Corona Virus 2019-nCoV

Discussion in 'World Events' started by Quantum Quack, Jan 29, 2020.

  1. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    .
    In the US the variation in death rate is between different States and (within States) counties. It tracks vaccination and masking rates (as well as various medical care proxies such as childbirth mortality, political Party allegiance, education, income, and of course race).

    The US is undercounting Covid death rates by something on the order of 20%, depending mostly on State, btw - a factor to consider when comparing different countries: what are their criteria for a Covid death, and how reliable are their stats?

    ("Science" magazine has research reports addressing those factors, in June and July issues particularly).
     
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  3. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    With out suggesting for a moment that this is the answer to your question, I believe Government motivation also has a lot to do with the figures.
    For example:
    At the moment the Australian Government(s) are on a massive drive to :
    1/ Justify the severity of the lock downs currently imposed on two of the more populous states NSW and Victoria.
    2/ By "legitimately" reporting accurate data that would normally be deflated (As opposed to conflated) to avoid accusations of incompetence, in a way that encourages rapid vaccination in the population. It is worth adding that there would be a huge risk if they actually conflated the data, as the AMA and other bodies are heavily invested in the accuracy of all reporting. One could assume that the data reported would be at least close to the true picture.
    The Australian government(s) are motivated to avoid covering up the extent of the pandemic in the nation, yet have to ensure they do not embellish the data too much to avoid being caught attempting to manipulate the population into compliance..Maintaining trust in Government at the moment is very important
    Also it is worth noting that the Australia testing regimes are possibly not as thorough leading to a skewed Confirmed Case (low) to Death Ratio.(high)

    The other thing to consider is that the actual cause of death and the official cause of death may be inconsistent.
     
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  5. arfa brane call me arf Valued Senior Member

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    Humans are good at seeing patterns in the data. That's why the JH map here: https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html isn't just a list of totals, it's why graphs are plotted with a weekly basis, a big picture spanning 2020-2021 of changes in the statistics, and on a daily, 28-day basis as well, which is looking at the delta outbreak since it's now the dominant strain.

    Generally, the poorer the country, the less robust the vaccination rate and death rates are up over the last 28 days. Some countries have got more than 50% uptake and seem to be coping better despite seeing more case numbers; so increasing uptake over the same period suggests a downturn in cases is ahead.

    Unfortunately increasing dosage rates isn't something every country can do, so some countries will be labs for the delta variant to evolve in.
     
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  7. arfa brane call me arf Valued Senior Member

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    With the novel coronavirus, whether it infects you depends on whether you share air with someone who has been infected long enough to be exhaling virus particles.

    It's common sense that you would want to cover your nose and mouth to reduce the risk; eventually it's going to get through though, one day. It's here and it's going to hang around anywhere it can.

    So vaccines make a lot of sense too.
    With the US, there was a good uptake at first, ramping up nicely but then falling at about the same rate; the uptake has started to go back up but perhaps there would be fewer deaths and case numbers, patients in hospitals etc, if the uptake had been more, er, robust.

    But I'm not an epidemiologist here, I'm just commenting on some patterns in medical data. I'd get out more but, you know.
     
  8. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    Estimate: failure to survey, mask, and control travel is almost completely responsible for the inability of the US to detect, trace, treat, and quarantine in anticipation of a vaccine. That means at least 3/4 of all Covid infections in the US were preventable by established procedures for handling this kind of viral outbreak: or between half a million and a million unnecessary and preventable deaths, a concomitant number of unnecessary and preventable hospitalizations, and very likely a much more normal way of life months ago rather than years in the future.
    The main takeaway from epidemiology (beyond the common sense of curbing the spread by simple means readily available) would be that contagions like this one boom and bust on their own - they spread in waves. That means when they ebb the virus is probably not going away and allowing us to relax - on the contrary: that's the time to redouble the response, bear down on the detect, trace, quarantine, and treat routine.

    Kick the thing while it's down.
     
  9. candy Valued Senior Member

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    One of the problems is that covid was in the USA before we knew it. I am living proof that it was here Jan 3 2020. Since I did not have the flu it was assumed to be a severe cold. When it made the news here I was terrified I would get it because I could not fully recover from that "cold" and I am supposedly in a few high risk groups. I suspect there was a lot of transmission of covid in the population before mitigation measures were undertaken. That some people refused to participate in mitigation made it worse than it could have been. Why we were not told the truth about when it reached USA is something that should be investigated so it never happens again.
     
  10. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    When did you get the antibody test?
     
  11. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Denmark has just announced the end of any covid restrictions on it's population of approximately 5,816,515 people.

    "However, the face mask or shield are still mandatory at airports and people are advised to wear one when at the doctor's, test centers or hospitals. Distancing is still recommended and strict entry restrictions still apply for non Danes at the borders. The outbreak is still considered "an ordinary dangerous illness."
    More than 80% above 12yo have had two shot vaccinations.
    re: https://www.npr.org/2021/09/10/1036136246/covid-denmark-eu-restrictions
    Currently the stats are:
    557 confirmed cases yesterday
    004 Fatalities yesterday
    8725 active cases
    029 critical

    re: worldometers
    >>
    It will be interesting to see how they go after allowing nightclubs to operate with out restriction and whether or not we see a significant spike in infections etc...
    I wish them the best...
     
  12. James R Just this guy, you know? Staff Member

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    If the coronavirus follows the evolutionary path that such viruses often take, it will most likely evolve to produce less serious illness over time, on average.

    For comparison, influenza never went away, but we haven't had a deadly flu pandemic for a century. Which isn't to say that people don't still die of the flu.

    From a virus's point of view, it is not very useful to kill off all your potential hosts quickly. No hosts, no virus.
     
  13. arfa brane call me arf Valued Senior Member

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    My understanding of being vaccinated twice with the Pfizer inoculant, means the first time isn't enough to evoke a strong immune response.

    The first dose means B cells are generated which are primed to detect the antigen, but these only live a few months. The second exposure means those B cells signal the immune system and a larger response follows, and the immune system remains in this primed state. But statistics on how long we have immunity -or B cell memory- is still what we need to have.

    Even if you have been dosed fully and have the best defense, you can still be infected, and you have a chance of getting sick enough to end up in hospital, the older you are the higher that is, and once your country decides to let it rip, you will be exposed as certainly as you are at risk from catching a cold.
     
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  14. pjdude1219 The biscuit has risen Valued Senior Member

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    we've seen some stuff that suggest its not following that path though. the delta variant is much more transmissible with out losing any virulence. in may actually have become worse in that regard. there is still enough of an anti vax movement in places that makes a nightmare scenario of a variant with the transmissibility of delta and the virulence of mers a unlikely but distinctly possible event. people forget sars and mers are still floating around and are very closely related. i hope it does start following that pattern or the mutational meltdown that some scientist are suggesting where it mutates itself to no longer being able to infect us. the spanish flu went 3 years. we may not be in the back 9 yet.
     
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  15. iceaura Valued Senior Member

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    30,994
    Step one: Quit voting for Republicans, for any office anywhere.

    When that has cleared the pipes, you will be able to investigate things like when and why the US cut back on its defenses and preparations and advance warning setups - especially regarding China, long known for the frequency of its new strains of flu and the like.

    Side comment: many Americans were "told the truth" about it before January of 2020. The vulnerability of the US to a respiratory plague was a common feature in lots of political discussions as well as scientific and pop science outlets.
     
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  16. candy Valued Senior Member

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    The antibody test became available in March but with the state going to shut down it seemed prudent to wait to satisfy my curiosity even if it might mean that the antibodies would disappear rather than risk that it had not been covid and get covid as a result of going to the testing site. It still worked at the end of June. It seems the antibodies do last.
     
  17. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    When will we have drugs to kill the virus?
    Oral drugs.
     
  18. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Good point and provides some potential light at the end of the covid tunnel.

    As a matter of interest, while doing research into the 1918 Spanish flu, it seems that the flu pandemic may have been a significant factor in ending the first world war and the end of the war meant that the main carriers of the flu, that being soldiers (allies) were not being sent around the globe as a part of the war effort. I found it quite ironic that the flu virus may have forced the eventual Nov. 1918 Armistice.
    Certainly none of the same scale as 1918.
     
  19. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Remdesivir and baricitinib both work a little. But both are IV drugs.

    Why the focus on oral drugs? Is this another manifestation of the "just take a pill for everything" mentality?
     
  20. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    Unfortunately so far it has done the opposite.

    Keep in mind that a disease strain that is exactly as deadly as the previous strain, just a lot more infectious, will win in terms of evolution. (And in fact we've seen that happen.)
     
  21. Saint Valued Senior Member

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    Why UK does not recognize Sinovac vaccine?
     
  22. billvon Valued Senior Member

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    They do recognize it - it's just not approved for use.

    Every country has their own standards and their own regulatory boards. They will not all agree on drug approvals.
     
  23. Quantum Quack Life's a tease... Valued Senior Member

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    Just a follow up if any one is interested.
    Test case: Denmark. (pop=5.8m)
    DW news report ( English language, 12 minutes)
    18th September 2021.
    Denmark has removed all covid social restrictions ( except airports and border controls )
     

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