Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Notice the change in specific wording ( bolded):

WHO SR 14-Feb-2020
src: https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...00214-sitrep-25-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=61dda7d_2
SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
  • Globally 49 053 laboratory-confirmed (2056 new)
  • China 48 548 laboratory-confirmed (1998 new) 1381 deaths (121 new) †
  • Outside of China 505 laboratory-confirmed (58 new) 24 countries 2 deaths (1 new)
WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
  • China Very High
  • Regional Level High
  • Global Level High
Currently John Hopkins Uni
Confirmed cases: 64461

At this stage the data is not making much sense. Perhaps in transition to a better way of reporting.
 
Quantum Quack said:
definition:
Aerosol:
An aerosol is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets, in air or another gas.​
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​
That's a reasonable definition.
Expectorant such spittle is not an aerosol...as it is unable to be suspended in the air and moves primarilly by it's own momentum.
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Like when you spit? Agreed, that is not an aerosol.

When you sneeze, you get particles that range from 20um (definitely an aerosol) to 1000um (definitely NOT an aerosol.) There are two peaks in the distribution of size - one at 72um (again, aerosol) and one at 386um (almost an aerosol, but a little too big to stay aloft for long.)

So the 20um particles stay in the air a long, long time - but dry out quickly. The 70um particles don't stay suspended as long, but they take longer to dry out. The 400um particles settle out in 10 seconds or so, but have a large amount of moisture in them (and can have a large amount of virus.)

And recent research has demonstrated that even normal breathing in someone infected with a virus can produce aerosols with a viral load.

So which is worst? If you are in the same room with them, the larger particles - they are in the air long enough to get to you and they have more viral material (and they last longer before drying out.) If you are just outside the room? The 20um particles, because they stay in the air much longer, and in very humid air can last long enough to get to you. On the plus side, they have less of a viral load.

And both can be a risk even if you don't touch anything.

https://royalsocietypublishing.org/doi/10.1098/rsif.2013.0560
 
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Quantum Quack said:
Australia has only 15 (?) confirmed cases.
If the virus was transmitted by way of air borne aerosols that number would be expected to be considerably higher by now. It is not. Current quarantine provisions are insufficient for airborne aerosols if I am not mistaken.
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There are 15 cases in Australia and 6 days ago 5 were reported to have recovered.

Why would you worry about airborne transmission if bats have mites like rats have fleas? Just Google bat mites
.Bat mites, also known as bat bugs, are very similar to bed bugs in that they also consume the blood of a host. ... They can transfer to other hosts; and when they move from a bat to the rest of the home, they usually survive by feeding off of the blood of humans or pets.
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Quantum Quack said:
The only bone of contention is semantic but important when discussing specific fields.

Do you agree with the following:
If not how so?
definition:
Aerosol:
An aerosol is a suspension of fine solid particles or liquid droplets, in air or another gas.[1] Aerosols can be natural or anthropogenic. Examples of natural aerosols are fog, dust, forest exudates and geyser steam. Examples of anthropogenic aerosols are haze, particulate air pollutants and smoke.[dubious – discuss][1] The liquid or solid particles have diameters typically <1 μm; larger particles with a significant settling speed make the mixture a suspension, but the distinction is not clear-cut. In general conversation, aerosol usually refers to an aerosol spray that delivers a consumer product from a can or similar container. Other technological applications of aerosols include dispersal of pesticides, medical treatment of respiratory illnesses, and combustion technology.[2] Diseases can also spread by means of small droplets in the breath, also called aerosols (or sometimes bioaerosols).[3]​

src: wiki
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Sure, that definition seems to be in line with everything that people have been saying on this thread, save that according to the source I quoted there are also "dry"(or nearly dry, in view of billvon's remarks about blood, mucus etc.) aerosols, too, to which the term "droplet" may or not be completely appropriate.

If you have a point to make, it would be helpful if you could make it explicit.
 
exchemist said:
Sure, that definition seems to be in line with everything that people have been saying on this thread, save that according to the source I quoted there are also "dry"(or nearly dry, in view of billvon's remarks about blood, mucus etc.) aerosols, too, to which the term "droplet" may or not be completely appropriate.

If you have a point to make, it would be helpful if you could make it explicit.
Click to expand...
lol
I made my point quite clear in post #61 page 4. It has only taken 5 pages to get back to it...
Perhaps you could have a read of it and then follow all the posts since....
It turns out that the only issue was in the definition of the word aerosol and the allowing of both aerosol airborne and direct contact transmission to potentially exist simultaneously.

btw I have learned so much about viral transmission over the last few days and I must thank you all for allowing me to do so.
 
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LaurieAG said:
Why would you worry about airborne transmission if bats have mites like rats have fleas? Just Google bat mites
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now that's an interesting post..
please explain?

There was a bizarre hypothesis floating around that the virus may only have been transmitted to those people who had adapted to eating bats and that the parasites that they gained from eating bats were actually what made them more receptive.
lol

so many ideas people come up with hey?
 
Quantum Quack said:
now that's an interesting post..
please explain?
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You are aware how the plague spread? And no it wasn't something in the air unless you are talking about the rare case of septicemic plague.

Google: plague spread by rat fleas
Bubonic plague is an infection of the lymphatic system, usually resulting from the bite of an infected flea, Xenopsylla cheopis (the rat flea). In very rare circumstances, as in the septicemic plague, the disease can be transmitted by direct contact with infected tissue or exposure to the cough of another human.
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Google: septicemic
Septicemic plague is one of the three main forms of plague. It is caused by Yersinia pestis, a gram-negative species of bacterium. Septicemic plague is a life-threatening infection of the blood, most commonly spread by bites from infected fleas.
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LaurieAG said:
You are aware how the plague spread? And no it wasn't something in the air unless you are talking about the rare case of septicemic plague.

Google: plague spread by rat fleas

Google: septicemic
Click to expand...
I am unsure how a bacterial transmission has much to do with this viral transmission, but perhaps you can explain it ?

60000 odd people didn't all eat Bats surely?
 
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WHO SR 15-Feb-2020

SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
  • Globally 51 857 laboratory-confirmed (1278 new)
  • China 51 174 laboratory-confirmed (1121 new) 1666 deaths (142 new) †
  • Outside of China 683 laboratory-confirmed (157 new) 25 countries 3 deaths (1 new)
WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
China Very High
Regional Level High
Global Level High
Growth factor of approx. 2.57%
Based on WHO data provided by Chinese Authorities. IMO Credibility : very low

workings:
51857-1278=50579
50579/1278=39.57
100/39.57= 2.57%
=======

Singapore:
Confirmed: 72 (new 5)
Deaths: 0
Growth factor of approx 7.46% per day.

workings:
72 - 5 = 67
67/5 = 13.4
100/13.4 = 7.46%

Indications that the viral growth is similar to that of mainland China (early stages) over the last 60+ days.
Concern summary:
As Singapore has a similar population residential density to Wuhan the possibility of Singapore replicating the early stage Wuhan transmission rates is disturbing.
========
Significant growth is also occurring in:
Japan
Confirmed: 53 ( new 12)
Deaths: 1
Growth factor of approx.29.32% per day ( possibly less due to anomalous data )

workings:
53 -12 = 41
41/12 = 3.41
100/3.41 = 29.32%

Personal Speculation:
If authorities in Japan and Singapore are unable to adequately and aggressively contain this viral transmission there is a very strong likely hood that what is happening in Wuhan will be replicated In Japan and Singapore over the next 60 days.
Apart from the human tragedy involved the economic ramifications will have significant consequences globally.

Data source: WHO
https://www.who.int/docs/default-so...0216-sitrep-27-covid-19.pdf?sfvrsn=78c0eb78_2
 
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Quantum Quack said:
I am unsure how a bacterial transmission has much to do with this viral transmission, but perhaps you can explain it ?

60000 odd people didn't all eat Bats surely?
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IMG_20200128_185455Flying Foxes Fruit Bats.jpg

One last try, when the fuzzy things (fruit bats) in the attached image fly overhead they rub their limbs up against their bodies and some of their bat mites fall off, you know like when plague fleas jump off rats, unlike the extremely rare bacterial transmission.
Bat mites, also known as bat bugs, are very similar to bed bugs in that they also consume the blood of a host. ... They can transfer to other hosts; and when they move from a bat to the rest of the home, they usually survive by feeding off of the blood of humans or pets.
Click to expand...
 
BTW, if anybody is really interested in Flu Statistics.

1/ The ratio of Recovered/Infected in the Chinese Coronavirus has gone from around 10% to 15% in the past 5 days. The latest figures from John Hopkins are 71,334 Infected, 1,775 dead and 11,135 Recovered.

2/ The Washington Post reported that in the 2017/18 US Flu season 80,000 people died and millions were infected, in the 2018/19 US Flu season 67,000 people died and around a million were infected and the current 2019/20 US Flu season reports show around 20,000 have died and the flu shots are a bad mix for the Ferret, Guinea pig and Cat strains being identified.
 
LaurieAG said:
View attachment 3095

One last try, when the fuzzy things (fruit bats) in the attached image fly overhead they rub their limbs up against their bodies and some of their bat mites fall off, you know like when plague fleas jump off rats, unlike the extremely rare bacterial transmission.
Click to expand...
Umm there is no evidence this spreads from bat mites.

Unless you are saying they are a vector for other diseases?

They have not been found to transmit any diseases.

LaurieAG said:
and the flu shots are a bad mix for the Ferret, Guinea pig and Cat strains being identified.
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What fresh level of hell is this?
 
LaurieAG said:
View attachment 3095

One last try, when the fuzzy things (fruit bats) in the attached image fly overhead they rub their limbs up against their bodies and some of their bat mites fall off, you know like when plague fleas jump off rats, unlike the extremely rare bacterial transmission.
Click to expand...
Out of curiosity I just checked the web for the average size of bacteria and found it to be between 0.2 to 2 microns.
There is no evidence of bacterial infection other than possibly secondary in this situation COVID-19.

It is important to note that bacterial infection gained after viral infection can be pretty lethal and may account for many of the deaths (secondary infections) but I really do not know...of any stats that are available.
 
WHO SR 16-Feb-2020

SITUATION IN NUMBERS total and new cases in last 24 hours
  • Globally 71 429 confirmed (2162 new)
  • China 70 635 confirmed (2051 new) 1772 deaths (106 new) †
  • Outside of China 794 confirmed (111 new) 25 countries 3 deaths
WHO RISK ASSESSMENT
  • China Very High
  • Regional Level High
  • Global Level High
The issue of viral transmission out side of China mainland.
The growth appears to be as high as 16.26%.

workings:
794-111=638
638/111=6.15
100/6.15 = 16.26%
 
Quantum Quack said:
Out of curiosity I just checked the web for the average size of bacteria and found it to be between 0.2 to 2 microns.
There is no evidence of bacterial infection other than possibly secondary in this situation COVID-19.

It is important to note that bacterial infection gained after viral infection can be pretty lethal and may account for many of the deaths (secondary infections) but I really do not know...of any stats that are available.
Click to expand...

The bacterial transmissions are extremely rare, it's the mites/fleas that are the common carrier.

Current figures from John Hopkins: Total Confirmed: 73,335, Total Deaths: 1873, Total Recovered: 12,745 and the current ratio of Recoveries/Infections is 17.38%, up a couple of percent since yesterday.

I notice even the BBC is using John Hopkins Uni figures because they are more up to date than the WHO's figures.
 
Bells said:
Umm there is no evidence this spreads from bat mites.

Unless you are saying they are a vector for other diseases?

They have not been found to transmit any diseases.

What fresh level of hell is this?
Click to expand...

Weren't you aware that the great plague or Black Death, another flu like infection, was spread by fleas from rats?

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Death

The bacterium Yersinia pestis, which results in several forms of plague (septicemic, pneumonic and, the most common, bubonic) is believed to have been the cause.[4] The Black Death was the first major European outbreak of plague and the second plague pandemic.[5] The plague created a number of religious, social and economic upheavals, with profound effects on the course of European history.
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The Black Death is thought to have originated in the dry plains of Central Asia or East Asia, where it travelled along the Silk Road, reaching Crimea by 1343.[6] From there, it was most likely carried by fleas living on the black rats that traveled on all merchant ships, spreading throughout the Mediterranean Basin and Europe.
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The Black Death is estimated to have killed 30% to 60% of Europe's population.[7] In total, the plague may have reduced the world population from an estimated 475 million to 350–375 million in the 14th century.[8] It took 200 years for the world population to recover to its previous level.[9] The plague recurred as outbreaks in Europe until the 19th century.
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https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bubonic_plague
 
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