Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Now that it is known that people who have the virus but are asymptomatic can infect other people, a local(minnesota) epidemiologist said that controlling the spread of the disease was much like trying to stop the wind.
(gee darn)
.............
king canute anyone?

 

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The cry today is; "Mr President , employ the military Corps of Engineers to build temporary medical facilities.

But he cannot do it, because he stole all the money from those military national security puposes to build his Mexican border wall to keep people out. Well Mr President we're not keeping the viruses out are we?

 

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I think we've known that for a while. It's all about flattening the peak and protecting the groups that are at risk, so that the health service (in countries that have one) is not overwhelmed.

 

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Hopefully a small light on the horizon. BBC NEWS
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51906604

 

OK
does "flattening the peak" alter the eventual total number of people infected?

 

Yes. If the mobile populations all get it, and then get over it, they will not get it again - and thus will no longer be able to infect isolated populations. (Which is what everyone is praying for in nursing homes for example.)

For a simple graphical example of this check out https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/world/corona-simulator/

(However, the primary goal is to spread out the peak infection rates so as to not overwhelm healthcare facilities.)

 

This is premised on historical observation of typical acquired immunity from coronavirus's however the scientists, even today, after 80 odd days since onset, have limited understanding of the details of this virus. ( Apparently)
There are reports, possibly paranoid gossip, that people have been re-infected after recovery. In China and Japan intensive research is under way to verify. ( apparently) Relapsing is on the table.

China is reporting that the virus is reemerging due to expats returning to the mainland and bringing their infection with them... Sounds reasonable enough but could also be a smoke screen used to cover up their own failure of containment and blame it on the rest of the world.
China and Iran have already accused the USA of exporting this virus to Wuhan, and so the blame game is under way and the truth is out the window.
The sheer scale of the economic damage that has occurred in China would make them desperate to restart their economy as soon as possible at any cost, including sacrificing their populations biosecurity.
I am reminded yet again that:
Desperate governments do desperate things.

 

According to my Iranian sources the Iranian Government allowed thousands of Chinese workers to return to Iran after the Chinese New Year, knowing full well that they posed a bio-security risk and did so because of the huge infrastructure investment capital coming from China. Seriously underestimating the risk.

and now they are paying a huge price for every Yuan they got.
Iran 14991 Confirmed with 853 deaths and 4590 recovered. JHU 17-03-2020 8am

 

That's possible but would be VERY VERY unusual, and counter to all our previous experiences with viruses.

 

Agree!
Absolutely unlikely.
But it is possible say the specialists:
My take is that you have probably got more chance of a meteorite landing on your left foot...

When dealing with paranoia one does not enter into highly speculative possibilities. When asked a question about possibility with extremely low probability the scientist would be better to claim

"We do not get into discussing hypothetical possibilities that have next to zero probability in public." and maintain vigilance any how.

Ideas are highly infectious and now this idea of relapse is becoming entrenched in scared peoples thinking.

It pisses me off because I now have a special needs grandchild that has locked himself in his room to self isolate and won't come out because people are dabbling in extreme low probability possibilities ( paranoia)

 

WHO SR #56 16-03-2020
Big spike in daily Global (Exc-China) growth: 17.11% with a CFR of 3.97%

The credibility of the Chinese mainland stats is really being challenged by exclusion of China stats
big time IMO
The contagion has appeared in a number of African Nations.

 

I can't imagine what Trump is going through after losing all that fairy floss he had created... lol
Seriously, Trump would have taken a big hit and would be probably wishing another more skilled, moral and visionary president like Obama was at the helm to fix the mess he has helped create.

 

Maybe those in the know would be making a fortune short selling at the expense of pension funds I expect.
I don't know but there is at least a lot of short selling and folk make money.
Traders profit from volitility.
Alex

 

He is already blaming Obama for the Nation's unpreparedness. This even after Trump dismantled the Obama era CDC pandemic preparedness measures.
The duplicity of this man has no limits whatever. Now he has placed all remedial solutions on the individual Cities and States, so that when something goes wrong, he can lay blame on their doorstep. It makes me sick at heart.

 

How airline companies can survive this time?

 

Unemployment rates during the Great Depression (1929-1930) soared to about 25%

 

What are current unemployment figures?
The real number of folk needing work is hidden.

I have been thru centre link years ago...they tried to find me a job (I was recovering and starting over due to being brought to my knees with a health issue.)...when they could not find me a job suggested retraining..I said that is crazy I can do any job here and any job offered by any shop in the street...so I was a problem..one Christmas Eve, and remember no one works Xmas Eve in the Public Service, they rang to say they had put me on the invalid pension, off the books as unemployed now, but as I tried to complain I was struck by lightning down the phone line and was unconscious for a long time...of course when I did ring back no answer as no doubt the Xmas party was in full swing.
I expect my handler saw me as a client she wanted off the unemployment line because I actually wanted a job...a trouble maker. But apparently that agency received $8500 for managing my case...mmm. It's all BS.

So I was an unemployed man that was not then recorded on the unemployment figures...as I was on onethe invalid pension .I think one day a month of casual work takes you off the list...most folk I know over 50 can not get a job...and I understand that...when I was a boss I would not employ anyone at that age...
You can bet this coming Friday many folk will be laid off...
Anyways I am going to have a sex change and apply for the widow's pension

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v

Alex

 

I’m no Trump lover but he’s doing the best he can, no one expected to be hit this hard. And he actually was working on this back in January. We all need to come together as a worldwide community and do our best to stop spreading this virus.

 

CEO of Alaska Air cut his pay to zero, and others should follow suit. Investors shouldn’t be receiving anything nor should the millionaire C-suite in any company right now, as this would definitely save jobs in their companies.

Bailing out millionaires/billionaires is ridiculous. They should forfeit their salaries and bonuses in this crisis, so they can spare jobs.

 

The USA (Trump) had plenty of time to take this virus seriously and actually put contingency plans in place if he hadn't spent so much time in denial. Don't worry just about all world leaders were caught in some state of denial, even my own government had their head in the sand.

you are right... flaming Trump isn't going to solve anything. He needs to be supported or stood down but not played with.