Apocalypse Soon?

Discussion in 'General Science & Technology' started by Futilitist, Jan 1, 2013.

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  1. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    billvon,

    I am not off at all. You are. Current world oil prices ($51/barrel) are not sufficient to meet the full cost of oil production. The full cost of oil production includes the cost of current oil production, plus investment in future oil production (totaling over $105+/barrel). In order to maintain a current profit, oil companies are slashing future exploration and production budgets.

    Since there is no way to lower the cost of production, you must somehow get the price of oil over $105/barrel to win the Futilitist Collapse Challenge. That would be impossible, of course. That is the catch-22 I want you to appreciate.

    I am not interested in playing stupid word games with you, billvon. I have a very serious physics model to present that took a team of physicists thousands of man hours to produce. It really is a game changer in terms of understanding the timing of collapse. If you don't want to know about it, fine. But please don't disrupt. This is a serious discussion.

    I don't see why everyone so strongly objects to the fact that the current price of oil is not sufficient to meet the full cost of oil production. It is just a simple fact. And it is hilarious to see people strongly object to a complex physics model they haven't even seen yet.

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    ---Futilitist

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  3. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    The source of the data for the Futilitist Collapse Challenge is the price history of oil. The rest comes from the physics model I have yet to introduce because you refuse to accept some simple premises first.

    I never edited it after you posted. You probably posted before I finished editing. Calling me a liar is not cool, asshole.

    I will cite more proof than you can handle. First admit that the current price of oil is not sufficient to meet the cost of current oil production, plus investment in future production, since that is a just fact, and you know it. Thank you.


    ---Futilitist

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  5. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    The remarkable, delicious thing about this "prediction" is that it isn't a prediction, but rather a claim of fact about something that is supposed to already have happened! It was wrong even before he posted it! It's the dumbest thing I've seen online in a while.
     
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  7. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    Do I need to explain to you what a "source" is too? Provide a link that contains the actual numbers.
    You certainly edited the post (it is stamped) but I am no longer certain what was edited, when. So I retract. The mods can sort it out if they wish, since they can see the history.
    That's not how scientific discussions work. First you cite and source the facts, then they get evaluated. Given your track record, no one will trust that you didn't just make them up. But at face value, it looks pretty obviously wrong/nonsensical.

    Dead yet?
     
  8. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Ha ha. Look at the graph. The squiggly line is the oil price. Imagine that the black line represents the rising cost of world oil production. Imagine that the green line represents the oil consumer's falling ability to purchase oil. Then admit that the price of oil can never rise enough to pay the full cost of production ever again.

    Damn, Russ. Slow down. I am responding to three people rapid firing stupid questions at me. I was editing my comment to make it more clear, and you just responded before I was done again. Cool it.

    First we need to agree on the basic premise that the current price of oil is not sufficient to meet the cost of current oil production, plus investment in future production. This proper understanding of our current dilemma will then frame the rest of the discussion. It is my topic and I will introduce it any way I like, thanks.

    No, but I wish you were.


    ---Futilitist

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  9. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    "Imagine"? So you are admitting that you made-up your data and the actual source is your imagination?
    You predicted you would be: what happened?
     
  10. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    The Futilitist Collapse Challenge is a simple thought experiment. It doesn't rely on data. You can't solve it because any solution would violate the laws of physics. That is the simple point I wanted you to get. After you get that, we will get into the detailed physics model that explains how we got here and where we are headed.

    Really? I made a serious prediction that I would be dead by April, 2015? Show me.

    All the things I am presenting are completely consistent with the things I presented before. I have not made any major changes to my basic collapse theory. I have been trying to forecast the onset of collapse for many years. When we actually passed that point in June of 2014, I was able to recognize it. Later, I met the engineer, who led the team of physicists, who created a computer model of the thermodynamic life cycle of oil production, that proved I was correct all along. If you will just admit that the current price of oil is not sufficient to meet the cost of current oil production, plus investment in future production, then we can move on to the physics model.

    I learn new stuff all the time. I feel sorry for you.

    ---Futilitist

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  11. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    Ah, so it is just a fantasy, not actual data, as I thought. Game over, indeed!
     
  12. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Okay, ready or not, here we go:

    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/

    Depletion, the Fate of the Oil Age

    Only by triggering the imagination can we begin to appreciate the statement: "we live in a civilization powered by oil". If petroleum were to disappear from our lives we would no longer recognize the world in which we live; nor would we have the slightest notion of how to exist in it. For the continuance of modern society, petroleum is an essential commodity.

    To satisfy our ever expanding need for petroleum and its products, a vast interwoven worldwide work force labors arduously to extract, process, and distribute it. They work around the clock to ensure our supply. Battling against the hand maiden of resource extraction, depletion, their labors grow ever more difficult as time progresses. Each year the world's petroleum industry lifts, forces, and pumps four and one-half billion tons of water, and crude oil from almost a mile below the surface. Each year the the water portion grows larger, and the oil less. The depletion of petroleum is continuing - and it is on a relentless march toward its completion!

    Depletion is the inevitable consequence of resource extraction. As petroleum depletes it reaches a point where its ability to power the economy begins to decline; as the economy declines our ability to produce petroleum, and its products declines. The objective of this study is to determine when that point will be reached, and how the decline event will evolve.
    ...
    The world's crude reserve can be likened to a car battery. As time progresses the battery's internal irreversibilities increase due to entropy production, and we say the battery "gets weak". The internal resistance of the battery increases until the power production of the chemical processes of the battery can no longer overcome the resistance. We say the battery has "gone dead". Like the battery, the internal irreversibilities due to entropy production, of the world's crude oil production system are increasing. Higher viscosity, increasing well depth, and increasing water cut have the same effect as increasing resistance does in the battery.

    All processes approach an equilibrium state with their environment. This is called the "dead state", and represents the point where no additional work can be extracted from the system's energy. It is the point where the system's internal irreversibilities overcome the system's energy. The car battery reached the "dead state" when it permanently went "dead". So also will the world's petroleum production system.

    The "dead state" can be determined from the fundemental properties of petroleum, its cumulative production history, and a few First and Second Law statements. Once identified it can be used as a benchmark to assertain the world's crude oil depletion state. Answers to some very important questions then become available to us. Questions like:

    1) How much of the world's remaining crude oil reserve can be extracted,

    2) How long is it going to last,

    3) What is it going to cost?

    ~The Hills Group


    ---Futilitist

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    Last edited: Apr 10, 2015
  13. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_002.htm

    Depletion: A determination for the world's petroleum reserve
    Study Overview


    Scattered around the globe are 48,000 oil fields that supply the world's need for petroleum. Each field has its own unique set of characteristics - and there is considerable diversity between them. Arriving at an estimate for the remaining extractable reserve is usually attempted by adding together the quantity of petroleum believed to be present in each field. It is the number of fields, and their distinctive compositions that make an accurate determination for the depletion status of the world's petroleum reserve a challenge.

    When a field is discovered the quantity of petroleum that might be available for extraction is usually estimated by applying a very complex set of equations (the Buckley-Leverett equation, and its extrapolations). These equations require a number of initial values that are often based on the judgment of an experienced reservoir engineer. One result of this procedure is the phenomena known as reserve growth. As time progresses it is sometimes discovered that more crude oil can be extracted from a field than was originally predicted. Of course, the reservoir did not grow, it took 5.3 to 570 million years for it to form! Reserve growth occurs because there was an error in the original estimate.

    When thousands of fields are evaluated, each with its own margin of error, the result is a range of values that can vary by 50% or more. To further complicate the issue nature rarely, if ever, makes any of her creations exactly the same. Petroleum is a complex mixture of hydrocarbons, coming from a world wide distribution of fields. Eleven million tons of it are extracted daily. Yet, each barrel is assumed to be exactly like every other barrel of the 72 million produced that day. Obviously, this is an inadequate evaluation method for a commodity that is essential for the continuation of modern society.
    There are a number of methods employed by science, and engineering to help solve intractable problems. The most widely used, and dependable of these methods are those that are based on fundamental physical laws. The best method to use can often be identified by first isolating the specific characteristics of the problem. Petroleum has a very unique, and specific characteristic; it is the world's primary energy provider.

    Energy is a fundamental physical property, and for more than a century its application has been investigated by science and engineering. A vast amount of literature has been dedicated to what has been discovered, and the procedures for the application of those discoveries. To determine the status of the world's petroleum reserve "Depletion: A determination for the world's petroleum reserve" analyzes the system's energy state. This method has several advantages over the quantity measurement approach.

    The methodology employed by the study is termed "exergy" analysis. Exergy in the vernacular of the science of thermodynamics means: "the maximum amount of work that can be extracted from a system". The system under study is a unit of petroleum. The maximum amount of work that can be extracted from a unit of petroleum is calculated using the physical properties of the crude oil in question, and equations that have been derived from studies of the First and Second Law. These values are then used in the construction of a mathematical model that can predict the status of the world's petroleum reserve with a much smaller margin of error than can be provided by the quantity approach.

    The smaller error results from a much more compact model than what is produced by the quantity approach. To be implemented, the quantity approach requires the evaluation of thousands of values; usually many of them are not precisely known. The energy approach (the ETP model,Total Production Energy) requires only three. The model is derived from the fundamental physical properties of petroleum, First and Second Law statements, and the cumulative production history of petroleum. To generate values the model requires the mass of crude removed over a period of time, the mass of water removed, and the temperature of the reservoir. Although somewhat complex from a mathematical perspective, it employs only one value of which we are not very certain; that is, petroleum's production history.
    Petroleum production is a process. The process includes the extraction, processing (refining), and distribution of crude oil and its products. Each step of the process requires an input of energy to be completed. As time progresses the needed energy input increases. This occurs because of entropy production (a Second Law mandate) in the process. When the needed energy input exceeds the exergy of the petroleum, the petroleum can no longer act as an energy source. It has lost it primary value as a commodity. This is denoted as "the dead state"; the point when no additional work can be extracted from the system (a unit of petroleum).

    Entropy production results in an increase in the irreversibilities of a system. Irreversibilities are a measure of the energy cost of the processes of a system. The ETP model is a summation of the irreversibilities present in the petroleum production system over a period of time. Subtracting the irreversibilities in the system at a point in time from its exergy gives the amount of energy available to be used by the non-energy goods producing sector of the economy. The model does this on a specific (per unit) bases. The unit employed is the US gallon.

    To be of value a model must be predictive. To have confidence in its ability to predict future events with an acceptable level of certainty, it must also be capable of reproducing past events with a reasonable level of accuracy. This implies, of course, that the past events being reproduced are known with reasonable accuracy. There are few past events which have occurred in the history of petroleum production that can be stated with certainty. The one catagory for which we are almost 100% certain is its price history.
    The price of crude oil varies daily, even by the hour, but when viewed from an energy perspective its longer term value closely follows a well defined mathematical function. That mathematical function is derived from the ETP model. The price of petroleum is driven by its cost of production, and its cost of production is controlled by the energy required to produce it. This simple relationship gives a means to map the past, and future of petroleum prices. Mapped to past pricing the relationship gives an almost perfect fit. Because the model is based on First and Second Law premises future projections can be expected to perform as well as those that were applied to the past.

    The ETP model is derived from a Second Law statement, which means that it is, also, a Second Law statement. Because the model is based on First and Second Law premises, and because we have reason to have confidence in petroleum's price history, petroleum’s cumulative production history can also be determined with a level of confidence similar to that which exists for its price. The model is reliant on one variable, petroleum's cumulative production history, and this can be verified from its price history. The strength of the ETP model depends on two factors, its bases in First and Second premises, and the confidence that can be attributed to petroluem's price history.

    Optimistic estimates place the world's total petroleum reserve at 4,300 billion barrels. Of that quantity the ETP model predicts that it will be possible to extract 1,760.5 billion barrels. This constitutes 40.9% of the total reserve. This is in agreement with assessments that have been made by several noted petro-gelogists. The principal difference between the use of an energy approach, and conventional methods is that the energy approach provides for the development of a reliable predictor for petroleum's future pricing. The model shows that petroleum's ability to supply the energy needed to sustain its own production process is declining. This is experienced by the consumer as increasing price. The model demonstrates why the two events are synchronized. The ETP model adds an important, and needed element toward a deeper understanding of the depletion status of our most essential extractive commodity.

    ~The Hills Group


    ---Futilitist

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  14. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    http://www.thehillsgroup.org/depletion2_022.htm

    The Energy Factor, Part IV
    The Price of Oil


    The price of petroleum is controlled by two factors:

    1) The cost of production.
    2) The $ amount that the end consumer (the NEGs) can afford to pay for it.

    What the end consumer pays must be sufficient to cover the cost of production. All production cost must be borne by the end consumer, who includes the end buyer, and the societal cost required to produce petroleum, and its products.

    The Petroleum Price Curve, shown below, reflects the two factors that have, and will continue to control petroleum prices. The ETP derived Cost Curve is constructed from the ETP model, and has mapped the price of petroleum since 1960 with a correlation coefficient of 0.965. It is the most accurate pricing model that has ever been developed, (see report)*.

    The Maximum Consumer Price curve was also developed from the ETP model. It represents the maximum price that the end consumer can pay for petroleum. It is based on the observation that the price of a unit of petroleum can not exceed the value of the economic activity that the energy it supplies to the end consumer can generate.

    The energy content of a unit of petroleum is fixed by its molecular structure. The energy to produce a unit of petroleum, and its products increases with time as a result of the entropy production of the PPS (Petroleum Production System). The energy remaining for use by the general economy declines, and the economic activity that the petroleum can power also declines. Chart# 161 below shows the historical, and projected economic activity in 2014 dollars that a barrel of petroleum (37.5° API crude) has, and will be able to power.

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    A more complete explanation of how the Maximum Consumer Price curve was formulated is show in chart# 160 below:

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    The two Maximum affordable price curves labeled 71% (black), and 62% (light blue) are skewed logistic curves. There is no explicit mathematical equation to describe them. They are derived numerically, and the dots represent values for specific years. The 71% curve is the maximum theoretical energy that can be extracted from a unit of 37.5° API crude. Its value is derived from the combustion equations of hydrocarbons. The 62% curve is the average energy extracted from the same hydrocarbon by the end user. It passes through the ETP derived price curve at the inflection point of the ETP curve in year 2012. 2012 was the energy half way point for petroleum production. It was the year when it required one half of the energy content of petroleum to produce the petroleum, and its products.
    The individual points are generated from the equation:

    $/barrel = (Energy delivered - ETP value/ BTU/$) * 42.

    Energy delivered = 140,000 BTU/gal *0.62 (140,000 BTU/gal - the energy content of 37.5° API crude)
    ETP value is derived from the ETP function
    BTU/dollars is taken from the BTU/dollars graph - Graph# 12

    The Maximum Consumer Price curve is curtailed at 2020 at $11.76/ barrel. At this point petroleum will no longer be acting as a significant energy source for the economy. Its only function will be as an energy carrier for other sources. Production will continue as long as producers can realize the lifting costs at existing fields. E&D expenditures, and field maintenance costs will have been curtailed. All production from that point forward will be from legacy fields only. The economic impact that will result from the energy lost to the general economy is beyond the scope of this report.

    The energy content of a unit of petroleum is fixed by its molecular structure. The energy to produce a unit of petroleum, and its products increases with time as a result of the entropy production of the PPS (Petroleum Production System). The energy remaining for use by the general economy declines, and the economic activity that the petroleum can power also declines. Chart# 161 below shows the historical, and projected economic activity in 2014 dollars that a barrel of petroleum (37.5° API crude) has, and will be able to power.

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    Historically, petroleum has been a primary beneficiary to the economy. The economic activity that it powered was greater than the cost of the petroleum. Its historical effect can be seen in Graph# 25 (World GDP vs Cumulative Production). That benefit is now declining, and by the early 2020's an increased use of petroleum will no longer add to GDP. It will become more cost effective for society to begin limiting its use of petroleum as the use of petroleum transitions from a GDP enhancer to a GDP reducer.

    ~The Hills Group


    ---Futilitist

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    Last edited: Apr 10, 2015
  15. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Putting false claims in bold and repeating them does not in fact improve on the false claim, but you keep doing it. Maybe it works for you. In that case - You were wrong before and you are wrong now.

    The facts are that:
    1) Oil can be economically produced for under 105usd a barrel.
    2) When oil is over 105usd a barrel people still buy it.

    Thus there is no conflict. Once again, you were wrong before and you are wrong now.
    Again, no. You were wrong before and you are wrong now.
    I'm not objecting to any such model - I am stating quite clearly that the claims you are posted are incorrect. You were wrong before and you are wrong now.
     
    Last edited: Apr 10, 2015
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  16. Photizo Ambassador/Envoy Valued Senior Member

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  17. Billy T Use Sugar Cane Alcohol car Fuel Valued Senior Member

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    NO you only again display you gross over simplification / lack of understand. That is true of Nigerian and Venezuelan production cost, about neutral for Brazil and Canada's production cost, and still give profits to Iraq, Saudi Arabia (and Iran if they could sell oil, legally). With every post you just expose your ignorance of COMPLEX market.
     
  18. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Hey Billy T.

    Not oversimplifying. Averaging. The average world oil price is not sufficient to meet the total average cost of world oil production.

    Um, what do you think of the Etp model?


    Hi billvon.

    Your post is very childish. Of course the current price of oil is not sufficient to meet the full cost of oil production, including investment in future oil production. That is why all the oil companies are downsizing, buying back stock, and cutting investment in exploration, etc.

    What do you think of the Etp model?


    Hi Photizo.

    What are you talking about?


    ---Futilitist

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    Last edited: Apr 11, 2015
  19. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Like I said, the Futilitist Collapse Challenge is just a simple conceptual thought experiment that doesn't rely on data, because it doesn't need to. But the Etp model is another thing entirely. I have lots of data about that.

    You claimed you wanted data. I gave you data. What do you think of the Etp model?


    ---Futilitist

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    Last edited: Apr 11, 2015
  20. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Hey Futilitist,

    I haven't read the entire thread so please forgive me if I am repeating something said earlier.
    Like you I also have been puzzling over what indicator would provide the best way to indicate a pending or imminent and sustainable global financial melt down.
    I do not know enough about global economics to argue directly.
    However from a common sense perspective one could suggest that it the industry that is most exposed to financial loss that would provide the clearest picture of things to come.
    In all cases the situation you refer to and those that are embroiled in end times scenarios associated with climate change will tell you that it is all about the future ( or lack thereof)
    It is that investment in the future that is one key index but alas this may be too broad to pin point in enough detail.
    I personally believe it is the Insurance Industry that protects investment that provides the key indicators to what you are looking for.

    This is because this sector is the one that stands to be impacted the greatest due to climate change events and investment insurance generally.


    Insurance companies specialize in risk management and assessment, I believe, and when they find the risk is too great they increase premiums or cease providing cover altogether.


    I believe, naively perhaps, that it is this aspect that may provide you with a greater degree of predictability than most others of the ultimate and sustainable collapse of world economies.
    What are you thoughts on the above?

    edit: the other indexes will no doubt fluctuate and rebound all over the place but the insurance sector will be more indicative of a lasting trend IMO
     
    Last edited: Apr 11, 2015
  21. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    Yes, you are absolutely correct that you are entitled to base a thought experiment on any starting premise you want. It just doesn't have a lot of value in a thread that is ostensibly intended to discuss the actual future prospects for oil use/availability. Similarly, I could develop a thought experiment based on the premise that I'm a genie and I have a bottle that generates unlimited oil for me. It would be only slightly less useless than yours for predicting the actual future prospects for oil, so I'm not sure why I or anyone else would bother with such a fantasy here.

    More to the point, since it isn't connected to reality, there isn't anything to win or lose by taking the "Challenge", we're finished with that.

    It is also worth noting you just put an awful lot of effort into misdirection for someone who just complained loudly about having your honesty questioned. Pro tip: when you behave dishonestly, people will remember that and assume you are being dishonest the next time there is a doubt.
    Since it has little to do with this thread, your instincts were good in starting a new thread for it. I'll address it there.
     
  22. Futilitist This so called forum is a fraud... Registered Senior Member

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    Hi Russ,

    Unfortunately for everyone, the Futilitist Collapse Challenge is very much based on reality. Sorry. You are just a sore loser. And your argument is just silly.

    The Futilitist Collapse Challenge is a simple thought experiment, to help conceptualize the dilemma. It contains three real things:
    1) The price history of oil.
    2) The rising cost of oil production (approximated by the black line).
    3) The falling oil affordability for consumers (approximated by the green line).

    The Etp model adds much more detail and support for my basic argument. The Etp model is derived from the laws of thermodynamics as applied to the life cycle of oil production. It generates exact figures for the cost of oil production and for the limit of oil affordability for consumers (numbers 2 and 3 above). It gives the physics reason why the price of oil will never be able to meet the full cost of oil production ever again. Thus, the oil industry will rapidly shrink, along with the world economy. This is all very logical. And it is already happening.

    The Etp model has everything to do with this thread. The rapid decline in the economic utility of oil, forecast by the Etp model, suggests that we will soon experience economic collapse, leading to social collapse and die-off. That is exactly what this thread is all about.

    I posted the Etp model in the physics section so that the methodology used to create it can be evaluated in detail by smart people.

    This "Apocalypse Soon?" thread is the place to talk about the startling implications of what the Etp model projects.


    ---Futilitist

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    Last edited: Apr 15, 2015
  23. Russ_Watters Not a Trump supporter... Valued Senior Member

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    You admitted that the starting premise is fantasy already. Did you change your mind?
    All of those either are or should be real data, but while the first is, the second and third are just figments of your imagination: fake data. Random, meaningless scribbles. You admitted that. You are contradicting yourself here by going back and forth saying that it is, then isn't, based on data.
    No, this thread is about your failed predictions that the world economy collapsed two years ago and we are all (or, at least, 90+% of us) already dead. The page on the ETP model doesn't say anything about economic collapse, social collapse or die-off.
     
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