Military Events in Syria and Iraq thread #3

[Schmelzer]

Hurray, the women and children are back to completely starving again! Let's hope Putin found out in time before he made any concessions to Mr. Horseface and his Yankee friends.

Don't worry, the US whines that Russia came back to some points which the US thought have been already solved. So, no need to be afraid of a stupid compromise. The expected hysteria I mentioned in #77 has already started. The German foreign relations secretary whines in http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-09/frank-walter-steinmeier-russland-syrien-waffenruhe and Merkel is assumed to talk with Putin about the poor women and children too.

All this is predictable propaganda. Because there is only one reason the humanitarian crisis is not solved - the behavior of the terrorists. The offers to send humanitarian goods - under control of the Syrian governement, so that no weapons and ammunition can be send - exists. So, dear Western politicians, instead of making propaganda, tell your terrorists (the child head cutters you pay) to accept the offers.

 

[CptBork]

Don't worry, the US whines that Russia came back to some points which the US thought have been already solved. So, no need to be afraid of a stupid compromise. The expected hysteria I mentioned in #77 has already started. The German foreign relations secretary whines in http://www.zeit.de/politik/ausland/2016-09/frank-walter-steinmeier-russland-syrien-waffenruhe and Merkel is assumed to talk with Putin about the poor women and children too.

Yes, those silly whiny terrorist children. I wish they'd shut up and stop crying on Yankee Facebook, their noise make it impossible for me to hear greatness of Mother Russia.

All this is predictable propaganda. Because there is only one reason the humanitarian crisis is not solved - the behavior of the terrorists. The offers to send humanitarian goods - under control of the Syrian governement, so that no weapons and ammunition can be send - exists. So, dear Western politicians, instead of making propaganda, tell your terrorists (the child head cutters you pay) to accept the offers.

I do not understand why is problem? All they must do is evacuate all strategic position and then we go send precious aid to terrorists. We do not kill civilians or disappearing them, they go to Gulag in Siberia and don't talk to west anymore because they see how superior is life there, they never want terrorist journalists to come steal them away.

 

[Yazata]

It appears that Schmelzer was right and the Syrian government has indeed retaken all of the military schools where fighting was occurring. Now the government is trying to strengthen its positions to prevent them from being overrun a second time.

The Turks have taken all remaining ISIS controlled points on the Syrian-Turkish border and appear to be expanding southward.

http://www.edmaps.com/html/northern_syria_september_5_201.html

As for starving 'women and children' in east Aleppo, remember that government-controlled west Aleppo is effectively cut off from supply too, if the routes in and out are unreliable. If both sides are sufficiently motivated, it should be possible to put in place an arrangement to get food and medical supplies in and out of both areas through their opponents' lines, while making sure arms and military equipment aren't included in the shipments. Perhaps the UN or somebody could oversee it.

The Syrian government has allowed combatants in other surrounded enclaves to partially-surrender and leave with their families and with their small arms in bus convoys to other rebel-controlled areas. So a similar arrangement could perhaps be made in east Aleppo, allowing the several thousand rebel fighters and their families to leave for Idlib or someplace like that. Of course that would mean basically surrendering their hold on Aleppo, and they certainly don't want to do that.

I think that it's a little foolish to have Obama and Putin negotiating a cease-fire in China. Both of these men are smug, arrogant and overly self-assured and I expect that they can't stand each other psychologically. Obama isn't going to budge off his 'Assad-goes/support the rebels' position, and Putin isn't going to abandon his ally and allow Syria to become another mideast power vacuum just to please Obama. So the whole thing is likely to move backwards.

 

[CptBork]

As for starving 'women and children' in east Aleppo, remember that government-controlled west Aleppo is effectively cut off from supply too, if the routes in and out are unreliable. If both sides are sufficiently motivated, it should be possible to put in place an arrangement to get food and medical supplies in and out of both areas through their opponents' lines, while making sure arms and military equipment aren't included in the shipments. Perhaps the UN or somebody could oversee it.

Firstly, comparing the rebels' partial, short-term siege on Western Aleppo to the sieges imposed and maintained for years and months by Putin and his regional puppets, is like comparing the eating of one dead Assad rapist's heart by a single rebel to the deliberate Sarin gassing of thousands of civilians. Secondly, the Assad regime wanted an arrangement that would allow his forces to continue receiving supplies without the rebels enjoying similar privileges, which would ultimately force them into a suicidal surrender. Thirdly, it's completely illegal under international law to deliberately target and prohibit aid to civilians on the grounds that they voted for the wrong guy and continue to oppose him through non-violent means. I guess you won't mind if Israel or US carpet bombs/gases/nukes whatever civilian populations might oppose them in the next conflict then, along with their schools and hospitals, since those civilians are likely to share their food and beds with the terrorists who start the next war.

The Syrian government has allowed combatants in other surrounded enclaves to partially-surrender and leave with their families and with their small arms in bus convoys to other rebel-controlled areas. So a similar arrangement could perhaps be made in east Aleppo, allowing the several thousand rebel fighters and their families to leave for Idlib or someplace like that. Of course that would mean basically surrendering their hold on Aleppo, and they certainly don't want to do that.

All credible international news reports indicate that those civilians who remain in Eastern Aleppo chose to do so because they know they will never be allowed to return to their homes once they leave, and that they have a good chance of being deliberately butchered by Assad's forces on the way out, as has happened with countless other civilians who chose to test their mercy. Forcing or coercing the civilians of Eastern Aleppo to leave their homes constitutes a war crime and ethnic cleansing under international law, and I assume we want those international laws to apply to all parties now and in the future rather than serving as friendly suggestions.

 

[iceaura]

I think that it's a little foolish to have Obama and Putin negotiating a cease-fire in China. Both of these men are smug, arrogant and overly self-assured and I expect that they can't stand each other psychologically.

Neither one of those guys is smug, or stupid enough to be self-assured in such a negotiation.

Obama isn't going to budge off his 'Assad-goes/support the rebels' position, and Putin isn't going to abandon his ally and allow Syria to become another mideast power vacuum just to please Obama.

American "conservatives" sure do like them some Putin. He's the new W - the competent one. He even has the Dad's CIA/KGB background to brace the swagger with lethal threat.

And of course he can't stand somebody like Obama, psychologically - you can tell, because real white men can't stand Obama "psychologically".

Meanwhile: We've come a long way from the "horrible dictator who gasses his own people and supports terrorism, he has to go, send in the Marines" yikkity to the "strong leader, we can't risk a power vacuum, what happens if the Muslim populace votes in somebody even worse" yakkity.

 

[CptBork]

Neither one of those guys is smug, or stupid enough to be self-assured in such a negotiation.

Why would you say that? For Russia as a whole, not just Putin, this new Cold War is all about ego from start to finish. Russia feels that having twice as much territory as the world's next largest country isn't enough; they need to prove that they're still relevant on the world stage (or that they ever would have been without constantly robbing their neighbours blind), and their chosen means of doing so is by demonstrating that they can bring utter destruction to former allies who choose to leave the tent.

American "conservatives" sure do like them some Putin. He's the new W - the competent one. He even has the Dad's CIA/KGB background to brace the swagger with lethal threat.

It's not just conservatives. There's also the "we murdered people in Iraq, so we have no right to stop someone else from murdering ten times more" crowd amongst the left.

And of course he can't stand somebody like Obama, psychologically - you can tell, because real white men can't stand Obama "psychologically".

According to Trump based on his own conversations with Putin, the latter thinks Obama's rightful place is in the fields picking cotton for his shirts, not presiding over a gloriously unparalleled superpower whose ingenuity, productivity and prosperity make Mother Russia and its centuries of history look like a dilapidated crack den populated by inbred rapist Rus-tards.

Meanwhile: We've come a long way from the "horrible dictator who gasses his own people and supports terrorism, he has to go, send in the Marines" yikkity to the "strong leader, we can't risk a power vacuum, what happens if the Muslim populace votes in somebody even worse" yakkity.

When are we going to get to the "stop buying shit from dictators who plan to use the profits to make war on you and your friends" bit? Iran and Russia should be knee deep in economic and political sanctions by now, with more being slapped on for every day that they continue to make a mess of Syria and empower ISIS to do its thing in the resulting vacuum, and even more still if Iran thinks of reopening its nuclear gambit. Russians shouldn't even be able to access western computers via the internet, let alone trade stocks in New York or draw western investment back the other way, nor should anyone else who isn't completely gung ho with such measures.

 

[Schmelzer]

When are we going to get to the "stop buying shit from dictators who plan to use the profits to make war on you and your friends" bit? Iran and Russia should be knee deep in economic and political sanctions by now, with more being slapped on for every day that they continue to make a mess of Syria ... Russians shouldn't even be able to access western computers via the internet, let alone trade stocks in New York or draw western investment back the other way, nor should anyone else who isn't completely gung ho with such measures.

Good idea. Do it. Sanction Russia and Iran completely, and don't forget to sanction completely all states who do not follow. Starting with China. Don't forget Egypt (a great buyer of Russian wheat), and stop using Suez. And Germany, which will not stop buying Russian gas. And don't forget to sanction similarly all those who do not follow these sanctions too. Or, to make it easier, simply stop any foreign trade between US and anybody else.

By the way, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/aleppo-7-corridors-aid-delivery-one-militants-exit-russian-dm/ writes about Aleppo “Each day water, food and essentials are delivered to local residents through seven special corridors”. So, the only problem is with the terrorist no longer getting weapons and ammunition. Or terrorists preventing civilians from using these possibilities.

 

[sculptor]

It seems that the primary reason that Turkey invaded Syria was not to remove their long term trading partners isil/isis/daesh from the Turkish border, but rather to drive a wedge between the eastern and western Kurds.
Accurate?

 

[Yazata]

It seems that the primary reason that Turkey invaded Syria was not to remove their long term trading partners isil/isis/daesh from the Turkish border, but rather to drive a wedge between the eastern and western Kurds.
Accurate?

Yes. I don't agree with the cartoon though.

But I do agree that Turkey is mainly concerned about the Syrian Kurds, who have political and organizational ties with the Turkish-Kurdish PKK, which has been fighting a low level national liberation insurgency against Turkish rule by Ankara. (That insurgency has included terrorist-style attacks on Turkish civilians.) Kurds are as much as 25% of Turkey's population and are the majority in many of Turkey's eastern provinces. Control of these Kurds is the last vestige of the old Turkish empire and Ankara is determined not to permit the independence of eastern Turkey. Turkey is also determined to keep the Syrian Kurds from establishing an independent or semi-independent state in northern Syria near the Turkish border, fearing that it will serve as a base area and inspiration for their own Kurds' rebellion. They say that their operation against the Syrian Kurds and the SDF is an 'anti-terrorist' operation.

It's a disaster for the US anti-ISIS strategy, since Washington has been quietly supporting the SDF with air-strikes and advisors, in hopes of their serving as America's 'boots on the ground' in attacking Raqqah and the Syrian ISIS strong points. To have Turkey (an important if increasingly problematic NATO ally) fighting our surrogates screws everything up.

ISIS/Daesh doesn't worry the Turks nearly as much, since while ISIS' Islamic fanaticism is excessive, they are seemingly fighting for Sunni Islam against the Shi'ites. And Turkey has traditionally (since the Ottoman days) seen itself as the leader of Sunni Islam. They only abolished their own 'Caliphate' and renounced their claim to leadership of Sunni Islam after WWI. Erdogan is trying to end Atiturk-style Western secularism and revive Turkey's historical Ottoman role.

So Daesh serves the valuable (to Turkish eyes) purpose of standing in the way of Shi'ite domination of the entire fertile cresent. (Iran in the east, the ruling Iraqi Shi'ites in Mesopotamia and Bashir Assad's Alawites (a small and very peculiar Shi'ite offshoot sect) in the western Levant.)

Wahabist Saudi Arabia also sees itself as the rightful leader of the Sunnis (it controls Mecca and Medina) and basically agrees with Turkey about opposing the Shi'ites. Iran is its big Persian Gulf rival and it's why they are fighting the Shi'ite Houthis in Yemen.

 

[Schmelzer]

It seems that the primary reason that Turkey invaded Syria was not to remove their long term trading partners isil/isis/daesh from the Turkish border, but rather to drive a wedge between the eastern and western Kurds.
Accurate?

I think so. To remove them from the border in itself makes not that much sense. But to prevent the Kurds from taking the whole region and to connect is very important for Erdogan. What could he do to prevent this? If he does nothing, the Kurds can fight ISIS and take the whole region. And to defend ISIS openly is not really an option, not even for their founders from US and Saudi-Arabia, even less for Erdogan, especially now. So all he can do is to fight ISIS in this region himself, with the own army or with his terrorist troops.

For Putin, this was a reasonable proposal: He takes his own terrorists out of Syria and puts them on this front to fight ISIS or Kurds (after Hasaka, the Kurds are no longer friends for Syria/Russia) and gets the agreement for openly going on Syrian territory. Now they can fight as the Kurds, as ISIS, and Assad is, if not really happy, not very angry about this. Once they take the whole strip, they can fight the Kurds if those attack to take the corridor.

There is information around that many Aleppo terrorists have left Aleppo to go (through Turkey) to the new front, because they pay more there. So, the two fronts may be related. Those paid by the Turks go to the North, what remains in South Aleppo is paid by US/Saudi and so on.

 

[sculptor]

who started the Hasakah battle?

 

[Schmelzer]

As far as I know, this was started by some local Kurdish police force, and mainly directed against the local arab forces. Initially nothing new, there have been similar conflicts before, and all this usually has been settled, because nobody was interested in extending such conflicts. But this time YPD had supported this, and then everything was going dirty, with the US forbidding the Syrian airforce to fly over their own territory as the culmination. Stupid from Kurdish side, I think. They have got Hasaka. Are they happy now? I don't think so.

 

[Schmelzer]

BTW a map from a Russian source, the author named it "optimistic" himself. So it shows some progress which is not completely confirmed.

 

[CptBork]

BTW a map from a Russian source, the author named it "optimistic" himself. So it shows some progress which is not completely confirmed.

*Phew*, thank goodness! For a while there, I was worried some corn might get through to the east and feed a whole bumper crop of little baby jihadis!

 

[Schmelzer]

doubled

 

[Schmelzer]

The little babies can get corn, don't worry, if the terrorists do not prevent them from taking it from evil kafir sources. Be honest, you care about your beloved terrorists not getting weapons and ammunition.

 

[CptBork]

Good idea. Do it. Sanction Russia and Iran completely, and don't forget to sanction completely all states who do not follow. Starting with China. Don't forget Egypt (a great buyer of Russian wheat), and stop using Suez. And Germany, which will not stop buying Russian gas. And don't forget to sanction similarly all those who do not follow these sanctions too. Or, to make it easier, simply stop any foreign trade between US and anybody else.

I'm pretty much in favour of all of those things, except for the last bit about just sanctioning everyone, and the bit about not using the Suez, since the Suez is an internationalized waterway (unless you also happen to consider the Bosphorus to be NATO territory, which could leave your Black Sea fleet legally bottled up). I would have spoken at length about how to deal with China's growing imperialism and disrespect for democracy and its' neighbours' territorial integrity, but it's off topic here. First shot China fires at the US or any of its allies, all products made in or sneezed on in China should be banned from the shelves of Krapmart and every other retailer, and likewise for all cargo going the other way.

By the way, https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/aleppo-7-corridors-aid-delivery-one-militants-exit-russian-dm/ writes about Aleppo “Each day water, food and essentials are delivered to local residents through seven special corridors”. So, the only problem is with the terrorist no longer getting weapons and ammunition. Or terrorists preventing civilians from using these possibilities.

The UN says it's Russian bombs that stop their convoys from reaching civilians in the east, go argue it out with them.

The little babies can get corn, don't worry, if the terrorists do not prevent them from taking it from evil kafir sources. Be honest, you care about your beloved terrorists not getting weapons and ammunition.

See above. What I care about is the right of all Syrians to remain in their homes and hometowns, and to have the right to democratically choose their own leaders. Now your turn to be honest: Admit that you don't give two shits about the civilians of eastern Aleppo and their democratic rights, as you've openly stated before. You care about proving that you can wreck a small country despite Western objections, and you care about keeping your naval base at Tartus, without which you would have great difficulty harassing the Mediterranean and beyond. Lastly, you don't really care about ISIS, except when it specifically gets in the way of these goals or threatens something back home.

 

[Schmelzer]

... and the bit about not using the Suez, since the Suez is an internationalized waterway (unless you also happen to consider the Bosphorus to be NATO territory, which could leave your Black Sea fleet legally bottled up).

I don't understand this point. Sanctions means you forbid your own people and firms to do what they would be, else, allowed to do. This is done to harm another state, but has also the consequence that the own population is harmed too. Travelling through the Suez is not for free, thus, generates income to Egypt. So, Egypt would be harmed. What is the point for making this exception?

What I care about is the right of all Syrians to remain in their homes and hometowns, and to have the right to democratically choose their own leaders.

Fine, that's the Russian position. Unfortunately not the NATO position, because the NATO has an "Assad must go" position, but Assad would be the probable winner of democratic elections.

I have been a democrat only a very short time in my life, from around 1986 to around 1992 when I have learned about anarchistic theory, reading Stirner and then David Friedman's Machinery of freedom. So I indeed do not care about democracy. I don't think I have stated somewhere I care much about democratic rights.

I care about the civilians. But I do not believe Western propaganda sources. There will be always civilian victims in wars. Murdering civilians is, in this war, the job of the US-paid terrorists, who like to murder non-Wahabi people simply because of their religious beliefs. The special demonstration of this was the headcutting of that 12-yo boy by Al Zinki terrorists on their own propaganda video, and the open refusal of the US to stop paying them even after this.

There is no such religious-based murder on Assad/Russian side. And I favor a state where the people are free to follow their own religion. The main secular forces are the Assad forces and the Kurds. As ISIS, as the US- and Saudi-paid terrorists are Wahabi fundamentalists which despise religious freedom, so that all non-Wahabi people have to leave their country if they win.

 

[Schmelzer]

Today there is good news for the people in West Aleppo, the Ramouse disctrict has been taken by the Syrian army. http://www.insidesourcenews.com/single-post/2016/09/08/BREAKING-SAA-Seizes-the-Ramousah-District A consequence is that the old (much shorter and better) road to West Aleppo (the red line on the map below) can be probably reopened in short time.

There has also appeared some information that the SAA has taken Tel Kurdi in the North of East Ghouta, but this is not yet confirmed. There are certainly yet heavy fights in this region, and Tel Kurdi is a quite important hill, so it will not be given easily to the SAA. I would expect that we have yet to wait a few days until it is clear how this fight ends.

PS: According to https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-captures-strategic-district-southern-aleppo/ the Sadkop fuel depot has not yet been taken by the Syrian army, so the map is too optimistic. This does not change the main point that the road to West Aleppo is secured now.

 

[Schmelzer]

Another PS: According to https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...egic-site-southern-aleppo-first-time-3-years/ the Sadkop fuel depot has been taken. And, according to https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/syrian-army-opens-key-southern-aleppo-road/ the road through Ramouse is now again open, so the Western parts of the city have no longer to rely on the Castello road.

The information that Tal Kurdi has been taken was wrong.