Shooting at Trump rally

A distinction therefore needs to be drawn, I feel, between these two (i.e. conspiracy large and implausible, vs conspiracy small and plausible) lest you tarnish the latter with the baggage of the former.
The FBI clarified Friday night that Donald Trump was struck by a bullet during an assassination attempt earlier this month, after the director of the FBI speculated earlier that the GOP presidential nominee could have been pierced by a piece of shrapnel instead.
 
Sure, but they're distinguishing between "shrapnel" and "bullet" - the former being non-bullet and the latter being the bullet in some form, whether direct or fragment or ricochet etc.
The Forbes article you link to above even says:

The FBI later told Forbes in a statement Friday night that what struck Trump “was a bullet, whether whole or fragmented into smaller pieces, fired from the deceased subject’s rifle.”

THlhat it was a bullet (or part thereof) that struck him is not the issue. My view is that it was most likely a ricochet or fragment, as a direct impact from a projectile going faster than sound... well, shockwaves, and all that other stuff (i.e. as already opined). It is then not a far-fetched theory that Trump is doing everything he can to perpetuate the story of direct hit.
 
That it was a bullet (or part thereof) that struck him is not the issue.
Why not? Has it been recovered and/or reconstructed? If they don't know whether bullet or fragment, they probably have neither to examine. So how do they know it was from that rifle? Many little fishies in that pond.
 
Why not? Has it been recovered and/or reconstructed? If they don't know whether bullet or fragment, they probably have neither to examine. So how do they know it was from that rifle? Many little fishies in that pond.
Ah, the "second shooter"! Was there a grassy knoll nearby? ;)
 
The FBI later told Forbes in a statement Friday night that what struck Trump “was a bullet, whether whole or fragmented into smaller pieces, fired from the deceased subject’s rifle.”
This closes it for me. Unless further evidence comes to light, I'll take their word.

I don't doubt that Trump will spin it any way he can, that goes without saying.
 
Ah, the "second shooter"! Was there a grassy knoll nearby?
Not even close! I don't think he was shot at all. Maybe a chip of wood or glass grazed him - obviously did not enter or pass through any part of his body - but the actual bullet went into the fireman. If 'shrapnel', where did the bullet have a chance to fragment? What would it have hit first?
 
Damn sloppy forensics? Facile fob-off? Don't want to tell you what we actually know, because we don't know squat?
OK, but isn't that pretty far into Conspiracy Theory territory? I mean, one one side we have the org that is the authority, saying they have made their conclusions (which, presumably, they would only do once they had sufficient grounds to do so), and on the other we have un-evidenced speculation. With all due respect, is this more than an armchair do-your-own-research! kind of thing? Based on what?
 
OK, but isn't that pretty far into Conspiracy Theory territory?
I don't think a conspiracy is required for a law-enforcement agency to be careless in the wording of its news release. Sure, something grazed the guy's ear. Of course there was a shooter. It's fair enough to conclude that what grazed the ear either came from the gun, or was in some way connected to the shooting. The FBI only has a clearance rate of about 60% - far better than most US police forces, but they're hardly infallible. In this case, the perp was put out of action, so what more needs resources wasted on it?
Based on what?

The pictures, mainly.
I'm quite content for them to close the investigation. Some part of a bullet passed close by his head, okay; there was even a little blood to show. What I object to is the spreading of an obvious falsehood: that a rifle bullet actually hit Trump.
 
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I don't think he was shot at all. Maybe a chip of wood or glass grazed him - obviously did not enter or pass through any part of his body -

Sure, something grazed the guy's ear. Of course there was a shooter. It's fair enough to conclude that what grazed the ear came from the gun, or was in some way connected to the shooting.

OK, it sounds like you're bifurcating bunnies pretty finely here.

You agree to the sequence: shooter > projectile > Trump, you're just contesting the nuances, yes?


I don't think he was shot at all. Maybe a chip of wood or glass grazed him - obviously did not enter or pass through any part of his body -
Why? Why not a bullet? If it just nicked his ear, it should not open a giant hole, and I don't think there is a lot of blood in the upper ear lobe - it's mostly cartilage.

The point is: why multiply entities unnecessarily?

If 'shrapnel', where did the bullet have a chance to fragment? What would it have hit first?
True, this is something I wondered about.


Still, as far as I'm concerned, shooter > bullet > Trump is pretty much settled. It wasn't blanks; it wasn't a big setup or stunt. There's no question that Trump will play it up and best he can, but who cares about that? It's a given. I satisfied that the incident is bona fide enough that there is something for him to play up.
 
Operating from scant information. You know Trump is not cooperating with the FBI, lest they say anything that contradicts his carefully constructed narrative.
But that presupposes the FBI would publish their conclusion prematurely, as opposed to saying "All the information we need has not been forthcoming. or merely "we're still gathering facts." or some such.

They haven't said "We're not yet sure"; they've said unequivocally what they concluded happened.

Are we assuming Trump has the FBI in his back pocket? That they can be strong-armed (by someone) into releasing such an unequivocal conclusion before its time? They'd have to be corrupt. So I'm not sure where you and Jeeves stand on the FBI.
 
Are we assuming Trump has the FBI in his back pocket? That they can be strong-armed (by someone) into releasing such an unequivocal conclusion before its time?
Nope. No need to assume anything. The FBI had enough information to draw their conclusions, so they did. Since this is not part of an active investigation, anything deeper would be a waste of time and money.
 
They haven't said "We're not yet sure"; they've said unequivocally what they concluded happened.
But they have said that they're not sure, at least in as much as they have said they don't know whether he was struck by a whole bullet or fragment. That suggests they don't know the precise trajectories of the bullets fired, and thus quite a bit remains in doubt.

Personally, and this may be my cynical self, but I think they have concluded internally that it was a fragment, but wrote the report expressing sufficient doubt so as to allow Trump to continue to claim he was "hit by a bullet" (by which Trump wants everyone to believe it was a direct hit to his ear).
The last thing they would want would be to embroiled in a dispute with Trump over such an issue. Trump would claim they were being controlled by the Dems to lie about what hit him, that they were interfering with the election, etc.
Better to just say the truth in the report but leave enough room that satisfies Trump.
 
Nope. No need to assume anything. The FBI had enough information to draw their conclusions, so they did.
OK, so you just disagree with them. You think he wasn't shot at all.

I'm still trying out figure out what tips your opinion from "FBI made a good call" to "FBI made a bad call". If it were about being pressed for time, I can't see them making such a unequivocal statement that doesn't even try to hedge their bets.

I'm not tying to be argumentative here, I have huge respect for both you and Jeeves; I'm just trying to figure out what you are seeing that should override the FBI's pretty unequivocal conclusion that he was shot by a bullet from the shooter's gun. I want to figure out what puzzle piece you are seeing that I am missing. I am sincere.
 
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You agree to the sequence: shooter > projectile > Trump, you're just contesting the nuances, yes?
Yes. this one: A bullet hit him. He did not then and does not now, in many publicly available images, look like someone who has been hit by a bullet. Simple enough?
If it just nicked his ear,
I'm okay with that, even though I see no trace of a wound only two weeks later. If cartilaginous tissue doesn't bleed copiously, by the same token, it does not heal prodigally. This healing is spectacularly fast.
The point is: why multiply entities unnecessarily?
I wasn't multiplying; I was subtracting. Less happened to him than is reported. The spokesperson used one careless word, nothing more.

Since this is not part of an active investigation, anything deeper would be a waste of time and money.
just so. Everyone is satisfied and the FBI has more important things to do. The early news release was no doubt in response to pressure to close it and get themselves out of there asap. I don't blame them.
I'm just trying to figure out what you think overrides the FBI's pretty unequivocal conclusion that he was shot by a bullet from the shooter's gun.
Simply that he is not shot. There is no bullet in his body. There is no bullet-hole in his body. Either a whole bullet (unlikely) or a fragment of something whizzed past his ear, superficially grazing it. That is not being shot.
Having worked in forensics, I'm more inclined to trust physical evidence than someone's words in a microphone.
I admit it's a bias.
 
Yes. this one: A bullet hit him. He did not then and does not now, in many publicly available images, look like someone who has been hit by a bullet. Simple enough?
Well, winged. Its pretty apparent that projectile did not penetrate sufficient tissue to impart any significant kinetic energy.


I'm okay with that, even though I see no trace of a wound only two weeks later. If cartilaginous tissue doesn't bleed copiously, by the same token, it does not heal prodigally. This healing is spectacularly fast.
Have we, in fact, seen his ear since the incident? I have not. How do we judge whether it is healed or healing?

I wasn't multiplying; I was subtracting. Less happened to him than is reported. The spokesperson used one careless word, nothing more.
OK, so it seems that you're making a distinction between shot and winged. Fair? I'm OK with that.

just so. Everyone is satisfied and the FBI has more important things to do. The early news release was no doubt in response to pressure to close it and get themselves out of there asap. I don't blame them.
Which is strong evidence that there was no tomfoolery. Shooter > gun > projectile > ear.
You do not see any sign of "conspiracy". That wasn't entirely apparent when we started down this path.

Simply that he is not shot. There is no bullet in his body.
OK, hang on.

That's not a criteria for "getting shot". Lots of bullets have exit wounds.

There is no bullet-hole in his body.
Again, do we know that? If you have a pic of his ear since the event, I would be very interested in seeing it. I know there are already pics out there pretending to be recent but are, in fact, years old.

If it were a bullet, and it took off, say, a semi-circular portion of his lobe, that in my books, counts. But YMMV.

Either a whole bullet (unlikely) or a fragment of something whizzed past his ear, superficially grazing it. That is not being shot.

This is dependent on seeing the wound after-the-fact, no?

Having worked in forensics, I'm more inclined to trust physical evidence than someone's words in a microphone.
Ineed. And I am very interested in this physical evidence. Is my news-crawling out-of-date?
 
Well, winged.
That would be a flesh wound to the arm. Not shot, not hit, not nicked (no missing wedge), just grazed.
This is dependent on seeing the wound after-the-fact, no?
No - on not seeing a wound, then or later.
I know there are already pics out there pretending to be recent but are, in fact, years old.
He only just disgraced himself at the NABJ interview yesterday.

Have we, in fact, seen his ear since the incident?
He's on television every single day. Sans square bandage tag.
You do not see any sign of "conspiracy"
Of course not. One careless word, inflated by many, many lies.
Pretty much par.
And I am very interested in this physical evidence.
Look with your eyes. The absence of a wound is physical and very much in evidence. The bullets fragments would be useful for police purposes if they needed to support a court case. Finding and reconstructing bullets is painstaking work, very difficult at that kind of site - it probably wasn't deemed necessary in the circumstances.
As i say, I'm happy to let it lie.
 
But they have said that they're not sure, at least in as much as they have said they don't know whether he was struck by a whole bullet or fragment. That suggests they don't know the precise trajectories of the bullets fired, and thus quite a bit remains in doubt.
Right. And no one cares which one it is, other than people like you. The shooter is dead.

Imagine you had a murder mystery; a man was shot and killed in his own home. By looking through video recordings and looking for clues, they find the perpetrator, a thief that shot the man as he was robbing the house. He confesses. The evidence cooroborates that. Case closed.

Now, someone who reads about it might be curious if the thief fired four or five times. But it's a don't-care. The case is solved and the guilty brougt to justice. You might claim "quite a bit remains in doubt if they don't even know how many BULLETS were fired!" And you can think that if you like; the people working the case most likely do not.
 
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