The "Stage Theory of Theories" - Cause for Concern?

"We know the luminiferous ether better than we know any other kind of matter in some particulars. "

- Lord Kelvin
Lord Kelvin also famously said

"There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement."
...shortly before Einsteinian relativity and quantum mechanics overturned our entire understanding of nature.

So maybe not the best example to use as someone who has his finger on the pulse of science...

What we can say with certainty, though, is that scientists -- including the very finest -- have expressed similar sentiments in the past and been quite wrong
Offering counter examples doesn't negate the examples. We have found the atoms; we have found the germs. We can't unfind them.

Thus, Popper overreached: never say never.
 
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Offering counter examples doesn't negate the examples. We have found the atoms; we have found the germs. We can't unfind them.

Found? You mean like seen them? Well, people used to see witches; subsequently they were "unfound". But scientists don't do that kinda thing? My old pal Bas van Fraassen again . . .

"A good example also are the homunculi: when van Leeuwenhoek examined his semen under the new microscope, he saw these postulated fully formed little humans swimming around. Not only that, his friends (all male) saw them too" - "The Scientific Image", p214


What's the point? Other members have alluded -- very sensibly! -- to the "theory laden" nature of our observations. What we see depends on the conceptual (cf. theoretical) apparatus we bring to bear on these observations.

Philosophical mumbo-jumbo? Don't believe me? Maybe you'll find this fella more convincing . . .


"This may have been my philosophy, but it is nonsense all the same. It is never possible to introduce only observable quantities in a theory. It is the theory which decides what can be observed."

- Albert Einstein
 
See above.

Are you planning to get all dogmatic on us now, Dave? I thought that was strictly taboo in science? The book is closed and that's that?
 
By the way, if you're thoroughly imbued with the cladistic school of systematics, with your theory-laden vision, you quite literally see a dinosaur on your Thanksgiving table.

I don't. How about you?
 
See above.

Are you planning to get all dogmatic on us now, Dave? I thought that was strictly taboo in science? The book is closed and that's that?
Your sarcastic affectation is dodging actual discourse and is more indicative of a weakening position.

You have no trouble interrogating others as if they're on the hot seat, but you get pretty shirty when it's you in the hot seat.

I suggest this thread is getting a little too emotional. That would certainly be a better arena to try to fight in than one than is based simply on logic and fact.
 
Oh, just one last thing . . .


Certainly, Forrest Valkai doesn't get everything right. But from what I've seen of him, he is a good science communicator. Also, he's quite young. He'll get better.

Have you ever seen The Atheist Experience on youtube, or heard it in podcast form? If not, I recommend that you watch an episode or two, to see what Forrest (and the other hosts) have to deal with, week in and week out. The level of ignorance of science - even the grade school stuff - from certain callers beggars belief. In that environment, just about any education about what it means to think critically, or about how science is done or what it has found, has to be a net positive.

No, I haven't seen it, and I shudder at the very thought. I'll take your word for it, James, with no doubt at all.

Meanwhile, as if Forrest, Professor Dave, and AronRa weren't bad enough themselves (as I see matters anyway), have you seen the comments that their legions of foot soldiers leave below the vids? Likewise, it beggars belief, not only in the degree of ignorance but the degree of nastiness. Even Prof Dave himself reacts to negative criticism -- on the rare occasions that he doesn't simply censor the critic altogether by blocking -- with a mouth that would put a Glasgow dockworker to shame. It's quite astounding. Anyway, I see no reason to believe that the Creationist camp enjoys a monopoly on ignorance.

If one thing about these Youtube "educators" (and hence their followers) bugs me above all else -- more than the incompetence, arrogance, and smugness -- it's the dehumanization of their adversaries (almost invariably Creationists/ID proponents). They're not just stupid and ignorant, we are told, implicitly or not, but dishonest; liars and cheats the lot of them.

I find it a worrying state of affairs. How about yourself?
 
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Lord Kelvin also famously said

"There is nothing new to be discovered in physics now. All that remains is more and more precise measurement."
...shortly before Einsteinian relativity and quantum mechanics overturned our entire understanding of nature.

So maybe not the best example to use as someone who has his finger on the pulse of science...

Tsk tsk, Lord Kelvin.

Pretty sure we can close the book on The Germ Theory of Disease and the Atomic Theory of Matter.

You do see the irony, don't you?
 
Tsk tsk, Lord Kelvin.



You do see the irony, don't you?
I'm not sure you do.

In defense of Popper, you listed Lord Kelvin as one of the guys who thought aether was a done deal. Turns out he was wrong, sure. But Kelvin wasn't a good predictor of what constituted done deals, as witnessed by the fact that he thought science was all wrapped up. So Kelvin is a pretty bad example to pull out in defense of Popper.

But we do have theories that have become fact. So Popper was overreaching.



Oh yeah. Evolution itself is another theory that is fact. It is manifest in any fish store or dog kennel. What is not fact is evolution by natural selection.
 
Dave, it seems you misunderstand me at almost every turn. I have tried to clarify Popper's views for other members, who are perhaps unclear about them. I certainly haven't been defending him. Lord Kelvin, Maxwell, and Thomson were adduced in response to your "the book is closed" views on certain theories. The aforementioned trio evidently also felt the book was closed on the aether. They couldn't have been more wrong.

But since we're here . . .

But we do have theories that have become fact. So Popper was overreaching.

Hold that quote for now. I mentioned way back in post 176 . . .

From memory, I'm pretty sure Douglas Futuyma and Mark Kirkpatrick say something STOT-like in what may be the definitive textbook on evolution entitled simply "Evolution". I must get it out from the library again to check.

I have the book beside me now, second edition, 2009. Between pages 13 and 15 is a brief section entitled "Evolution as Fact and Theory". All I can really say on rereading is: No wonder people are confused! A more mangled, incoherent, self-contradictory mess I have rarely seen. We could spend the next week untangling it all.

But it's late. Since Dave mentioned "facts", I'll simply quote briefly what Futuyma and Kirkpatrick have to say (p14):


"What we call facts are hypotheses that have acquired so much supporting evidence that we act as if they were true. A hypothesis may be poorly supported at first, but it can gain support, to the point that it is effectively a fact."


In other words, that which was not a fact to begin with, as a result of scientific investigation and evidential support, becomes a fact. A new fact is born!

Well, what's wrong with that? Ans: Nothing whatsoever if you're a social constructivist. It's precisely what these guys say. But not too many scientists are social constructivists - perhaps the understatement of the year. These are generally considered to be the bad guys.

What do the good guys say then? Normally something like this: Science does not create or construct or manufacture facts; science discovers facts about the world. Science does not bring facts into existence. If evolution, say, is a fact now then it was a fact 100 years ago, 1000 years ago, and a fact when Raquel Welch was doing battle with triceratops. Raquel may not have known that evolution was a fact of the world. Nonetheless, it was, and still is.


I take it neither Futuyma nor Kirkpatrick are social constructivists, even though they are inadvertently speaking the language of social constructivism. And I take it Dave isn't one either . . . though he speaks the lingo too. See quote at top.
 
I sense semantic tunnel vision developing. Not really hard to stipulate that propositions we hold to be true about the world are a softer shading of truth, i.e. highly probable. Germs cause disease. Very probable they are, with a tiny chance we're rather in a simulation where it only looks that way. Highly probable things we adopt as being true for purposes of living in the world and staying sane. Facts? Of course we construct them. Reality is a whole. Facts are lean, carefully sculpted propositions (employing language and math) about particular parts of that whole. Well, except for Doug Adams "42."
 
Dave, it seems you misunderstand me at almost every turn. I have tried to clarify Popper's views for other members, who are perhaps unclear about them. I certainly haven't been defending him.
Ok, well he was wrong on his stance that theories are never proven.

Lord Kelvin, Maxwell, and Thomson were adduced in response to your "the book is closed" views on certain theories. The aforementioned trio evidently also felt the book was closed on the aether. They couldn't have been more wrong.
We agree.
Whatever made them think aether was fact, they were hasty.

Nonetheless, we can't unfind atoms, germs or evolution.

I have the book beside me now, second edition, 2009. Between pages 13 and 15 is a brief section entitled "Evolution as Fact and Theory". All I can really say on rereading is: No wonder people are confused! A more mangled, incoherent, self-contradictory mess I have rarely seen. We could spend the next week untangling it all.
If a given science discipline could be grokked in a few chapters, it would be taught in grade school.
We have come back around to why sound bites and Youtube videos are not equivalent to an education.

And yes, evolution is a developing field.

But it's late. Since Dave mentioned "facts", I'll simply quote briefly what Futuyma and Kirkpatrick have to say (p14):


"What we call facts are hypotheses that have acquired so much supporting evidence that we act as if they were true. A hypothesis may be poorly supported at first, but it can gain support, to the point that it is effectively a fact."


In other words, that which was not a fact to begin with, as a result of scientific investigation and evidential support, becomes a fact. A new fact is born!
I disagree with this.
This entire thread is a prime example. It's common to use words like 'theory' and 'fact' loosely in idle conversation - until someone takes you literally, and then you have to clarify and qualify.


What do the good guys say then? Normally something like this: Science does not create or construct or manufacture facts; science discovers facts about the world. Science does not bring facts into existence. If evolution, say, is a fact now then it was a fact 100 years ago, 1000 years ago,
Ehh... Facts require humans to conceive of them, as I see it.
It is factual that evolution was happening in the past, but the fact itself can't have-existed without a mind.
In that sense, facts must be a human invention.

I'm not sure this is a productive line of thought. It is getting pretty semantic.

I take it neither Futuyma nor Kirkpatrick are social constructivists, even though they are inadvertently speaking the language of social constructivism. And I take it Dave isn't one either . . . though he speaks the lingo too.
I prefer to eschew labels. They carry baggage, paint with, broad brush, and they can have different meanings to different people.
I may well fit into a box you label social constructivism, but such a box does not constrain me or allow you to predict me. I'd prefer you just give specific rationale.
 
I sense semantic tunnel vision developing.

Well, there's plenty of discussion of semantics in the thread, perhaps boring to some people who feel "It's just semantics. Yawn!". Of course, when it is asserted that evolution is just a theory, perhaps by someone influential like Ronald Reagan, the same members are liable to be far less phlegmatic.

Semantics have consequences out there in the world. Some members may quite rightly feel a sense of outrage that Reagan (or whoever) is massively misleading the public and eroding trust in science . . . all through the inappropriate use of one little word. I feel STOT advocates and their brethren are doing the same, except in the direction of hyperbole, massively misleading the public about the trustworthiness of scientific theories. It is not denied that some are trustworthy; any suggestion that they all are is the stuff of 1984.


Germs cause disease. Very probable they are, with a tiny chance we're rather in a simulation where it only looks that way.

I personally don't have a problem with the germ theory of disease, indeed it may be virtually inconceivable to us that it could be wrong. What I have pointed out, though, is that we've been in the same situation before, and have been quite wrong (geocentrism, aether, et al), at least as judged by modern lights. As Dave himself adverted to, (some of) the finest physicists of the 19th century felt the entire book of physics was more or less closed. And it doesn't take a Matrix scenario or a Cartesian demon for us to be hopelessly wrong about these things, a conceptual revolution will do the trick -- not a particularly rare occurrence at all.

Every generation assumes a privileged position for itself, much as it was assumed that our planet occupied a privileged position in the cosmos. "Boy, these folks a few hundred years ago, so certain of themselves, sure had some primitive ideas." You don't think the same will be said of ourselves in, say, five hundred years or so?

Personally, I can think of few safer bets.


Facts? Of course we construct them. Reality is a whole. Facts are lean, carefully sculpted propositions (employing language and math) about particular parts of that whole.

I'd say it's a very peculiar way of stating matters.

I'd note first that we do indeed create some facts, what John Searle refers to as "institutional facts" - money, property, marriage, etc. It is generally held that we do not create the brute facts of the world. To say as much is to endorse constructivism, a view regarded as preposterous by every scientist I've heard opine on the matter.

You are aware, of course, of the so-called "correspondence theory of truth". On this view, a proposition is true insofar as it corresponds with the facts. The proposition (our creation) "The Earth is round", say, is true if and only if it is a fact (none of our doing) that the Earth is round(ish). Facts of the world -- or states of affairs out there in reality, if you prefer, which are not of our making -- decide whether assertions we make about these states of affairs are true or not.

Frank Sinatra's (tempestuous!) marriage to Ava Gardner was a fact constructed by ourselves. So is every other marriage. There was no fact of marriage between dinosaurs inasmuch as they lacked the cognitive and linguistic resources to create such facts. Or so we shall assume until they start digging up T-rex prenups.

But is it really your position that the sphericity of the Earth is not only a fact, but a fact that we have created?

Is it possible you're confusing a fact with a statement of that fact?


Well, except for Doug Adams "42."

I do believe I'm the only person in the world who never read the book or saw the TV series. My work here is far too important.
 
P.S. How would readers feel about an official declaration from Creationist headquarters . . .

"We hereby concede that evolution is a fact, but it is a fact that scientists have constructed . .. by their own admission. In other words, they made it up."
 
Well, there's plenty of discussion of semantics in the thread, perhaps boring to some people who feel "It's just semantics. Yawn!". Of course, when it is asserted that evolution is just a theory, perhaps by someone influential like Ronald Reagan, the same members are liable to be far less phlegmatic.
I think this is a disingenuous comparison.

The entire direction of this thread is that the the various uses of the word theory are NOT semantic.



And it doesn't take a Matrix scenario or a Cartesian demon for us to be hopelessly wrong about these things, a conceptual revolution will do the trick -- not a particularly rare occurrence at all.
Throwing the baby out with the bathwater fallacy.


Just because a couple of carefully chosen scientists a century and a half ago thought there wasn't much more to learn does not mean all our modern theories are built on quicksand.

We are way, way more sophisticated about scientific rigour than we were back then.

QM and relativity are two of the most thoroughly experimentally tested mechanics in the history of science.

I find this disingenuous as well. I also find it well off topic and into waxing philosophical about your beliefs in science. Are we on topic, or are we just blogging our musings now?
 
Nonetheless, we can't unfind atoms, germs or evolution.

Perhaps we won't; perhaps we will.

Those inculcated with cladistics see a dinosaur on their Thanksgiving dinner table. They would affirm each of "I see a turkey", "I see a bird", and "I see a [particular clade of] dinosaur".

It's the same as you seeing both an ape and a human when you look at Donald Trump, say, assuming you take the cladistic stance: humans are apes.

As soon as cladistics falls from grace, and perhaps evolutionary taxonomy (à la Ernst Mayr) is revived, the very same people will no longer report seeing a dinosaur. The dinosaur has been "unfound".

No doubt we see something in that photo of yours. What we see, however, depends on the conceptual baggage we bring to the observation. Show the pic to a child. I pretty much guarantee she will not say "Oh look! Atoms!"

As Einstein said, "It is the theory that decides what is observed."
 
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QM and relativity are two of the most thoroughly experimentally tested mechanics in the history of science.

Yes, they are. And it's not at all uncommon to hear physicists assert -- with appropriate modesty and good sense -- that it's likely they will be superseded in the future.

Now, if that goes for the very best theories we have, what about all the rest?
 
I find this disingenuous as well. I also find it well off topic and into waxing philosophical about your beliefs in science. Are we on topic, or are we just blogging our musings now?

I do not appreciate my integrity being impugned, Dave. If you're bored, go somewhere else.
 
I do not appreciate my integrity being impugned, Dave. If you're bored, go somewhere else.
It doesn't work that way. This is not your personal blog. This thread has a topic, and I get to call you out if you appear to be just meandering.
 
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