UFOs (UAPs): Explanations?

Moderator note: Magical Realist has been warned for trolling.

Due to accumulated warning points, MR will be taking an extended break from sciforums once again.
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It was unwise of MR to double down on the same offence that got him a one week ban last time around, by posting his post #9333, above, followed by #9338.

That post demonstrates no understanding on his part about why he was warned last time, despite my careful explanation to him in private messaging and despite a conversation we had about that there. Instead, he chose to come back and straight away claim that he was not trolling. It also demonstrates no repetence on his part and no desire to change his behaviour.

This, however, is not why he finds himself banned again.

This time around, MR falsely accused DaveC of losing an argument and then "crying troll" because he lost the argument. His aim was clearly to try to provoke an angry reaction from DaveC, and to lie to other readers about DaveC and to make false claims about said "argument" that he falsely claims that DaveC lost. Both of these acts constitute trolling, as well as breaching our site posting guidelines relating to knowingly telling lies.

It is monumentally stupid for him to claim that he was banned for "no reason" when the reason is posted clear as day in this thread and was discussed with him at some length in private messaging. The whole "no reason" thing is just one more lie, knowingly told.

So, we might see more of MR next year. Perhaps there is a new year's resolution he could consider adding to his list.
 
It’s those ‘Speeding balloons’ again. Or, wow look at how this uap ascends and descends so quickly.

This is a good example of movement of drone and camera.

So what is it?
 
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foghorn said:
It’s those ‘Speeding balloons’ again. Or, wow look at how this uap ascends and descends so quickly.

This is a good example of movement of drone and camera.

So what is it?
Click to expand...
That's a pretty impressive analysis.
It is alarming (even to me, who is familiar with drones) just how convincingly a target can appear to exhibit complex or intelligent movement, when in fact, it is the camera doing the moving.

All video sightings after the advent of drones will need to be passed through the "drone artifact" filter before they can be cartgorized as anomalous.

Playing Devils' Advocate, since MR is not here: this does not prove that the flying orb videos are due to drone movement - i.e. the orbs are not technically debunked - it simply proves one more (albeit compelling) alternate mundane explanation.

But what it does do is remove the flying orb videos from the arsenal of those who would say "there's 'definitely' something happening in our skies that needs explaining."
 
DaveC426913 said:
That's a pretty impressive analysis.
It is alarming (even to me, who is familiar with drones) just how convincingly a target can appear to exhibit complex or intelligent movement, when in fact, it is the camera doing the moving.

All video sightings after the advent of drones will need to be passed through the "drone artifact" filter before they can be cartgorized as anomalous.

Playing Devils' Advocate, since MR is not here: this does not prove that the flying orb videos are due to drone movement - i.e. the orbs are not technically debunked - it simply proves one more (albeit compelling) alternate mundane explanation.
But what it does do is remove the flying orb videos from the arsenal of those who would say "there's 'definitely' something happening in our skies that needs explaining."
Click to expand...
Exactly, each uap event should be individually analysed.
 
foghorn said:
Exactly, each uap event should be individually analysed.
Click to expand...
Indeed. It completely upends the "silver orb" videos that are currently the hotness (including earlier in this thread).


Looking at it with fresh eyes, there is no way to conclude that the object in the video is moving at all. It is quite consistent with a stationary object, such as a balloon, being recorded by a moving drone.

(By the way, there is no indication the orbs are "silver" either. Look at the contrast of other things in the backgroud of the scene. Very bright highlights, very dark shadows. Unless everything on the ground is "silver", it's apparent that the UAP is not necessarily silver at all. It could be white, or black. It could be sky blue and practically invisible from the ground.)


The one in the analysis is, in fact, a balloon (positive ID)
upload_2023-12-19_12-30-9.png
And it is shown to be quite blatantly moving back and forth - rapidly and seemingly with purpose.
(see 4:10 - 4:30 in video)

upload_2023-12-19_13-25-16.png

The analysis in that video should be a cautionary tale about just how convincingly-strange things can appear - and yet still be mundane. It is testmant to the fact that even high quality, sharp, colour video can and does "lie".

I can hear the echo of MR's LOL: "balloons usually don't reverse direction and act as if under control".



Drones provide unprecedented zoom and stability footage that makes it difficult to interpret with traditional experience. Which means UFO enthusiats would do well to be even more cautious of over-reaching with their conclusions on erstwhile "compelling" cases.
 
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You know, it sure would be nice of the UAP enthusiasts here on this board would come out of hiding and make even a passing attempt at any hard analysis to back up their claims, as opposed to just rhetoric...

We skeptics are showing a superhuman degree of tolerance for all the rhetoric that comes from the enthusiast camp. I sure hear a lot of sizzle, but so far, no bacon.
 
DaveC426913 said:
You know, it sure would be nice of the UAP enthusiasts here on this board would come out of hiding and make even a passing attempt at any hard analysis to back up their claims, as opposed to just rhetoric...

We skeptics are showing a superhuman degree of tolerance for all the rhetoric that comes from the enthusiast camp. I sure hear a lot of sizzle, but so far, no bacon.
Click to expand...
I think they would much more like to talk about Mick West misleading people by sowing seeds of doubt, rather than showing where Mick is wrong in any of his analysis of uap events.
And the other things they like to chat on about... What do we actually mean by the word 'evidence' and why we should trust an eyewitness.
In other words, uaps are just too mysterious to analyse, so let talk about meanings of words instead.
 
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The best thing to come out of 2023 uap wise imo is the Navy streamlining and making easier the uap reporting process and helping to reduce the stigma surrounding them. Ex-Navy pilots such as Dave Fravor and Ryan Graves should be especially commended for their courageous testimony and their holding to their compelling eyewitness accounts of uaps. The creation of and additional reporting from the AARO about uaps and their commonly witnessed characteristics provides further validation of the importance of continued research into the uap phenomenon. Just having a respectful dialogue about them is definitely progress over the old standard Blue Book approach of military-led debunkery and mockery and cover-ups.
 
It’s a pity those "whistleblowers" never and still have not taken the invite from Kirkpatrick to provide their "evidence" to the AARO.


Article by Sean Kirkpatrick in Scientific American.
Two days old.
He explains one of the reasons he stepped down last December.

January 19, 2024
" As of the time of my departure, none, let me repeat, none of the conspiracy-minded “whistleblowers” in the public eye had elected to come to AARO to provide their “evidence” and statement for the record despite numerous invitations. Anyone that would rather be sensationalist in the public eye than bring their evidence to the one organization established in law with all of the legal process and security framework established to protect them, their privacy, and the information and to investigate and report out findings is suspect. "

"Carl Sagan popularized the maxim that “extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence.” This advice should not be optional for policy makers. In today’s world of misinformation, conspiracy driven decision-making and sensationalist-dominated governance, our capacity for rational, evidence-based critical thinking is eroding, with deleterious consequences for our ability to effectively deal with multiplying challenges of ever increasing complexity.

As director of the Department of Defense’s All-Domain Anomaly Resolution Office (AARO), charged by Congress in 2022 to help bring science-based clarity and resolution to the long-standing mystery surrounding credible observations of unidentified anomalous phenomena (UAP), also known as UFOs, I experienced this erosion up close and personal. And it was one factor in my decision to step down from my position last December."

" The conspiracists’ story goes something like this: The U.S. has been hiding and attempting to reverse engineer as many as 12 UAP/UFOs from as early as the 1960s and perhaps earlier. This great cover-up and conspiracy failed to produce any salient results, and consequently the effort was abandoned to some private sector defense contractors to continue the work. Sometime later, the story continues, those private sector contractors wanted to bring the whole program back under U.S. government (USG) auspices. Apparently, the CIA stopped this supposed transfer back to the USG. All of this is without substantiating evidence, but, alas, belief in a statement is directly proportional to the volume in which it is transmitted and the number of times it is repeated, not the actual facts.
During a full-scale, year-long investigation of this story (which has been told and retold by a small group of interconnected believers and others with possibly less than honest intentions—none of whom have firsthand accounts of any of this), AARO discovered a few things, and none were about aliens. "
Read on...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-i-learned-as-the-u-s-governments-ufo-hunter/
 
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foghorn said:
[...] Read on...

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-i-learned-as-the-u-s-governments-ufo-hunter/
Click to expand...

As expected, part of the mythology stems from "ordinary" special access programs where the only shared trait with "alien bodies/tech conspiracies" is the secrecy.

"The report demonstrates that many of the circulating allegations described above derive from inadvertent or unauthorized disclosures of legitimate U.S. programs or related R&D that have nothing to do with extraterrestrial issues or technology. Some are misrepresentations, and some derive from pure, unsupported beliefs. In many respects, the narrative is a textbook example of circular reporting, with each person relaying what they heard, but the information often ultimately being sourced to the same small group of individuals."​

And this "new era of investigation" is also predictably dashing the naïve hopes of enthusiasts, bit by bit, just as Project Blue Book and earlier Project Sign did.
_
 
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C C said:
As expected, part of the mythology stems from "ordinary" special access programs where the only shared trait with "alien bodies/tech conspiracies" is the secrecy.

"The report demonstrates that many of the circulating allegations described above derive from inadvertent or unauthorized disclosures of legitimate U.S. programs or related R&D that have nothing to do with extraterrestrial issues or technology. Some are misrepresentations, and some derive from pure, unsupported beliefs. In many respects, the narrative is a textbook example of circular reporting, with each person relaying what they heard, but the information often ultimately being sourced to the same small group of individuals."​

And this "new era of investigation" is also predictably dashing the naïve hopes of enthusiasts, bit by bit, just as Project Blue Book and earlier Project Sign did.
_
Click to expand...

Yes, now we have to wait for that AARO report.
"One of my last acts before retiring was to sign AARO’s Historical Record Report Volume 1, which is currently being prepared for delivery to Congress and the public. The report demonstrates that many of the circulating allegations described above derive from inadvertent or unauthorized disclosures of legitimate U.S. programs or related R&D that have nothing to do with extraterrestrial issues or technology. "
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/heres-what-i-learned-as-the-u-s-governments-ufo-hunter/
 
Tic tac report: SOLVED!

423675245_782332433935233_4611822179116979925_n.jpg
 
Ukrainian drone captures video of a disc-shaped or cylindrical UAP. Doesn't look like any conventional craft. Soldiers' audio comments express surprise that it isn't moving and that it has no thermal signature.

"The Daily Mail, which said it originally exclusively obtained the footage, said it was captured in February by Ukraine's 406th Battalion using one of the over 300 "heat vision" quadcopter drones used by Kyiv's military. It was flying more than 500 feet above sea level when soldiers spotted the mysterious object, which the publication estimated to be some 30 miles away.

Newsweek could not independently verify the authenticity of the video and has contacted the Ukrainian Defense Ministry via email."--- https://www.newsweek.com/mystery-ufo-spotted-drone-ukraine-war-1874156


https://twitter.com/albafella1/status/1762636576331370651
 
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AARO Volume 1 Report
Section two interesting.

" SECTION II: Executive Summary
AARO found no evidence that any USG investigation, academic-sponsored research,
or official review panel has confirmed that any sighting of a UAP represented extraterrestrial
technology. All investigative efforts, at all levels of classification, concluded that most sightings
were ordinary objects and phenomena and the result of misidentification. Although not the focus
of this report, it is worthwhile to note that all official foreign UAP investigatory efforts to date
have reached the same general conclusions as USG investigations.
• Although many UAP reports remain unsolved or unidentified, AARO assesses that if
more and better quality data were available, most of these cases also could be
identified and resolved as ordinary objects or phenomena. Sensors and visual
observations are imperfect; the vast majority of cases lack actionable data or the data
available is limited or of poor quality.
• Resources and staffing for these programs largely have been irregular and sporadic,
challenging investigatory efforts and hindering effective knowledge transfer.
• The vast majority of reports almost certainly are the result of misidentification and a
direct consequence of the lack of domain awareness; there is a direct correlation
between the amount and quality of available information on a case with the ability to
conclusively resolve it.

AARO found no empirical evidence for claims that the USG and private companies
have been reverse-engineering extraterrestrial technology. AARO determined, based on all
information provided to date, that claims involving specific people, known locations,
technological tests, and documents allegedly involved in or related to the reverse-engineering
of extraterrestrial technology, are inaccurate. Additional claims will be addressed in Volume
II. AARO successfully located the USG and industry programs, officials, companies,
executives, and documents identified by interviewees. In many cases, the interviewees named
authentic USG classified programs well-known and understood to those appropriately accessed
to them in the Executive Branch and Legislative Branch; however, the interviewees mistakenly
associated these authentic USG programs with alien and extraterrestrial activity. AARO has
reached the following, high confidence conclusions related to:

• UAP Nondisclosure Agreements (NDA): AARO has found no evidence of any
authentic UAP-related NDA or other evidence threatening death or violence for
disclosing UAP information.
8
• A CIA Official Allegedly Managed UAP Experimentation: The named, former
CIA official was not involved in the movement of extraterrestrial technology. The
same former CIA officer signed a memo rejecting a claim made by interviewees that "
Read on...
https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/AARO_Historical_Record_Report_Volume_1_2024.pdf
 
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foghorn said:
AARO Volume 1 Report
Section two interesting.

" SECTION II: Executive Summary
AARO found no evidence that any USG investigation, academic-sponsored research,
or official review panel has confirmed that any sighting of a UAP represented extraterrestrial
technology. All investigative efforts, at all levels of classification, concluded that most sightings
were ordinary objects and phenomena and the result of misidentification. Although not the focus
of this report, it is worthwhile to note that all official foreign UAP investigatory efforts to date
have reached the same general conclusions as USG investigations.

• Although many UAP reports remain unsolved or unidentified, AARO assesses that if
more and better quality data were available, most of these cases also could be
identified and resolved as ordinary objects or phenomena. Sensors and visual
observations are imperfect; the vast majority of cases lack actionable data or the data
available is limited or of poor quality...

[...] https://www.aaro.mil/Portals/136/PDFs/AARO_Historical_Record_Report_Volume_1_2024.pdf
Click to expand...

That's that, then.

No surprise that these inquiries have arguably "concluded" pretty much the same as past investigations of UFOs by government.

The paranormal community will ignore this report and continue to reference media material, personal testimonies, and tentative considerations that "experts" made in the former decade and during the earlier part of this one.

In contrast, the conspiracy community will acknowledge the report, but declare that it expected such due to the determination conforming to either a priori beliefs of the establishment or to its secrecy mandates and disinformation protocols (i.e., espousing that the conclusions were set in advance). Kafka Trap: equivalent denial of _X_ (via critical evaluation and research) is proof of _X_.
_
 
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Ah. I finally found it! I"ve been looking for this chart.

This was an attempt to come to a forum consensus on how to categorize the possible origins of UAPS so that we can agree on terminology of what we are talking about.
I think it's covered all the bases, and I think it's logically organized on a scale of exotically.


upload_2024-3-26_16-31-18.png



For the sake of completeness, I suppose I could add God as a subset of Alien - as the most distant exotic and alien origin.

upload_2024-3-26_16-40-13.png
 
March 25th cellphone video catch of a uap by a passenger on a plane near a NY airport. The uap is very fast and the video is slowed down to allow examination. The shape appears to be disc-like and seen from the side. There are no wings or tail rudders that a conventional aircraft would have. The sun's reflection on the uap suggests a metallic composition.

 
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