Events in Syria and Iraq Thread #2
- Thread starter Yazata
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Schmelzer
Valued Senior Member
So, the road to Aleppo is cleared now from Daesh. https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...al-supply-route-to-aleppo-after-routing-isis/ One week this time. If they need yet more time to open it for civilians I don't know.
Anyway, it seems, the Syrian army has to work a little bit to make the road safer, extending the security zone around it or so.
Anyway, it seems, the Syrian army has to work a little bit to make the road safer, extending the security zone around it or so.
Yazata
Valued Senior Member
It looks like the Islamic State took some villages in the hills overlooking the road to Aleppo near Khanasser several days ago, but have subsequently been driven out again by a Syrian army counterattack.
http://www.edmaps.com/html/khanasser_march_9.html
http://www.edmaps.com/html/khanasser_march_9.html
Schmelzer
Valued Senior Member
They were probably under Daesh control during the fight for the Khanaser road. Then, the first job was to secure the road itself. When this was finished, it was time to clear the environment. Now they have been cleared from Daesh.
The gains last week look more like confusion about who has had control among those who make such maps than about real fights on the ground. At least I have not heard about a large scal Dash offensive taking several villages. Have you?
The gains last week look more like confusion about who has had control among those who make such maps than about real fights on the ground. At least I have not heard about a large scal Dash offensive taking several villages. Have you?
Funny, no one has mentioned, Mother Russia is now withdrawing Russian troops from Syria even though the terrorists it claimed to be fighting remain intact.
Schmelzer
Valued Senior Member
The fight against the terrorists continues. Because the withdrawal is only a partial one. 2/3 or so.
In fact, there was, some time ago, I think around the time of the offensive against the jihadi highway, a serious increase of the airforce, with participation of long range bombers coming from Russia. It looks like this increase of the airforce is no longer necessary, given the ceasefire, and travels home.
In fact, there was, some time ago, I think around the time of the offensive against the jihadi highway, a serious increase of the airforce, with participation of long range bombers coming from Russia. It looks like this increase of the airforce is no longer necessary, given the ceasefire, and travels home.
Yazata
Valued Senior Member
News reports are saying that the Syrian army, supported by Russian air strikes, have entered the ISIS controlled town of Palmyra, famous for its extensive Roman-era ruins.
Yesterday they were clearing an area just west of town called the 'triangle' (from three roads that meet there) after finding it infested with IEDs. They were also attacking ISIS positions on high-points in the hills nearby. Video from embedded Syrian reporters shows light artillery in use and helicopters and jets flying over the hills.
Today they have reportedly captured an area with several hotels (Palmyra was a tourist destination before the Syrian civil war) and have entered the western residential outskirts of the town. They may (or may not) have secured the ruins themselves.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/03/24/syrian-troops-advance-on-ancient-isis-held-city-palmyra.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35888723
Yesterday they were clearing an area just west of town called the 'triangle' (from three roads that meet there) after finding it infested with IEDs. They were also attacking ISIS positions on high-points in the hills nearby. Video from embedded Syrian reporters shows light artillery in use and helicopters and jets flying over the hills.
Today they have reportedly captured an area with several hotels (Palmyra was a tourist destination before the Syrian civil war) and have entered the western residential outskirts of the town. They may (or may not) have secured the ruins themselves.
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2016/03/24/syrian-troops-advance-on-ancient-isis-held-city-palmyra.html
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-35888723
Putin said he was withdrawing everything but "support staff" and Mother Russia has long had "support staff" in Syria. As previously pointed out to you, in the future, Mother Russia may not be able to send "long range bombers" or bombers of any sort, because in order to do so it would need to traverse foreign airspace and it would need permission do to so. That permission may not be forthcoming. Mother Russia has pissed off a number of countries since first intervening to defend Assad's regime (e.g. Turkey).
Russia can still get supplies in through Iran and Iraq (I'm still baffled as to why the US continues to assist the latter despite their backstabbing and ethnic cleansing). Would be wonderful all the same to see the Bosphorus closed to Russian shipping just to tighten the screws a little more.
As I've been saying, what matters is that the moderate rebels hold out until Russia runs out of cash over the next year or so, and then the real negotiations can begin on a real democratic transition. There should be meaningful consequences and a US-backed escalation this time if Putin loses patience and unilaterally decides to break the ceasefire.
Maybe it can and maybe it can't. Things are a changing in both Iran and Iraq and those changes don't favor Mother Russia.
I think you are correct. Mother Russia is running out of money. Mother Russia has over stretched its military forces. It's economy is crumbling, and I think those are the real reasons for Mother Russia's sudden withdrawal. Mother Putin has been operating under the mistaken belief that Syria's woes can be solved militarily. Syria needs a political solution, not a military solution. It's not like Syria doesn't have enough weapons and people to use them.
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Schmelzer
Valued Senior Member
Sounds like you use unreliable sources. The RuAF continues to bomb, now with focus on Palmyra and Deir Ezzor.
Not really. The foreign currency reserves are increasing, oil prices are also fine near 40\$.
Fine that you claim now what Putin has said from the start.
The aim of the bombing was to switch the direction - from Assad retreating and losing to Assad attacking and winning. Done. And the aim was, after this, to force the other side to start negotiations. Initially, nobody wanted to negotiate at all, Assad has to go, end of discussion. Now some sufficiently large part has accepted a ceasefire and starts to negotiate. Done. The airforce is yet there, is sufficiently strong to fight Daesh, and, if necessary, to fight those who break the ceasefire. They know what they have to expect if they break the ceasefire, so, they will think twice.
Well, your response isn't' surprising given you think anything the Mother Putin says is God sent and you ignore evidence which isn't consistent with Putin's propaganda.
Yeah, really.
"Only one month in and 2016 has already delivered a series of devastating economic blows to Russia. As the price of oil and the value of the ruble plummet, so, too, does the standard of living of the average Russian citizen. Russia’s central bank has been widely praised for not spending the country’s hard-currency reserves to support the ruble — an admittedly losing proposition — yet it has done so on the backs of the Russian people.
The public has responded stoically and largely without panic, even as they see their middle-class aspirations crash. But a whiff of desperation can now be sensed, and it is the Kremlin that appears the most perplexed about what the next steps it should take.
President Vladimir Putin has gone so far as to blame Soviet Union founder Vladimir Lenin for Russia’s current difficulties. Historical scapegoats, however, do not relieve Putin and his government of responsibility for Russia’s financial mess. As the economic temperature rises, Moscow will likely find itself under increased pressure to re-examine both its domestic policies and its foreign adventures." Reuters
http://blogs.reuters.com/great-deba...anic-in-the-kremlin-as-economy-sinks-further/
So contrary to the assertions Mother Putin made when he sent Russian troops into Syria, and your previous assertions, Putin sent troops into Syria to prop up the Assad regime and not to fight terrorists. Well, that's a sudden about face, but a welcome one.
Schmelzer
Valued Senior Member
Progress around Palmyra continues, now the castle has been taken.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/field-report-syrian-army-retakes-palmyra-castle-map-update/
Not that this would be very important, Russia would survive even if oil goes down to zero, once it moves now in the other direction it is nice but also not decisive. Once the big crisis starts, one has to expect a race for lowering the value of the own currency, to save the own export industry, so a high ruble may be even a greater problem in this race than a lower one. But this is irrelevant anyway, because it is big enough to handle the woldwide overproduction crisis internally. Your and Reuters' dreams of a collapse of the Russian economy remain dreams.
https://www.almasdarnews.com/article/field-report-syrian-army-retakes-palmyra-castle-map-update/
Wake up, we have March. Look for the performance of the oil price at http://moneyweek.com/prices-news-charts/oil/ and for the ruble at http://www.xe.com/de/currencycharts/?from=RUB&to=USD&view=1Y and Russian currency reserves at http://www.cbr.ru/eng/hd_base/default.aspx?Prtid=mrrf_m
Not that this would be very important, Russia would survive even if oil goes down to zero, once it moves now in the other direction it is nice but also not decisive. Once the big crisis starts, one has to expect a race for lowering the value of the own currency, to save the own export industry, so a high ruble may be even a greater problem in this race than a lower one. But this is irrelevant anyway, because it is big enough to handle the woldwide overproduction crisis internally. Your and Reuters' dreams of a collapse of the Russian economy remain dreams.
LOL...still citing Assad's state controlled media I see.
A couple of things, first, I didn't write that. You quoted my reference which was written and published just last month. That's pretty damn current. The unfortunate fact for you is Mother Russia's economy is in dire straits. The recent mild recovery in oil prices isn't a get out of jail free card for Mother Russia. It doesn't solve Russia's deep economic woes. As previously pointed out to you Mother Russia isn't paying some of its employees. Whither you want to admit it or not, and obviously you don't, Mother Russia is in deep economic trouble.
Well, it isn't a dream. It's a fact. Mother Russia's economy is in crisis as elucidated in the Reuters article. And while you dismiss reality, most people don't. Putin's recent and sudden pullback from Syria is just the latest example of how deep Russia's economic woes run.
Yeah, you are the guy the black knight. The guy who denies everything even when it is so blatantly obvious. Mother Russia is heavily dependent on oil and natural gas, per previous references. Oil and natural gas account for more than half of Mother Russia's meager exports. Oil and natural gas revenues fund the Russian government. So do you really think the Russian government can operate without money? I suppose the Russian government could go back to the good old days of slave labor - it's not that far off from current practices. It's not paying all of its employees.
While Mother Russia is in retreat, US special forces have killed the ISIS number two man, it's finance minister. Two weeks ago US special forces captured ISIS's chemical weapons chief, can the ISIS leader be far behind? http://www.cnn.com/2016/03/25/politics/isis-no-2-in-command-killed-u-s-believes/index.html
http://abcnews.go.com/International...tured-us-special-operations/story?id=37519360
http://abcnews.go.com/International...tured-us-special-operations/story?id=37519360
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Schmelzer
Valued Senior Member
Why should I care what is "damn current" for you? You were so stupid to quote it yesterday, and yesterday it was pretty much outdated.
Yes, a "mild recovery", after the "devastating economic blows", so that, as a result, the oil price as well as the ruble are now higher than at the beginning of the year. ;-)
Yeah, I've noticed. You have a penchant for ignoring clear and present facts. The fact is my reference is current. As pointed out to you, it was written and published last month. That's only a few weeks ago.
Well Schmelzer, two weeks does not a trend make. Prices go up and prices go down. It doesn't change the long term prospect for oil prices. Oil prices have recovered from their recent lows largely based on speculation that oil producers will reduce production to stabilize prices. It doesn't change the long term oil picture. If oil prices go higher, all that US production comes back on line. And US oil producers are prohibited by law from colluding to fix prices. The US will not collude to fix oil prices and the US is the world's largest oil producer. Mother Russia is still in deep economic doo-doo.
Contrary to your assertion, Mother Russia is heavily dependent upon oil prices. Oil prices will not be as high as mother Russia needs them to be.
Yazata
Valued Senior Member
I was going to make a post about that, but you beat me to it. The castle is a major historical site in its own right, the most important early Islamic period structure in the area. It overlooks the ancient Roman-era ruins, and ISIS/Daesh were apparently using it as a strong point ensuring that they had some control over the ruins' fate. That's the castle on the hill in the background in the photo below. The new town of Palmyra isn't much farther away, in the other direction. The castle overlooks it too.
Apparently the Syrians are attacking the modern town of Palmyra from several directions and have cut the road connecting it to the rest of ISIS territory.
The Russian defense ministry says that they have flown 41 sorties over Palmyra from Tuesday through Thursday. I have no reason to doubt that, since their jets have been seen and filmed in action over the town. 41 sorties in three days wouldn't take a lot of planes. 14 planes making one sortie per day could do it. My belief is that the Russians had about 50 jets at their air base before the recent pull-back, and at least 20 are left.
I have to wonder why the Russophiles haven't reported the fact that US special forces have killed or captured 2 senior ISIS leaders this month.I was going to make a post about that, but you beat me to it. The castle is a major historical site in its own right, the most important early Islamic period structure in the area. It overlooks the ancient Roman-era ruins, and ISIS/Daesh were apparently using it as a strong point ensuring that they had some control over the ruins' fate. That's the castle on the hill in the background in the photo below. The new town of Palmyra isn't much farther away, in the other direction. The castle overlooks it too.
Apparently the Syrians are attacking the modern town of Palmyra from several directions and have cut the road connecting it to the rest of ISIS territory.
The Russian defense ministry says that they have flown 41 sorties over Palmyra from Tuesday through Thursday. I have no reason to doubt that, since their jets have been seen and filmed in action over the town. 41 sorties in three days wouldn't take a lot of planes. 14 planes making one sortie per day could do it. My belief is that the Russians had about 50 jets at their air base before the recent pull-back, and at least 20 are left.
And failed to report Russia's announced withdrawal from Syria...hmm. Those are the most important developments in Syria..
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Schmelzer
Valued Senior Member
February 4, 2016. That's formally indeed "last month". But your "two weeks" are an obvious lie, the 4. February is now 7 weeks ago. The low of oil as well as the ruble was even before, in January.
So, address your "two weeks does not a trend make" to your beloved Reuters, which made a news about something which happened during the first three weeks of the year. "Only one month in and 2016 has already delivered a series of devastating economic blows to Russia." to quote your beloved high quality source.
There is some dependence upon oil prices, but heavily? It is a large part of the export, but much less in terms of GNP, which is what really matters for the people. Because it is heavily taxed, it is an even larger part of the income of the state. Fine, the state sector is anyway too large and deserves some reduction.
That's easy. Reports of killed leaders of the other side are the most unreliable claims in wartime, so I do not report them. It does not matter from which side. I do not know who is the actual leader in false death claims, with Givi (a Novorussian rebel leader) and Omar Al Shishany (Chechen, Nr. 2 in Daesh) being the contenders, above have double digit counts. I would be ready for an exception if 1.) the death is confirmed by the other side and 2.) were is wide agreement in the media about the importance of this guy. Like this Alloush from East Gouta killed by the Syrian army, or this Palestinian leader (name forgotten) killed by the Israel airforce in Syria.
Hey, even more progress, Brigade 550 and the airport taken .... https://www.almasdarnews.com/articl...s-palmyra-airbase-blitz-offensive-map-update/
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