Presidential predictions for 2024?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Seattle, Dec 10, 2022.

  1. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    OK. This video is related to the others and the thread in general. Being, Michael Cohen, expressing views on Trump: Hitler... white supremist rhetoric... and is 58 min. long, Made me wonder how discontent and or insane the USA is, the depravity foreshadowed if Trump, is even the Republican nomination, so I just thought Id post it.


    I haven't seem much in the way of people from Trump's, inner circle expressing themselves, yet, Michael Cohen, being Trump's former lawyer, maybe has more balls than others'.

    Id Est: If Trump, becomes president again, I promise never to go to Disneyland again.
     
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  3. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    As an example of how egregious this has gotten, consider this FOX News interview in March of this year:

    Hannity: I can't imagine you ever saying, um, 'Bring me some of the boxes that we brought back from the White House, I'd like to look at them.' Did you ever do that?
    Trump: I would have the right to do that, there's nothing wrong with it.
    Hannity: I know you. I don't think you would do it.
    Trump: Well, I don't have a lot of time . . . but I would have the right to do that. I would do that.
    Hannity: Let me move on . . .

    And even after that clear attempt to keep Trump from incriminating himself, Trump eventually returned to the topic and said he had "the right to take stuff" and "the right to look at stuff."
     
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  5. Seattle Valued Senior Member

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    The actual news division at Fox is legit but that's only Brett Baier and Chris Wallace (?). Baier is the one who did the latest interview. Hannity and the rest are jokes of course.
     
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  7. Beer w/Straw Transcendental Ignorance! Valued Senior Member

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    OK, as a general rule I feel posting links with no context is bad form but, meh. There are many factors in a how I approach someone's opinion (of someone else). And the video posted is an interview; info and opinions om Donald Trump.

    In the interview, Trump's former lawyer, Michael Cohen, says:



    I can't say my opinion as that could expose some of my views of someone else

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    but whoa, Michael Cohen, goes smackdown.

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  8. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    It all depends of who is on the ballot. This early, most predictions are off by a mile. Does anyone remember Howard Dean? In 2015, everyone said that Jeb Bush had the Republican nomination locked up. The early caucuses and primaries can throw everything for a loop.

    So that being said, my guess is that the general election will be Trump vs Biden.

    I personally support DeSantis in the Republican primaries, but you said this isn't about who we like. And at this point, I think that Trump has the best chance of being nominated again.

    Biden being the democratic candidate is more questionable in my opinion. A great deal depends on his health in coming months and on how obvious his growing senile dementia is to voters. Will he reluctantly drop out? I perceive that there's huge pressure on him to do that from within his own party. If he did drop out, there would be many people trying to win the democratic nomination. The leaders there would probably be a California duo, Kamala Harris and CA governor Gavin Newsom. I'd expect Newsom to win that battle. He's good looking, well spoken and doesn't speak like a kindergarten teacher. He's good at playing the moderate, even though he isn't really.

    In the general election, if the contest is Biden vs Trump, I'd say slight advantage Trump. Many things could influence that.

    If the election is Newsom vs Trump, I'd say slight advantage Newsom.

    Only slight advantages either way, since so many voters vote the party rather than the candidate.
     
  9. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Agreed. And here's how that will play out:

    All Trump's civil trials are before the primary. So even if he loses them all (which is likely) he can claim "well they are not criminal trials so I am still not a crook. Deep state. Witch hunt. Send money." He wins the nomination.
    Then his criminal trials start. And of the 2 scheduled and 2/3 not yet scheduled he is likely to lose at least 1 of them. We will then see if a convicted felon can really win the presidency.
    At this point Trump will be desperate; the only way to avoid jail time will be to win the presidency and pardon himself. Expect to see a lot of illegality in pursuit of that end.

    Timeline below.
     

    Attached Files:

  10. Tiassa Let us not launch the boat ... Valued Senior Member

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    Once you were strong: Click for the holy spastic.

    Scientist and author David Robert Grimes↱, via Scientific American:

    Climate change confounds a central tenet of libertarian free-market views. Accepting the reality of human-mediated climate change means mitigating action should logically follow. But as free-market beliefs typically entail strong distrust of government or market regulation, climate change poses an ideological challenge. This leaves people with two distinct options: One might carefully reevaluate the boundaries of one's convictions to incorporate new information and refine their philosophy; this intellectually admirable approach is difficult and cognitively expensive work. Or there is a darker, easier alternative—simply reject the problem, and retreat into naked negation by ignoring evidence and seeking to stymy those pointing out the urgency of the issue.

    Such attempts to undermine scientific consensus to preserve belief are what psychologist Leon Festinger called motivated reasoning. As information becomes distorted through a prism of belief, it is reinterpreted to reaffirm existing values, and jettisoned if it contradicts dogma. Under the schema of motivated reasoning, even the weakest information propping up a belief becomes amplified, while strong disconfirming evidence is dismissed. To quote Paul Simon, "All lies and jest / Still the man hears what he wants to hear / And disregards the rest." On platforms like X (formerly Twitter), hashtags like #ClimateScam pour vicious invective on climate scientists, accusing them of global conspiracy. Such paranoia skirts the fact that such a hypothetical conspiracy would be virtually impossible to maintain, and speaks to desperate attempts to cling to ideology in the face of intrusive reality.

    There are other factors at play, beyond loathing of regulation, with men disproportionately in the ranks of denialists. More than this, society has become increasingly politically polarized. While Donald Trump (himself a climate denier) was not present at the debate, his shadow loomed large. As U.S. political polarization widens, Trump's legacy has thoroughly cast acceptance of climate science into a left-wing position, a form of "wokeism" to be scorned. Denial has been co-opted too by contrarian figureheads, extolled by hucksters whose entire schtick is to define themselves entirely in opposition to the mainstream. Little wonder that exemplars of this genre like Joe Rogan, Russell Brand and Jordan Peterson amplify denialism to huge audiences. Inevitably, climate change denial has been grasped at by the same conspiracy theorists who denied COVID, priding themselves as rejecting "official" narratives. Such unholy alliances of disinformation purveyors reduce our ability to take corrective action.

    To combat ideology's stranglehold on people's thinking, we must condemn performances like the Republican debate's climate cattle call for what they are: reckless and self-serving displays of ideology rejecting reality.

    This is a reality of American politics, and at some point it becomes important to recognize the contiguity within the range. Someone recently↗ wondered, "Why worry about Trump when we have James Webb out there?" and Grimes pretty much describes the answer. For instance, if other parts of American political discussion considers racism, misogyny, Christian nationalism, and othe iterations of supremacism, it is easy to think of them as other sorts of issues. But there is contiguity; the antiscientific spectrum so easily overlaps with other antihistorical narratives in large part because it is so easy, in a range of religion, superstition, and neurotically convenient projection, for diverse fantasies to find common cause by their shared identity against something; the larger attribute is an underlying antisociality.

    It's one thing, for instance, if we coniser Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis in relation to the magagaga, but we should also remember U.S. Sen. Rick Scott, formerly governor of Florida. It's basic politics, of couse, to point out that Floridians elected the guy who got away with massive Medicare fraud, but his administration was also notorious for suppressing state scientists in re environmental issues. The ongoing DeSantis culture war against science and education is inextricably bound to the culture war against history, women, nonwhites, homosexuals, transgender, and parts of speech.

    The melodramatic description is that reality does not agree with their fancy, so they now reject the underlying social contract, "define themselves entirely in opposition to the mainstream". More subtle ways of putting it simply use more words to reduce the average impact per word, but the nearly dualistic pretense is entirely the produce of such identifications against what does not suit their fancy.

    Vis à vis the GOP 2024 presidential nomination, the Republican prospect actually looks dangerous to American society and the human endeavor.
    ____________________

    Notes:

    Grimes, David Robert. "Republican Presidential Candidates Vow to Fiddle as Earth Burns". Scientific American. 1 September 2023. ScientificAmerican.com. 6 September 2023. https://bit.ly/45CuX2Q
     
  11. Pinball1970 Registered Senior Member

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    I'm a Brit so on the whole I want a democrat.
    This does not mean I would automatically vote labour here.
     
  12. sculptor Valued Senior Member

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    Why?
     
  13. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Because modern US Republicans are so far to the right of any serious UK political party - and that's not even counting the current perversion of Republicans by the hideous Trump personality cult.
     
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  14. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Yep. In most other western countries a democrat would be a centrist, even a bit to the right of the majority of politicians in those countries.
     
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  15. Pinball1970 Registered Senior Member

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    Trump aside (which has its own issues)

    What are the big Republican points?
    Prolife, pro guns and pro religion which often means anti science.
    In terms of the climate this is where the climate change deniers are likely to be.
    This is where the teaching of creationism in science class advocates are likely be .
    This is where the anti LGBT are likely to be.

    So, in terms of ideology this is pretty much the opposite of where I am and where the UK is.

    Both parties here are pro climate, supportive of LGBT, women’s rights, prochoice and Christianity is declining so not really an issue.
    We do not have guns and probably will never have them and I can see no party ever supporting the sort of gun laws America has.
    In terms of the Economy, Education, immigration domestic and international security is where our parties differ.

    Some of the aims are the same but ways of getting there are different.
     
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  16. origin Heading towards oblivion Valued Senior Member

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    I just can't understand how anyone with any sense could vote for Trump. Most if not all of my friends are republicans and I refuse to even broach the subject of politics with them. I don't know if they support Trump or not but if we discussed politics and they made excuses for supporting Trump I would lose all respect for them, so I just prefer not to know. It is a bizarre dynamic that I would never have guessed would happen. I have never really cared if my friends were republican or democrat because the bottom line is that the differences between the 2 parties didn't use to be that big and we all had the country's best interest at heart. Trump clearly does not care about the country, Trump cares about Trump.
     
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  17. origin Heading towards oblivion Valued Senior Member

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    I think if Trump were to be elected president he would pardon all of the Jan 6 criminals. That would be a clear signal to the American public that anything goes as long as you are a Trump supporter. That is a terrifying prospect and one that I would never have guessed could happen. I guess I'm naïve.
     
  18. Janus58 Valued Senior Member

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    I have a niece and a cousin who fell down the Trump rabbit hole. I remember my niece, after the first Covid briefing, gushing about how proud she was of how he did during it, and "pointing out" that he didn't once mention his re-election campaign.
    All I could think was that you had to set the bar pretty low to praise someone for not doing something that would have been highly inappropriate.
     
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  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    ?? Trump will hurt the right people. That's all they really care about - who they can harm and thus become superior to.
     
  20. Pinball1970 Registered Senior Member

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    If you look at some high profile UK resignations like Boris Johnson, Matt Hancock, Sunak Sajid Javid (and others) Van tam, Lizz Truss there was a certain amount of shame involved.

    They either messed up broke the rules and resigned in shame or guys like Sunak, Javid and Van Tam resigned as they did not want to be associated the sleaze.

    Truss resigned because she accidently nearly bankrupted the country.

    Matt Hancock’s specific crime was he was caught kissing a colleague on CCTV when he should have been isolating.

    Trump initiated incited insurrection which led to a coup d’état against the United states, Four indictments with a trial set for 2024 and he is still in the running how does that happen?
     
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  21. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Neither he nor his supporters really care about things like integrity, honor or honesty. This isn't new; history is full of examples of despots who don't care about anything other than their own power.
     
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  22. Pinball1970 Registered Senior Member

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    As an outsider, this is bad for hard working American citizens. One of the fatalities from January 6th was a US air force vet. She was mislead went there for what? She was shot by security for all the world to see. Our common enemies of freedom, justice and enlightened modern civilization must have been ringing their hands.

    Biden seems weak but he is 100 x the man Trump is.
    There is a quote regarding the Vet who was a republican candidate with that idiot Palin. McCain?
    He was captured in the late 1960s by VC and was beaten and regularly tortured. Released after two years.
    Trump said something along the lines of " I respect the vets who were not captured."
    This was from his own party candidate.
    That says a lot about the man, an absolutely despicable human being.
     
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  23. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    It is only possible because a large group of Americans is willing to believe in multiple conspiracy theories made of "alternative facts" (i.e. lies). Trump fuels those conspiracy theories. Also, I think that some people just want the strong man - somebody to tell them what to do, rather than having to think for themselves. Trump offers them most simplistic answers to difficult questions. Of course, he makes lots of promise he knows he can't keep, and lots of other promises he must know will produce net harm to Americans, but he doesn't care about the people who vote for him - never has. They are only useful to him insofar as they are willing to cede their power to him.

    By most objective measures, Trump was a terrible President the first time. He will be a lot worse if he gets another crack at it.

    While the majority of Republican voters are in a bubble of false news, and while Trump will almost certainly be the Republican nominee for the Presidency, it is the independents that he will have to convince to get himself re-elected. At present, he's not making much progress on that front. But, then again, independents are often not as politically engaged, so it might be possible to bring enough of them around with empty rhetoric and some more well-targeted lies.
     
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