Will UK brexit on 29 March 2019?

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Saint, Mar 23, 2019.

  1. mathman Valued Senior Member

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    I saw an estimate that a new referendum would end up with about 55% voting to remain.
     
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  3. geordief Valued Senior Member

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    Where did you see that?
     
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  5. Sarkus Hippomonstrosesquippedalo phobe Valued Senior Member

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    I heard recently someone describing her as having as much authority as a "do not tumble dry" label.

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  7. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Tim Martin is talking out of his arse. The EU will not materially alter the Withdrawal deal. They can't, unless Ireland caves in on the backstop, which I do not believe they will. Ireland has had four centuries of being kicked around by Britain. Now that they have the big boys of the EU behind them, it is their best chance to free themselves from British dominance. I think they will tough it out, even if a hard border has to be put up as a result of a no deal stand-off.

    But in any case, for all the tough talk of a no deal exit, how will any PM get that through Parliament? Any attempt to do so will bring about a vote of no confidence, which will be lost. It only takes a handful of Tories - 4 I believe - to vote down their own government, and they will do it. So then we will be into a general election, which the Tories will lose. And that will probably be the end of Brexit altogether - and of the Tory party too. Hunt has been trying to explain this to readers of the Torygraph. He talks of the "extinction" of the Tories in that scenario.

    Bozo, if it should be him, can bluster all he likes but he cannot change the arithmetic of Parliament, any more than May could.
     
  8. mathman Valued Senior Member

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    On line - BBC and Manchester Guardian
     
  9. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    Yougov has a new poll out on Westminster voting intention.

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    Things I note:

    Instead of two major parties, there seem to be four.

    Unlike earlier polls, Labour isn't in the lead, the Lib-Dems are. My guess is that non-Marxists are defecting en-masse from Labour to the Lib-Dems in order to escape Jeremy Corbyn.

    I suspect that the Jeremy Corbyn factor is hitting Brexit and the Conservatives too. Brexit's percentage in this poll is some 10% below the number that recently voted Brexit in the European election and the Conservatives are 10% higher. My guess is that most of these are voters who support Brexit but feel that the Conservatives are the only party that can stop Corbyn.

    But that would just split the anti-Corbyn vote between Brexit and the Conservatives. If Brexit can convince the 10% that voted for them in the recent European election not to return to the Conservatives, they will be on stronger ground. Brexit's 'against the posh London elites' populism will probably continue to attract many of the more traditional Labour voters too.

    The same problem of divisiveness afflicts the remain side. If they split between the Liberal Dems, part of Labour, the squishy establishment Conservatives, the Greens and Change-UK, they will just weaken themselves.

    Which provides context for the current Conservative leadership scramble. Naming a pro-brexit politician with a bit of a populist edge might just split the leave vote between Brexit and the Conservatives, since they would be competing for the same voter. On the other hand, an establishment-pedigree remain-supporting hack in an expensive suit might position the Conservatives in a very different space, as just another of the jostling crowd competing with the Liberal Democrats for the remaining voters.

    It's starting to look like a watershed moment.
     
    Last edited: May 31, 2019
  10. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    LOL !
    panhandling patriarchal conservatives ?
     
    Last edited: Jun 1, 2019
  11. exchemist Valued Senior Member

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    Yes it is a very interesting poll. However one needs to remember that the Brexit Betrayal Party is a single-issue vehicle, with no position or credibility on the domestic policy issues facing an actual government, so it is not surprising they have dropped relative to their EU election result. In fact, both their continued strength, in spite of this lack, and the strength of the Lib Dems, show that even on a domestic agenda Brexit now looms very large in the minds of the electorate. Before the referendum sensitised the country to the issue, the EU was nowhere on the radar for most voters. Now, it is crucial.

    Re Labour, the related polling, in this exercise, on who people think suitable to be prime minister shows that far more people consider the widely despised, outgoing May to be PM material than think Corbyn would be any good. Only 15% of people think he would make a good PM. That is really important in a general election. I think this shows that Labour will not get a majority in the next general election, regardless of how they may adapt their policy on Brexit. The man himself is a fatal liability. I think the most likely outcome will be a hung parliament, in which centrist/left of centre parties have a combined majority. Don't forget the SNP now gets most of the votes in Scotland, as well, depriving Labour of a traditional reservoir of support.

    Perhaps we will need more coalition politics in future. I think that would be a good thing, given the flight to the extremes by both the old established parties.
     
  12. Beaconator Registered Senior Member

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    I'm waiting for the brexit luncheon dinner.

    Its the dinner after brexit which serves thinly sliced meats with crackers.
     
  13. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    donald has a crush on borris now
     
  14. Yazata Valued Senior Member

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    New poll out:

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    Britain definitely seems to be trending away from its historical two-party system towards being a more European-style multi-party system.

    There are now four front-running parties.

    After appearing on the ropes a while back, the Conservatives have rebounded back into first place (barely). It's apparently the prospect of the deeply unpopular (even among Conservative voters) Theresa May stepping down that's lured some of the traditional Conservative voters who had bailed back to the party. But 47% of the Conservative party's 2017 voters still say that they will vote for a different party this time. 38% of these 2017 voters have gone to the Brexit party and 6% to the Liberal Dems.

    That would be disastrous for the Conservatives were it not for Labour being even worse off. 57% of their 2017 voters say that they will vote for a different party this time, with 28% going to the Liberal Democrats, 15% to the Greens and 10% to the Brexit party. If the Conservatives unload Theresa May before the next election and select a more inspiriting leader, Labour will be at a serious disadvantage led by Jeremy Corbyn.

    And my guess is that a general election is coming soon, in November or December 2019 or so. If Bojo (or whoever) pushes a clean Brexit in October, Remainer members of his Conservative Parliamentary party are vowing to vote to bring down his government. And if Brexit doesn't happen in October, the Conservative Brexiteers in Parliament promise to do the same. A couple of dozen of them threaten to defect to the Brexit party.

    So it looks like the government will collapse either way, around October 31 (Happy Holloween!) and new election will have to take place.

    If the Conservative government falls because it delivered Brexit, then it's likely that the Brexit party will be cooperative and will try to form a Brexiteer alliance with the Leave-leaning Conservatives, agreeing not to contest many of their seats so as not to split the vote. And if meanwhile, Labour and the Liberal Democrats split the Remain vote, they will likely be decimated in Parliament.

    But, if the government falls because it didn't deliver, the Brexit party will likely go head-to-head with the Conservatives. That might conceivably result in a highly fractured Parliament. It's unclear to me who would win a plurality of seats and get the first nod to form a government. But a coalition government would seem to be unavoidable. Brexit/Conservative or Labour/L-D would be my guess.
     
  15. RainbowSingularity Valued Senior Member

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    Stockholm syndrome
     

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