???.. )