The day that happens {China tells US to go to hell – not needed as customer…} will be the day that China doesn't need anyone to buy their production, because they will have become a service economy.
No, not only services. China’s factories will be making the locomotives, steel rails and rolling stock, ports cranes, tractors, earth movers for road constructions, computers, TVs, cell phones, even cars and planes, etc, that they have committed to deliver to many African and South American countries in exchange for their minerals, food stocks, and energy supplies (especially from Brazil, which has all three for export) under both spot deals and 30 year contracts, already signed.*
At the G – 20, president Lula and Hu Jntao discussed ceasing to use the dollar for their mutual and growing trade. (36.5 billion dollars in 2008, but I cannot tell from paper’s text if that was the total or Brazil’s exports only. I think the later as in March 2009, Brazil’s bilateral trade net surplus was +508 million dollars. ) Brazil’s top four exports to China were: Iron ore, soy, sugar and airplanes (Probably mainly finished parts for the jointly owned factory Embaraer made. – AFAIK, China has ceased to buy American planes now and has huge needs for the shorter range 100+ seat regional jets made at Harbin as the wealthy Chinese now travel by air.)
Lula goes to China in May, with many industrial leaders, to firm up the currency swap details the central banks will make. I.e. before the start of 2010 Brazilian importers will get the Yuan needed to pay for their Chinese imports from Brazil’s central bank. For nearly a year now Brazil and Argentina have ceased to use the dollar in bilateral trade and Brazil is in discussion with several other S.A. countries to do the same. Brazil is in the top 10 (the top 5? – I forget.) holders of dollars in its reserves, but will soon start to hold Yuan, more I think. As you surely know China is promoting a “de-dollarization” of global trade and transfers.
Again, I know that the big international auto makers own most of the car factories all over the world, but my focus is on where they are making cars, where the jobs are, and they are hiring workers instead of giving “early out” bonuses an making mass lay offs. In last post, I even mentioned that there is now no Brazilian car maker (was one, Gugel years ago.) and no car that I know of is 100% made in any one country. China does have a dozen or so –Two biggest I know of are “Great Wall motors” and Cherry but the BYD electric car, which W. Buffet owns 10% of is growing fast. (BYD = Build Your Dream and makes more Li-ion batteries than anyone else in the world, but mainly for computers until recent scale up for cars.)
Volatility in durable goods data is such a well-known issue that no serious person would use them to make predictions. I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here by assuming that you didn't realize this; if you ARE aware of this, and persist in making predictions based on durable goods sales, then that will look an awful lot like intentionally misleading.
I know that durable sales fall faster (and diversions like theater and beer, etc. tend to rise as hard times come.) but you are wrong to assume my prediction (made four years ago and still unchanged) were based on the slump that started in October 2008!
All I am really doing now is saying that many others can see that the day is coming when China tells the US to go to Hell – that US’s green paper will not buy much – that Chinese will no longer work long hours for peanuts to stock the shelve of Wal- Mart so Americans can buy cheap. This is an old prediction of mine made back when home prices and car sale were annually soaring.
I will give you the benefit of the doubt and assume that you just forgot all my old posts. 
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*Here are a few of the 2009 deals China has made (in part to invest in real assets, not US treasury paper):
“China, the world’s second-biggest energy consumer, may agree next week on lending $10 billion to Kazakhstan in return for the right to take a stake in an oil producer in the Central Asian country. …The central Asian nation is seeking $10 billion in Chinese investments, while talks are under way with China’s biggest oil company on the sale of a stake, Energy Minister Sauat Mynbayev said on April 6, {2009}. …Russia, which agreed in February to supply China with oil for 20 years in return for $25 billion in credit, is in discussions with the country for additional loans for natural gas supplies … “
From:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aUOIM8lpvLrM&refer=home
Earlier in 2009, Brazil and Venezuela each got 10 billion dollars for delivery of oil. (As I recall, Brazil gives 160,000 Barrels / day until the $10E9, priced at market daily, and has been repaid. Think Venezuela has same deal.) I cannot find article of only yesterday, but China is giving a few billion or so to Ecuador for minerals as I recall. China has expressed fear of the dollar and is doing things rapidly now to protect its self from holding too many.
