Immigration Crisis or an Economic Opportunity?

Via the WSJ: Europe Faces Pension Predicament

[So? Let's take a good look at 40 years of Magic Thinking / "Democratic" Socialism.]

State-funded pensions are at the heart of Europe’s [Democratic] social-welfare model, insulating people from extreme poverty in old age. Most European countries have set aside almost nothing to pay these benefits, simply funding them each year out of tax revenue. Now, European countries face a demographic tsunami, in the form of a growing mismatch between low birthrates and high longevity, for which few are prepared.

Europe’s population of pensioners, already the largest in the world, continues to grow. Looking at Europeans 65 or older who aren’t working, there are 42 for every 100 workers, and this will rise to 65 per 100 by 2060, the European Union’s data agency says. By comparison, the U.S. has 24 nonworking people 65 or over per 100 workers, says the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which doesn’t have a projection for 2060.

hile the problem has long been building, it is gaining urgency as European countries’ debt troubles, growing out of the 2008 crisis, push governments to reassess their priorities. Greece, the worst off, has had to reduce the generosity of its pension system repeatedly. Though its situation is unusually dire, Greece isn’t the only European government being forced to acknowledge it has made pension promises it can ill afford.

“Western European governments are close to bankruptcy because of the pension time bomb,” said Roy Stockell, head of asset management at Ernst & Young. “We have so many baby boomers moving into retirement [with] the expectation that the government will provide.”

Even the U.S., with a Social Security trust fund of $2.8 trillion, faces criticism for promising more than it can afford. That is because the fund—which is mostly in the form of IOUs from the Treasury—is projected to fall short of the sums needed to cover all benefits in a dozen years or so, and run out in 2035. Europe’s situation is much worse.

The demographic squeeze could be eased by the influx of more than a million migrants in the past year. If many of them eventually join the working population, the result could be increased tax revenue to keep the pension model afloat. Before migrants are even given the right to work, however, they require housing, food, education and medical treatment. Their arrival will have effects on public finances that officials have only started to assess.

[A peek into the mind of a Social Democrat]:
You have to take care of people, of their dignity, not finances,” said Krzysztof Jurgiel, agriculture minister in the current Law & Justice Party government.

--o--

Of course, this is where the "Refugees" come in. See? The idea was they'd come and work and pay tax and that tax would be used to pay for the past generation (mainly The Baby's) retirement benefits. But, this is the thing: Why work? For many, only a sucker would work, when you can instead have 10 children and live off generation donations from "The State".

From Frontpage Mag: 80% of Turkish Muslim Settlers in Germany Live Off Welfare

Turks came to Germany as 'guest workers'. They were supposed to provide some "necessary cheap labor" and then leave. But it didn't work out that way. And the topic has obvious implications for our own Gang of 8's guest worker plan, which is going to lead to non-workers bankrupting the social welfare system even further. Three million Turks live already in Germany already, while 2.5 million of them have German nationality, and the majority of them are conservative Muslims.

Very few Turks in Germany have a regular job; about 20%. The other 80% live on the so-called Hartz IV (state social benefits). 70% of their children have no GCSE; they left school before they finished their basic education. According to the German state benefit system, every adult citizen who possesses the German nationality, unemployed and cannot find an appropriate job, is entitled to get monthly 482 € ($627). Additionally, parents get for each child under 18 years old, 200 € ($261), plus all their monthly expenditures in terms of rent, heating, power, health insurance, and public transport.

"Amazingly enough some Turks who live on the generous state benefits can afford to buy a house or an apartment and drive luxurious cars like Mercedes or BMW." Says Klaus, a SlumLord whose tenants are a case in point.


--o--
Anyway, if we're lucky, B.Sanders will usher in our own European Utopia right here in the U.S.S.A. Won't that be nice? Free University. Free Healthcare. Free Free Free and a bit more Free :D

Hope and Change cometh!
 
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Oh well, history is replete with examples of one tribe of humans, displacing another - one which simply lacks the will or means to fight for it's survival and subsequently dies out. Extinction is possibly the most natural of all natural phenomena.


In a multicultural society there appears to be only one peaceful solution: A complete end to the Welfare State.
 
Donald Trump reads a bedtime story about a naive, fat, old woman - and a pretty Snake :D
(subtitled)

 

Interactive map showing the hundreds of rapes linked here

Incidentally, I was chatting with a German immigrant the other day. I thought it was quite funny. Perhaps it was cogitative bias on my part, but he pretty much aligned with everything I keep saying about Europe (Sweden and Germany in particular). Essentially, Europeans are too busy navel gazing to notice their societies are collapsing and to busy paying for all their free shit to have children of their own. Not that the EU will disappear, they'll just end up looking like the ghettoized cities of America with an Islamic flavor, like London I suppose. Not the worse thing in the world, though in time, when they run out of other people's stuff to hand out, they do tend to culminate in someone like Trump (well, actually someone much much worse than Trump).

But whatever, plenty of time to normalize.

So? The German guy I was chatting with. Of course he's a highly paid engineer. Has no plans to marry or ever raise children. Fully supports free University and free Healthcare. And in his opinion the real reason why the USA is such a mess (I suppose he means our ghettos) is because we don't have free schooling and free healthcare. If we did, then we'd be doing great - like Germany is (LOL). Oh, and he was very critical of our refusal to take in refugees. If Germany can take in 1 million + (and should take in more), then America should take in at least 5 million + (he also thought Australia should at least take in 1 million because there's plenty of land in AU). And, right on cue, Americans were somewhat white racist patriarchs for not doing so. Oh, not everyone (a nod to me, as my family isn't white), but everything is racist in the West. Including in Germany, we need to keep that in mind. Sort of build into the system.

LOL

Anyway, I agreed with some of what he said. Yes, Germany should take in 1 million. Maybe 2 or more. He looked shocked. What? Someone agreeing with him?!? Of course, by 2025 statistically the number of Germans should begin its long slow decline as they're replaced by non "Ethnic" Germans. Apparently he didn't know that, so he'll look up the numbers. I told him, why does it matter? Multiculturalism remember? Oh, and he also didn't know "multicultural" means not being forced to speak German. And having the freedom to have the call to prayer broadcast. Oh he said? No, everyone must become German.

LOL

No, no one has to speak German.
That's German culture.
That's not multicultural.
I told him he'd have to accept different cultures side by side. He didn't seem to like that idea. He also seemed to think people who cannot read and write in their mother tongue, are somehow going to manage to read and write in German. You know, because they're going knuckle down and study hard to get the most out of this great opportunity.
Ha! As if that's going to happen. Even highly stable, highly educated people cannot learn fluent German. As if someone who can't even read in their own language is going to somehow learn to read German. I mean, what nonsense is that? He also didn't realize it will be legal for immigrants (soon good German Citizens) to bring their families - you know, like when you marry your partner, they also get to live in Germany (which is why by 2025, the demographics will shift, maybe even a few years earlier). No, in his world everyone magically becomes German, works hard, together. Haha! No one steals or lies. No one holds on to their "old" culture and magically joins this 'new' culture of the magical future.

This is why people who are mathematically inclined, hate empiricism - IMO. Maybe I'm painting his argument too liberally. But, the main point is, he really really really believes everyone is going to integrate, work hard, and become honest Germans. You know, like him. He speaks fluent English, works hard, does his part. That what immigrants do.

As if there's no differences in people, anyone can become an Engineer - just like him. Because we're all the same. Culture, genetics, child-rearing, it all melts away and then, like magic, there's this "new" culture. And as an added bonus, Germany has the labor needed to keep their high-tech industries rolling forward and also to pay for all the free stuff Germans like him will need, because they won't have a family of their own to look after them in old age (okay, he didn't say this last part, but come on).


I basically said, good. I like that Germany is taking in so many refugees. You can serve as what not to do so that other countries (namely Japan) doesn't make the same mistakes.

Oh, and our Government run ghettos do have free schools - but they're not like German schools, because we're not Germans. And 1 in 5 graduates cannot read and write. That seemed to shock him. Oh, and the single mothers living in said Ghettos get free healthcare, so do their children. 50 years of Welfare certainly has not changed these Welfare Protects into little efficient German hamlets.

No, what's going to happen in the real world IMO, is Germany will not afford it's free Universities or free Healthcare, and once you're multicultural, you'll look just like the USA - for the same reasons, and you'll have the same systems in place, for the same reasons. No more free University. No more free healthcare. But, that's not for 40 - 50 years, so no need to worry about it now. It's not like you're going to have children, and I'm sure a single highly paid engineer can afford a good private hospital once you retire and reach the end of your days. And, maybe he's right or maybe I am. Let's see how the future unfolds.



--o--
An aside: get this, in Japan a 6 year old can walk down the street, get on a train, go into the city, and attend school. All without parental supervision - with next to no fear of being raped. That's the nice thing about having a single culture of like-minded honest people. It also means schools run efficiently and private hospitals are cheap (as an example, a delivery in a private hospital in Japan was 5300 - including 1 month stay and meals) whereas private delivery itself was 12,500 in 'free' Australia. But, you can just go into a hospital in AU and deliver for free. I wouldn't imagine you'd get a month stay as a precaution. No, if it wasn't life threatening, you'd be sent home, and you'd hope for the best. You'd probably also be sent a bill for other consumables. Depending on the treatment and if you demanded some tests out of peace of mind.

Yay, free :)

Oh yes, I forgot the navel gazing part. So, what he was really interested in was this theory we are all computer simulations. Which, when we make AI (one of the areas he works in) will be further proof that worlds within worlds are statistically more likely to mean we live in one.
LOL
Yes, I agree. It probably is true. THAT is really really important right now too.



Bye Bye 'old' Germany. Hello 'new' culture, whatever that should mean.
 
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Bye Bye 'old' Germany. Hello 'new' culture, whatever that should mean.
Yes, well. It seems perfectly acceptable for anyone other than western nations to attempt to preserve their own cultures, doesn't it. "whatever that should mean", indeed.
Back in the old days, it was normal for people to fight for whatever they believed in. These days, the preferable option is to simply shift your mistakes and cultural conflict to a more neutral territory where one might make a quick buck... before it all begins again in the new land.
 
michael said:
I basically said, good. I like that Germany is taking in so many refugees. You can serve as what not to do so that other countries (namely Japan) doesn't make the same mistakes.

Oh, and our Government run ghettos do have free schools - but they're not like German schools, because we're not Germans. And 1 in 5 graduates cannot read and write. That seemed to shock him. Oh, and the single mothers living in said Ghettos get free healthcare, so do their children.
In Wingnut World, the ghettoes of America have been enjoying the opportunity of German level schooling and healthcare for fifty years. For free.

And their "culture" is the reason their schools don't work, they are in bad health, and they have not become educated, responsible, solid citizens.

What frigging planet does this nonsense come from?
 
In Wingnut World, the ghettoes of America have been enjoying the opportunity of German level schooling and healthcare for fifty years. For free.

And their "culture" is the reason their schools don't work, they are in bad health, and they have not become educated, responsible, solid citizens.

What frigging planet does this nonsense come from?
Well, then, do you have a preference for one culture over another?
 
retribution said:
Well, then, do you have a preference for one culture over another?
Of course. I have an entire hierarchy of such preferences, broken down by category of course - and I believe (it's part of my culture to believe) that aspects of cultures can be moved, swapped around, incorporated, to some degree separately from the rest of the culture in which they originated. I think the US could, for example, incorporate several Finnish cultural traditions in the education of the young, without adopting Finnish methods of food preservation or societal handling of alcohol consumption.

From this perspective, of course, the ghettoes of America are not outposts of some different, non-American culture - the failures of American culture are not brought about by its being imposed upon from outside.

Why do you ask?
 
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For Germany immigration is the only way to keep the cities populated and economy growing:
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-32929962 said:
A study says Germany's birth rate has slumped to the lowest in the world, ... Germany has dropped below Japan to have not just the lowest birth rate across Europe but also globally, according to the report by Germany-based analysts. Its authors warned of the effects of a shrinking working-age population.

In Germany, an average of 8.2 children were born per 1,000 inhabitants over the past five years, according to the study by German auditing firm BDO with the Hamburg Institute of International Economics (HWWI). It said Japan saw 8.4 children born per 1,000 inhabitants over the same time period.
Hungary will too late learn how stupid its anti-immigration fence was - will not have young workers enough to pay the pensions of the old.

Hungary's Total Fertility (children born / woman) is slightly worse than Germany's (1.42 vs 1.43) data from: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=31
 
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http://www.csmonitor.com/World/Europe/2016/0112/Some-small-German-towns-want-to-host-more-refugees.-So-why-can-t-they said:
Situated at the foot of the Harz Mountains in northern Germany, the town of Goslar thrills tourists with its winding cobblestone streets and thatched timber homes. But under the surface of its picture-book charm lies a demographic time bomb. Goslar’s population of 50,000 is dwindling by about 2,000 people a year as young people leave for better opportunities in cities. Faced with an uncertain future, Mayor Oliver Junk contends that the way to revitalize the town is to accept more refugees. "The refugees that come can profit our country," Mr. Junk says. "They are not a burden, but rather an opportunity." Refugees who are granted asylum are randomly relocated through an electronic system called “EASY” that does not give states, cities, or towns a say. That means large, wealthy cities like Munich took 15,000 of Germany’s 1 million refugees in 2015 while Goslar was entitled only to 400.
 
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billy said:
For Germany immigration is the only way to keep the cities populated and economy growing:
The hypothetical manner of achieving economic growth with a stable, even aging, population, is increasing productivity. Whether that will work or not, in the Western democracies, remains to be seen - but it's not certain or safe to assert its impossibility, surely.
 
Immigration crisis or economic opportunity? I'd say both, since more often than not, a crisis is what directly gives way to opportunity.
 
For Germany immigration is the only way to keep the cities populated and economy growing:Hungary will too late learn how stupid its anti-immigration fence was - will not have young workers enough to pay the pensions of the old.

Hungary's Total Fertility (children born / woman) is slightly worse than Germany's (1.42 vs 1.43) data from: http://www.indexmundi.com/g/r.aspx?v=31
And this is the reason why I thank the Gods Sweden and Germany are taking in millions of refugees. As I said earlier, history is littered with examples of one tribe invading another, out competing it, out populating it, and eventually eliminating it culturally. A good example would be modern day America, Mexico, Egypt and Constantinople, oh, I mean Istanbul.

As for providing Germans and Swedes with their cherished pensions and benefits in old age, I'd take a good look at how well off the old are in the countries these people are fleeing. That's Europe's future. That's how the old will be treated. IMO at least. But, we'll see. Either way, what a wonderful example EU will be setting for other countries contemplating similar idiocracy/oppertunity.

80% of Turkish Muslim Settlers in Germany Live Off Welfare.

Anyway, good luck EU, let's see how things unfold in your future Socialist Paradise.


It should be noted, Hungary doesn't have an anti-immigration fence, they have a boarder. Anyone from EU or America or Japan, or many other countries with treaties can, with relative ease, enter Hungry and it wouldn't be that hard to get a permanent resident visa assuming one actually provided their society with something of value. But no, you can't just walk into the country and start mooching off it's welfare system. Go to Germany or Sweden if you want to do that.


It should also be noted, while Japan doesn't have a birth rate as low as Germany, they do have an extremely low birthrate and are expected to stabilize at around 80 million (down from 120 million). Life can be hard work in Japan, most immigrants leave. There's no cultural tolerance in Japan either, either become Japanese or go live somewhere else. The cities in Japan are so safe, it's not unusual to let 6 and 7 year olds walk to the train station, take a train into the city, alone, which may be a 40 minute ride with multiple stops and exchanges, get off and walk to their designation, an international school for example. Try that in the wonderful multicultureal USA or soon to be Sweden or Germany. Good luck with that. Hell, girls are being told not to wear skirts and to dress modest - and this is only the beginning. Just wait until the exstended family is married into Germany and Sweden. See Birmingham for your future Munich. Or visit the slums that encase Paris. Anyway, Japanese live a pretty decent life in terms of housing affordability, technological access, medicine, food, and etc.... their standard of living is going UP not down. Up. Education is some of the best. The country is ultra safe. Food and drink is good. Thank the Gods that they have such a low immigration rate.
 
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Immigration crisis or economic opportunity? I'd say both, since more often than not, a crisis is what directly gives way to opportunity.
I do agree that a crisis, may give way to opportunity. Not always. Not for those Germans who have been raped, which is occurring almost daily. A child rape survivor isn't really giving way to opportunity in any manner proportional to the price paid. Will someone in the medical field have more work? Maybe. A governmental institution given access to more resources? Possibly, at the expense of a cut from elsewhere. Not the sort of opportunity that is beneficial IMO. As a matter of fact, I cannot think of any opportunities that will be proportionally a net win-win for most Germans or Swedes. Maybe some new foods that are slightly more authentic? Okay, sure, although this is more of a skilled migrant entry category. High skills? Well, again, legal entry is the means of entry for Germany to gain access to people with those skills.

For example, most refugees cannot read or write (in any language), they will compete against low skilled Germans for low skilled employment. Reducing the wage, a win for the employer, and the refugee - not for the German who will miss out on getting a foot on the ladder. There is evidence that this is happening in Sweden.


There's nothing wrong with high skilled migration, but this isn't that. And that is what Germany needs. This may actually act to deter high skilled migrants who may have otherwise come to Germany. Many won't want to live in a multicultureal Germany. If they want a dangerous multicultreal society, best to just move to the USA. More opportunity, possibly better living quarter (house and land) and better pay.
 
michael said:
As I said earlier, history is littered with examples of one tribe invading another, out competing it, out populating it, and eventually eliminating it culturally. A good example would be modern day America, Mexico, Egypt and Constantinople, oh, I mean Istanbul.
That's not what happened in Mexico, or America. I don't know about Egypt or Turkey.
 
That's not what happened in Mexico, or America. I don't know about Egypt or Turkey.
Tell that to the Native Americans, or what's left of them and their culture. Speaking of which, I was speaking to an Anthropologist (years ago) about a Native American language she had been studying. She was the last person in the world to have a recording of their language. It had simply died out (or so she told me). Anyway, this repugnant b*tch was approached by the descendants of this tribe, who wanted access to the language. She essentially told them no. It was 'natural' that some languages die out. So, the language was never shared with them. Lucky for her, she works at a Public University, so she can tell the public to piss off and they can do just that. Your taxes will pay for her fat 6 plus benefits.

Anyway, who knows maybe one day, some future Anthropologist may say the same about German? Assuming the demographics reach their mathematical conclusion, it seems reasonable to hypothesize such an occurrence.

In 4 years, 2020, Ethnic German males ages 20 - 30, will be a minority of males in said age group in Germany. These are the ones having the kids (or should be). Which is okay, so long as the Baby's get their State-promised benefits. See, Progressive Socialism is as economically sound as Magic Thinking, thus one generation get's it all (and then some) while the next 5 pay. Because they're paying out the nose, responsible Germans aren't having enough kids. Thus, the need for population replacement.

Done and Done.

Ask the Native Americans how it all works out.
 
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... For example, most refugees cannot read or write (in any language), ...
I don't believe that. Give source please.
... Hungary doesn't have an anti-immigration fence, they have a boarder. Anyone from EU or America or Japan, or many other countries with treaties can, with relative ease, enter Hungry ...
Hungary certainly does have an anti-immigration fence. They were the first to build one. It is designed to control who can enter, not block all immigration.


Yes there has been some violence, especially against women. The mid eastern immigrant males are not accustomed to seeing pretty girls walking alone at night. They assume bad things about them.

It will take at least a decade before they adopt the German culture, especially towards women. They will be a burden on the social welfare system for a few years. They are not expected to be an immediate benefit to the German economy. What they will do is prevent Germany from becoming weak with rapidly declining population. I. e. short term costs, for much greater long term benefits - the mark of a wise government.

The current relocation plan, which ignores the desires of small towns with declining population, like Goslar Germany,* for more immigrates, is dumb. Large urban center tend to be inhuman, but they do not. These small towns, already losing about 4% of their population annually so want more immigrants and can better help them become new Germans than the impersonal large urban cities.

* See quote of post 151.

SUMMARY: It is in the long term self interest to take in immigrants. Plus it is the human thing to do but the US, more like Hungary today, did not do that:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/MS_St._Louis said:
The MS St. Louis was a German ocean liner most notable for a single voyage in 1939, in which its captain, Gustav Schröder, tried to find homes for 908 Jewish refugees from Germany. After they were denied entry to Cuba, Canada, and the United States, the refugees were finally accepted in various European countries, and historians have estimated that approximately a quarter of them died in death camps during World War II. The event was the subject of a 1974 book, Voyage of the Damned, by Gordon Thomas and Max Morgan-Witts.
 
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Immigrants tend to include the most talented and ambitious people as it takes vision and courage to leave one's homeland. Here is a sample who benefited the US:

Albert Einstein: Greatest physicist of the twentieth century. Born in Ulm, Germany,
Ieoh Ming Pei: One of America’s most famous architects, Ieoh Ming Pei was born in Canton in China
Madeleine Albright: Our former Secretary of State, Madeleine Albright was born in Czechoslovakia
John Muir: This world-famous naturalist was born in Dunbar, Scotland
Joseph Pulitzer: This son of a Jewish father and Catholic mother was born in Hungary
Felix Frankfurter: This Supreme Court member was born in Vienna, Austria
Martina Navratilova World-class athlete was born in Revnice, near Prague, Czechoslovakia
Subranhmanyan Chandrasekhar:* Nobel laureate for Physics was born in Lahore, India
Irving Berlin: Born in Russia in 1888
Edward M. Bannister: American landscape painter, was born in New Brunswick, Canada of West Indian heritage.
and many more listed here: https://immigrationupdate.wordpress.com/famous-american-immigrants/

* During the 1940s, Chandrasekhar drove 100 miles from Yerkes Observatory in Williams Bay, Wisconsin to Chicago for many weeks to teach a class of only two students. Some wondered why he bothered. Ten years later, his entire class won the Nobel Prize in Physics. Many consider him Einstein's equal.
 
Two-Thirds of Migrants Functionally Illiterate

Die Zeit featured a long interview with Ludger Wößmann, an educational economist, about the level of education of current migrants. The picture he painted was sobering (g):

  • Something like 2/3 of current migrants are functionally illiterate. According to the latest international studies, only 16% of German students cannot demonstrate 'basic competence' in reading and writing according to OECD standards. In Syria, 65% cannot do this, and in Albania, 59% cannot.
  • This means that something like 2/3 of Syrians can read and write their own language at only a rudimentary level, and can complete only the simplest counting tasks. They will be unable to understand even basic German-language instruction for years. Syrian schoolchildren in the eighth grade are, on average, five school years behind their German counterparts.
  • Given their low education and skill level, they will be unable to complete a traditional three-year German apprenticeship with its intensive theoretical component. This helps explain why 70% of Syrian, Iraqi, and Afghan migrants who began an apprenticeship in Bavaria broke it off within two years.
  • Current sources indicate that only 10% of migrants have the equivalent of a college degree. Two-thirds have no formal occupational training at all. They can be compared with the 14% of Germans who have no formal qualifications. The unemployment rate among this group is 20%, despite the booming economy and their ability to speak German.
His conclusion is that the idea that the current wave of uneducated migrants will meet Germany's need for specialized workers is 'unrealistic'. Current migrants cannot be compared with previous immigrants who generally had much higher levels of education and qualification. The children of current migrants might one day qualify for jobs, but that will take decades and require significant investment in integration and special education.


--o--
Of course, because Germany doesn't have a fence, it's impossible to actually know what the number of functional illiterates, illiterates, literates and poets.
 
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