Muskovite Birds of a Feather: Notes on the Great Twitterpation

How it's going:

Advertisers are leaving the site formerly known as Twitter after a new report found that pro-Nazi content was appearing next to company ads and Musk himself supported a baseless antisemitic conspiracy theory to his 163 million followers.

IBM confirmed on Thursday that it is stopping advertising on X, saying the company has "zero tolerance for hate speech and discrimination."

The European Commission also condemned X's promotion of hate speech, confirming during a press briefing on Friday that it would no longer advertise on any social media platform.

As of Saturday morning, Disney, Comcast NBCUniversal, Warner Bros., Lionsgate, Paramount Global and Apple had all announced they were pulling ads from X, according to multiple news outlets that cited sources at the companies ....

.... The advertising exodus comes after the liberal watchdog group Media Matters released a new report this week that found a number of major companies, including Apple, Amazon, Oracle NBCUniversal's Bravo network had advertisements showing up alongside white nationalist posts on the site.


(NPR↱)

Elon Musk continues his transformation of the former Twitter, and increasingly uneasy advertisers began distancing themselves from South African-American's rebranding of the social media site in the wake of a Media Matters↱ report last week:

As X owner Elon Musk continues his descent into white nationalist and antisemitic conspiracy theories, his social media platform has been placing ads for major brands like Apple, Bravo (NBCUniversal), IBM, Oracle, and Xfinity (Comcast) next to content that touts Adolf Hitler and his Nazi Party. The company's placements come after CEO Linda Yaccarino claimed that brands are "protected from the risk of being next to" toxic posts on the platform.

Yaccarino has been trying to bring advertisers back to the platform by claiming it's safe for business. She's also claimed that X (formerly Twitter) has been "demonstrating its absolute commitment to combating antisemitism on the platform" and that "antisemitism is evil and X will always work to fight it on our platform."

But her boss last night endorsed the pernicious antisemitic conspiracy theory that Jewish people are supporting "hordes of minorities" who are "flooding" into the country to replace white people. That conspiracy theory was the same one that motivated the deadly 2018 Tree of Life synagogue shooting.

In a follow-up report↱, Media Matters reminded the range of what is happening:

Pro-Hitler account. X placed ads for brands including The New York Times Co.'s The Athletic, Major League Baseball, the Atlanta Falcons, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Amazon, and Office Depot on a verified pro-Hitler account that encourages antisemitic harassment.

Holocaust deniers. X placed ads for brands such as The Wall Street Journal, Nokia, FanDuel, and Thermo Fisher on the accounts of antisemites who have denied the Holocaust.

Leading white nationalist group. X placed ads for Dish, Samsung, and The Wall Street Journal on the verified Twitter account of VDare, a leading white nationalist group.

Pro-killing of LGBTQ advocates and politicians. X placed ads for MLB, Bayer, Tyson Foods, and eBay on the account of Stew Peters, a white nationalist streamer who uses the social platform to endorse the killings of politicians and LGBTQ advocates.

Neo-Nazi group. X placed ads for Honeywell, Discovery, National Women's Soccer League, the Pittsburgh Steelers, USA Today, and Manchester City on the verified account of the National Socialist Network, a leading neo-Nazi group.

Pro-Hitler and Holocaust denier account. X placed ads for major sportsbooks BetMGM, DraftKings, and FanDuel on the verified account that has drawn millions of views for posts that lionize Hitler and deny the Holocaust. The account has also said it's been paid $3,000 this year by X.

Antisemitic conspiracy theories about 9/11. X placed ads for the NFL, MLB, T-Mobile, and eBay alongside content pushing unhinged conspiracy theories about Jewish people orchestrating the 9/11 attacks.

It's easy enough to shrug and wonder what anyone expected, because the Muskovite crowd cheering ridiculous pretenses of free speech really has done its best to convince us they believe in this stuff. And from there it's pretty much the same old stupid bully bluster we've heard from supremacists and sympathizers for years. A year ago↑, I suggested it shouldn't cost forty-four billion dollars to learn this lesson, and this time later, either they haven't learned the lesson, or that's just not the point.

To some degree, it looks like the latter.

Elon Musk announced X will file a "thermonuclear lawsuit" on Monday against Media Matters for America after one of its reports prompted multiple corporations to pull their advertising from the billionaire's rebranded social-media platform.

Musk, who owns X, took issue with the liberal media watchdog's story that claimed ads from top corporate brands were running "alongside white nationalist and pro-Nazi content." An official statement from X stated Media Matters "completely misrepresented the real user experience on X," leading to IBM, Apple, Disney, Lionsgate Entertainment, and others boycotting the platform.

"The split second court opens on Monday, X Corp will be filing a thermonuclear lawsuit against Media Matters and ALL those who colluded in this fraudulent attack on our company," Musk posted early Saturday morning on X.


(National Review)

Okay, so, let's think this through: How it started was with some notion about free speech; Musk requires a basic cacophony from which he might filter what he favors and disdains. The full explanation of what Musk is doing ranges into the ridiculous; the petulance is beyond any question of emotional maturity inasmuch as he is a son of wealth and apartheid infuriated by notions of lost glory and stains of dishonor. One way the middle road between asymmetrical political ranges becomes risky arises when one side of the argument is propped up by such significant amounts of insupportable belief. Moreover, historically it is easy enough to run around in circles of failing to learn if we do not account for that lack of support.

And how it's going is that a year after overpaying by as much as seventy-five percent ($19b), Musk's leadership has knocked another $8b out of company value while pretending to develop a one-stop social media complex. As Musk triples down on his fake free-speech evangelism, revenue has not only failed to recover, but the twitboss has gone out of his way to make things worse. A fan of white-supremacist "great replacement" conspiracism, Elon Musk has managed to punch through the noise of an atrocious war in Israel and Palestine to promote the conspiracy theory that Jews are financing the replacement in order to destroy white people. And now he is threatening to sue people for pointing that out.

Again, this is the kind of lesson he could have learned at Sciforums, for free. Or perhaps he thought he could buy and enforce truth. And note what it comes to, i.e., how it's going: "Elon Musk is so mad about all the advertisers fleeing X, he announced he's going to sue Media Matters," Matt Binder↱ explains "and in his statement, he appears to confirm the accuracy of their reports in an attempt to downplay it."

That much is true. Two effects of the X statement are suggestions that advertisers have an obligation to tolerate a requisite minimum association with infamy and harm, that free speech requires them to remain silent unless some abstract, uncertain threshold is achieved; and also that X content policies might, in and of themselves, be a viable inquiry.

Consider the solipsism of it: What Musk and X say makes perfect sense if they define everything. The free speech of cacophony imposes false equivalence, and the only thing anything is allowed to mean is whatever Elon Musk says.

Nobody needs to spend billions to learn this lesson. To the other, Musk would appear to perceive some sort of interest in not learning.
____________________

Notes:

@MattBinder. "Elon Musk is so mad about all the advertisers fleeing X, he announced he's going to sue Media Matters and in his statement, he appears to confirm the accuracy of their reports in an attempt to downplay it good luck with that lawsuit". X. 18 November 2023. Twitter.com. 19 November 2023. https://bit.ly/3SNNUMD

Allyn, Bobby and Emily Olson. "Disney, Comcast and Apple join advertiser exodus from Elon Musk's X over antisemitism". National Public Radio. 18 November 2023. NPR.org. 19 November 2023. https://bit.ly/3QO0DfH

Hananoki, Eric. "As Musk endorses antisemitic conspiracy theory, X has been placing ads for Apple, Bravo, IBM, Oracle, and Xfinity next to pro-Nazi content". Media Matters for America. 18 November 2023. MediaMatters.org. 19 November 2023.https://bit.ly/3upiNwD

—————. "X is placing ads for Amazon, NBA Mexico, NBCUniversal, and others next to content with white nationalist hashtags". Media Matters for America. 17 November 2023. MediaMatters.org. 19 November 2023. https://bit.ly/46ipJsB

Zimmerman, David. "Elon Musk to File ‘Thermonuclear Lawsuit' against Media Matters as Top Advertisers Leave X". National Review. 16 November 2023. NationalReview.com. 19 Nobember 2023. https://bit.ly/3SPES1s
 
Update: On Revenue

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We should probably check and see—

Revenue is irrelevant. I think they lost about $200 million.

I said revenue isn't relevant. Net profit or loss is.

Bells mentioned Twitter revenue, which is irrelevant since profit (net income) is the issue.

Since profit is revenue less costs, I'd actually say that revenue is not irrelevant.

It's irrelevant without knowing the costs however.

—how that's working out.

Still, think it through: It's irrelevant! It's irrelevant! It's irrelevant! It's conditionally irrelevant. In its moment, that's the thing other people could already see. One needs not be any sort of finance wizard in order to project the basics. That is to say, now that we approach this threshold, we probably ought not be surprised. Fortune reports:

Elon Musk's financial headaches at X may be catching up to him―and Tesla bulls are worrying that could spell bad news for the carmaker's investors.

Musk's repeated outbursts against advertisers have dried up the main source of revenue for the loss-making company formerly known as Twitter. A recent decision to sue them for heeding his own advice to not buy ads on the platform hasn't helped. At some point, he will have to provide a fresh infusion of cash to salvage his $44 billion takeover. And that might mean Musk sells Tesla stock to raise the money―hurting anyone who holds the carmaker's shares.

"I would be expecting something between $1 and $2 billion in stock," said Bradford Ferguson, president and chief investment officer of asset manager Halter Ferguson Financial, in comments posted to YouTube on Wednesday. This alone could cause the stock to lose between 5% and 10% of its value. "It's a massive hole they need to plug" ....

.... Ferguson based his assessment on internal second-quarter figures recently obtained by the New York Times. According to this report, X booked $114 million worth of revenue in the U.S., its largest market by far. This represented a 25% drop over the preceding three months and a 53% drop over the year-ago period.

That already sounds bad. But it gets worse. The last publicly available figures prior to Musk's acquisition, from Q2 of 2022, had revenue at $661 million. After you account for inflation, revenue has actually collapsed by 84%, in today's dollars.

No one knows how much longer X can survive, since the company doesn't release financial results. But in November, Musk himself admitted X could face bankruptcy due to the advertiser boycott.


(Hetzner↱)

Revenue was always relevant unless Elon intended to slash spending. And, sure, even beyond simply not paying the bills, it was an ambitious plan. The Financial Times reported, not quite a year and a half ago:

The February cuts removed more than 200 staff but were still broader and deeper than many employees had anticipated, because they came after Musk had already laid off half of the company's 7,500 workforce following his acquisition of Twitter in October. The move wiped out large swaths of its business development and product teams, leaving Twitter leaner—and more unstable ....

.... At an investor conference hosted by Morgan Stanley … Musk said he had cut non-debt expenditures to $1.5 billion, from the $4.5 billion that he claimed it would have otherwise incurred in 2023, adding that Twitter could reach positive cash flow by the second quarter.


(Murphy↱)

But, as one former senior staffer said, last year, "It's smoke and mirrors," and explained that Musk was "doing all this deferring of eventual costs―so he can do the victory lap".

Which, in turn, didn't really work out. By July of last year, Twitter still had negative cash flow:

Twitter's cashflow remains negative because of a nearly 50% drop in advertising revenue and a heavy debt load, Elon Musk said on Saturday, falling short of his expectation in March that Twitter could be cashflow positive by June.

“Need to reach positive cashflow before we have the luxury of anything else,” Musk said in a tweet replying to suggestions on recapitalization.

Musk said on Sunday in another tweet that Twitter did not see the increase in advertising revenue that had been expected in June, adding: “July is a bit more promising.” Twitter Spaces also hasn't generated revenue yet and is “all-cost”, Musk said.

This is the latest sign that the aggressive cost-cutting measures since Musk acquired Twitter in October are not enough to get Twitter cashflow positive, and suggests Twitter's ad revenue may not have recovered as quickly as Musk suggested in an interview with the BBC in April that most advertisers had returned to the site.


(Reuters↱)

Oh, hey, it's that pesky, irrelevant revenue, again. It turns out that cutting three billion in non-debt expenditures isn't as impressive a result when revenue is down and the company is still carrying a "heavy debt load".

Anyway, here we all are, and revenue has become so relevant that Elon Musk has resorted to suing advertisers↱ for not buying adspace on his platform.

"Revenue is irrelevant"? It really was great logic: Revenue is irrelevant, as they only needed another $200 million in revenue in order to break even.

Still, though, not quite two years in, and here we are.
____________________

Notes:

Hetzner, Christiaan. "Elon Musk’s financial woes at X have Tesla bulls fearing he will liquidate more stock". Fortune. 15 August 2024. Fortune.com. 16 August 2024. https://fortune.com/2024/08/15/elon...dvertiser-boycott-finances-bradford-ferguson/

Murphy, Hannah. "Inside Elon Musk’s cost-cutting drive at Twitter". Financial Times. 17 March 2023. ArsTechnica.com. 16 August 2024. https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2023/03/inside-elon-musks-cost-cutting-drive-at-twitter/

O'Reilly, Lara. "Elon Musk has a weak case against advertisers — but he's playing the long game". Business Insider. 8 August 2024. BusinessInsider.com. 16 August 2024. https://www.businessinsider.com/elon-musk-x-advertiser-lawsuits-silence-opponents-2024-8

Nidumolu, Jahnavi and Krystal Hu. "Elon Musk says Twitter cashflow still negative amid 50% drop in ad revenue". Reuters. 17 July 2023. Reuters.com. 16 August 2024. https://www.reuters.com/technology/...w-still-negative-ad-revenue-drops-2023-07-15/
 
I think you are just too literal to understand what you read. I was never saying that revenue has no relevance at all, as in, there should be no term called "revenue". That's silly. Who would come to that conclusion from what I wrote? You, but that's about it.

It's been two years but as I recall Bells was talking about X revenue when the subject should have been profit. It's like when people judge a company as making too much money and not paying their employees enough and then they say "Company XYZ had $1 billion in revenue last year and their employees are all on food stamps". In that context revenue is irrelevant to the subject at hand. Is the company profitable? If they aren't profitable then quoting their revenue is misleading or "not relevant" to the subject at hand.

Suddenly, after 2 years, you continue with this again? I think you have a screw loose. Is "rant" the only gear you have? You know you aren't actually saying anything. Don't you?
 
#HowItsGoing |#ThisIsFine

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"Amazing how the dude who runs this site acts like a 14 year old Redditor on r/atheism"


It is easy to give too much thought to the question of how much thought we should give, but still.
 
#HowItsGoing | #ThisIsFine

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Per TechCrunch↱:

Elon Musk's X is now worth less than a quarter of its $44 billion purchase price, according to a new estimate from investor Fidelity.

The asset manager's Blue Chip Growth Fund now values its stake in X, formerly known as Twitter, at approximately $4.19 million, based on newly released disclosures from Fidelity's Blue Chip Growth Fund. The firm's unit has reduced the value of its holding in X by a total of 78.7% as of August end.

For context, Fidelity had initially invested $19.66 million in X through the Blue Chip Fund, as per regulatory filings. This isn't the first time Fidelity has cut the value of its holding in X. As of July's end, Fidelity had valued its shares in X at about $5.5 million.

This 78.7% markdown implies that Fidelity is currently valuing X at about $9.4 billion overall.

There are a lot of lessons to learn from the Muskovite Twittery, but at the heart of it is that, whatever else we think of financial "value", in this case, it's worth the waste of thirty-five billion dollars in value so that Elon musk can do whatever it is he thinks he is doing with the platform.
____________________

Notes:

Singh, Manish. "Fidelity has cut its estimate of X's value by 79% since Musk's purchase". TechCrunch. 29 September 2024. TechCrunch.com. 1 October 2024. https://techcrunch.com/2024/09/29/fidelity-has-cut-xs-value-by-79-since-musk-purchase/

 
I think it's fair to say that he overpaid, made a mistake due to his ego but that it was losing money before he got involved and Dorsey left the company with a lot of bloat. My guess for a base case (neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic) is that it could be breaking even and then making $500 million a year in profit within 3 years.

To get 50% of the pre-purchase advertisers back using AI and community self-moderation systems would be possible and would require some compromise from Musk and after that to get beyond break-even would probably depend on new subscription services being successful.

I used a LLM to help me do the legwork and run through reasonable assumptions. I'd say this would be a reasonable, positive scenario. Or he could just run it into the ground of course...
 
I used a LLM to help me do the legwork and run through reasonable assumptions. I'd say this would be a reasonable, positive scenario.

Did the LLM figure out how to achieve profit without revenue?
 
I think it's fair to say that he overpaid, made a mistake due to his ego but that it was losing money before he got involved and Dorsey left the company with a lot of bloat. My guess for a base case (neither too optimistic nor too pessimistic) is that it could be breaking even and then making $500 million a year in profit within 3 years.

To get 50% of the pre-purchase advertisers back using AI and community self-moderation systems would be possible and would require some compromise from Musk and after that to get beyond break-even would probably depend on new subscription services being successful.

I used a LLM to help me do the legwork and run through reasonable assumptions. I'd say this would be a reasonable, positive scenario. Or he could just run it into the ground of course...
Musk bought Twitter 6 months after his son Xavier* announced, on his 18th birthday, that he was transitioning to a woman and renouncing his father.

Weirdo Musk basically got outweirded by his own son - and couldn’t handle it. He flipped, declared war on the “woke mind virus”, bought Twitter, sacked the editorial staff and rewrote the algorithm to give prominence to his own posts.

So that is what it was all about, not any business rationale.

Since then he has got radicalised by his own platform, living in a far-right bubble and going madder and madder.

* everything in weirdo Musk’s world has to have an X in it, apparently.
 
Musk bought Twitter 6 months after his son Xavier* announced, on his 18th birthday, that he was transitioning to a woman and renouncing his father.

Weirdo Musk basically got outweirded by his own son - and couldn’t handle it. He flipped, declared war on the “woke mind virus”, bought Twitter, sacked the editorial staff and rewrote the algorithm to give prominence to his own posts.

So that is what it was all about, not any business rationale.

Since then he has got radicalised by his own platform, living in a far-right bubble and going madder and madder.

* everything in weirdo Musk’s world has to have an X in it, apparently.
My comments still stand.
 
Revenue was $3.4 billion last year.

Still not enough; see #163↑ above, "Twitter's cashflow remains negative because of a nearly 50% drop in advertising revenue and a heavy debt load, Elon Musk said on Saturday, falling short of his expectation in March that Twitter could be cashflow positive by June."

That was this year, not last.

Revenue remains relevant.
 
Still not enough; see #163↑ above, "Twitter's cashflow remains negative because of a nearly 50% drop in advertising revenue and a heavy debt load, Elon Musk said on Saturday, falling short of his expectation in March that Twitter could be cashflow positive by June."

That was this year, not last.

Revenue remains relevant.
I didn't say it was enough nor did I say they would break-even this year.
 
American Conservative Icon and Presidential Influencer Endorses Actual German Nazis

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The one in the X hat: Cartoon by Matt Wuerker, 28 October 2024

Ostensible nevertrump conservative Bill Kristol↱ might have a point:

I think this should be kind of a big deal: @elonmusk tweeting at 1:03am, “Only the AfD can save Germany.”

The AfD is Germany’s neo-Nazi party

Thing is, maybe there will be a big deal about it; these things are uncertain in the United States, these days. However, there isn't really any reason to be surprised. Plenty have called Elon Musk a Nazi, but only Elon Musk could affirm it so directly.
 
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