Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

I think it would be illogical to assume that North Korea was some how spared the initial spread in late December 2019 to early January 2020.
Therefore the probability that NK has been enduring the pandemic with out international disclosure is extremely high.
Possibly the fact that so many are infected in a SK/NK border town, NK is forced to publicly declare their pandemic because any attempt to maintain secrecy would ultimately expose their nation wide pandemic history (which may prove in the future to be particularly tragic). By controlling the narrative and pointing to a SK source further positions the regime in their ongoing paranoid hostilities towards SK.

i dont know anything about NK
 
Dunning-Kruger ensures you and your argumentum ad populum ("many folks") will never be able to evaluate either beyond your own capacity. There's nothing I can do to overcome that.

Yes, well I'm sure if a thousand or a million folks pointed out your inability to reason, you'd still say it's all about argumentum ad populum. Dunning-Kruger candidates always think everyone else is wrong and they're right. Lol.
 
Depends on if you're foolish enough to take everything Trump says seriously. I don't.
You imply that you and his other supporters have some kind of innate ability to tell when he is not to be taken seriously and when he is. It reminds me of how a lot of Christians read the bible, saying they know that it's not all to be taken literally, but they somehow know which bits are to be taken as literally true and which are merely advisory or metaphorical.

Does it work like that for you with Trump?
Just a healthy sense of humor and a dash of common sense. Both sorely lacking on the left.


Yes, well I'm sure if a thousand or a million folks pointed out your inability to reason, you'd still say it's all about argumentum ad populum. Dunning-Kruger candidates always think everyone else is wrong and they're right. Lol.
Claiming what even more people would say, without evidence, is even more so argumentum ad populum. Way to double down on that fallacy.
The corollary to Dunning-Kruger is also true.
 
It's facetious to think the federal government can control state and local municipality testing AND the higher number of cases is being used as a political attack, even though that number has diverged from hospitalizations and deaths.
So add "facetious" to the long list of fancy sounding words you have never bothered to look up.
(btw: That kind of language - big words used without knowing what they mean - is one of the classic symptoms of a Dunning-Kruger victim.)

But the royal biff there was your attempt to read the lag time between infection and hospitalization/death as some kind of evidence that the bad news is not so bad.
 
Claiming what even more people would say, without evidence

That's the point, the evidence is all over these forums, they are the words you post here and they lack reason. How many folks will it take to tell you lack reason before you understand you lack reason?
 
There have been a few treatments now established (some unpronounceable).

Has there been any research that shows a relationship between mortality (and other) rates now and compared to earlier in the epidemic when treatments were non-existent?

The latest arthritis drug that hey are beginning to run trials on looks hopeful.....
 
Has there been any research that shows a relationship between mortality (and other) rates now and compared to earlier in the epidemic when treatments were non-existent?
Just eyeballing the two curves we are seeing 4x fewer fatalities per case in the US for the 'second wave.' I think this is due to:

1) More experience with ventilator use. The "happy hypoxic" lower PEEP approach seems to work.
2) This time around younger people are getting COVID-19 and their outcomes are generally better.
3) Everyone is getting (slightly) better about masking and hygeine around at-risk people so fewer of them are getting it.
4) Remdesivir and Dexamethazone are showing some promise, and that is having a small (but detectable) effect on death rates.
 
Just eyeballing the two curves we are seeing 4x fewer fatalities per case in the US for the 'second wave.' I think this is due to:

1) More experience with ventilator use. The "happy hypoxic" lower PEEP approach seems to work.
2) This time around younger people are getting COVID-19 and their outcomes are generally better.
3) Everyone is getting (slightly) better about masking and hygeine around at-risk people so fewer of them are getting it.
4) Remdesivir and Dexamethazone are showing some promise, and that is having a small (but detectable) effect on death rates.
There is proning too. (was that included in (3)?
 
Just eyeballing the two curves we are seeing 4x fewer fatalities per case in the US for the 'second wave.' I think this is due to:

1) More experience with ventilator use. The "happy hypoxic" lower PEEP approach seems to work.
2) This time around younger people are getting COVID-19 and their outcomes are generally better.
3) Everyone is getting (slightly) better about masking and hygeine around at-risk people so fewer of them are getting it.
4) Remdesivir and Dexamethazone are showing some promise, and that is having a small (but detectable) effect on death rates.
I suspect the key thing is that at-risk people and their carers have now got the message and have effective ways to avoid infection. A lot of early deaths were in care homes, for instance.

But I’m sure you are right about the other factors too. It would be strange if we had not learnt by now at least some ways to mitigate the worst effects.
 
A lot of early deaths were in care homes

lowest level of care & respect
most financially exploited(in the west)

highest level of complex medical conditions
lowest level of immune system
one of the highest levels of physical contact with children who are super spreaders & super carriers
lowest levels of vitamin & mineral (rich)supplement diets

usa rest homes are a denial of service policy to exploit as much profit off the elderly as possible

SOoo...

the statistic by its self as "care-home" tends to present more un answered questions than answering any data question for infectious(communicable) normalcy

their carers have now got the message
their carers are minimum wage & illegal aliens

their carers do not decide how much money or what levels of care they get
their carers also do not decide process or policy on hygiene process and application

how many elderly patients does 1 USA Care-Home nurse[minimum wage{working visa\illegal}] have to manage daily and weekly ?

care homes
USA = elderly people (& a small number of mentally disabled residential care facilities depending on how the usa person wants to exploit a point to win an argument)
UK = disabled people
Rest home UK = elderly people
Rest home USA has been maneuvered out of common usage to try and power grab the fear of the aging process as a social culture narrative(that is a bit annoying but thats culture like it or not)
note Italy(& Spain) with its large population of older independent citizens whom were independent yet high risk
and suffered catastrophic deaths
 
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at-risk people and

sub narrative groupings to dis-empower concepts

not all at risk people have carers

are you specifically referring to USA culture & the narrative of monetary wealth being the only human value of independent human respect as a citizen ?
touchy subject but very real(has many cross cultural different variations)

needs based selfish psychopathic projection

the idea that all high risk immune people will be lazy commy good for nothing hippie crims

"at-risk"
lazy good for nothing
self entitled rich idle

...

keeping in mind fat usa people kill themselves with heart attacks by choosing to be fat and un fit and eating rubbish

whos conversation are we having ?
(i prefer to stay on the science side)
 
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Here in Melbourne Au. we are in the middle of what could and probably will be "Nursing home" catastrophe.
All because of at least three main issues. IMO
  1. Underestimation of the threat.
  2. Complacency and denial.
  3. Wanting to hedge longer term success. with immediate economic needs
Currently Victoria is in a major 2nd wave spike with no apparent end to it's growth. (level 3 lock-down)
Example of complacency and confusion.
Yesterday a young lady arrived to perform a routine bank evaluation of my rental apartment.
According to government regulation she is allowed to enter my rental and perform measurements and inspection while wearing nothing more than an ill-fitting surgical mask as PPE.
What is more problematic is that she had traveled from across the city to perform her duties and was legally allowed to transport any possible infection with her. Thus running the risk of out of region transmission.
Currently we have a 10 person + outbreak in a nursing home less than 2 km from where I live with an unknown transmission source.
This worker considered entering my apartment as being safe and with low risk with out any reason to consider that to be the case in fact she should have had every reason to have doubts about her own safety. Certainly enough doubt to require her to wear appropriate PPE and not just a simple surgical mask with out gloves, face-shield etc... and ... enough doubt to ensure my safety by wearing such.
She and I are now considered as close contacts for any future contact tracing requirements with the associated inconvenience of 14 day isolation if we are called upon due to the infection of any of her other and varied clients.
Suffice to say she should have been wearing comprehensive PPE but was not.

Complacency and underestimation is obvious and this is why we are seeing so many deaths in nursing homes and in the general population.
Unfortunately there is little doubt to me that the nation will eventually have to go in to a solid lock down ( stage 4) to reduce the transmission rate, a lock down that would have not only save lives but also the economy if installed and maintained earlier.

News is also filtering through concerning a break down of logistics Land and Sea ( freight) indicating that unless a proper handle is achieved quickly severe shortages of basic commodities will become apparent here in as little as 2-3 months. Apparently maritime workers are working out of contract and unable to leave their ships even though some have spent 14-17 months at sea with out any break. Trucking has been seriously effected due to border closures etc...
 
my safety
because it is your residential dwelling(in Australian law)
you maintain the legal right to refuse entry based on the risk assessment.

her, being an employee, employed to interact with people in their place of residence, should be compliant at all times
and it is her professional duty to do so.

turning up
entering
engaging with
places her in direct accountability for her own required capacity to endanger you.

given Australian law is probably fairly robust on such issues, she is quite likely legally liable, including her employer for your cost and risk for her chosen actions in a capacity of engaging in her professional task.
it is likely that the company she works for MUST by law have a policy, process & adherence to comply with a pandemic & residential safety.

if she walked off a property and deliberately left the door open, she would be liable & her employer would be liable.
i doubt the law sees any difference in her professional capacity to bring risk into another person.

additionally, given she is entering in a professional capacity and engaging in a for profit function of business,
her employer will be liable for sterilization of your property after her visit.
Failure of her & her employer to sterilize your house after her visit is likely a breach of public order(Government health code breach in a pandemic resulting in possible incarceration[forced quarantine & treatment] &/or financial penalties)
 
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the numbers appear to be climbing
i think the "she be right mate" culture is not helping in this issue.

i think it is probably time for the ADF to take control of quarantine perimeter control(so it can free up policing to engage tighter smaller boundarys).
while many(local & central govt etc) may have the best intentions, that makes little difference if there is enough with the intent & capacity to jump fences and spread the virus.
and Aussies like to travel
 
because it is your residential dwelling(in Australian law)
you maintain the legal right to refuse entry based on the risk assessment.

her, being an employee, employed to interact with people in their place of residence, should be compliant at all times
and it is her professional duty to do so.

turning up
entering
engaging with
places her in direct accountability for her own required capacity to endanger you.

given Australian law is probably fairly robust on such issues, she is quite likely legally liable, including her employer for your cost and risk for her chosen actions in a capacity of engaging in her professional task.
it is likely that the company she works for MUST by law have a policy, process & adherence to comply with a pandemic & residential safety.

if she walked off a property and deliberately left the door open, she would be liable & her employer would be liable.
i doubt the law sees any difference in her professional capacity to bring risk into another person.

additionally, given she is entering in a professional capacity and engaging in a for profit function of business,
her employer will be liable for sterilization of your property after her visit.
Failure of her & her employer to sterilize your house after her visit is likely a breach of public order(Government health code breach in a pandemic resulting in possible incarceration[forced quarantine & treatment] &/or financial penalties)
In this time of uncertainty and rapid change ( legal and other wise) I doubt they could be asked to compensate me for their negligence. Nor would they be able to compensate for any lasting injury due to any infection that could be proven to be caused by their negligence.
The State and Federal Governments are just as liable given their underestimation of the problem we are facing.
On one hand asking for the population to self isolate and yet simultaneously on the other hand promoting the opposite. Mixed messaging being the outcome.
At the very least they could make sure that visiting professional services were made to make use of hospital grade infection control PPE when carrying out their duties and followed a minimum risk protocol. Minimising the risk to the professional person and myself at the same time.
My refusing the entry of the person due to a lack of PPE would threaten my relationship with my landlord simply because the person wishing to enter is well with in legal requirements. Any action I might take as a tenent would be deemed a protest against the lack of legal right to refuse entry. In other words essentially futile.
 

sometimes the simplicity of life is worth more than the risks or monetary costs
few people really appreciate that
i had an ah-ha moment today with someone who almost had me lodging a formal complaint against them with their manager
but i had the experience to recognize the arena their head was in and that it made no difference to me, yet i could be the one to push them over the edge(be that their own fault from ignorance or unfortunate circumstance)

& i was thinking about what MichelleO said
"when they go low, i go hi"
& i was thinking about Oprah W saying "ah-ha moment when i finally got it"
i was standing there watching it unfold
as i saw myself some years ago, and other examples of experience
& i asked myself what was important
my desire to take a chuck of flesh or seek a higher purpose and one i could feel good about for years afterward
i went hi, just hi enough to not rub their nose in it.
(this was a check out experience in a shop young wound up woman thought i was trying to steal an item but i had paid for it, she didn't say please or thank you or sorry & was a little bit rude & quit pushy and told me "you can go now" after she was done, no manners & quite obliviously wound up tighter than a fishes a-hole[she had issues, maybe her boyfriend had just dumped her for someone hotter and with no issues & her supervisor is a total drama queen and i suspect a bit racist with a very bitchy attitude unlike the blond semi super who is a total goddess{polite humble & always a total delight to interact with}])
 
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"acting supervisor" shift supervisor
not the actual proper assigned supervisor
ive seen her make under breath comments about a Chinese guy to other staff
and she has this up tight drama queen judgement vibe going on about her
total gossip bitchy cynic
probably driving the one i encountered up the wall
 
Just a healthy sense of humor and a dash of common sense. Both sorely lacking on the left.



Claiming what even more people would say, without evidence, is even more so argumentum ad populum. Way to double down on that fallacy.
The corollary to Dunning-Kruger is also true.
ok since im tired of you screaming argumentum ad populum anytime anyone points out the miriad of people who have proven you wrong. the argument is not what your representing. you are claiming it means merely pointing out to you how many people have debunked you arguments is the fallacy its not. the fallacy is saying your wrong simply because a lot of people disagree with you which no one is doing. the fact you have repeatedly shown that intelligence and ability to reason to you is entirely linked to whether someone agrees with you is kind of damning. also most of your arguments come across as a monkey banging on a sound board of conservative talking points. you've yet to have anything come across as an original thought. quite frankly you are a text book of dunning-kruegar, you are so far in the bubble you no longer have the capacity to effectively evaluate information. yes yes i know its all of us in the bubble and you are the only sane man. blah blah. should i write your reply for you its not like its gonna be original?


also seriously the left doesn't have a sense of humor? this is literally the dumbest thing you have ever said, which is saying a lot, given the plethora of articles on the fact conservatives struggle with comedy.
 
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