Yazata wrote: "NASA defines UAP as observations of events in the sky that cannot be identified as aircraft or known natural phenomena from a scientific perspective."
Those were NASA's words, not mine. I assume they were the words of the NASA PR person who wrote the press release, not carefully considered language from their Independent Study Team.
Just out of curiosity, do skeptics in general agree with this definition of UAPs?
I'm most definitely not a skeptic in the sense Sciforums uses that word. But I'd pretty much agree with Sarkus. (That's as scary for me as is it probably is for him. Next thing I'll be working alongside Wegs for Mick West.)
I think that I would just add a single word to the press release, so that it reads (highlighting by me):
"NASA defines UAP as observations of events in the sky that cannot
currently be identified as aircraft or known natural phenomena from a scientific perspective".
Seems to rule out mundane explanations from the outset.
I don't think that they should define UAP to be observations that
cannot in principle be identified as aircraft or known natural phenomena. How could they possibly know what future observations might reveal? I'd rather imagine that cases can move into and out of the UAP category as circumstances warrant. Cases that are UAP cases now might move out of the UAP file into the "mundane" file. All that would require is a plausible, convincing and evidenced identification as something "mundane" (however we choose to use that word).
So you think mundane causes for a UAP can never be completely ruled out?
I'm a fallibilist (a "skeptic" in the more historical sense of the word). I accept the ever-present possibility of error. So whatever proposition we pop out with ("this sighting can't be identified as an aircraft or a natural phenomenon"), there will be some possibility (however small) that the proposition is false. In other words, absolute necessary truth is a cognitive ideal, not something attainable by humans (who lack the "gods-eye view" of reality).
So no, we can't ever eliminate the possibility that a seeming UAP case might in the future be identified as "mundane" (whatever that means). What human beings
can do is reduce the likelihood that will happen, by adding independent witnesses and a wider variety of instrumental modalities (radar, photographic, electromagnetic etc.)
Perhaps we
can rule out the possibility that we are wrong in a pragmatic sense, in the sense that we are willing to believe and act upon whatever it is. (That's my own definition of 'faith'.) But it will never rise to the level of absolute certainty.
The Sciforums skeptics will always be there demanding 'What about
this or that (very speculative) possibility??' And as I just argued, there will always be a logical space for them to do that (the residual possibility that the UAP ascription is mistaken). It's a useful role for them to play, I guess. Even if we recognize that nothing will ever convince some of them that the UAP category isn't just "woo", an empty set simply by definition, provided only that a suitably rigorous analysis is done in each purported case.
Maybe they are right, maybe they aren't. None of us is currently in a position to know that.