UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

Not to put too fine a point on it but recall that the reality is that it is, objectively, the default position.

The officials and fans alike recognize that 99.99% of UAPs are "weather balloon, Venus, airplane, etc."

That is not a matter of "mind already made up"; that is the objectively accurate perspective.

What we are concentrating on is the one-in-ten thousand scenarios where the evidence might so compelling that it cannot be a mundane object.
So, in other words, there is a huge gap between what some might want to believe and accepting what some of the evidence (or all of it) actually suggests.

What is most important (to me), is following with caution, the ''evidence'' that we have to examine, while being mindful to not examine it with pre-conceived notions. On the flip side, UAP enthusiasts need to accept that when presented with strong, skeptical rebuttals that seem more plausible than their claims, their evidence is simply not as extraordinary as they'd like to believe. Both sides need to give the other some grace.
 
...being mindful to not examine it with pre-conceived notions....
My point is that it is not "pre-conceived notions".

9,999 horses have already stampeded past our doors.
Not one of them has ever been an actual zebra.
Then we hear another set of hoof beats. Fans say "compelling evidence for a zebra - this time for sure!"
Skeptics are gonna - rightfully - say: "Show me some stripes and then we'll talk".
 
My point is that it is not "pre-conceived notions".

9,999 horses have already stampeded past our doors.
Not one of them has ever been an actual zebra.
Then we hear another set of hoof beats. Fans say "compelling evidence for a zebra - this time for sure!"
Skeptics are gonna - rightfully - say: "Show me some stripes and then we'll talk".

Preconceived notions would be going into every scenario that you present above, with ''why bother entertaining this; it's you know who again, always pushing the idea that there's evidence for a zebra.''

That's kind of what has been happening in this thread, imo. Maybe our observations differ.
 
...it's you know who again, always pushing the idea that there's evidence for a zebra.'
You're putting the responsibility for that on us? Why not put it where it belongs?

upload_2022-11-4_13-13-33-png.5132
 
Not trying to be contentious, but what is the source of that estimate? I thought it was around 90%.
Fair enough. My assertion is currently unconfirmed.

It'd be good to nail this number down for posterity. I guess the number also depends on who one considers the authority and how up-to-date it is.
 
You're putting the responsibility for that on us? Why not put it where it belongs?

upload_2022-11-4_13-13-33-png.5132
We all have to own our biases. I don't expect MR to have to overcome my bias in order for me to take his claims seriously. For example, I don't believe that aliens are visiting Earth, if they exist at all. But, I still look at every claim with an open mind, despite that opinion.

Can you provide some examples of cases where (regardless of our commentary of MR) we have dismissed them out-of-hand without sufficient analysis?
It's not that some skeptics here dismiss them without sufficient analysis, it's that they approach the analysis already confirmed that there's ''nothing new to see here'' that MR is offering, in the way of ''evidence.''

Just watch for it, as the thread continues onward, and MR presents more claims.
 
Last edited:
"For every unexplained sighting, there are dozens that turn out to be military flares, weird cloud formations, weather phenomena or elaborate hoaxes. For instance, GEPAN's database suggests that only 7 percent of all supposed UFO sightings are truly unexplained."--- https://www.livescience.com/61243-mysterious-ufo-sightings.html

When Project Bluebook concluded itself in the 60's, it had investigated 12,000 cases of ufos. Of these, it concluded around 700 remain unexplained. J. Allen Hynek and James Mcdonald, the two scientists on the committee, said that number was too low, suggesting it was closer to 3000. That's a quarter of all reportings!
 
Last edited:
We all have to own our biases. I don't expect MR to have to overcome my bias in order for me to take his claims seriously.
It's not about the claims; it's about the evidence. I don't think any of our more serious analysts here have turned their backs on a case simply because of who presented it. It's invariably flimsy excuses for evidence that makes them easily dismissible. eg. Objects "doing circles in the sky" is not much to analyze. Planes do that.

But I think it's still important to point out the onus is still not on us to not "dismiss a case". It's the other way around - it's not a case at all until sufficient evidence causes it to rise above the background noise.



I'm not trying to argue you into silence; I just think your stance on the issue - though you've rephrased it several ways - is placing responsibility in the wrong place.
 
Last edited:
It's not about the claims; it's about the evidence. I don't think any of our more serious analysts here have turned their backs on a case simply because of who presented it. It's invariably flimsy excuses for evidence that makes them easily dismissible. eg. Objects "doing circles in the sky" is not much to analyze. Planes do that.

But I think it's still important to point out the onus is still not on us to not "dismiss a case". It's the other way around - it's not a case at all until sufficient evidence causes it to rise above the background noise.
Okay, wait. Are we talking about what we'd consider to be cases worth analyzing?
 
"For every unexplained sighting, there are dozens that turn out to be military flares, weird cloud formations, weather phenomena or elaborate hoaxes. For instance, GEPAN's database suggests that only 7 percent of all supposed UFO sightings are truly unexplained."--- https://www.livescience.com/61243-mysterious-ufo-sightings.html

When Project Bluebook concluded itself in the 60's, it had investigated 12,000 cases of ufos. Of these, it concluded around 700 remain unexplained. J. Allen Hynek and James Mcdonald, the two scientists on the committee, said that number was too low, suggesting it was closer to 3000. That's a quarter of all reportings!
I'd imagine things have changed a lot since then, largely due to the internet. The ability to share information has made this topic explode, in some ways, for the better...but there's definitely a dark side to it all. Too much information (in the wrong hands?) can make people reckless.
 
I'm not trying to argue you into silence; I just think your stance on the issue - though you've rephrased it several ways - is placing responsibility in the wrong place.
I know; no worries. We're just discussing.

I feel like this thread is a board game, and we are at page 384 of the instruction manual, still not quite sure of the ''rules.'' lol
 
Okay, wait. Are we talking about what we'd consider to be cases worth analyzing?
I dunno anymore. All I hear is you saying the skeptics here are dismissing cases because of who is posting them, rather than because there's nothing to analyze.
Since I have no examples of that, I can't exactly debunk it.
So I guess I leave the onus on you to show that that is a problem we're having here before I can address it.
 
I dunno anymore. All I hear is you saying the skeptics here are dismissing cases because of who is posting them, rather than because there's nothing to analyze.
Since I have no examples of that, I can't exactly debunk it.
So I guess I leave the onus on you to show that that is a problem we're having here before I can address it.

Okay, I'll look for ''evidence,'' and will post it when I find it.
 
Not trying to be contentious, but what is the source of that estimate? I thought it was around 90%. [prosaic answers, identifiable, etc]

Studies: "Fewer than 10% of reported sightings remain unexplained after proper investigation and therefore can be classified as unidentified in the strictest sense."

That seems to reference Steven Novella; and a SciAm article from 2011 indirectly suggests something of that order after Leslie Kean's "roughly 90 to 95 percent of UFO sightings can be explained" as ordinary things is subtracted.

Problem is, what is the background of that -- what's their source, in order to avoid a "just so" number that floats in the community, passed from one maven to another.

The last(?) French endeavor, long after Project Blue Book closed, assessed the unexplained at 14%. Perhaps that's part of the ancestry of the proportion that these individuals dispense. Accounts of the UK's Project Condign are threadbare with respect to providing figures.

"The result of the monumental BMI study was echoed by a 1979 French GEPAN report which stated that about a quarter of over 1,600 closely studied UFO cases defied explanation, stating, in part, "These cases ... pose a real question." When GEPAN's successor SEPRA closed in 2004, 5800 cases had been analyzed, and the percentage of inexplicable unknowns had dropped to about 14%."
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Blue_Book#Project_Blue_Book_Special_Report_No._14

Back to Novella: ". . . the null hypothesis cannot be excluded; that these reports are simply other more prosaic phenomena that cannot be identified due to lack of complete information or due to the necessary subjectivity of the reports. Novella says that instead of accepting the null hypothesis, UFO enthusiasts tend to engage in special pleading..."

Michael Shermer: "In all fields of science there is a residue of anomalies unexplained by the dominant theory. That does not mean the prevailing theory is wrong or that alternative theories are right. It just means that more work needs to be done to bring those anomalies into the accepted paradigm. In the meantime, it is okay to live with the uncertainty that not everything has an explanation."

In essence, reasoning that has preferences and a priori goals in which any lingering square pegs can eventually be sculpted to fit round holes. But their rivals on the other side have inclusive cognitive filters that would generously bring many of the round pegs back into the square fold on X, Y, Z interpretative grounds.

So for the high-spirited buffs, it's actually better for them to have a _#_ percent that's the defiant residue of exclusionary driven investigation, than a similar proportion left by lax standards. As the latter would almost surely be deceptively inflated to some extent -- a soft wood to whittle down rather than a hard one.
 
Last edited:
James R said: "Making something up because you can't bear not to know is where there's a problem. And that is exactly what MR and his peers do, each and every time."

That's quite a claim. That we make something up "each and every time". Unlike you and short of saying you're lying, I'll just say you are playing fast and loose with the truth.

In point of fact I am quite content to not know what uaps are. It doesn't unsettle me in the least that they defy explanation at the present time. Most my life I have faced the unknown in various forms. I have learned to live in the ambiguity. It's how I remain open to the truth rather than shutting it out with some pet theory or simplistic rationalization.
 
Last edited:
wegs:
Agree with pretty much everything you’re saying here, but if we’re (you’re) honest, there are times when the quick dismissal of MR’s claims isn’t because he didn’t provide convincing enough evidence; it’s more that your mind was already made up and so “it’s likely a weather balloon, etc…” became/becomes the default position.
No!

How many times do I need to say it, wegs? My mind really isn't made up. I'm very happy to follow the evidence wherever it may lead.

MR doesn't provide convincing enough evidence. He has never provided convincing enough evidence. If he had done so, this thread would have long ago moved on from where it's stuck. Yes, MR is convinced, but he was convinced long before he saw any evidence at all. Nothing he has said has convinced anybody else here that there's an advanced aquatic species making tic tacs at the bottom of the Atlantic ocean. (Are you convinced of that? Of course you aren't.)

If you insist on trying to estimate the a priori likelihood that a given UFO will turn out to be a weather balloon, as opposed to a super-advanced alien from the bottom of the Atlantic, then any fair analysis (given our current state of knowledge) would put the weather balloon as thousands of times more likely than the alien spaceship. But here's the thing: it doesn't matter. We don't need to try to estimate probabilities. We can concentrate, instead, on what we know from the available evidence. Does the evidence we have in any way point to a super-advanced aquatic civilisation? Clearly, it does not. Therefore, to claim that "the explanation" is a super-advanced aquatic civilisation is to take a random flight of fancy for no supportable reason. Again, this is not to say that some convincing evidence of a super-advanced aquatic civilisation could not possibly be discovered tomorrow, or next week, or 10 years from now. When and if that happens, then we might need to revise our working hypothesis that the UFO will probably turn out to be mundane.
All I’m saying is, we need to be mindful that we bring biases into these discussions and those biases can create blind spots. For skeptics and UAP enthusiasts, alike.
Some "biases" are more defensible than others. If every swan you've ever seen is white, it is sensible to tentatively assume that the next swan you see will very probably be white, too. This bias is based on the available evidence and an assumption that the universe displays regularities. On the other hand, it would not be at all sensible, for a number of reasons, to think that the next swan you see will very likely be purple with yellow polka-dots.

Again (since it seems necessary to say this every time), this doesn't mean that it is impossible that we'll see a purple polka-dotted swan at some time in the future. In fact, there are lots of black swans along with the white ones - a fact that was not recognised, especially in the Northern hemisphere, for quite some time. But it still wasn't wrong to expect that the next swan would probably be white. The science of swan colours quickly self-corrected to admit the idea of black swans just as soon as there was sufficient evidence to confirm their existence, beyond reasonable doubt.

Note, also, there was never a conspiracy of swan skeptics to suppress knowledge of the existence of black swans. There was no secret government agency going around collecting black swans and locking them away in a swan equivalent of Area 51, because the knowledge of black swans was considered too dangerous for ordinary mortal men to cope with. Also, there weren't any scientists who were terrified by the idea that a black swan might possibly exist. Nobody was afraid his comfortable scientific world view would undergo catastrophic collapse if ever somebody produced a reliable photograph of a black swan.
 
Sarkus:
And I disagree. This thread is not about what MR thinks, or why he thinks.
Or whether he thinks...
It's about what we all think. You focus too much by far on MR, to the point of fixation.
Like it or not, MR is the main source of "new" UFO cases in this thread.

I am not about to waste my time trawling through the UFO faniverse looking for a moderately-puzzling case. That's like searching for a needle in a huge messy haystack.

But MR assures us that he is filtering out only the very best of the best cases and presenting them for our consideration. Now, I think that's bullshit, since MR has no filtering skills to speak of. But still, I do find some of the cases he presents to be a moderately-diverting puzzle-solving challenge. They are a way to pass some time and exercise the skeptical brain cells.
Ignore what MR thinks. Simples.
Then, and here's a cunning thing we can do: ignore him. Choose not to reply to him.
That wouldn't be nearly as much fun. MR provides an excellent and instructive example, I find, for just how badly a religion-like faith can cause one to fail, over and over again. I enjoy pointing that out to interested readers - particularly ones who might be on the fence about the "reality" of alien visitation etc.
Examine the cases he (or anyone else) puts up and come to your own conclusions, or discuss other people's (not MR's).
I have examined many of the cases he has put forward. I have stated my tentative conclusions in many cases.
You're a mod, so I guess you have that side of your remit, sure. But in doing so, at least in the way you do, you ruin what the thread is about, by continually sidetracking it to be about MR, and continually trying to change what you know won't be changed.
I don't expect MR to change. That train left the station years ago. There are other people here who have open minds, however.
You don't like what he says? Ignore it. Why continue to bang your head against a wall in this thread about it? If you want to discuss why MR believes what he does, or why people more generally believe what they do, set up a thread for it. But continually sidetracking this thread and turning it to what you think are MR's issues... well, is it worth ruining a thread for that?
You seem to have this perception that we'd all be busily solving UFO cases if it wasn't for me making an example of MR and his nonsenses. You wouldn't be. You're not out there on the interwebs tracking down UFO reports, any more than I am. You're only commenting on the cases MR brings to the table, same as me.

What's going on here, mostly, is that MR posts a "new" case and it is almost immediately dealt with by yourself and others. Almost invariably, significant holes in the evidence and claims are uncovered by the competent people here almost immediately. Since nobody on the UFO fanboy team ever has a good argument in defence of the alien hypothesis (or whatever), most cases are quickly dealt with and left as dubious (even if not definitely "solved") and unconvincing. Then, you have to wait until MR's careful (!) curation of youtube throws up the next doubtful UFO example.

This means there's quite a lot of dead time in this thread. Since MR is useless for counter-arguments and practically useless at making any sort of case in support of whatever it is he actually believes about UFOs, that "waiting time" tends to get filled with meta-discussion about, for example, just why MR is so terrible an advocate for his own beliefs.

This is not off-topic. The question of why, in an educated western nation like the United States, so many people are so bad at critical thinking, so ready to be sucked into various conspiracy vortices, so distrustful of their own governors, etc., is very relevant to the UFO topic. MR, being perhaps the only hard-core UFO fanboy here, makes an excellent subject for study.
So what!? Ignore him! Look at the cases he puts forward but then ignore his analysis. You know he "keeps telling [lies], knowingly and deliberately" so ignore him.
Actually, we have rules against that here.

You might be interested to know that MR, in his time here, has accumulated more than 70 official warnings for various breaches of our site rules. He has been pegged several times for knowingly telling lies. He almost got to the point of being permanently banned, but he has learned to back off until his warning points expire.

You might well ask why I haven't just permabanned MR by now. He is incorrigible, after all. If I was Tiassa, probably he'd be gone by now. But I believe there is value to be had in showing how this sort of person operates. Like I said, he is an excellent example.
Then this thread can get back to what it was/should be, and not what you turn it to.
Maybe you should think about what you could do to make it all that you wish it to be. Mostly, it looks to me like you're just reactive, like the rest of us. Also, see what's happening in this latest lull? Even you have opted for the meta-discussion, while you wait for MR's next Q drop.
I know that, you know that, and MR knows that. So what? You're fixated on him. You seem to have turned this into "The MR Show" for so long that even now you're being critical that he's not the focus, or himself done anything interesting. That's all on you and your perspective, which is warped due to your apparent fixation.
You don't have a very good grasp of my motivations. Maybe you should do you. Just a thought.
But since he's the only one who really puts forward any cases for analysis, I'd say that's something. If you want to put up cases, no one is stopping you, are they?
I don't want to.
Or can you only ever be critical, like Waldorf and Statler. Although at least they're amusing. Have you posted any videos of cases here for analysis?
Actually, now that you mention it, a while back I started a nice little discussion about a rather famous historical UFO case, which I investigated reasonably extensively at the time (I had some spare time). My thread on that case made for an illuminating tutorial on how to conduct a UFO investigation properly, and my conclusions in that case are persuasive. You might like to search it up. It's a great read.
 
Back
Top