Trying to Build an Analysis .....
BruceP said:
If the Seahawks can run the football they'll dominate.
That's a big
if. The Beast does what he does, but what really blows my mind is that we made it
this season with
this offensive line. Okung has never really lived up to expectation; Giaccomini is a case study all his own; and then there's Sweezy, Carpenter, and McQuistan, who are all inconsistent; and will Jeanpierre be ready if Unger gets fragile?
I mean, sure, I remember the days when a four yard average per carry meant you were getting 3-5 yards per run. For the Seahawks this season, they've shown both a consistent running game
and the inconsistent sort where Lynch gets his average by busting a couple of huge runs.
The question of domination is also the criterion. The front line needs to
dominate.
Then again, it's the Super Bowl, and with the added bonus of the opponent being the Denver Broncos. I would expect the OL to blaze, but so would I expect of Denver's DL.
My early analysis is that running the defense through the corners is a plus in this game. There was the recent back-and-forth about whether Manning throws ducks, and everyone seems to be in agreement that he does. Of course, his ducks still get exactly where they need to be, and everyone seems to agree on that, too.
What this creates, though, is an opportunity for the corners. Sherman's vertical is impressive, his range exceptional, and his precision almost scary. Throwing a duck instead of a spiral might make the difference between a completion, fingernail deflection, or interception.
The obvious passing-game answer to this is to slant, dig, and drag. Don't run with the corners; create space in other ways.
The challenge for Denver on that count is whether their receiving corps can endure the teeth-rattling, brain-injuring assault they will receive from the linebackers in exchange.
And then there's Ball and Moreno. Despite being probable with a rib injury, if Moreno takes the field—and he will—he will play until he drops, and likely play well. And Montee Ball? I am more confident in our secondary against Manning and the receiving corps than I am that we will be able to quash the ground game. Sure, Ball averaged a respectable 4.7 per carry in limited play, and that number is down slightly in the postseason, but he's the one that worries me. When I see those postseason stats—22 carries, 95 yards, 4.3 average, with a long of
9 yards reminds that he can pull off the steady grind, the "smashmouth", the old-school 3-5 yards a carry. At 5'10, 215, he isn't the kind of smashmouther to simply smashmouth; he's the kind of smashmouther who slips through gaps with enough force that arm-tackling doesn't work. He ran a 4.6 at the Combine, and achieved a 4.5+ on Pro Day, but is better on the cut than calculating angles. To the other, he doesn't need a Beast-Mode seventy-yard touchdown; if he gets his 3-5 per carry, with a couple busts for fifteen to twenty yards, that will be enough to create havoc. As much as I hate to say it, he
can be fragile, so the Seafense needs to hit him square and clean and hard every chance they get. Rattle him up. Drive him through the turf. They'll be after Moreno's ribs; they'll try to cut Manning in half to agitate his neck with the whip. And while I don't appreciate headshots at all, the guy has suffered a concussion, so hit him hard enough that he sees stars.
A note to my international neighbors and others less familiar with American football: I know, it sounds brutal to the point of sinister, and borders on outright evil. This is a gladiator sport, and pretty much everyone involved, from the players to the fans, team owners and league officials, and even the future stars and their parents, knows. And we do it anyway. And, yes, pain and injury are not only part of the game, they're part of the plan. If a quarterback comes out wearing a flak jacket for his ribs, you hit him in the ribs until they break, he drops, or the game is over. If a guy has a history of concussions, you hit him as hard as you can and try to drive him into the field; last year Kam Chancellor knocked the holy living something or other out of Vernon Davis, drawing a penalty for what turned out to be a textbook proper hit. To the other, the impact rattled Davis enough to give him a concussion. You can damn well bet that from day one this season, every defender after Davis would be looking for the opportunity to rattle him that way again. Check the volume before you start the video:
[video=youtube;fH1i1N1eENw]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fH1i1N1eENw[/video]
But yes, every DB is looking for that exact opportunity to hit the receivers. It's ugly, it's brutal, and it's the way the game goes. And, yes, in a game like this, you exploit those opportunities. So, yes. As much as I hate to say it, rattle the hell out of Montee Ball. What you
don't do, though, is aim high:
Harvin passed his concussion protocols after that one, but apparently failed them later. That is to say, he returned to the game, sustained what we thought was an arm or shoulder injury later, and the next day he was listed with a concussion.
So, no. You don't dive through the knees; you don't aim for the head. But you hurt them as much as you can, and if that ends their game, good. If it ends their career, well, that's what everyone signed on for. As long as it's clean.
I will note, though, that in realtime, we were all surprised that Davis got up at all after that hit.
Back to the analysis ....
I'm still not a Carroll believer, yet. Recall the Atlanta game last season; the mistakes that made the vital difference were all on Pete Carroll. And while we certainly trust him in certain things, his occasional clock-management debacles and why-did-you-call-that-play moments are worrisome. And I occasionally wonder about his game plan insofar as not utilizing the tight ends enough, and his seeming reluctance to call a quick slant from the flanker. To wit, a play sequence I've never seen him call in Seattle:
1st Down: Quick-slant flanker (4-6 yds)
2nd Down: Single-back dive 3 hole (3-5 yds)
3rd Down: Tight end shallow- or bubble-flat (4-10 yds)
The challenge of the quick-slant is that Wilson is shorter than most quarterbacks, and needs the sidestep drop to get the ball through that hole at about helmet or shoulder level to the DL. But Carroll doesn't even have that in his audible set, it seems, for strong-side defensive gap with an obvious weak-side stunt coming. And given Wilson's read ability, he can always use a sweep pitch as his safety valve if the strong side LB crashes.
To the other, Carroll is the head coach, and I'm just a fan from a coaching family. There's only so subtle I can get.
But that's the thing with the clock management and some of the playbook; it is enough to accept that Pete knows something we don't, but quite often we're also left, after the game, wondering what he thought that was.
It's always good to know a team can still get there when they're not playing at peak, but we need peak performance tomorrow.
