Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

The Melbourne, Australia Situation:
11-Aug-2020

It appears the new case numbers are starting to stabilize at around 340 per day. It is expected to fall due to the severity of the lock down.

Media are raising the question of how low the numbers need to be before reducing restrictions. Highly suggesting again the public underestimation of the problem generally.

I tend to ask how many times do we have to cycle through lock downs before we realise that we can't reduce restrictions until effective vaccines and therapies are found and deployed. ( est. 12 months)
 
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elte said:
Caution about schooling spiking up the virus spread:
https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/...ak-picture-for-the-school-year-153337845.html
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That situation — it’s like a Petri dish.”
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But children over 10 years old seem to transmit the coronavirus much like adults, raising the risk for school staff.
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interesting
1st world western society 10yo's & above have dynamic multiple group affiliations
from diverse friend groups to sports & club groups
their age makes them ideal shopping bag carriers & in tern self modular
they are the in-between age where they cant be co-managed in a group and need individual personality adaptation
this defines them to be highly socially dynamic & interactive

they also have much vaster time periods of being not under direct adult observation
cold & flu symptoms can be easily missed by parents in a 10yo child
more so boys would be ignored many factors above girls of the same age

average age of puberty girl verses/& boys
steroidal(hormone) resistance assistance ?



“I've seen them pass everything around from pink eye(conjunctivitis/iritis) to stomach flu to even influenza,” she said. “COVID-19 will not be something we can stop. And we all know that.”
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conjunctivitis/iritis
can cause permanent eye damage & if untreated or not treated fast enough can lead to blindness
 
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where is the money ?
all(most) the schools in the usa are private
if they are closed they cant force parents to buy class time the student cant use

its all about the money

they are selling out a death rate of children in exchange for their contact tracing line of poverty
poor government schools will be over crowded and their homes will have lots of elderly living with them

schools being closed is rich people problems
schools being open is dead poor people problems

will the rich people problems be exempt from the megga death virus when covid_19 mutates into a higher kill ratio ?
it will be a little too late by then to stop it
will wealth
class lines of financial wealth
prevent the virus from infecting the rich people ?

they(many usa people) seem to think it will
i doubt it very much

there is supposed to be a vaccine already in all doctors clinics by this stage !

... 2nd wave dynamics & the Armour piercing pandemic plan weapon.
friendly fire ! (or is it simple psychopathic greed?)

logic would be village quarantine where schools and the local community do not cross borders into other schools & towns
but that logic ignores tin-foil hat brigades & fence jumpers
and the tin-foil hat brigade are fake high-roller consumers
which is quite the irony
 
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RainbowSingularity said:
where is the money ?
all(most) the schools in the usa are private
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25% of the schools in the US are private.
They take 10% of the students in the US.

I have no idea what you are talking about.
if they are closed they cant force parents to buy class time the student cant use
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Remote learning = they still get paid
schools being closed is rich people problems
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Schools being closed is a poor person's problem. A rich guy can hire a tutor. A poor family with both parents working means that someone has to quit their job, if there's no in-person schooling available. Then they lose their home because they can't make their mortgage or rent payment.
there is supposed to be a vaccine already in all doctors clinics by this stage !
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No there isn't. No scientist, doctor or researcher claimed there would be a vaccine ready by this summer.
 
I thought this may be worth posting to get a general idea about the contagious nature of COVID-19
FAQ
https://www.health.harvard.edu/diseases-and-conditions/if-youve-been-exposed-to-the-coronavirus

For how long after I am infected will I continue to be contagious?
At what point in my illness will I be most contagious?

People are thought to be most contagious early in the course of their illness, when they are beginning to experience symptoms, especially if they are coughing and sneezing. But people with no symptoms can also spread the coronavirus to other people if they stand too close to them. In fact, people who are infected may be more likely to spread the illness if they are asymptomatic, or in the days before they develop symptoms, because they are less likely to be isolating or adopting behaviors designed to prevent spread.

Most people with coronavirus who have symptoms will no longer be contagious by 10 days after symptoms resolve. People who test positive for the virus but never develop symptoms over the following 10 days after testing are probably no longer contagious, but again there are documented exceptions. So some experts are still recommending 14 days of isolation.

One of the main problems with general rules regarding contagion and transmission of this coronavirus is the marked differences in how it behaves in different individuals. That's why everyone needs to wear a mask and keep a physical distance of at least six feet.

Here is a more "scientific" way to determine if you are no longer contagious: have two nasal-throat tests or saliva tests 24 hours apart that are both negative for the virus.​
 
Quantum Quack said:
In fact, people who are infected may be more likely to spread the illness if they are asymptomatic, or in the days before they develop symptoms, because they are less likely to be isolating or adopting behaviors designed to prevent spread.
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simple Darwinism in effect
it is logical that asymptomatic early stage strains will become the primary strain
 
The Melbourne, Australia Situation:
13-Aug-2020
Population: 5 million (2018)
Today's new cases show a distinct down ward trend. This is after:
7 days of level 4 lock down.

It is interesting to note that significant restrictions on movement plus other restrictions on work place, entertainment, hospitality venues etc can bring about significant mitigation in only 7 days.
 
Quantum Quack said:
Population
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trying to convince a beach life culture to wear face masks and hand washing with a soap is quite a task

i suspect too many Aussies throw open the door the moment someone says they are doing a little better

its either beach closed or everyone rolling around together in the sand sharing beers
 
Good news
Russia has dismissed mounting international concern over the safety of its locally developed Covid-19 vaccine as "absolutely groundless".

On Tuesday, it said a vaccine had been given regulatory approval after less than two months of testing on humans.

But experts were quick to raise concerns about the speed of Russia's work, and a growing list of countries have expressed scepticism.

Scientists in Germany, France, Spain and the US have all urged caution.

"It seems our foreign colleagues are sensing the specific competitive advantages of the Russian drug and are trying to express opinions that... are absolutely groundless," Russia's Health Minister Mikhail Murashko told the Interfax news agency on Wednesday.

He added that the vaccine would be available soon.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53751017

if it is effective it will be required like the common flu vaccine to be continually updated and people will need to be tested on an ongoing basis to track how it evolves
 
Vociferous said:
Again, the real world doesn't allow conservatives to avoid leftist/Democrat opinion/agenda, whereas the ubiquity of leftist/Democrat bias in all media and entertainment does allow for a leftist bubble.
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That's a bit hyperbolic, isn't it? You really think that all media and entertainment has a leftist/Democrat bias?

Even if I assume you're just ranting about what you perceive as "too much" leftist/Democrat media for your liking, it seems to me that it's hardly difficult to find rightist/Republican media if that's want you prefer. There's at least one prominent US television network that serves that stuff up as a staple product. Surely you've come across it.

In politics, the left has no sense of humor. Hence the right being better at memes and the left desperately trying to dox memers and censor conservatives online.
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The reason that certain people on the far right like "memes" so much is that they think that memes give them plausible deniability as they dog-whistle racist and other bigoted messages to their followers. Moreover, internet memes are simplistic appeals to emotion rather than reasonable examinations of any issue, and the far right loves simplistic answers to complex questions. Most of those answers involve oppressing somebody else in one way or another.
 
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James R said:
That's a bit hyperbolic, isn't it? You really think that all media and entertainment has a leftist/Democrat bias?
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It's probably horses for courses.

A couple of times per day I flick through the cable 'news' channels and read the banner strips at the bottom to get a general idea of what they are on about.

I usually pair (Australian) ABC with (Australian) SKY, FOX with CNN and also scan BBC, Al Jazeera, TRT, CGTN, NHK and RT along with Bloomberg and CNBC.

While the first two pairs are almost polar opposites it's interesting to see what each channel ignores and what each pushes to get a better perspective on the spin of things. Laughable content seems to be a non trivial part of each side of the divide although some channels are more moderate than others.

Strangely enough CGTN and NHK seem to provide the most balanced coverage and the least spin.
 
LaurieAG said:
While the first two pairs are almost polar opposites
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In the US CNN and Fox share a common framing of most issues, and have for many years now.

Odd they would somehow become polar opposites elsewhere.

Maybe these guys who keep insisting that "the media" is leftist are watching TV in some other country, and assuming the US news is similar?
 
iceaura said:
In the US CNN and Fox share a common framing of most issues, and have for many years now.
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cnn was always the market leader in style
fox slowly changed to try and copy cnn
previously fox were total conspiracy channel style
meanwhile cnn have gradually moved toward a slightly more magazine style
the 2 have met in the middle
which is not surprising considering their population self identify as a 2 party ideological concept
i recall when fox tried to copy the massively popular morning tv style
what they realized is their audience lost interest as the day went on and felt it was old & tired and boring
so they changed it up a notch to try and entertain the different time zone moods
they really lost their way a few years back
and then youknowwho gave them free advertising for some reason
and they took that all the way to the bank focusing more on short attention span items and sudden quick changes

cnn seem to have a fairly good unique balance
anyone coming close to their style will be seen to be copying them and thus not 1st with news
and not reliable

currently the news industry in usa is still suffering from sell-out-mania
on the back of the media war between the usa and the uk

if i see it on cnn i know they believe it to be true
if i see it on fox i know they believe it might not be true at all(& they don't really care)
 
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53747852
Germany has recorded its biggest daily increase in coronavirus cases in more than three months as European countries struggle to curb a surge in infections.
More than 1,200 cases were reported in Germany in the past 24 hours. Officials said the rise was due, in part, to people returning from holidays.
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Meanwhile, France had 2,524 new cases in 24 hours, the highest daily rise since its lockdown was lifted in May.
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i expect this will be around 3 to maybe highest 5 times as many cases(of people whom have the virus keeping in mind they cant test everyone)
if they are lucky then only about twice as many

and likely to double every 2 days if not in lock down

if in lock down, it will initially double in the first week then die off in the second week assuming they are in lockdown(essential travel only)
otherwise
if not in lock down
it will nearly triple in roughly 10 days(if in normal social movement)

that is just a rough guess by looking at other rough figures
while the hospitalization may be a low statistic, the massive infectiousness of it over takes the low rate of injury and the vast fast spread hits all the medically vulnerable which after a few cycles simply swamps the hospitals.

 
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